Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EQC_]

Honestly.
BYD could sell gigailions of $10k luxury electric vehicles in the USA if my town is the norm.
Greater than 25% of the homes around here have a third vehicle that is a "fast" electric golf cart licensed by the City's Police Department.

BYD could put a 2/3's smaller battery, and a cheaper power train in their $10k vehicle. Slap on a super cool plastic golf cartish exterior, and remove all the doors and windows, And safety features, And HVAC, and a bunch a other stuff. Put an electric governor on it and it would be the coolest, legally-permitted grocery-getter in town.

I assume at least some of those golf cart style EV's you're seeing are the GEM brand...but I think there are other similar brands with similar prices, and I am always shocked when I check the prices and see they are solidly in "real car" territory. The high prices for the incredibly low specs is why I think a lot of people really would go for a $15-$20K "real" EV even if the range was low, and even better if it qualified for the US tax credit.

I understand that thegolf carts fill a niche, and the extra small size and low speed have value in some neighborhoods. I could find one of those very useful for neighborhood use if they weren't so terribly overpriced by my standards. And even for neighborhood use, I'd prefer to have modern safety features so I had some protection from folks speeding in normal cars.


Example of what golf cart EV's apparently cost:

GEM e2: BASE price $15,240 USD PLUS $1,740 factory destination fee

• 2 seats
• 5 kW motor (that's right, less than 7 horsepower)
• 25mph top speed (it's a golf cart or sortof-road-legal car for neighborhood use)
• No doors (that option adds over $2,000)
• No radio (that option is over $700)
• No heat or AC
  • Heat looks to be a $600 option
• Lead acid type AGM battery good for about 30 miles at low speed
  • an optional 7.2 kWh Lithium Ion battery adds nearly $6,000 for about 50 miles at low speed
  • an optional 14.4 kWh Lithium Ion battery adds nearly $12,000 for about 100 miles at low speed
• 2 year / 8,000 mile battery warranty
  • The Lithium batteries get 7-year/30,000 mile warranties
• 1 kW charger.

Going up to the 4-seat GEM e4 raises the base price up to $17,500, with similar specs to the above.

Again, just shocking to me that a 4-seat electric golf cart, that can only go 25mph, with doors, and a 50 mile range can apparently be sold for an MSRP over $25,000 plus $1,740 destination. 100 miles at 25mph shoots the MSRP to over $30,000.

 

[EQC_]

...

I hope the call is not an hour of Musk telling us how hard it is to solve autonomy.

Of course not!

You forgot to include how prototypes are easy and manufacturing is hard, and maybe an inclusion of "the production ramp can only move as fast as the slowest supplier or process," and exponentials are hard to understand and hard to predict in the early stages, and how a car without autonomy will be like riding a horse, and how the interest rates are high and he's still worried about the economy for the next year or so, and that there's no demand issue -- there's just the issue that people WANT Tesla's they just can't afford them, and how he has been overly optimistic in his predictions but is trying to be less wrong.


Edit to add: we all have our complaints, but I love all the classic Elon talking points...I mostly just find some of the questions silly when the people asking should know by now that they won't learn anything new if they ask a question that will lead Elon to fall back on one of these recurring notes.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is a call like no other in Tesla’s history. All the indications are that Tesla has made a hard pivot to autonomy. Wall Street would want to know exactly what that means for the legacy auto business.
In my opinion, Tessa would better off just telling the truth; let investors know if next gen has been postponed or cancelled. If it’s canceled, some investors will bail but then it’s over and done with. I do agree that Musk will be non-specific in answering those questions and that the call will not resolve any of the major uncertainties around the company’s future direction.

I hope the call is not an hour of Musk telling us how hard it is to solve autonomy.

There are 2 main things that decide the cost of a Compact Model 2 or Robotaxi, size (raw materials) and the Gen3 manufacturing process.

Size :-

• Model 2 - 65% of a Model 3?
• Robotaxi - 55% of a Model 3?

Gen3 manufacturing 30% cheaper for both.

A Robotaxi might have a more expensive long cycle life battery, possibly resulting in a roughly equal final vehicle cost, but a lower cost per mile.

Assuming FSD works, For a vehicle that costs roughly the same as a Model 2, the Robotaxi would be far more profitable, and that is probably why it has priority.

This doesn't mean that a Model 2 could not compete with Chinese cars and be profitable, it just can't be anywhere near as profitable as a Robotaxi with working FSD.

Normally after vehicle teardowns Chinese competitors can copy what Tesla is doing in 2-3 years, sometimes even faster. What is different about Gen3 is a teardown doesn't necessarily then the benchmarker anything about the machines which built the car. "The machine that builds the machine that builds the machine".

So it is likely Gen3 vehicle production involve bespoke Tesla built machinery that is unique and can't be purchased from a catalogue. After a teardown the benchmarkers may be able to make some educated guesses about what the machinery does.

Compared to a Model 2, Tesla has a lot more control over whether or not benchmarkers can even get their hands on Robotaxi.

Then we come to the FSD part of the equation which is even harder to copy.

What Musk says on the call is a complete lottery.

IMO the best that you can hope for is something along the lines of - "The Robotaxi will be the first Gen3 car, details will be revealed 8/8, announcements for other products will be made at the appropriate time".

 

[Todd Burch]

This is what you get for $2500 a year from Mercedes-

...

The sales mark a new echelon of autonomous driving available to the average American. Mercedes is the first automaker selling to customers to achieve level 3 capabilities in the U.S., with Tesla and others still offering technology at level 2—in which cars can perform specific tasks but require constant supervision from a driver.

LOL this is hilarious. Once the Mercedes driver completes their two page checklist to ensure conditions are met for autonomy, they can look down at a book for a minute until the car alerts them to pay attention again.

That is indeed "a new echelon of autonomous driving".

Meanwhile people all over North America are watching their Teslas drive them across town without touching anything. Yet *Mercedes* is marking the new echelon of autonomous driving.

How do these people write this stuff with a straight face?

 

[Paul_SF]

Well, well. Look at the investors darling NVDA…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781479341366362115

 

[spacerfc]

Well you wanted Elon to be more focused on Tesla...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781072032035217575

 

[spacerfc]

Big if true:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781203621172113629

Tesla bought a ton of compute and now has over 100,000 H100s, which Elon will probably talk about on the earnings call.

@alojoh commented this probably worth $3~4B, @ChrisZheng001 says his source is someone from Nvidia.

 

[Musskiah]

Model 3 Performance fleet at Southport Shanghai Tesla Model 3 Performance Fleet Ready for Export From the Shanghai Port

 

[Drumheller]

Well you wanted Elon to be more focused on Tesla...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781072032035217575

That may be temporary. In most organizations, when someone leaves, that person's direct reports automatically become direct reports of the next level up, which the person that left had been reporting to.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Small (in the global scope of the turmoil in the Teslaverse) good news item for Giga Berlin: The water utility had threatened to not dispose of their waste water any more because they exceed the limits for certain substances.

English - 2 - bureaucratiz translation: the sewage is dirty.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So basically cruise control on a few roads, only if it's a clear day and below 40mph and if they turn it on. Im guessing this will be extremely limited and basically useless.

... slightly less useful than that. The MB level 3 driver assist can only be engaged if the car is following a lead car. IE: it can't be trusted to follow curves in the road by itself.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Don't forget to many of us in Europe, small cars are BETTER than big cars, even if the price is the same. I'd actually pay proper money to have my model Y scaled down.

How about a Model Y that's a foot shorter, all taken off the rear of the car?

#predict

 

[geometro]

What the heck is going on…?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781511535304577062

 

[AndrewZ]

What the heck is going on…?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781511535304577062

All Model S and X trims were dropped by $2k as well

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Higher for longer":

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781511535304577062

 

[Drumheller]

All Model S and X trims were dropped by $2k as well

Yes, but changing paint color on the plaid S is now an additional fee again whereas all colors were included for a while. So not much of a reduction unless you take the default color.

I keep an eye on the Plaid... for reasons...

 

[loquitur]

Technically, there is at least one state (Cali) where the Model 3 costs just under $25k with max state and federal incentives, so...there!

Sadly, the California state rebate program (CVRP) ended last year. There are various local rebates of a thousand or two --
the best incentives are via the "Clean Cars 4 All" program for various parts of the state in disadvantaged and low-income
communities, i.e.:

Program Overview

www.baaqmd.gov

The catch is that you have to turn in for dismantling a car 2007 or older that you've owned and insured
for two years. Thus, if you are in the right census tract with a sufficiently low income you can get $12K off
the MSRP, for example a lower-range Model Y for $44,990 - 7.5K fed - $12K state == $25,490. So, almost!
(Though if you live in the city of Vernon, CA subtract another 2K.)

[Note: added in press, that's $23,490 now reflecting today's $2K Model Y decrease, so there you go!]

It'd be informative to see what the uptake in these low-income areas really is; some are even in San Francisco
zip codes (not just the Tenderloin, and Bayview, but also South-of-Market). Yet even in rural areas, many at
low-income levels can't afford (or shouldn't buy) $25K for something new and shiny.

Your point remains that the "25K" Tesla is already here for some. Because of the variability of rebates and
inflation, I think it's a mistake for pundits to keep pining for "the 25K Tesla" instead of just the
"Tesla compact car". When this term was bandied about a few years ago there was near 0% inflation,
when the 25K reference was in current dollars. Sketching in a 20% bump for inflation makes that 30K.
If Tesla introduces another model for $32.5K MSRP in the US made with North American trade partner
batteries, that would effectively be 25K modulo the IRA. Whether it's made in Mexico with cheap labor
or not, the $7.5K IRA reduction is the singlemost reduction in COGS that Tesla can do at this point.
If only EM could sleep on the Nevada Panasonic factory floor until that job is done for the 2024 Model 3 ...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Direct statement from Tesla on the Mission:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781518596990231026

 

[SO16]

Tesla ending referrals. This is surprising.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781515203194106208

 

[Artful Dodger]

For those of you kvetching about a 'no' vote from Uncle Leo, his 26.7 million shares represent 1% of Tesla's outstanding shares after removing Elon's 400 million shares from the voting pool.

That takes the 'yes' majority from a lofty 73% all the way down to a mere 72%.