Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Gotta say I love how thinking has evolved on this---from "Waymos limitations to make driving easier are hilariously bad and Tesla won't have these problems" to "It's fine if FSD limits itself the way Waymo does to making driving easier"


Going back all the way to the since departed KarenRei, FactChecking, and others in 2019-

Uh, that's a rider report that directly supports my claim. What about it being usually a 50-100 foot walk, and sometimes 1000 feet or so (a third of a kilometer / fifth of a mile!), confused you? That's like a bus, not a taxi.

I'll repeat: Waymo does not go directly from source point to destination point, but only between specified points that are easier for it to drive between.

For example, Waymo can drive with (I'm certain) fewer disengagements per thousand miles. But that's because it is only capable of driving pre-designed routes that conform to significant preconditions. The disengagement rate -- which seems to be the primary comparison to determine who is on top -- would almost certainly make Tesla look like they are worse than anyone else.

Naturally, Tesla is not geo-fenced, much less restricted to certain routes with only designated stops, etc. IMO they are much farther along and a sane valuation would, in consequence, value $TSLA much higher than it currently does.

we don't know why Waymo is avoiding unprotected left turns:
Too little processing power of their vision NNs? Too little confidence in LIDAR input? Limited field of view of LIDAR systems, which makes 90 degree turns problematic? Or just (justified) caution?

Your assumption that Waymo not performing unprotected left turns cannot possibly be due to a technological limitation where Tesla's chip and data advantage might provide a break-through is unsupported.

This is why companies like GM, Waymo is struggling to make left turns, and I believe they do NOT make left turns as a result. Even with their geofenced tech their cars can only make right turns. The left turns are too complicated for them.

I live here in Chandler, this is Waymo central. I think the riders basically have to find the Waymo stops along the mall fronts, so not terribly convenient. And from the experiences I've seen out there, who wants to get stuck in a Waymo because of a Cone in the road, you can't exit the vehicle? It seems so restrictive to me, taking the longer routes to avoid certain intersections. I bet it sucks.

Now 5 years later with Tesla still unable to reliably make unprotected lefts, the narrative is "eh that's fine, just make all rights- who ever said otherwise???"

 

[Singuy]

Gotta say I love how thinking has evolved on this---from "Waymos limitations to make driving easier are hilariously bad and Tesla won't have these problems" to "It's fine if FSD limits itself the way Waymo does to making driving easier"


Going back all the way to the since departed KarenRei, FactChecking, and others in 2019-
















Now 5 years later with Tesla still unable to reliably make unprotected lefts, the narrative is "eh that's fine, just make all rights- who ever said otherwise???"

Tesla makes many unprotected lefts without any problems. Certainly performs better than Cruise that managed to crash their car 3am in the morning making a UPL.

The UPL in question right now is particularly difficult due to high speed cross traffic with an obstructed view, and being 6 lanes in length. This is a pretty high bar to set and currently no other robotaxis from any company has yet to demonstrate they can do this. Tesla is testing this UPL daily because they know if it can solve this, it'll solve the majority of the most difficult UPLs in the U.S as this turn has everything that's challenging all in one.

Anyways, Tesla managed to get this UPL done with 90% reliability with hard coding in V10. There's no reason to believe AI cannot solve this problem (besides you claiming...."but Tesla has been working on this since V10!". V12's normal stop light UPLs vastly out performs V11.

You keep using this 5 years as some kind of measuring tool when YOU know that V12 ai coded controls happened a little over a year ago.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We just got 12.3.5. Kinda surprising as we see lots of Facebook posts on 12.3.6 going out now. Hmmm

 

[Cattledog]

Or this could be a deal in development for sometime, and EM flew in to ink the deal (akin to head of state meetings). Doubt it was made from scratch in a day………

Of course, but if the deal were completely done I'm not sure he goes. I'm betting he rode in the car, FSD in control, cool as a space cucumber. And also, he's probably one of 10, or 2, that even get the deal started. He goes, he pushes it over the edge, here we are +$25/share. We all want more of this Elon.

 

[EVWatcher]

We just got 12.3.5. Kinda surprising as we see lots of Facebook posts on 12.3.6 going out now. Hmmm

I just got 12.3.6 on a USS car. Does yours have USS?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I just got 12.3.6 on a USS car. Does yours have USS?

Yep. 2022 model Y

 

[jamaatta]

Tesla makes many unprotected lefts without any problems. Certainly performs better than Cruise that managed to crash their car 3am in the morning making a UPL.

The UPL in question right now is particularly difficult due to high speed cross traffic with an obstructed view, and being 6 lanes in length. This is a pretty high bar to set and currently no other robotaxis from any company has yet to demonstrate they can do this. Tesla is testing this UPL daily because they know if it can solve this, it'll solve the majority of the most difficult UPLs in the U.S as this turn has everything that's challenging all in one.

Anyways, Tesla managed to get this UPL done with 90% reliability with hard coding in V10. There's no reason to believe AI cannot solve this problem (besides you claiming...."but Tesla has been working on this since V10!". V12's normal stop light UPLs vastly out performs V11.

You keep using this 5 years as some kind of measuring tool when YOU know that V12 ai coded controls happened a little over a year ago.

I've never in my life seen live or driven the UPL like Chuck's case. I don't think it would never pass a city planning process in Finland. Never. So does it have to be a show stopper (or at least a drag) for FSD?

(Yes, I know, the EU regulation is our show stopper at the moment...)

 

[mongo]

I stopped watching his videos when I realized it is far faster to go to the light and turn left with all the other cars seen in Google street view instead of trying to be quicker but more dangerous even as a human driver. It's a whopping .2 miles. During rush hour probably actually faster than waiting, definitely safer.View attachment 1042962

I was mostly responding to the "take a right and do a U-turn" approach which I recall Chuck had said was more dangerous (but can't find the quote).
I agree your route change looks sensible from an ease of maneuver point of view; however, how usable is it really during rush hour? While there are there are around 10 side streets (not counting parking lots) that connect to the highway along this 2.5 mile stretch of subdivision, there are only two lights to turn left at and this one doesn't have a dedicated arrow.
Chuck is close to the northern one, but most of the residents are less so. The manuver is going to happen and people need cars that can do it, even if he needs it less.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I was under the impression volume is somewhat live but open interest doesn’t update until the following day. [they can’t make it too easy for us. ] That might explain the disparity you’re seeing.

I’m sleeping comfortably tonight with my selling of 200c on all my shares for the week.

Sold early for sure but free money is free money.

It is, but if 200K shares at one price trade in a day, yet the next day only shows 30K in Options Interest, that's what I mean by not sticking, lots of action though.

 

[alexxs88]

There is a difference between annual production and deliveries and fleet size.

The difference is each year X million cars get added to the fleet where X > 2 and X <= 20.

That's already factored in my calculations through the 10 year lifetime for FSD for each car produced.

 

[SPadival]

IMHO, Chuck is not material to the company & this discussion is better off in the FSD thread.

Meanwhile, some people got fired:

"Starting at 10 AM EST Tuesday, I will ask for the resignation of any executive who retains more than three people who don't obviously pass the excellent, necessary and trustworthy test."

“We need to be absolutely hard core about headcount and cost reduction,” Musk wrote in an email to staff Monday evening.

Rebecca Tinucci, Senior Director of EV Charging at Tesla, and Danial Ho, Head of New Products, are both departing from Tesla this week.

Source: The Information (I hope the person who leaked the email gets fired)

 

[SpaceNuts]

IMHO, Chuck is not material to the company & this discussion is better off in the FSD thread.

Meanwhile, some people got fired:



Source: The Information (I hope the person who leaked the email gets fired)

I imaging the one who leaked the email is either Rebecca or Danial.

 

[insaneoctane]

Wow, impressive ramp...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784954876109180949

 

[alexxs88]

If you don't recognize the FSD V12 is a game-changer then you don't understand Tesla at all.

There's nothing I've seen in videos or data that makes me think they're on the cusp of getting where Waymo was 4 years ago in terms of capabilities. That is running a level 4 system. Not to mention level 5. So although V12 is a huge step forward, there's still a long way to go. And there are no guarantees on whether it's even possible for them to reach level 4 with the current approach. And I'm surprised people are pushing back so hard on the latter part. How can they be guaranteed to reach a milestone with a solution that NOBODY else has tried before?

Good heavens no. I said nothing of the sort! Were to to,pay attention Insaid that the margin between ‘dealer cost’ and ‘MSRP’ is the their primary source of profit. ‘Dealer cost’ is rarely cost to dealers just as MSRP is rarely sales price.

From the data published by another poster, I can see that the MSRP to invoice difference is anywhere between 3 and 8%. So on average you can assume a conventional manufacturer loses 5.5% top line compared to Tesla's direct model and a fraction of that would've been gross margin. But I do get your point (and agree) that it's a complicated calculation to make. If you have any dealership network that is publicly listed, I'd love to delve a bit into their reports and see what I can find.

Interesting comparison. I will take your lead: All cancer treatments have to do to have enormous value is improve outcomes, especiqlly save lives; which they have done dramatically, which is why they garner enormous cost that people are willing to pay. Similarly, FSD just needs to save lives, which is what it did for me 2 times (at least), which is why I find great value in it.

The bolded part is a strong statement to make. Conventional L2 systems are pretty good at reacting to frontal collisions, detecting cross traffic. What they can't do is take evasive maneuvers, but statistically you end up with just a few cases over an impressive number of miles driven. Don't want to discount those situations, every life is important, but people seem to discard those situations as "it will never happen to me".

Oh yeah, why is that?

Because I think the only timeline that matters from a financial perspective is the one for widespread L4 deployment. And although V12 is certainly a step forward, the timeline for widespread L4 deployment is certainly greater than 3 years out.

 

[SPadival]

Wow, impressive ramp...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784954876109180949

With a little bit of help from Uncle Xi, nothing is impossible

Xiaomi's electric vehicles are produced by state-owned car manufacturer BAIC Group

 

[Thekiwi]

More layoffs, including 500 people in the supercharger group (?)

“Elon Musk has dismissed two Tesla senior executives and plans to lay off hundreds more employees, frustrated by falling sales and the pace of job cuts so far, The Information reported on Tuesday, citing the CEO's email to senior managers.

Rebecca Tinucci, senior director of the electric vehicle maker's Supercharger business, and Daniel Ho, head of the new vehicles program, will leave on Tuesday morning, the report said.

Musk also plans to dismiss everyone working for Tinucci and Ho, including the roughly 500 employees who work in the Supercharger group, The Information said. It was not clear how many employees worked for Ho.

Tesla's public policy team, which was led by former executive Rohan Patel, will also be dissolved, the report said.

"Hopefully these actions are making it clear that we need to be absolutely hard core about headcount and cost reduction," Musk wrote in the email, the report said. "While some on exec staff are taking this seriously, most are not yet doing so."

Ho joined Tesla in 2013 and was a program manager in the development of the Model S, the 3, and the Y before being put in charge of all new vehicles, while Tinucci joined in 2018 as a senior product manager, according to their LinkedIn profiles.”

 

[SPadival]

Musk also plans to dismiss everyone working for Tinucci and Ho, including the roughly 500 employees who work in the Supercharger group, The Information said. It was not clear how many employees worked for Ho.

Curiously, Soy posted this & then deleted the post, including the quoted post about the leak

 

[Dikkie Dik]

China had a good week, 14.800 for April 22-28

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785226228577992872

 

[hobbes]

I stopped watching his videos when I realized it is far faster to go to the light and turn left with all the other cars seen in Google street view instead of trying to be quicker but more dangerous even as a human driver. It's a whopping .2 miles. During rush hour probably actually faster than waiting, definitely safer.View attachment 1042962

I think the idea is to give FSD a hard problem to solve and see how it improves over time, not to get out of his neighborhood as efficiently as possible. There may be other locations where it is not possible to avoid an unprotected left turn, so it does have a value for FSD being able to perform that maneuver.

 

[Krugerrand]

China had a good week, 14.800 for April 22-28

View attachment 1043053

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785226228577992872

Wait, what!? You mean there’s demand again? Like miraculously just appeared? But I was promised Chinese demand was all dried up and absolutely no cars were put on boats the first three weeks of the quarter. Zip. Zero. Nada.