Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

And just like that the shadows disappear and the fear subsides...

We're getting eggs now
In little boxes
Ever since that rooster
Came into our yard.

 

[Todd Burch]

The Canada version says 460hp. Is that normal to have 2 different HP/performance?

Canadian horses are stronger due to less consumption of soft drinks.

 

[Musskiah]

They did nothing with the app for five years, but *now* it's happening for real

Yes, just like FSD and RTs, it took longer. Just like Boring Tunnels. Just like Energy. Just like Cybertruck. Just like Juniper. AND CYBERVans. AND A.S.S. (Actual S S.), AND GigaIndia. AND GigaMexico. AND Semi. But.it.is.all.coming

 

[Musskiah]

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To build the most capable real world video AI on the planet?...worth it! I kind of wish they spent more.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Let's just say he's trending for the wrong reasons

 

[Singuy]

That's... not how any of that works dude.

Didn't you go to business school?

What do you think osborning even is?

Because it has nothing to do with what you just wrote.


Osborning would mean announcing the BMW 2 made 3 series sales crash because everyone waited for the cheaper car. They did not. In fact by offering more cars at more sizes and price points, even though they look quite similar overall, total sales went UP.

Hence why this concern if Tesla does it doesn't make much sense.

I am confident Tesla's total sales will skyrocket due to them offering a whole new pricing segment. However this pricing segment may take away from Model 3/Y sales if the next gen car is too good.

I'm not saying BMW 2 made the 3 series sales crash, but it did take away some 3 series buyers. I'm not even sure if BMW actually meaningfully contributed to higher sales number with 10+ models when Tesla can do the same with 2. This is why I am saying there are hidden osborning all over the place in their portfolio. If BMW were to sell 5x more than Tesla(or even 2X more) with 5x the number of car models, then maybe you have a point.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I am confident Tesla's total sales will skyrocket due to them offering a whole new pricing segment. However this pricing segment may take away from Model 3/Y sales if the next gen car is too good.

I'm not saying BMW 2 made the 3 series sales crash, but it did take away some 3 series buyers. I'm not even sure if BMW actually meaningfully contributed to higher sales number with 10+ models when Tesla can do the same with 2. This is why I am saying there are hidden osborning all over the place in their portfolio. If BMW were to sell 5x more than Tesla(or even 2X more) with 5x the number of car models, then maybe you have a point.

I could definitely see the cheaper model cannibalizing sales from the 3 just like the 3 did to the S. The pie gets larger, but the relative size of the slices changes.

 

[Musskiah]

I am confident Tesla's total sales will skyrocket due to them offering a whole new pricing segment. However this pricing segment may take away from Model 3/Y sales if the next gen car is too good.

I'm not saying BMW 2 made the 3 series sales crash, but it did take away some 3 series buyers. I'm not even sure if BMW actually meaningfully contributed to higher sales number with 10+ models when Tesla can do the same with 2. This is why I am saying there are hidden osborning all over the place in their portfolio. If BMW were to sell 5x more than Tesla(or even 2X more) with 5x the number of car models, then maybe you have a point.

I think this plays into the thesis that perhaps long term, Tesla wants to sell more of the highly efficient, optimized for RT, compact design on the 3/Y platform, or perhaps a new platform.

 

[Knightshade]

I am confident Tesla's total sales will skyrocket due to them offering a whole new pricing segment. However this pricing segment may take away from Model 3/Y sales if the next gen car is too good.

I would expect them to take vastly MORE sales away from all the other cheaper cars on the market.

Which are mostly ICE cars.

Which is...kind of the point.

 

[Singuy]

I would expect them to take vastly MORE sales away from all the other cheaper cars on the market.

Which are mostly ICE cars.

Which is...kind of the point.

Oh absolutely, the next gen is suppose to have 10x the volume just based on what other companies have done with their lower segment cars.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$25k car early 2025 or late this year!

CyberCab!

Ohh gee, that's exactly what Ron Baron told us in November 2023. I expect an apology on my desk in the morning from Lost Gerber, Meat kevin, and Beary Black...

 

[nativewolf]

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@unk45 I think you had stated, before you became concerned about advertising, that FCF would be the metric you watched. I suppose this is not surprising but...it sure went south quickly.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla owners will be able to speak to their existing cars, and the cars will understand you, speak back, and act on your wishes.

In my case, the car is going to demand that I wash it.

 

[anthonyj]

Alright guys I successfully reversed the stonk. I’ll be back with super bullish rhetoric when it’s starting to feel toppy. Back to b!tching about my Cybertruck stuck in Cyberjail over a stupid rivet.

 

[nativewolf]

About mission: CT also helps to establish a supply chain for a 48-volt system. Which reduces use of copper tens of kilograms per car. And helps with energy effiency. It would be very difficult to start that chance with a high volume model.

That is actually relevant and a good point. Our heavy equipment is all 24 v and it makes one wonder why not 48v.

 

[nativewolf]

I would expect them to take vastly MORE sales away from all the other cheaper cars on the market.

Which are mostly ICE cars.

Which is...kind of the point.

Yes this is the point. We need sales to expand. Dramatically

 

[Tachyon]

I believe the cheaper/ toned down versions of M3 and MY will not have any effect on sale of higher priced ones.
Osbourning is definitely a concern when there is a different looking cheaper version . But when both the lower and higher priced versions look similar, people though they start off with the cheaper version, the human psyche will make them add on bells and whistles and in the end , end up getting closer to the higher priced version.
OEMs use this tactic to lure people into paying for stuff they don’t need .
It takes utmost discipline to stick to your needs and not fall prey to your wants .

 

[Tony73]

I never thought about this. But Tesla is clearly building a ride hailing app that is competitor to Uber. It announced it at earnings call.
Tech stack of a ride hailing app is easy/Okay level of difficulty to create. But operations is tricky to get right. Takes some effort to get the operations right.

Would be interesting to see TSLA quickly build this service with test pilot drivers. Was a part of an early project within FREE NOW (Uber of Europe) and DAIMLER for autonomous. Working for a ride hailing is an interesting experience.

Here is some data I compiled.

Public Ride-Hailing Companies (as of April 2024):

1. Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) - Market Cap: $147 billion
2. Lyft, Inc. (NASDAQ: LYFT) - Market Cap: $6 billion
3. Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: GRAB) - Market Cap: $13B billion
4. Didi Global Inc. (NYSE: DIDI) - Market Cap: $25.2 billion

Total Market Cap of Public Ride-Hailing Companies: $192 billionPrivate Ride-Hailing Companies (last known valuations as of August 2023):

1. Ola Cabs (India) - Last Known Valuation: $7.3 billion
2. Gojek (Indonesia) - Last Known Valuation: $10 billion
3. Bolt (Estonia) - Last Known Valuation: $4.75 billion
4. inDriver (USA) - Last Known Valuation: $1.23 billion
5. Cabify (Spain) - Last Known Valuation: $1.4 billion
   6. FREE NOW (Europe) - Last Known Valuation ±$1 billion

Total Ride Hailing Market Cap ±220 B.

The important question is, What percentage of Ride Hailing valuation could Tesla capture soon?

The real question is what the unit economics of a fully autonomous, electric ride sharing network will be ?

 

[elasalle]

Genuine folks will continue posting, TROLLS will disappear

earlier today wifey send me SeekingAlpha link headlined - maybe buying TSLA was a mistake

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Higher sales this year than last year."
1.8M ->2.1M? Calling @Artful Dodger

Lol, why tag me? Why not at Troy or that Tyrone dude? They're the ones that didn't believe Tesla had installed production capacity over 2.5 million vehicles per year at the end of 2023. It was foolish to believe Tesla didn't have it, and wouldn't use it. FA/FO.

DM's now open* for apologies. Expect I-told-you-so's in return.

/jk DM's not open