Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

And thats when I finally give up and put you on ignore, because anyone who thinks FSD is not [old troll]

Not surprising to read this from someone who just joined the forum 3 days ago, but lets just say you [new troll]

Have you considered that you are in fact replying to the same troll? Or at least agents from the same troll farm. These accounts are like sharks teeth: there's always one more in the back row waiting to move to the front.

The troll's goal is to goad you to write a reply that is longer than their post. This creates the illusion of a legitimate conversation for any casual passers-by. Yet the reality is, these trolls simply repeat the same debunked talking points ad nauseam, often for years or even decades.

How to win? Brief zingers slash and burn like the cat. A reply in a single sentence is even better.

Everyone on this forum should read about how to expose troll farms. Start here by reading the section 'Trolling As A Business Model':

Investigating Digital Threats: Trolling Campaigns

In order to identify, analyze, and expose trolls and trolling campaigns, we need to understand how trolling became a business model.

gijn.org

And for those innocent souls who don't believe troll farms exist, well Benjamin Franklin said it best: 'a fool and his chairs are soon separated'.

Cheers to the long and wary!

 

[hobbes]

If the discussion is from the perspective of those who are invested (or strongly contemplating investing) in Tesla, this forum is a perfectly reasonable place for such discussion, as those people have a seat at the "Investors Roundtable" forum to have such discussions.

If the discussion is from the perspective of those who do not have such an investment nor do they wish to have one, then by all means, have such discussion in a separate, more appropriate forum instead of trying to take a seat at the "Investors Roundtable" forum. Perhaps that other, non-investors forum could even best be hosted on another server as well...

What is the difference in a discussion educating one whether to buy into TSLA for the first time (prospective investor) vs buying more (current investor)?

 

[hobbes]

@The Accountant

 

[sunwarriors]

Please, one should not disregard others' concerns simply because they are not yours.

I have owned Teslas since 2017, and while range is not an issue for my day-to-day uses, it is most certainly an issue for some of my once-a-month-or-so uses. With a nod to the moderators, I won't re-ignite the endless discussions of why more SuperChargers are desperately needed and will be for the foreseeable future, or the endless discussions of why I would immediately upgrade to a 500mi version and perhaps enough others would as well to justify production, etc.

Instead, I would simply ask everyone to consider that when someone conveys a concern of theirs that is not a concern for us, perhaps the other person is horribly mis-informed. But also, perhaps, just maybe, the other person actually has a concern that is valid for them, and one shouldn't just be dismissive of it out of hand.

That's the overall attitude here really. Even with an EV, there are valid reasons for some people to not get one. In CA, being in a rental with no way to charge at home (really the best way/overnight) is #1 I feel to not get an EV. I'd guess there are more renters than home owners in general. Even though charging infrastructure is great in CA, for folks who don't drive a ton, WFH, it's still an unnecessary hassle, not to mention, not cheap (someone please share what the cost is per kWh in CA during the peak daytime/early evening). From what I've seen, it's not that cheap.

I'd guess, and say that sitting at a supercharger alone as a smaller, young female is also not ideal in the middle of the night to get cheaper charging rates. I wouldn't want my daughter to be charging alone in the middle of the night for sure. Gas stations aren't that great neither, but if you don't drive a ton, you don't buy much gas neither and that's 5 minutes.

Same for the proposed no brainer buy for $99/month, $299/month cost etc. Not everyone has to commute, drive a ton, hates driving and they still have to buy a car. $299/month won't be purchased by people who'd rather spend that on something that's more useful/valuable for them (obvious, but seems less so to many folks here). This could replace someone's entire month of entertainment, take trips, you name it for the lower income ladder folks.

 

[Musskiah]

One famous Elon quote is “Failure is an option here. If things are not failing you are not innovating.”

This remains one of my top 3 Elon-isms of all time

 

[Musskiah]

Waymo has self driving robotaxis in multiple cities. Tesla has none. Who gives a rats ass how they accomplish it. Waymo can do it today, Tesla cannot.

#remindmein2025

Seems like another shark's tooth here, eh @Artful Dodger ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Birds aren't real, but FSD is:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782145506145157210

 

[EVMeister]

What is the difference in a discussion educating one whether to buy into TSLA for the first time (prospective investor) vs buying more (current investor)?

It's not "educating one whether to buy into TSLA" if they're a closed-minded bear who has already made up their mind. You can't reason with or "educate" some people, when their purpose is simply to rile people up and spread vitriol.

 

[Musskiah]

Birds aren't real, but FSD is:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782145506145157210

Reminds me of the arcade game Frogger

 

[Artful Dodger]

Waymo has self driving robotaxis in multiple cities. Tesla has none. Who gives a rats ass how they accomplish it. Waymo can do it today, Tesla cannot.

Lol, do you know what's lower than a rat's ass? Waymo's profitability. They're geofenced, can't scale easily, and have no plan for how to become profitable.

The difference is Tesla won't do a robotaxi until it's scalable and profitable. Then, it'll be HELLO WORLD!

 

[heltok]

Have you considered that you are in fact replying to the same troll? Or at least agents from the same troll farm. These accounts are like sharks teeth: there's always one more in the back row waiting to move to the front.

The troll's goal is to goad you to write a reply that is longer than their post. This creates the illusion of a legitimate conversation for any casual passers-by. Yet the reality is, these trolls simply repeat the same debunked talking points ad nauseam, often for years or even decades.

 

[hobbes]

Uh, if you truly believe this then you aren't paying attention at all. And where in the hell did Elon say FSD is getting farther away from being solved?

After thinking about that I guess that might be a way of making fun of Elon‘s earlier way-too-optimistic prediction for FSD to be completed-still quite misleading.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jeff Lutz thinks the Q2 price cuts will be revenue positive:

Math: If you believe @Tesla is going to produce 92,000 MY in the US in Q2 and:
1. Configurator prices are net $1,000 lower (on 4/1 prices incr by $1K, and decr by $2K yesterday)
2. Tesla removed inventory discounts across a DOI (Days of Inventory) of 26 days conservatively at $3K per vehicle. Tesla has about 75 production days per quarter that are rev rec. Tesla ran inventory discounts for 6 quarters in a row so it’s not like it was a one-time thing.
3. Tesla presents a similar or the same inventory vehicle when someone tries to configure a new vehicle

The math says this is a net +$31M INCREASE in ASP. Don’t get fooled by MSRPs… I’ll put the math below…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782139911186833770

 

[ConnectingDots]

(ImageNet graphs etc)

Point being, there's a lot of empirical data hinting that training FSD to a robotaxi level could take a lot longer than people think.

TBH this isn't a good analogy.

 

[wipster]

No downside risk, Max flex.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780494285487448184

Why the Market gets the Robotaxi - Compact Car story Totally Wrong

While most people think Tesla has chosen between Robotaxi and Compact Car, the reality is that Tesla is making one model that is technically so similar it is technically both. Adding controls is a quick fix you can do anytime without a huge time effort.

Tesla will have one production line for both cars with the unboxed process and from the outside, you won't see any difference at all. In fact, the test production line already exists. There is no delay of the compact car at all, it is coming.

Elon uses a smart risk-avoiding strategy because if FSD takes for whatever reason longer, Tesla can sell the car as a compact car, and if FSD goes as predicted fast, it's a no-brainer to use it as such because of the expected 5 times higher margin and incredible profit.

Vehicles that are sold as compact cars can be any time later reused as full-blown Robotaxis and Tesla may even only lease them to have enough vehicles coming back if needed.

There is no bet or gamble but an awesome strategy. $tsla

h/t @avoigt

First (and I know I'm a few days late), welcome back Lodger! You have been missed my friend!

b. And by announcing just RT (which will be built simultaneously as $25K car), Tesla drastically reduces any Osborne effect. Can you imagine what would have happened to sales had Elon said they were announcing 25K car on 8/8? Sales and SP would have plunged even more than they have! Perhaps now we're seeing the real reason for all of the FUD, the oil companies and the competition think they have Elon's chess moves figured out and are scared to death.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Some thoughts on FSD price drop:

• Every step tesla take to get more FSD usage suggests they see value in larger FSD datasets, which means the moat between Tesla and everyone else is even larger
• Every step to bring on more usage suggests that Tesla has gone from compute constrained to compute abundance. Thats a MASSIVE change.
• The more people who have FSD, the less 'redundant' all that hardware that ships with every vehicle is. Without FSD a lot of that compute capability was wasted.

I know we all watch the earnings numbers and listen to the call like hawks, and I will this time too, but increasingly it feels like its all irrelevant. What really matters is the rate of FSD progress. FSD V12.3.5 is out now. Likely another 10 updates before the new 'autonomy day'.
It really is starting to feel like that FSD is solved for real this year. Even if only in the US, thats a massive deal. I'd also be very surprised if we don't have FSD in China, and maybe some other locations this year.

Yah. Because what we are getting in Canada is absolutely no where near to any kind of autonomy. There will need to be a bunch more 11 to 12 type jumps in progress before it is anywhere close.

 

[AndrewZ]

Jeff Lutz thinks the Q2 price cuts will be revenue positive:

Math: If you believe @Tesla is going to produce 92,000 MY in the US in Q2 and:
1. Configurator prices are net $1,000 lower (on 4/1 prices incr by $1K, and decr by $2K yesterday)
2. Tesla removed inventory discounts across a DOI (Days of Inventory) of 26 days conservatively at $3K per vehicle. Tesla has about 75 production days per quarter that are rev rec. Tesla ran inventory discounts for 6 quarters in a row so it’s not like it was a one-time thing.
3. Tesla presents a similar or the same inventory vehicle when someone tries to configure a new vehicle

The math says this is a net +$31M INCREASE in ASP. Don’t get fooled by MSRPs… I’ll put the math below…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782139911186833770

There are still 9 weeks of potential price adjustments coming in this quarter.

 

[InTheMiddle]

If the discussion is from the perspective of those who are invested (or strongly contemplating investing) in Tesla, this forum is a perfectly reasonable place for such discussion, as those people have a seat at the "Investors Roundtable" forum to have such discussions.

If the discussion is from the perspective of those who do not have such an investment nor do they wish to have one, then by all means, have such discussion in a separate, more appropriate forum instead of trying to take a seat at the "Investors Roundtable" forum. Perhaps that other, non-investors forum could even best be hosted on another server as well...

...

What is the difference in a discussion educating one whether to buy into TSLA for the first time (prospective investor) vs buying more (current investor)?

Minor difference between prospective investor and current investor is simply that the former wants to learn and potentially take a seat at the investor roundtable, whereas the latter already has a seat at the investor roundtable. Both should be welcome here.

Greater difference is between those two groups vis-a-vis the third group, those who do not have a seat at the investor roundtable (no investment) and do not want to potentially take a seat at the investor roundtable (no desire to invest). The challenges to a forum such as this largely arise from those only interested in barging in on the investor roundtable to explain to everyone who is seated/standing there why they should all leave the room because the roundtable is terrible in the first place, the roof above it is on fire, walls are falling down, etc. <Every analogy breaks down at some point...no, even in case of emergency there is still no need for non-investors to run in to tell everyone...the appropriate governmental regulatory bodies fill that role, etc. Take the analogy for what it can show, realize it's not perfect, etc.>

 

[Papafox]

Here are two factors that may affect this coming week's ER: the recent announcement by Tesla's board that the board has decided to move Tesla incorporation from Delaware to Texas and Elon's previous 2018 awards being voted on again by shareholders.

1) The Tesla board is making sure that it's apparent that it's doing its job and overseeing the company's important decisions when it took over the incorporation state decision (see this Brighter with Herbert Episode). Statements that M2 is still in play and the board will be involved in approving the go ahead for robotaxi manufacturing would relieve much of the concern that Tesla's future would be hugely harmed by Elon overoptimism about FSD. Even saying that the board WAS involved in the decision to proceed first with robotaxi would be helpful.

2) Elon's pay package is up for vote at a time when important bulls (Ron Barron through his son's comments and Dan Ives) are expressing worry about a decision allegedly already made to cancel M2 and proceed with just the robotaxi. If Elon wants to maximize his chance that his compensation vote goes his way, making statements that relieve the worries of these bulls would be critical. All he has to say is that M2 is still in play and that a decision to start robotaxi manufacturing is contingent upon certainty that FSD will be ready for prime time when robotaxis roll off the line. An alternative strategy would be to create a vehicle that is extemely similar between M2 and robotaxi variations and that Tesla can easily pivot manufacturing between the two based upon the status of FSD at the time. What scares analysts and investors who are not currently driving FSD v12.3.x is fear that M2 is canceled and FSD is still 5 to 6 years out. Elon absolutely has to address those fears.

Elon's canceling his India trip just prior to the ER is a positive because we really don't want a jet-lagged Elon leading the ER.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Jeff Lutz thinks the Q2 price cuts will be revenue positive:

Math: If you believe @Tesla is going to produce 92,000 MY in the US in Q2 and:
1. Configurator prices are net $1,000 lower (on 4/1 prices incr by $1K, and decr by $2K yesterday)
2. Tesla removed inventory discounts across a DOI (Days of Inventory) of 26 days conservatively at $3K per vehicle. Tesla has about 75 production days per quarter that are rev rec. Tesla ran inventory discounts for 6 quarters in a row so it’s not like it was a one-time thing.
3. Tesla presents a similar or the same inventory vehicle when someone tries to configure a new vehicle

The math says this is a net +$31M INCREASE in ASP. Don’t get fooled by MSRPs… I’ll put the math below…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782139911186833770

ASP is not in millions. Smh.