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Stuff like this makes it hard for any Western auto maker to compete:
BYD's new EV, starting at less than $10,000, is stoking fear across the industry
Leading EV maker BYD shook the industry after unveiling the new Seagull (Dolphin Mini), with starting prices as low as...electrek.co
I would guess that Optimus will be walking on the moon much sooner than in 5 years.Q - It's 2029 (5 years from now), is SpaceX planned to be launching to Mars by then? I believe they've been targeting that year for a launch window for quite some time.
Asking because Cathie Woods is saying Tesla should be $2000. If SpaceX is launching to Mars with Tesla Bots and, potentially, people, I don't think TSLA at $2000 is that big of a deal, no?
Could this just be Tesla reverse-Osborning? (Has anybody said this already? 8 pages in 24 hours?!? I can't keep up). If people expect a $25 K Tesla, and it's stopping them buying what is offered for the next 18 months, there's something to be said for the tactic of Tesla pretending they aren't going to build it. After all, nobody from Tesla has actually said "we won't build the cheaper Tesla with a steering wheel and pedals". They just said "all in on autonomy" which isn't the same thing. In fact, it's nicely ambiguous.
If that's true, and they start quietly building 'Model 2' (aka NV91) in 2025 alongside the RoboTaxi version, then only the most bitter will complain they bought a 3 or a Y instead of waiting for NV91. Maybe it's just my wishful thinking, but the facts don't contradict that scenario, right? Even Franz said "Don't believe everything you read" when asked if they had cancelled NV91.
Here's to not getting details on the call (they could even dismissively say "we're not currently building a driver-version of RT", which would be true), but surprising us with release 1 in 2025. That's the best scenario for revenues, and indirectly, TSLA investors, IMHO.
Tesla, especially Franz and Musk, have been adamant about not discussing future products lately. This forum continues to ignore the Osborne factor for M2/NV92.Could this just be Tesla reverse-Osborning? (Has anybody said this already? 8 pages in 24 hours?!? I can't keep up). If people expect a $25 K Tesla, and it's stopping them buying what is offered for the next 18 months, there's something to be said for the tactic of Tesla pretending they aren't going to build it. After all, nobody from Tesla has actually said "we won't build the cheaper Tesla with a steering wheel and pedals". They just said "all in on autonomy" which isn't the same thing. In fact, it's nicely ambiguous.
If that's true, and they start quietly building 'Model 2' (aka NV91) in 2025 alongside the RoboTaxi version, then only the most bitter will complain they bought a 3 or a Y instead of waiting for NV91. Maybe it's just my wishful thinking, but the facts don't contradict that scenario, right? Even Franz said "Don't believe everything you read" when asked if they had cancelled NV91.
Here's to not getting details on the call (they could even dismissively say "we're not currently building a driver-version of RT", which would be true), but surprising us with release 1 in 2025. That's the best scenario for revenues, and indirectly, TSLA investors, IMHO.
Agree.They’re not going to answer those questions.
I typically don't post much because ya'll get to it before me but just note, "190 miles (305 km) CLTC range". That is a realistic USA range of probably 150+ miles.Stuff like this makes it hard for any Western auto maker to compete:
BYD's new EV, starting at less than $10,000, is stoking fear across the industry
Leading EV maker BYD shook the industry after unveiling the new Seagull (Dolphin Mini), with starting prices as low as...electrek.co
I typically don't post much because ya'll get to it before me but just note, "190 miles (305 km) CLTC range". That is a realistic USA range of probably 150+ miles.
Tesla already tried to sell a low range Model S and no significant quantity of people wanted it (2013). That is probably the real reason BYD has no intentions of selling it in the US. One of my Australian friends talks about the BYD vehicles he has purchase but always about how he is hypermiling. I am sorry but that is only for us dogged EV owners. No typical driver wants to do that. I no longer wish to drive with the windows up for better aero, AC off for better w/m, and 55mph in a 70. It was fun just to see if I could get down to 225w/m but just for that one time. I have the battery to just drive however I want.
Also Nissan already tried to sell these low range EVs and they were not popular.... not 2M cars popular but they were more than $10k.
While I think BYD is strong composition it seems everyone forgets they roughly sell half hybrids (which I do not consider EVs) and half full battery EVs. That is NOT Tesla's mission.
View attachment 1040060
I cannot read the original, but the comments for this say it was one supplier cut due to changing the motor design. So maybe not what is claimed here?
"Tesla has recently cut production significantly. In the next six months, our supply will be cut by 30%." Recently, Li Tao (pseudonym), an internal manager of an exclusive domestic supplier of Tesla, said in an interview with us. Li Tao said that Tesla's Shanghai factory is his company's largest customer. Tesla's orders have been very stable in the past year or so. This sudden order cut has had a major impact on them. "We are also expected to lay off employees, otherwise we will not be able to survive." Li Tao revealed.
copycats galore - they no longer want to share their secret sauceTesla, especially Franz and Musk, have been adamant about not discussing future products lately. This forum continues to ignore the Osborne factor for M2/NV92.
IMHO, I think they are fed up with criticism regarding "missing timelines".
Agree.
For anybody who didn't see the whole tweet, the questions are below. I've also inserted my own prediction of how they'll get answered...mostly non-answers or answers that tell us what we already know.
- What is the status of 4680? What is the current output?
- Predicted answer: 4680 is rapidly advancing. The first production version of 4680 was used in the structural Model Y...[insert more discussion on that milestone here]. Since that time, we have iterated and revamped the production line to an updated version, nicknamed the CyberCell, with advancements optimized at our Kato road facility. We recently announced that production on that version had surpassed 1000 vehicle sets per week....[insert more discussion on the achievement and how Cybertruck is great]. We are in the process of bringing additional production lines of the CyberCell online...currently we have 1(?) line in production, X lines in pre-production and early commissioning, and Y lines well into the build process. We expect production to be up considerably in the coming months, while we also continue to make advancements in the cell design and manufacturing in our Kato road facility.
- What is the current status of Optimus? Are they currently performing any factory tasks? When do you expect to start mass production?
- Predicted answer: Chuckles from Elon, then: Optimus is going to be a great product, and our team is doing a great job of enhancing capabilities and reducing manufacturing cost. It's really a great product that will change the world....[[Insert discussion on how you even define an economy if the labor is nearly free]]. This isn't the right forum for discussing future production and uses of Optimus...we will have a special day for that later and it will be amazing.
- What is Tesla's current assessment of the pathway toward regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the US, and how should we think about the appropriate safety threshold compared to human drivers?
- Predicted answer: FSD is making great progress. The latest versions have seen a huge step [insert discussion about switch from 300,000 lines of code to a neural network]. We are currently no longer compute constrainted, so iterations will come more rapidly. And you know, sometimes it will be like 2 steps forward and one step back, but the steps will come quicker. I have been overly optimistic before [chuckles from Elon], but I am confident we are no longer at a local maximum and I can see the path to full autonomy clearly. And even once we are several factors safer than an average human, it will still take time for regulatory approval. [Insert discussion about computers being always aware and not distracted by phones or impaired by alcohol]. But, yeah, we are confident in rapid FSD development and the people using it can already see it is mind blowing and it will only get better from here.
- Following Tesla's Robotaxi unveil on 8/8, what is the realistic timeline for launchign a revenue generating robotaxi network?
- Predicted answer: This isn't really the right forum for discussing future products, but I'll just say it will take time for all of the regulatory approvals to fall into place even after we can prove that FSD is safer than a human, like 3-times, 5-times, one day 10-times. But the robotaxi design is really great and it will blow peoples minds. It blows my mind!
- What is the progress on the cheaper next generation vehicle?
- Predicted answer: So, again, this isn't the right forum to discuss future products. We'll make things more clear in August and will reveal the products and plans at the right time. [Maybe a discussion on media sources trying to piece together rumors and pieces of information, and getting it wrong...but no clarification on exactly what is wrong].
- What is gating the production ramp at Lathrop? Where do you see the Megapack run rate by the end of the year?
- Predicted answer: So, yeah, megapack is a great product. We are ramping Lathrop, as well working on a Megapack factory in China, and potentially others [Elon Chuckles.]. Really for Megapack we see quasi-infinite demand, so we are going to ramp as fast as possible...I mean, we have to get the battery cells, and we can only build and install them so fast, and it's all increasing very rapidly. And, we'll see the ramp being kindof lumpy because these are huge projects, and we don't count them until the project is complete and online...but, yeah, we'll ramp as fast as we can.
- Have any of the legacy automakers contacted Tesla about possibly licensing FSD in the future?
- Predicted answer: So, there have been talks but nothing concrete yet. Like we said, FSD is great and getting better all the time...no longer compute constrained, so that's going to get faster. One day, having a car without FSD will be like riding a horse. Sure, it will happen, but it will be like a niche thing. A quaint thing. And just for like safety reasons, everybody is going to have to do autonomy. But, so, Yeah, we are open to licensing FSD. We want to make the world a better and safer place.
If they give a non answer to number 5, the stock is heading south. Wall Street does not believe in FSD.
For entirely different reasons I sold SpaceX almost a year ago. The reasons had nothing to do with anything other than the implications of the shareholding method. It just added too much reporting complexity for my two countries of residence.If my memory serves, you were also at one time an investor in SpaceX. Assuming that is true, did you also exit your SpaceX position for similar reasons? I have been following the ads trials and have wondered whether the Tesla and Starlink efforts are informing one another or are similarly inefficient in non-obvious ways.
I fully agree that Wall Street does not believe in FSD.
But, I think Tesla/Elon have used the "a quarterly call is not the right forum to discuss future products" line before.
I think they can do that safely here, while re-iterating that development is quite far along. They can again say "don't believe all you read" without being specific, and I don't expect them to add specifics of whatever the current plan is for the timing or relative production numbers balance of robotaxi vs. less expensive consumer car.
I'm probably being optimistic, because the jouranlists/analysts do seem to know exactly how to hit the triggers that make the stock price drop, but I feel like the negative stories will be limited in effect if all they can really say is "Tesla didn't clarify and told us they'd talk about it later." Ha ha ha! Even just typing that hypothetical quote, I realize how unlikely it is that the stories would be so factual and tame .