Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

Any challengers? This is current IRA. Wasn't there a 99% out there recently?

since 2016. We don’t have IRA in , in IRA equivalent SMSF since 2019. lol .

I did sell the whole lot during the COVID panic in March/April 2020, but bought back + some LEAPS in May 2020. I did sell some about a couple of weeks ago to ensure that if there is an emergency need for funds, I don’t have to worry about selling at the bottom.

Oh. And Home and Model Y funded by above mentioned LEAPS

 

[Robertj]

So, FSD licencing to other manufacturers, when? It's Ford, isn't it? Some pressures in other companies? I guess Tesla can't develop FSD hardware and software at once with many partners.

Listen to the call

Tesla said very easy to add cameras and computers to other brands cars , time it takes other manufacturers to design and build vehicle to incorporate these features

Eg Sign HOA this year for licensing , 3 years for new car to be released featuring it by other manufacturer

 

[MD70]

If the inventory increased by $2.7B and say the average vehicle price is $50,000, does that mean Tesla was unable to sell 54,000 vehicles in the quarter?

 

[jamaatta]

Listen to the call

Tesla said very easy to add cameras and computers to other brands cars , time it takes other manufacturers to design and build vehicle to incorporate these features

Eg Sign HOA this year for licensing , 3 years for new car to be released featuring it by other manufacturer

Ok, thanks! Couldn't listen a call because of time difference. I'm just catching up and saw Elon's(?) comment about negotiatons with one OEM. If FSD licencing is an easier prosess, that's of course better for a.long term. But short term pressure for licencing won't be so high..?

 

[NicoV]

Sawyer Merritt thinks the new vehicle slated for end of year/early 2025 will be the refreshed Model Y with other new models to follow later. That would be disappointing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782948693466866042

What else could it be?
Model 3 has just been refreshed and still doesn’t use the megacasts that make the larger Model Y so much cheaper to produce.
Model Y is on its own refresh trajectory. It would make sense to already include stuff like 48V architecture and steer-by-wire.
Model Y is already built with several types of battery. Just add a smaller type and you have a cheaper car with elements from the robotaxi tech.
Remove the second row seats and you have a less costly mini-van. It is already sold like this in France, just make it available everywhere.
The new car models have probably already been in development for a long time. Maybe already with the intention to include some variations in body type. The current doom-and-gloom environment may have forced Tesla to announce this.

 

[SOULPEDL]

For the Tesla app it will be available to all Tesla owners to put their car in the system or out frequently

	should clarify is that Tesla will be operating the fleet
16:29	um so you can think of like how Tesla um think of Tesla like I know some
16:35	combination of Airbnb and Uber meaning that um you know there'll be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and
16:42	operates in the fleet there'll be some number of cars and then there'll be a bunch of cars where they're owned by the
16:49	um end user but that end user can add or subtract their car to the fleet whenever
16:56	they want and they can decide if they want to only let the car be used by friends and family or only by five star
17:03	users or by anyone um and any at any time they could have the car come back
17:09	to them and be exclusively theirs like an Airbnb you know you could rent out
17:15	your guest room or not anytime you want um
17:21	so uh as our Fleet grows we have 7 million cars going to 9 million cars

Thanks, I got all that the first time.

My question was more along the lines of any Hardware in the cabin planned or wheel/pedal enclosures etc? Waymo separates the front seats from the back with Plexiglas as far as I recall, so those exclude both front seats. There's also a rear seat monitor, ours have none but I guess the App would work? I don't see why we couldn't use all seats with some mods.

Off to bed, exciting day!

 

[CitizenKane]

From Volvo cars report issued today: "First-quarter gross margins on the company’s EVs improved to 16 per cent from 7 per cent in the same quarter last year, which is among the best in the industry. This reflects the strong customer demand for the new Volvo EX30 SUV, which is set to bring in gross margins of 15-20 per cent, as well as improved margins on the EX40 and EC40 models. Volvo Cars will continue to work diligently to further close the margin gap with combustion engine-powered cars. "

Looks like Volvo Cars has the same gross margin on their EVs as Tesla. There are other similarities, such as negative cash flow due to inventory buildup. All in all quite interesting to see a legacy player and compare it to Tesla. Results Centre

 

[AudubonB]

Thanks, I got all that the first time.

My question was any Hardware in the cabin planned or wheel/pedal enclosures etc? Waymo separates the front seats from the back with Plexiglas as far as I recall, so those exclude both front seats. There's also a rear seat monitor, ours have none but I guess the App would work? I don't see why we couldn't use all seats with some mods.

Off to bed, exciting day!

Me, @ggr AND @Right_Said_Fred all in the same car? It, and this thread, would crash for sure.
Besides, I don’t understand your suggestion of using a seat with me but I’m not sure I like its sound.

 

[Ellec]

What else could it be?
Model 3 has just been refreshed and still doesn’t use the megacasts that make the larger Model Y so much cheaper to produce.
Model Y is on its own refresh trajectory. It would make sense to already include stuff like 48V architecture and steer-by-wire.
Model Y is already built with several types of battery. Just add a smaller type and you have a cheaper car with elements from the robotaxi tech.
Remove the second row seats and you have a less costly mini-van. It is already sold like this in France, just make it available everywhere.
The new car models have probably already been in development for a long time. Maybe already with the intention to include some variations in body type. The current doom-and-gloom environment may have forced Tesla to announce this.

One of the WS analysts asked this on the CC, something like "Will the new models be refreshes/Variations on the Model 3/Y" but it was bluntly rebuked. I definitely noticed frostier responses to the WS analysts questions than the ones to the investors questions, not as pointed as the iconic “Boring, bonehead questions are not cool. Next?”

 

[Ellec]

From Volvo cars report issued today: "First-quarter gross margins on the company’s EVs improved to 16 per cent from 7 per cent in the same quarter last year, which is among the best in the industry. This reflects the strong customer demand for the new Volvo EX30 SUV, which is set to bring in gross margins of 15-20 per cent, as well as improved margins on the EX40 and EC40 models. Volvo Cars will continue to work diligently to further close the margin gap with combustion engine-powered cars. "

Looks like Volvo Cars has the same gross margin on their EVs as Tesla. There are other similarities, such as negative cash flow due to inventory buildup. All in all quite interesting to see a legacy player and compare it to Tesla. Results Centre

The difference is volume, they only sold around 15k of their EX model in Q1.

Polestar which is their EV brand had a terrible Q1.

Polestar EV sales fall 40% in Q1 2024

 

[Buckminster]

Me, @ggr AND @Right_Said_Fred all in the same car? It, and this thread, would crash for sure.

Surely TMC rules prevent you all travelling together to maintain primogeniture.

 

[spacerfc]

From Volvo cars report issued today: "First-quarter gross margins on the company’s EVs improved to 16 per cent from 7 per cent in the same quarter last year, which is among the best in the industry. This reflects the strong customer demand for the new Volvo EX30 SUV, which is set to bring in gross margins of 15-20 per cent, as well as improved margins on the EX40 and EC40 models. Volvo Cars will continue to work diligently to further close the margin gap with combustion engine-powered cars. "

Looks like Volvo Cars has the same gross margin on their EVs as Tesla. There are other similarities, such as negative cash flow due to inventory buildup. All in all quite interesting to see a legacy player and compare it to Tesla. Results Centre

Isn't Volvo owned by Geely? And EX30 is built in China, so it's not really a legacy player, it's another Chinese EV company.

(It's surprising how little awareness there is for all the western brands bought up by China, I wonder if there could be a lesson here for Tesla...)

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Isn't Volvo owned by Geely? And EX30 is built in China

Yes, and the EX30 is a Zeekr platform, also Geely.

Still Volvo-Geely is on the right track imo, moving forward with electrification, attractive models and taking considerable market share in Europe, mainly at the expense of VAG.

 

[aubreymcfato]

From Volvo cars report issued today: "First-quarter gross margins on the company’s EVs improved to 16 per cent from 7 per cent in the same quarter last year, which is among the best in the industry. This reflects the strong customer demand for the new Volvo EX30 SUV, which is set to bring in gross margins of 15-20 per cent, as well as improved margins on the EX40 and EC40 models. Volvo Cars will continue to work diligently to further close the margin gap with combustion engine-powered cars. "

Looks like Volvo Cars has the same gross margin on their EVs as Tesla. There are other similarities, such as negative cash flow due to inventory buildup. All in all quite interesting to see a legacy player and compare it to Tesla. Results Centre

I've seen a few new Volvos in Italy too. Good for the mission if it's good, one less ICE SUV sold.
But I'd wait a few quarters to see how it plays out in terms of numbers and demand.

 

[alexxs88]

What if there are things you haven't considered that would make this theory appear ill-founded?

Consider the advantages of a task-specific design, like the London Cab, that has been perpetuated for decades, because it works. What is it that makes it more appealing to customers than using a standard sedan? Ease of access, interior room to accommodate persons or parcels, consistency in the quality of the experience and the expectations all figure into what makes it successful.

Who are the target users, and, who are the target buyers of a Robotaxi?

What advantages would a vehicle produced in significant quantities with no controls for humans have over normal cars in applications where the majority of customers consider a service preferable to ownership?

Look into information on Robotaxis from sources like Ark Invest, and Tony Seba for what to expect and why to expect it as part of the future.

Of course, that's why I'm here, in a chat with long time investors, to get angles that I might have overlooked and to offer angles that they might have overlooked. I'm getting tired at how many times I have to repeat this I've liquidated my short position with an average price of 153$, so pretty happy with the results (started shorting at 240$) and now have a small long position, but that's more of a trade.

I'm not saying a dedicated platform wouldn't help. What I'm saying is that having a car that drives itself is such a huge competitive advantage that it genuinely doesn't matter what platform you put it on initially. Especially when they have the Model 3/Y which has a great compromise between cost, storage space and room for 4 passengers to ride in. There's a reason why it's called London Cab and not just Cab. Although it provides an improvement over normal vehicles, it's not a big enough differentiator for people to care.

Apologies, but I have Ark's 2024 Tesla's valuation model (created in 2020) in front of me and I can't take anything they say seriously. It's hilariously bad in its core principles.

 

[alexxs88]

"Higher sales this year than last year."
1.8M ->2.1M? Calling @Artful Dodger

I'd be very surprised to see this. Genuinely don't even know how they could pull it off. The demand for M3 and MY is not expected to increase significantly and there aren't any new models even announced, not to mention ramped up.

 

[raffiniert]

Elon is looking out for humanity in the long term.

Most people are looking out for themselves in the short term.

TMC trolls are carrying water for their short handlers.

Don't be deceived.

Only a few hours since you posted this, but I'd say a lot more positive sentiment since last night.

I am still fighting for my voting rights in Switzerland, does anyone know if a "confirmation of holding" has ever sufficed to vote, and if so, how did you execute the vote?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reuters is S-M-R-T...

{TESLA CFO MARTIN V TO RESIGN}

LOL, Roto-reuters. Martin Viecha isn't the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) he's VP of Investor Relations. I wonder if the FCC can do anything about these obvious attempts to manipulate the public? Haha, just kidding... Reuters had to reestablish their ability to lie, and besides they're trolling Elon to call them out on it.

Who wants to bet that Reuters will leave their false headline in place until 400 odd websites reproduce the LIE under syndication, and only then will Reuters fix their mistake?

Jolly jokers...

 

[Maarten]

The sweat on many investors' brows can take a break for now.
The fear of a significant drop after the release of the first-quarter earnings is off the table.

There's been an enormous amount of FUD circulated lately, creating unrest in the human brain.
I, too, found myself somewhat concerned by it, but not enough to start selling.

I'm not going to predict what the future holds; that's always a shot in the dark.
But for now, I'm holding onto TSLA, unless I have significant expenses to cover.
The relentless drive for innovation and efficiency within Tesla, coupled with their consistent ability to attract top talent, continues to inspire confidence in me.

 

[alexxs88]

<Mod edit: Snarkful post deleted>

So you expect sales growth in 2024 over 2023? Friendly wager for 50 EUR that there will be YoY decline in deliveries? Charity of winner's choice.

Elon and Tesla have ulterior motives. They can't afford to have the stock price drop too much, not when they're going to spend like crazy on autonomy with unclear timelines.