Not surprising to read this from someone who just joined the forum 3 days ago, but lets just say you should do some research. The idea that 'legacy auto could make a profit on EVs if they felt like it' is just horrendously badly informed. They have a unionized workforce who despise EVs, they have a legacy dealership network that despise EVs, they have no experience of battery manufacturing, they have no experience with software or over-the-air updates or gigacasting or running a charging network, they have legacy factories designed around ICE cars, they have no vertical integration, and their brands are associated with petrol and diesel and emissions cheating scandals.
spoiler: No, they are nowhere close to being competition to Tesla. And the gap is widening rapidly due to progress with FSD, steer by wire, 48v, gigacasting etc.
When GM release a BEV that is cost and performance competitive with Tesla, has FSD12-equivalent capabilities, excellent software, a 5 star safety rating, and can be sold at the same profit margin as Tesla, then I'll care. Until then, they are just an embarrassment.
Nice summary, Cliff. It’s good to remind all of us that Tesla is not present at all in a number of major automotive markets, that Tesla is not even well represented in all areas of the US, much less in any other physically large country. The historical model of simultaneously delivering vehicles and Superchargers has worked essentially everywhere, with stores and Service Centers/ remote and mobile usually opened sequentially.
To those unfamiliar all this might well be perceived as ‘hopium’ or worse. These all have helped maintain positive cash flow in times that have bankrupted many less carefully managed companies.
Whatever the problems, market saturation is not one of them. Market staturation in US zip code 94207, probably. Norway postal code 0010 and adjoining, sure. Market saturation is, for Tesla, local. Not even approaching that globally.
But, they say, how about Model Y world’s best selling car, now threatened. Imagine that, all the competitors are distributed in more than 100 countries, Tesla in fewer than 40. There are always naysayers on various subjects but some huge global car markets are not served at all including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia and others. Most of the large ones in market terms (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Brazil) could easily absorb ~50,000 cars a year of existing models, were there to be supporting infrastructure. Then expanding supporting infrastructure in the US could absorb many more.
Bluntly, the ‘market saturation’ crowd are infpcorrect on the basics. Infrastructure sells cars, especially Tesla. Open stores and service centers, let people see mobile service, and they’ll come. Lest I leave out crucial points: 1) answer local telephones (kill unresponsive automated system); 2) train sales stall and keep them; 3) see point (2) for service, and really deliver and (3) have training professionally delivered for all staff, prospects and customers.
That’s really all. The basics, First Principles! It’s not magic, does not require constant fiddling with prices and returns to the fantastic customer service Tesla once had, but with vastly better scale economics.
Really! There is NO market saturation, just problematic sales and service execution coupled with inadequate distribution.
