Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

so, uuhh, when's the annual shareholder meeting?.........last year it was May 16th....exciting times!....

Maybe they could move it up 12 days sooner...

 

[Knightshade]

Many people asked why Commander Ryker chose to stay as number one for so many years, when it was clearly overdue for a captain's chair of his own. While Admiral Ryker was responsible for many innovations, most notably the three engine Enterprise - E, his best work will always be remembered as the time when he was "number one".

Let's not talk about Ryker's runin with the Q, and don't even start about Thomas Ryker. "All Good Things...". I hope this helps.

I know you're Canadian, but it's spelled Riker

Also the 3 engine enterprise was a refit of the D, not the E... and never ended up existing in the prime timeline since Picard changed it.... the E was a Sovereign class ship that Riker did not design, or even captain, and still only had 2 nacelles.

 

[2daMoon]

It's called "Foundation Series" because with what they are charging you could start your own foundation.

But seriously, I always took it to just mean "starting point".

"Foundation Series"

That is the nice way to say "early-adopter" and all reservation holders should thank them for paying extra to work out the bugs that every new vehicle will have early in the production cycle.

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779949813431165416

This rumor again.

I must admit, if this turns out to be true and the Model 2 is indeed "scrapped" then it could possibly also explain why Drew and Rohan left so abruptly. They might not agree with this course correction, just like how Franz and Lars didn't agree with it when they both talked Elon out of it years ago.

Of course I'm just theorycrafting here, none of us truly knows what's going on. Its possible Drew and Rohan really do just want to spend more time with their families, and its possible their simultaneous leaving is just a huge coincidence.

I'm not so sure though, there is a lot of FUD going on right now and a lot of it oddly converges neatly. Now with layoffs and higher ups leaving and things are really starting to get strange.

I hope Drew and Rohan did leave for family time only, I hope the Model 2 is still happening, I hope the layoffs are just the normal yearly Tesla workforce trimming.

I will admit though, I'm starting to get a bit worried. TSLA holders might be in for a rough ride over the next couple of years. Or we might get super filthy rich next year. Who the hell knows.

 

[ggies07]

Losing Drew is definitely bad for the company. He had deeper experience than anyone remaining, including Elon himself, who has less experience at Tesla than Drew due to competing demands on his time from SpaceX and other ventures. I don't think it's the end of the world, but certainly it is a significant loss.

I am inclined to believe he left voluntarily. He has stayed far longer than any other early employee except Elon and, as far as I know, he was the longest-tenured. If he was very annoyed with his boss, he could have walked away years ago like every other Roadster-era employee already has. He certainly had the wealth and clout to do so, and has had more experience and done more work and accomplished more in 18 years than almost anyone does in a career of 40+ years.

Why would Drew be fired because of something like the 4680 ramp going less well than planned? That makes no sense. Drew could instead just be reassigned to focus on Tesla Energy or something. Also, Elon has said that Tesla's performance management policy is based around high rewards for successful innovation, minimal punishment for failed innovation attempts, and punishment only for not trying new things. He has said this is a fundamental aspect of how Tesla operates and why they have such a rapid pace of innovation. Firing the VP of powertrain and energy engineering for such a "failure" would send a terrible message to the rest of the workforce. Additionally, there has been no sign that Elon is upset about the 4680 ramp in the first place. During the last earnings call, he and Drew appeared to have cordial relations and Elon let Drew answer the question about the 4680 ramp. Normally, Elon makes sure to get his comments in if he has an opinion on a topic.



Also, Elon has a history of being clear in public about when executives have been fired. If he has a problem with somebody, he is generally not shy about sharing it. In my opinion, one of his flaws is being too aggressive and having almost zero concept of polity and diplomacy in his public communications. It is not in character for him to kick someone out but then play the normal corporate politics game of helping the person save face.

I honestly want a detailed roadmap of the next six years now. AI/NN training is so vague and not tangible enough for us investors. Cells and chemistry was something to research, to learn, to understand.

 

[MC3OZ]

Does this replace the “unboxed” method?

My impression is that some parts of how Cybertruck is built are similar to the unboxed method.

I consider that Cybertruck is partially a dress rehearsal for the unboxed method.

I expect the Robotaxi to be built via the unboxed method, we may find out if that is true 8/8.

I didn't expect these layoffs, I was under the impression that the new multi-story car park at Austin was because more staff would be hired.

We will get the "full story" and the official explanations soon enough.

If a data centre is being built at Austin that doesn't surprise me, if Model 2 was going to be built at Austin md Austin has now pivoted to 100% Robotaxis that also isn't a surprise. That doesn't mean model 2 would not be built at a factory somewhere at sometime in the future.

We will not get clears answers for everything at the earnings call, if a Model 2 question is asked, I'll be surprised if we get a definite answer.

What would concern me is if the Robotaxi is not unveiled 8/8 or soon after, or a production timeline estimate for it is not provided.

 

[ggies07]

haha. love this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780022264362422434

 

[Xepa777]

I agree with the first part of your post but not the second.

The 4680 delay is on Elon and now he is repeating the same mistake by going all in on the robotaxi.
The Mexico factory has stopped because it was supposed to build the smaller/ cheaper vehicle. It’s redundant now in effect as Tesla’s already has excess capacity.

The worse interpretation of todays news and the broader vehicle indefinitely postponement isn’t that Elon is infatuated with the robotaxi, it’s that Tesla realized it can’t reliably scale a $25k car at the profit margins they want (whether due to 4680 delays or whatever).

That would be bad bad bad news. I sincerely hope that’s not the case, and since the Chinese are doing it now there’s clearly a viable pathway. If Tesla bet wrong on its battery chemistry and actually falls behind on that tech? (Like say sodium batteries actually are the future, which I doubt but just as an example) that’s a major problem.

 

[Xepa777]

I try and reply to why I disagreed. There's many things here, and I think you are on an involuntary vacation, So I'll pick one:

I’m more right than ever as of today and will
Keep being more and more right as the stock price falls to double digits and on 8/8 we realize we weee sold robotaxi vaporware like every single “day” event Tesla has ever done.

 

[Stretch2727]

As of today I think we are invested in the largest start up company of all time. Pretty clear to me Elon has amped up the risk/reward level. Buckle up as it's going to be an exciting ride. If you want a conservative investment TSLA is not it.

 

[DarkandStormy]

This rumor again.

I must admit, if this turns out to be true and the Model 2 is indeed "scrapped" then it could possibly also explain why Drew and Rohan left so abruptly. They might not agree with this course correction, just like how Franz and Lars didn't agree with it when they both talked Elon out of it years ago.

Of course I'm just theorycrafting here, none of us truly knows what's going on. Its possible Drew and Rohan really do just want to spend more time with their families, and its possible their simultaneous leaving is just a huge coincidence.

I'm not so sure though, there is a lot of FUD going on right now and a lot of it oddly converges neatly. Now with layoffs and higher ups leaving and things are really starting to get strange.

I hope Drew and Rohan did leave for family time only, I hope the Model 2 is still happening, I hope the layoffs are just the normal yearly Tesla workforce trimming.

I will admit though, I'm starting to get a bit worried. TSLA holders might be in for a rough ride over the next couple of years. Or we might get super filthy rich next year. Who the hell knows.

Hope is not a strategy.

 

[Mengy]

Hope is not a strategy.

No, but neither is investing based on rumors and FUD rather than trendlines and hard data.

 

[Usain]

I honestly want a detailed roadmap of the next six years now.

I think get your detailed company roadmap on 8/8. It's Robotaxi Day. Nothing else matters.

 

[ggies07]

I think get your detailed company roadmap on 8/8. It's Robotaxi Day. Nothing else matters.

Needs to be like the Investor Day presentation then and NOT like the Model Y reveal.

 

[GatorMeat]

Elon Musk changed his profile picture to one with the word "auto" underneath. And intentionally:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779995105908392366

Auto = automobiles?

Auto = autonomous?

Auto = autoeroticism?

It means Elon is the next Exec to leave to spend time with family

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Drew was just burned out, why not take a sabbatical instead of leaving the company? IMHO, people that love their jobs and have been at a company a long time don't bail unless something has caused them to no longer love their jobs, or there is a better opportunity elsewhere. Or it wasn't their choice. I don't buy "I wanted to spend more time with my family"

Most soldiers don't get divorced on their first tour, they get divorced on their second tour when the reality starts to set in for their spouse.

Almost no soldiers gets divorced on their third tour. That's because very few are still married on their third tour, and those who are have spouses who have learned to deal with the prolonged absences.

If Drew's got young kids at home probably both them and his spouse wants him to be at home.

 

[Tony73]

I honestly want a detailed roadmap of the next six years now. AI/NN training is so vague and not tangible enough for us investors. Cells and chemistry was something to research, to learn, to understand.

We”ll get something roadmap-ish which will probably be revamped within a year. At this point, you either trust Elon or you don’t.

 

[larmor]

An awful but market based perspective. (as everyone knows) In most companies that have layoffs the market rewards them for cost cutting. TSLA is different, always driven down given negative and positive news. Meanwhile AI continues learning how to drive on its own, don't look for MSM to be cheerleading. Look for insurance companies to take notice....

 

[elasalle]

Sat Pep talk in Austin - VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO

Cheer UP all ... this too shall pass !!

 

[cab]

The worse interpretation of todays news and the broader vehicle indefinitely postponement isn’t that Elon is infatuated with the robotaxi, it’s that Tesla realized it can’t reliably scale a $25k car at the profit margins they want (whether due to 4680 delays or whatever).

That would be bad bad bad news. I sincerely hope that’s not the case, and since the Chinese are doing it now there’s clearly a viable pathway. If Tesla bet wrong on its battery chemistry and actually falls behind on that tech? (Like say sodium batteries actually are the future, which I doubt but just as an example) that’s a major problem.

I have to admit today's news stories have me more rattled than any day in the last 2+ years....MUCH more so than when I watched the stock plummet to $101 or whatever it was. I'm already well underwater on tsla...this doesn't help.