Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Why can’t you buy shares direct from TD Ameritrade / Schwab or some other company. Maybe this is a Europe thing, but just buy 1 share direct and you can vote. Is it really much harder than that?

You get to vote one share. Not exactly going to move the needle.

 

[EQC_]

Fair enough, news moves fast.

Doesn't really matter though. Tesla is demand limited at current prices. So, sure, they can increase production to spread out fixed costs over more units...but those units will pile up in inventory or they'll have to cut prices again, which will lower margins.

If folks here are suspicious of your motives, it is not because you present negative info or opinions on Tesla, but rather because you do so while ignoring standard human customs of conversation.

Normal human discourse involves a sort of back-and-forth, if you will. One person says a thing, others respond, first person makes some effort to act as though they at least saw the response and perhaps make their own reasoned response. Back and forth, you see...

Yesterday, you brought up your story from China. If I remember correctly, the first person to point out your error was less than 15 minutes, and within 40 minutes several other people replied with better translations and more details to show that your conclusion was actually wrong. You completely ignored them. I believe you even posted again later on other topics without any mention of those responses....so its not like you weren't on the forum.

Today, you brought up the exact same story again, as though none of those responses happened. No attempt to "un-debunk" your thesis or even recognize that people had responded...just completely ignoring all of it.

When called out again today, your response was to blow it off with a generic "fair enough. News travels fast" and then just fell back on making a completely different argument for why Tesla must be doomed.

Again, you completely ignored yesterday's "conversation" that you started and then ignored.... brought it up again today as though none of the responses happened...and then when others informed you again of your mistake you just jumped to a new topic.

This is not how humans converse; this is not how people learn to be less wrong.

 

[wtlloyd]

Nobody has brought up selling the FUD.
Non-commercial use only.
$29.95/month extends battery performance guarantee to 85% of spec rating up to 400,000 miles. Must accept program within 90 days of acquisition. Coverage ends if subscription lapses @ 60 days. Warranty is transferrable with any future sale. Etc.
Lemonade outta lemons, and all that. Pretty sure the battery packs are up to it.

 

[Ellec]

Fair enough, news moves fast.

Doesn't really matter though. Tesla is demand limited at current prices. So, sure, they can increase production to spread out fixed costs over more units...but those units will pile up in inventory or they'll have to cut prices again, which will lower margins.

Remains to be seen, you could be right, hopefully the Conference call will clear things up. If they are demand limited they will have many tools at their disposal to increase its like new markets, advertising, incentives etc. Also given the 16% of all new cars sold were EV's they have a lot of headroom in the inevitable switch from ICE.

 

[Ellec]

If folks here are suspicious of your motives, it is not because you present negative info or opinions on Tesla, but rather because you do so while ignoring standard human customs of conversation.

Normal human discourse involves a sort of back-and-forth, if you will. One person says a thing, others respond, first person makes some effort to act as though they at least saw the response and perhaps make their own reasoned response. Back and forth, you see...

Yesterday, you brought up your story from China. If I remember correctly, the first person to point out your error was less than 15 minutes, and within 40 minutes several other people replied with better translations and more details to show that your conclusion was actually wrong. You completely ignored them. I believe you even posted again later on other topics without any mention of those responses....so its not like you weren't on the forum.

Today, you brought up the exact same story again, as though none of those responses happened. No attempt to "un-debunk" your thesis or even recognize that people had responded...just completely ignoring all of it.

When called out again today, your response was to blow it off with a generic "fair enough. News travels fast" and then just fell back on making a completely different argument for why Tesla must be doomed.

Again, you completely ignored yesterday's "conversation" that you started and then ignored.... brought it up again today as though none of the responses happened...and then when others informed you again of your mistake you just jumped to a new topic.

This is not how humans converse; this is not how people learn to be less wrong.

Agree it's simply using bad faith arguments. Can be ignored, I welcome real criticism with trusted sources. Tesla and Elon will make mistakes but I am confident in the team and believe they can overcome any hurdles so put my money where my mouth is.

 

[mongo]

How's a 10 second fix for the Cybertruck recall sound?
View attachment 1040220View attachment 1040221

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781719100525556090

Oh no! It actually takes more like 35 seconds! Possibly a minute with prep and clean up.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781734760215408922

 

[Usain]

This is not how humans converse;

True, but it is how humans troll.

 

[AndrewZ]

Oh no! It actually takes more like 35 seconds! Possibly a minute with prep and clean up.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781734760215408922

Hopefully people understand that basically all auto recalls are voluntary as are their solutions, and what the solution entails can be viewed as more indicative of what value the manufacturer is willing to put in.

But as an investor of course, cheap and easy is pretty much exactly what you want

 

[mongo]

Hopefully people understand that basically all auto recalls are voluntary as are their solutions,

NHTSA would disagree with that. They can force a recall with its associated stop sale implications (known non-compliant new vehicles cannot be sold). That manufacturers initiate the recall should not be seen as the regulators lacking teeth.

and what the solution entails can be viewed as more indicative of what value the manufacturer is willing to put in.

Had this been the original design, I doubt anyone would have taken notice. Note the nice alignment jig and vacuum used to clean up the mess.

But as an investor of course, cheap and easy is pretty much exactly what you want

I'd say low cost, final result matches the esthetic (square rivets would just be asking for trouble).
Supplier should be on the hook for replacement units with this potentially being done as a minigation step.

 

[heltok]

The main advantage of Tesla having a lot more compute is that their engineers can iterate faster and that they can increase the dataset. Meta who has tons of compute has released their newer GPT version and performance has improved a lot compared to last year:

Just look at the score of MATH, compare llama2 with 70B parameters to llama3 with 8B parameters. Model size down 10x, performance up 3x !! In 9months!

This is what FSD V12.1 to V12.3.5 looks like. More compute has been unlocked, more targeted data has been added, the system has been tuned slightly. Expect Llama4 to further improve the metrics for all size of their neural network. Expect V12+ to improve the metrics. We know the formula, keep adding tons of high quality data, add extra targeted data where the system is weak, lots of offline compute and even with a moderate online compute you will see massive gains in inference performance.

 

[EQC_]

Hopefully people understand that basically all auto recalls are voluntary as are their solutions, and what the solution entails can be viewed as more indicative of what value the manufacturer is willing to put in.

But as an investor of course, cheap and easy is pretty much exactly what you want

I believe we have heard that this is the temporary solution, and a new/redesigned pedal assembly, when available, will be installed as the final fix.

So...cheap and easy to keep people on the road now, followed by a nicer fix for those some people later.

I feel like this is much better than some recalls I have heard of, which include statements like "park outside and away from buildings, and don't drive the car until we figure out a fix later."

 

[2daMoon]

True, but it is how trolls human.

FTFY

 

[Quesder]

Since I have moved to a more conservative phase of investing, I sold last at $200 almost all of my position (i keep some shares for sentimental reasons) when I mentioned in this thread my analysis for why the stock would drop to $150.

I feel envious and regretful after seeing this, and I think most here should feel the same way. I probably didn't see your post, or very little possibility that I saw but didn't believe.
I think this forum is too much like an echochamber now. Too many times whenever someone questions the performance or SP of the company, he or she got a reply saying "I am long term investor and I don't care...", or simply a bunch of disagrees (the thumb down).

A concrete example is that, when I post that 4/1-4/7 week Tesla sold only 1907 cars in China, using insurance data as an indicator (which is used all the time before quarterly report), someone said I am spreading FUD and is a troll. He did find some data showing that week 1 or a quarter is usually low, although it was roughly 3600 a year ago.
By the way, week 4/8-4/14 is 6000, but it is not that good either.

 

[Skipdd]

Changing the subject, the UAW just won at VW Chattanooga. Several more elections are in process. The tide may have turned in the south, and Tesla is their big target. It will be interesting to see how this progresses. For those who don’t know, VW has wanted the union, and the workers fought it.

Why did VW want the union? And the fact that the workers fought it might have bearing on success of Tesla not unionizing.

 

[Singuy]

I feel envious and regretful after seeing this, and I think most here should feel the same way. I probably didn't see your post, or very little possibility that I saw but didn't believe.
I think this forum is too much like an echochamber now. Too many times whenever someone questions the performance or SP of the company, he or she got a reply saying "I am long term investor and I don't care...", or simply a bunch of disagrees (the thumb down).

This forum is an investors forum. It's for people to share thoughts as an investor of Tesla. It's not a forum for people to convince each other to not be an investor of Tesla.

The number 1 question this forum answers is "why should you invest in Tesla and why you shouldn't invest in other similar companies." Every other forum for any other company can answer "why you shouldn't invest in Tesla".

 

[Cult Member]

The Cybertruck recall was on the 10 o'clock news of my favourite German radio station, ROCKANTENNE.
I've checked it again, this Truck is not available in Europe.

I just want to say DON'T WORRY, the world does not have any other major problems this weekend.
Enjoy it!

 

[hobbes]

Why can’t you buy shares direct from TD Ameritrade / Schwab or some other company. Maybe this is a Europe thing, but just buy 1 share direct and you can vote. Is it really much harder than that?

Aren´t the votes weighted with number of shares owned?!

 

[cliff harris]

A concrete example is that, when I post that 4/1-4/7 week Tesla sold only 1907 cars in China, using insurance data as an indicator (which is used all the time before quarterly report), someone said I am spreading FUD and is a troll.

I think the problem is that a lot of us have held TSLA for so long that we have learned that even quarterly data is too granular, and weekly sales in a single country is basically laughably unhelpful.
You can probably find a 10 minute period where Tesla sold ZERO cars, but how helpful is that? Its not like cars are delivered by a constant stream from a hose. Car carriers and trains mean deliveries and sales are always going to be lumpy.
Show me a year where Tesla sells fewer cars than the previous year, and I may well sell all my stock. But one week in one country? Nope.

 

[sunwarriors]

I feel envious and regretful after seeing this, and I think most here should feel the same way. I probably didn't see your post, or very little possibility that I saw but didn't believe.
I think this forum is too much like an echochamber now. Too many times whenever someone questions the performance or SP of the company, he or she got a reply saying "I am long term investor and I don't care...", or simply a bunch of disagrees (the thumb down).

A concrete example is that, when I post that 4/1-4/7 week Tesla sold only 1907 cars in China, using insurance data as an indicator (which is used all the time before quarterly report), someone said I am spreading FUD and is a troll. He did find some data showing that week 1 or a quarter is usually low, although it was roughly 3600 a year ago.
By the way, week 4/8-4/14 is 6000, but it is not that good either.

I agree and think any doubters should just wait till 8/8 and see what happens in 3/5 years. I don't think the earnings call will say much since as Musk said, it's not a product announcement call. I'm not a fan of the wait 12+ years or 20 years or forever as an investment timeframe personally. I also don't think Tesla is what Tesla was 10 years ago neither when the stock was at $13 and I think, $41? billion market cap? Like others, I just stated my mindset and we'll see who's right eventually.

Similar to Twitter, this will take a few years to play out probably (or sooner like 8/8 at least).

 

[Usain]

The main advantage of Tesla having a lot more compute is that their engineers can iterate faster and that they can increase the dataset. Meta who has tons of compute has released their newer GPT version and performance has improved a lot compared to last year:

View attachment 1040253

Just look at the score of MATH, compare llama2 with 70B parameters to llama3 with 8B parameters. Model size down 10x, performance up 3x !! In 9months!

This is what FSD V12.1 to V12.3.5 looks like. More compute has been unlocked, more targeted data has been added, the system has been tuned slightly. Expect Llama4 to further improve the metrics for all size of their neural network. Expect V12+ to improve the metrics. We know the formula, keep adding tons of high quality data, add extra targeted data where the system is weak, lots of offline compute and even with a moderate online compute you will see massive gains in inference performance.

Excellent post. This is exactly why going balls to the wall for autonomy is such a blindingly obvious move.

We are going to see massive improvement at a very fast pace. I don't see how Tesla gets to another local maximum any time soon unless they run into hardware limitations. But even then, a hardware limitation can be overcome in the dedicated robotaxi vehicle.

I'm having trouble seeing how autonomy is not achieved relatively soon.