Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobbler]

Dark and St..rainy days coming!!

 

[Woop-D-Woop]

Those are interesting facts, thank you.
A tidbit about Gojek: we use that a lot in Bali, easily done with our phone.
However, the public ride-hailing is only a part of what they are offering, so that will be a lot less than $10 billion.
The photo shows some of the in total 17 services they offer.
3 In Food Delivery and Shopping, 6 in Transport and Logistics, 7 in Payments and 1 in Environmental Products.
All very easy to use and cheap. For example: during Covid Gojek delivered the virus tests to our front door.

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Same goes for “Grab”; we’re in Thailand atm and it is great for ride hailing, but has several other services too… not everywhere, but in most population centres and growing.

 

[alexxs88]

Let's not play games. USDequiv of 10 shares per end of year closing?

No, because I'm not a gambler. The idea of a friendly wager is that it's inconsequential to both parties. 1000-2000$ is 1-2x the average net monthly wage where I live and even though I earn significantly more than that, my parents and friends don't.

 

[hobbes]

Model 3 has just been refreshed and still doesn’t use the megacasts that make the larger Model Y so much cheaper to produce.

And turn it into hatchback form factor in the process

 

[uscbucsfan]

Listen to the call

Tesla said very easy to add cameras and computers to other brands cars , time it takes other manufacturers to design and build vehicle to incorporate these features

Eg Sign HOA this year for licensing , 3 years for new car to be released featuring it by other manufacturer

We know in the real world it's more difficult than that for Tesla. Just look at how long it takes to do FSD on thr CT and Hughland. It's not plug and play.

 

[Ellec]

Dark and St..rainy days coming!!

View attachment 1041234

Shorty never learns, the've have their face ripped a dozen times and still a new batch comes along and falls for the FUD.

 

[jerry33]

As a cyclist, love to see this, impressive. One advantage of AI over humans: It is always patient.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782555812843688301

You got it. I don't cycle in Texas for obvious reasons. (I'm might if $TSLA really goes down well below double digits.)

 

[hobbes]

From Volvo cars report issued today: "First-quarter gross margins on the company’s EVs improved to 16 per cent from 7 per cent in the same quarter last year, which is among the best in the industry. This reflects the strong customer demand for the new Volvo EX30 SUV, which is set to bring in gross margins of 15-20 per cent, as well as improved margins on the EX40 and EC40 models. Volvo Cars will continue to work diligently to further close the margin gap with combustion engine-powered cars. "

Looks like Volvo Cars has the same gross margin on their EVs as Tesla. There are other similarities, such as negative cash flow due to inventory buildup. All in all quite interesting to see a legacy player and compare it to Tesla. Results Centre

Wonder if one should still think of Volvo as a legacy player? Majority owner is Geely...

Volvo Cars - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Usain]

And of course the screenshots prove seriousness. They’ve started. It’s probably a functioning version, in testing.

The app is the easy part. The back end is a little harder.

But the part I'm most interested in is the neural net. We don't know if Tesla has started teaching the car how to be a robotaxi with pickups and drop-offs. I'm hoping we learn more about that on 8/8.

 

[Baumisch]

The last 30+ pages have been interesting regarding 8/8 "robotaxi unveil" - but I don't think we need a physical car unveil tbh.

1. Consensus not only in here but in the broader investor community seems to be that Tesla is a safe bet to produce a bleeding-edge 25k car with industry leading scale/technology/efficiency/marging etc ... this alone is amazing, but I don't think a physical car is needed on 8/8 - the hardware is not the issue of doubt holding the stock back.

2. Software for robotaxi on the other side - there is even among the bulss in here no concensus if L4/L5 is ready until 2025, let alone robotaxi for the existing HW3 fleet - we need a software announcement i.e. launch of the robotaxi network for US customer fleet.

Here is what I wish what we need for our 10x in a year from 8/8:

10am open doors to tesla event campus, a few hundert positive selected people, all registered with latest tesla app version and account
12am Musk opens the event, Autopilot team does 1h of flashy presentation of the progress on all fronts, last slide is the tracking values for CriticalDissengagements or similar metric against average US and it's exponentially imrpoving
1pm Musk comes to this slide on stage again "and this is why we launch robotaxi in the US on existing HW3 fleet today" mic drop
1pm - 3pm Demo event - musk shows slides and then the app, 40 ModelX HW3 6-seat vehicles lined up, noone in driver seat, tesla employee on passenger seat - 4 seats in the back for participants. geo fenced to 500 meter around factory, everyone can book for 1 destination and back, no drop off of course, everyone stays in the car. minds are blown
4pm Real mind-blown happesn: Musk shows app again, asks how rides were, crowd cheers - then theres a blue car on his app visible approaching "finishing ride nearby. Musk klicks on car: "weird, no Tesla - but nice color ..." - Jim Farley exits the sliding doors of an Ford minivan EV, praises Tesla engineers working with ford for NACS and explains how this car uses Tesla MCU and HW4 for infotainment (with ford blue apps), navigation, safety assist, L3 and if the ford customer subscribes to FSD, can be added to the robotaxi fleet - minds blown
Musk does not do Q&A - thanks everyone and joins Jim Farley in the minivan to leave the stage.

Not saying this will happen, but that's what we need from a stockprice perspective - together with first robotaxi public zones going onling following with a "NACS FOMO" style of OEM announcements the following months to 10x the stock - no Optimus needed and for sure not a hardware presentation needed as well.

I hope I'm blown away on 8/8

After yesterdays's call I am excited!!

2 of the things I hoped for 8/8 are already announced:
- Robotaxi App Update (and showing Model Y on the screenshot)
- OEM in talks for FSD License

 

[Favguy]

Let's not play games. USDequiv of 10 shares per end of year closing?

That's more like it, let's see him put his money where his mouth is!

 

[Buckminster]

After yesterdays's call I am excited!!

2 of the things I hoped for 8/8 are already announced:
- Robotaxi App Update (and showing Model Y on the screenshot)
- OEM in talks for FSD License

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Also that Tesla will own a portion of the fleet outright. For me, the natural allocation is if you don't have a steering wheel then you won't have as much flexibility in managing your investment and dependent on Tesla everyday.

 

[CitizenKane]

Wonder if one should still think of Volvo as a legacy player? Majority owner is Geely...

Volvo Cars - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

My interpretation of the term legacy player is a car maker who has a long history of making cars and needs to transform operations from ICE / PHEV to EV, instead of someone like Tesla, Lucid or Rivian who start fresh as 100% EV makers. If that is the correct definition, then Volvo is a legacy player irrespective of who owns it. I think that makes sense, if BYD buys BMW tomorrow, BMW will still be a legacy player, right?

 

[alexxs88]

Hilarious! You're not a gambler?, yet here you are shouting about how you shorted TSLA... You're either a gambler or untruthful, which is it?

How is investing on a thesis gambling? Expecting a stock to go down because of a valuation model is as much gambling as it's expecting it to go up based on an a valuation model. The stock is down 33% from when I started the short, how do you think I lost money?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shorty never learns, the've have their face ripped a dozen times and still a new batch comes along and falls for the FUD.

Lol, shortzes don't just fall for the FUD, they stuff their cheek pouches full of it and run up the trees... while simultaneously missing the forest.

 

[raffiniert]

How is investing on a thesis gambling? Expecting a stock to go down because of a valuation model is as much gambling as it's expecting it to go up based on an a valuation model. The stock is down 33% from when I started the short, how do you think I lost money?

The stock is up 1000+ % for investors with the right mindset.

 

[CHGolferJim]

What else could it be?
Model 3 has just been refreshed and still doesn’t use the megacasts that make the larger Model Y so much cheaper to produce.
Model Y is on its own refresh trajectory. It would make sense to already include stuff like 48V architecture and steer-by-wire.
Model Y is already built with several types of battery. Just add a smaller type and you have a cheaper car with elements from the robotaxi tech.
Remove the second row seats and you have a less costly mini-van. It is already sold like this in France, just make it available everywhere.
The new car models have probably already been in development for a long time. Maybe already with the intention to include some variations in body type. The current doom-and-gloom environment may have forced Tesla to announce this.

A less sci-fi Roadster?

 

[amolina]

Those are interesting facts, thank you.
A tidbit about Gojek: we use that a lot in Bali, easily done with our phone.
However, the public ride-hailing is only a part of what they are offering, so that will be a lot less than $10 billion.
The photo shows some of the in total 17 services they offer.
3 In Food Delivery and Shopping, 6 in Transport and Logistics, 7 in Payments and 1 in Environmental Products.
All very easy to use and cheap. For example: during Covid Gojek delivered the virus tests to our front door.

View attachment 1041219
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Yes. That is correct. Uber's valuation as well is not just Ride Hailing. but also it's food delievery business.
I think the Ride hailing business is probably 60%-70% of the total valuation of ±220B.

 

[hobbes]

I'd be very surprised to see this. Genuinely don't even know how they could pull it off. The demand for M3 and MY is not expected to increase significantly and there aren't any new models even announced, not to mention ramped up.

You don´t expect that personally (gut feeling) or what research is that based on?

 

[amolina]

The real question is what the unit economics of a fully autonomous, electric ride sharing network will be ?

Definitely better than with a driver. So the valuation should be much higher than the current ride hailing business as the margins are going to be higher