Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Honestly, one of the challenges here on this forum is you have a mix of folks who were in during the "is Tesla gonna even make it (with single digit stock prices" days and the "I went all in at $380" days. For the record, I'm in the latter camp...ouch. One could easily argue those in the former camp had a MUCH greater chance of watching their investment go to zero, BUT for the same total dollar amount of investment their possible ROI is waaaaaay higher. Indeed, they are already up so far, the current moves seem almost irrelevant. Those of us in the latter camp dream of simply getting back to "even" and the "hyped" future numbers might get to 5 or 10x of the current price. The 100x days are over so our ROI is simply a lot more modest. Indeed, there are likely any number of stronger bets going back 3 years until now. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and if we had all known what those were, we might have picked those plays.
I'm not sure if, back in the early days Tesla ever had a multi-year 70% drop (at peak), but that's what us later investors have endured (into negative returns). Our risk of "it goes to zero" is almost zero too now, but it doesn't mean the current drop isn't discouraging and painful.
Is there a TSLA halving event I can look forward to (that isn't the stock price)!

First, oh yeah. We saw some wicked SP moves in the early days. Brexit literally cut TSLA in half in a couple days. The SP then managed to recovery fully within a week or so.

Then there was the fiasco where the SP went from $900 ish to $600 ish in a few hours. Thanks to the WS crooks.

As long as you don’t need your investment money during this transition period for Tesla, you’ll be fine. Play dead and wait it out.

 

[Usain]

Show me a year where Tesla sells fewer cars than the previous year, and I may well sell all my stock.

There is a decent chance that will happen this year. But you still shouldn't sell.

 

[Quesder]

This forum is an investors forum. It's for people to share thoughts as an investor of Tesla. It's not a forum for people to convince each other to not be an investor of Tesla.

The number 1 question this forum answers is "why should you invest in Tesla and why you shouldn't invest in other similar companies." Every other forum for any other company can answer "why you shouldn't invest in Tesla".

I personally cannot agree that "The number 1 question this forum answers is "why should you invest in Tesla and why you shouldn't invest in other similar companies."
I think this forum's purpose is for investors who have involved in TSLA to help each other have a better performance. So, at some point of time, a TSLA investor should sell all of his shares or at least, cut some positions, wait for a better time for entrance.
And, if the fundamentals have changed (though everyone has a different ruler/scale of that), quit investing TSLA.
At this time point, fundamentals really changed, 3/Y don't have growth, CT is ramping up slowly, China sales are going down, FSD revenue is not certain. And the company is pivoting to autonomous. The evaluation is definitely changing, investors should be careful not to take more risks than they can sustain.

I, who has 4000 shares now, hope that $140-ish will be the bottom this time.

As an investor, you should evaluate your performance. We all know that TSLA has 10x or 20x growth since 2012 or so, but how about the past 3 years?
And how is that compared to other companies, such as Meta, NVDA, or just MSFT?
Just reiterate that you are a long-term investor doesn't help your performance.

Regarding weekly, quarterly, or yearly delivery numbers... if up to now you cannot see that 2024 is on the track of "delivering less than 2023", then you are probably blocking your own eyes by your own will.

 

[Usain]

We can't really say not discussing of her "hoe" status during a wedding ceremony is considered being in an echo chamber.

Hoes have a status?

 

[Singuy]

I personally cannot agree that "The number 1 question this forum answers is "why should you invest in Tesla and why you shouldn't invest in other similar companies."
I think this forum's purpose is for investors who have involved in TSLA to help each other have a better performance. So, at some point of time, a TSLA investor should sell all of his shares or at least, cut some positions, wait for a better time for entrance.
And, if the fundamentals have changed (though everyone has a different ruler/scale of that), quit investing TSLA.
At this time point, fundamentals really changed, 3/Y don't have growth, CT is ramping up slowly, China sales are going down, FSD revenue is not certain. And the company is pivoting to autonomous. The evaluation is definitely changing, investors should be careful not to take more risks than they can sustain.

I, who has 4000 shares now, hope that $140-ish will be the bottom this time.

As an investor, you should evaluate your performance. We all know that TSLA has 10x or 20x growth since 2012 or so, but how about the past 3 years?
And how is that compared to other companies, such as Meta, NVDA, or just MSFT?
Just reiterate that you are a long-term investor doesn't help your performance.

Regarding weekly, quarterly, or yearly delivery numbers... if up to now you cannot see that 2024 is on the track of "delivering less than 2023", then you are probably blocking your own eyes by your own will.

We have other threads that deal with short term stock movements and predictions. If you want to pivot to Meta, then you should be in the Meta investor thread and have them convince you why Meta and not Tesla. It's not this forum's intent to convince people why Meta and not Tesla. This is not the overall market investment forum to maximize your return. It's literally met to clarify confusion or educate for people who are already investors or people interested in becoming an investor.

So I don't know about you, but I've never gone to a Porsche dealership and try to convince their sales team and customers why their cars are trash and people should buy Teslas instead. You should go to a Porsche dealership with the intent of purchasing a car or do a comparison.

 

[Quesder]

Does this forum thread have a rule that non-tesla investors/stock owners aren't/shouldn't post? This is an honest question as wouldn't having everyone holding the same long position end up having a certain level of confirmation bias? If there is such a rule, that's fine as well and I'd stop posting/replying, but as I mentioned before, these forums from many car makes (or other stocks/companies) end up looking like the same echo chamber if you read other investor threads for any company. I personally don't think that's a positive.

Yup, I once invested in NIO heavily. At $24 I quit, and from time to time I went back to NIO forum to take a snap.
People were yelling the stock was manipulated, or other investors were short-sighted and would be regretted. Or, once ET5 is ramped, SP would back to $65 and a new ATH.
That lasted for 2.5 years. And now NIO is $4.
I just hope that this forum would not become a place like that of NIO.
Facts and warnings should be acknowledged, or at least not rebuked.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is not how humans converse; this is not how people learn to be less wrong.

No, but it's how trolls converse.

 

[Quesder]

I think that FSD alone cannot be the savior of Tesla. It is a very simple napkin calculation:
$100 a month for 5 years is only $6000, and the FSD take rate may be not that high, let's say 30%. Of the 6M cars already sold, many of them (HW2 or earlier) are not capable of activating V12.x, or cannot fully exploit the capability of FSD V12.
In short, not helping the revenue very much. Maybe help gross margin, but probably 0.3x or less. Unless, in the future every car sold by any car company has to be autonomous capable and TELSA makes a big money on licensing FSD. I don't think that happens in 15 years or 20.

So, what I really want to say is that Optimus is more likely to be the killer application, and FSD MUST be a helper to the dawn of Optimus. Optimus has way more applications than FSD.
The problem is, FSD is improving so fast because TESLA has so much driving training data., but I don't see TESLA having more data on training robots to do human work than other companies (most likely, industrial/factory works). Maybe it does, but I don't see an illustration.

If we cannot find the connection between "FSD success" to "Optimus training/development", as investors, we cannot bet on that Tesla will do better than other Robot projects of other companies. In that case, put the majority of your money on TSLA at current price is very risky.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Are the currently slowing numbers transitory
That, is the question.

 

[EVWatcher]

I’ve been reading this forum since 2015 I think and if there’s anything I learned from this forum is that when Quesader pokes his head out we’re near the local bottom.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you now of a reliable way to find your place in the queue for CT delivery? Like “I’m #200,000” or something.

We heard recently that Tesla CT is sold out for the 2024 model year. That likely means that unless you're willing to pony up for the Foundation Edition AND qualify to 'cue-hop' as a long-term TSLA shareholder, your number in the line is going to come up no sooner than 2025. If you do decide to pony up the extra $20K for the Foundation Edition, rest easy knowing that you helped bring CT to positive gross margins months or even quarters sooner.

Especially, when you are admittedly not a TSLA investor, and, seem to have only an interest in arguing about why not to be one. Move along, this is not the stock you are looking for.

Confucius say: "Don't feed the trolls".

Cheers!

 

[Quesder]

I’ve been reading this forum since 2015 I think and if there’s anything I learned from this forum is that when Quesader pokes his head out we’re near the local bottom.

Not this time., and it is not funny anymore.
I became active again this January when SP is $183, and I teased myself too, hoping the situation would change. At that time the SP had dropped 30% from $265, Dec 28. I hoped it would recover in one month, like it did in Jan 2023.

But no, the situation didn't get better and the SP is just getting lower and lower.

As an investor who still holds 4000 shares, I do hope 140-ish will be the bottom this time.

Fundamentals have changed, man.

 

[Artful Dodger]

About time! Here we go!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781856306242175382

I presume this X App for Tesla is a native app which runs on the car OS. Will be interesting to see how they handle embedded video. Will be even more interesting to see if the X app uses one of the Tesla neural net NN cores to run a large language model LLM.

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Not this time., and it is not funny anymore.
I became active again this January when SP is $183, and I teased myself too, hoping the situation would change. At that time the SP had dropped 30% from $265, Dec 28. I hoped it would recover in one month, like it did in Jan 2023.

But no, the situation didn't get better and the SP is just getting lower and lower.

As an investor who still holds 4000 shares, I do hope 140-ish will be the bottom this time.

Fundamentals have changed, man.

Fundamentals have changed.
Robotaxis will be a thing on 8/8
Model 2 next gen vehicle will be revealed soon.
Cybertruck is in production.
Optimus is cooking.

Interest rates are in the 7-8% and incentives have vanished so demand slowed down exactly like Elon expected couple earning ago.

The only thing that has permanently changed is that we don’t hear about Gordon Johnson in the news anymore.

 

[Mengy]

I think that FSD alone cannot be the savior of Tesla. It is a very simple napkin calculation:
$100 a month for 5 years is only $6000, and the FSD take rate may be not that high, let's say 30%. Of the 6M cars already sold, many of them (HW2 or earlier) are not capable of activating V12.x, or cannot fully exploit the capability of FSD V12.
In short, not helping the revenue very much. Maybe help gross margin, but probably 0.3x or less. Unless, in the future every car sold by any car company has to be autonomous capable and TELSA makes a big money on licensing FSD. I don't think that happens in 15 years or 20.

So, what I really want to say is that Optimus is more likely to be the killer application, and FSD MUST be a helper to the dawn of Optimus. Optimus has way more applications than FSD.
The problem is, FSD is improving so fast because TESLA has so much driving training data., but I don't see TESLA having more data on training robots to do human work than other companies (most likely, industrial/factory works). Maybe it does, but I don't see an illustration.

If we cannot find the connection between "FSD success" to "Optimus training/development", as investors, we cannot bet on that Tesla will do better than other Robot projects of other companies. In that case, put the majority of your money on TSLA at current price is very risky.

Uh, you haven't done the math on Robotaxi's once FSD reaches Level 5, have you?

Hint: FSD can very much truly massively be the savior of Tesla, if FSD can get to L5.

 

[Musskiah]

I personally cannot agree that "The number 1 question this forum answers is "why should you invest in Tesla and why you shouldn't invest in other similar companies."
I think this forum's purpose is for investors who have involved in TSLA to help each other have a better performance. So, at some point of time, a TSLA investor should sell all of his shares or at least, cut some positions, wait for a better time for entrance.
And, if the fundamentals have changed (though everyone has a different ruler/scale of that), quit investing TSLA.
At this time point, fundamentals really changed, 3/Y don't have growth, CT is ramping up slowly, China sales are going down, FSD revenue is not certain. And the company is pivoting to autonomous. The evaluation is definitely changing, investors should be careful not to take more risks than they can sustain.

I, who has 4000 shares now, hope that $140-ish will be the bottom this time.

As an investor, you should evaluate your performance. We all know that TSLA has 10x or 20x growth since 2012 or so, but how about the past 3 years?
And how is that compared to other companies, such as Meta, NVDA, or just MSFT?
Just reiterate that you are a long-term investor doesn't help your performance.

Regarding weekly, quarterly, or yearly delivery numbers... if up to now you cannot see that 2024 is on the track of "delivering less than 2023", then you are probably blocking your own eyes by your own will.

I think that FSD alone cannot be the savior of Tesla. It is a very simple napkin calculation:
$100 a month for 5 years is only $6000, and the FSD take rate may be not that high, let's say 30%. Of the 6M cars already sold, many of them (HW2 or earlier) are not capable of activating V12.x, or cannot fully exploit the capability of FSD V12.
In short, not helping the revenue very much. Maybe help gross margin, but probably 0.3x or less. Unless, in the future every car sold by any car company has to be autonomous capable and TELSA makes a big money on licensing FSD. I don't think that happens in 15 years or 20.

So, what I really want to say is that Optimus is more likely to be the killer application, and FSD MUST be a helper to the dawn of Optimus. Optimus has way more applications than FSD.
The problem is, FSD is improving so fast because TESLA has so much driving training data., but I don't see TESLA having more data on training robots to do human work than other companies (most likely, industrial/factory works). Maybe it does, but I don't see an illustration.

If we cannot find the connection between "FSD success" to "Optimus training/development", as investors, we cannot bet on that Tesla will do better than other Robot projects of other companies. In that case, put the majority of your money on TSLA at current price is very risky.

I have one word for you: Megafactories

 

[Musskiah]

Major battery manufacturer makes announcement that will impact Tesla's future: 'We will do it soon'

LG Energy Solution has announced it will begin producing a powerful new electric vehicle (EV) battery for Tesla at its Ochang factory.

www.thecooldown.com

LG is manufacturing 4680s for Tesla both in S Korea and the US.

"In addition to its Ochang (S Korea) factory, LG Energy Solution will also manufacture the 4680 cells at its Arizona Gigafactory, currently under construction, with plans to expand production globally."

This is on top of Panasonic planning a third factory and aiming for 200GWh capacity in the US by 2030. There is much evidence the battery glut is coming very soon. Not only will this drive down COGS, but it will also relieve the battery constraint on production.

 

[Musskiah]

Does this forum thread have a rule that non-tesla investors/stock owners aren't/shouldn't post? This is an honest question as wouldn't having everyone holding the same long position end up having a certain level of confirmation bias? If there is such a rule, that's fine as well and I'd stop posting/replying, but as I mentioned before, these forums from many car makes (or other stocks/companies) end up looking like the same echo chamber if you read other investor threads for any company. I personally don't think that's a positive.

I welcome contrarian data to stress test the investing thesis. I welcome contrarian opinion to challenge my own. When either are presented, prepare for rebuttal. The answer lies somewhere in between.

 

[ZeApelido]

Anyone should post, however one shouldn't post with the sole intent of discouraging established investors from being investors. That's like me going to a wedding and yell "she used to be a hoe" right before he says "I do". Yeah maybe she used to be one and soon to be husband already knows, but the intent in this case is not to inform but to disrupt. We can't really say not discussing of her "hoe" status during a wedding ceremony is considered being in an echo chamber.

Do you know this from experience?

 

[rentierparasit]

That's my take as well. There's so many companies building cheap ice cars, I don't see any of them setting valuation records. In the long run, my understanding of automotive manufacturing says that there's no moat that you can hold and everyone ends up on the same margins. Which is proven right now. Not to mention that there's some dealer margins hidden in Tesla's figures since they sell direct.

Tesla's valuation has always been dependent on the capability to deliver autonomous driving with a relatively cheap sensor stack. Focusing on that is good, although I must admit i don't see the reasons to not do both. It's not like they don't have the money right now. I'm also concerned on the development outoput of the company. The past 3 years, although marking excellent profits haven't shown new products at the rate at which you'd expect from even a normal car company.

Hi, Alexxs88 --

> Tesla's valuation has always been dependent on the capability to deliver autonomous driving with a relatively cheap sensor stack.

There's no shortage of people who thought -- and still think -- that Tesla will sell 20MM cars in 2030.

Yours,
RP