Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

I wonder how this whole supercharger thing will affect Elons compensation package vote. People are getting out there pitchforks.

Kyle from out of spec reviews mentions that other OEM’s are rethinking their move to NACS. I guess that’s one way of keeping future supercharger use down.

 

[capster]

Yes, and they have now required Tesla to file their motion on June 7 before the vote. So Tesla cannot use the results of the vote in their motion and likely cannot reference it in the hearing which will be based on the filings.

Seems like a hostile move by the court. It doesn’t appear justice is being sought.

 

[MP3Mike]

Yes, and they have now required Tesla to file their motion on June 7 before the vote. So Tesla cannot use the results of the vote in their motion and likely cannot reference it in the hearing which will be based on the filings.

But does it really matter? Isn't this all about how much to pay the plaintiffs? It isn't an appeal where they can get the decision overturned.

In fact, I think this portion has to get resolved before Tesla can appeal and introduce new evidence.

 

[MP3Mike]

Kyle from out of spec reviews mentions that other OEM’s are rethinking their move to NACS. I guess that’s one way of keeping future supercharger use down.

I would think that could be very problematic for them. Anyone who purchased an EV from an OEM that announced their commitment to adopt NACS and get access to the Supercharger network would have a case to demand a buy-back if the OEM backed out and didn't provide the Supercharger network access.

 

[elasalle]

When is the last day to vote?

No emails yet …

 

[MC3OZ]

Sometimes "ignore" is like taking a shower after an 18 day trek through the wilderness - very refreshing and relaxing.

And time saving...

 

[SPadival]

So, a pivot toward a vehicle with two castings, offering the flexibility to offer several models with a variety of wheelbases from the same two castings is considered a "retreat" is it?

Whatta bunch of yahoos.

But dontcha know it is because of "falling sales and rising competition"

 

[Mengy]

I don’t know why we wittingly or unwittingly keep repeating this FUD. Giga Mexico is paused because Tesla are trying out the unboxed manufacturing method in Giga Texas first. This is a logical, rational, financially & technologically sound reason to pause Giga Mexico.

Yes, but Elon has now confirmed the unboxed line is 100% only for Robotaxi's. If Mexico will only be building unboxed vehicles then it will likely be building RT's only. If Mexico was going to build 3's, Y's, or CT's then there would be little reason to delay its construction, other than possibly waiting for interest rates to fall so demand increases.

Also, the second statement is also incorrect as Elon clarified in the recent CC - Tesla has existing capacity that can be boasted up to 3 million EVs, maintaining the 50% growth run rate.

I feel like banging my head against a wall when I see this FUD repeated.

Elon stated the "affordable car" will bring production up to 3 million EV's, utilizing unused capacity at current plants on current lines. He did not give a timeframe for that (other than starting in late 2024), so while 3,000,000 is 50% over 2,000,000, this production ramp could take place over many years, not the 50% CAGR we were expecting just one year ago.

Its okay to bang your head against a wall if you want to, but its also important to read exactly what Tesla and Elon are saying and witness what they are doing, rather than "fill in the blanks" with hope. Tesla is changing right now, as investors its important for us (IMHO) to analyze this with a disconnected POV rather than what we want or would like to see. Particularly without emotions clouding our judgements or rationale.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes, but Elon has now confirmed the unboxed line is 100% only for Robotaxi's. If Mexico will only be building unboxed vehicles then it will likely be building RT's only.

You only left out one word ..... initially.

So it might read like this:-

If Mexico will only be building unboxed vehicles then it will likely initially be building RT's only.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I don’t know why we wittingly or unwittingly keep repeating this FUD. Giga Mexico is paused because Tesla are trying out the unboxed manufacturing method in Giga Texas first. This is a logical, rational, financially & technologically sound reason to pause Giga Mexico.

Also, the second statement is also incorrect as Elon clarified in the recent CC - Tesla has existing capacity that can be boasted up to 3 million EVs, maintaining the 50% growth run rate.

I feel like banging my head against a wall when I see this FUD repeated.

People are still believing the 50% thing? Lol. That's been dead for awhile, mate.

If 50% CAGR applied, starting in 2020:
2020 - 500,000
2021 - 750,000
2022 - 1,125,000
2023 - 1,687,500
2024 - 2,531,250

No one believes 2.5m is happening in 2024.

And to add it to further, 50% growth from the 2.5m implies nearly 3.8m for 2025. No one believes that either.

 

[insaneoctane]

That superchargers are profitable? Is that a serious question?

Yup. How many years do SuC need to be operating before installation costs are recouped? What usage (cars or kWh per hr) is required to meet that estimate? I'm speaking from California where until I see the actual math, feel that the initial install cost PLUS the outrageous commercial "demand charges" that seem prohibitively expensive for the peaky nature of Supercharging PLUS the outrageous $/kWh costs PLUS maintenance, etc. make me a doubting Thomas...

 

[SPadival]

Yes, but Elon has now confirmed the unboxed line is 100% only for Robotaxi's. If Mexico will only be building unboxed vehicles then it will likely be building RT's only. If Mexico was going to build 3's, Y's, or CT's then there would be little reason to delay its construction, other than possibly waiting for interest rates to fall so demand increases.

You are mis-stating what Elon said. He said they will continue with the unboxed method for Robotaxis. i.e. in the interim, they will use the existing assembly lines & some next gen processes for the new vehicles (note plural) until the unbox method is production ready. This is sensible derisking from both unbox manufacturing delays and reaching max TAM for existing models under the current interest rate environment.

Also, Tesla has never said anything about building 3s, Ys or CTs in Giga Mexico. You dreamed it up. Why the hell would they build a new factory for the existing models when the TAM is limited and Model Y is already the best selling vehicle in the world, beating its nearest ICE rival that's half the price!!

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Yes, but Elon has now confirmed the unboxed line is 100% only for Robotaxi's. If Mexico will only be building unboxed vehicles then it will likely be building RT's only. If Mexico was going to build 3's, Y's, or CT's then there would be little reason to delay its construction, other than possibly waiting for interest rates to fall so demand increases.



Elon stated the "affordable car" will bring production up to 3 million EV's, utilizing unused capacity at current plants on current lines. He did not give a timeframe for that (other than starting in late 2024), so while 3,000,000 is 50% over 2,000,000, this production ramp could take place over many years, not the 50% CAGR we were expecting just one year ago.

Its okay to bang your head against a wall if you want to, but its also important to read exactly what Tesla and Elon are saying and witness what they are doing, rather than "fill in the blanks" with hope. Tesla is changing right now, as investors its important for us (IMHO) to analyze this with a disconnected POV rather than what we want or would like to see. Particularly without emotions clouding our judgements or rationale.

Once again you fill in the blanks with despair. He did not say the affordable car will bring production to 3 million evs. That makes it sound as if one product will singularly be responsible for any growth or lack thereof.

What he did say was that plans have been accelerated and production for several models was moved up from late 2025 start to early 2025 start, and possibly even in late 2024. These new models will include more affordable models (you can extrapolate that there will be more expensive models which will include the roadster). These models will use aspects of the next gen platform as well as aspects of the current platform and be able to be produced on existing manufacturing lines. The point he made was that this will increase efficiency and also allow them to reach 3 million vehicle production capacity without the need for new factories or new production lines.
This doesn't mean they won't build new factories.

I agree with you that it's important to read and listen to what Tesla and Elon are saying. That is not what you are doing.

 

[Mengy]

Once again you fill in the blanks with despair. He did not say the affordable car will bring production to 3 million evs. That makes it sound as if one product will singularly be responsible for any growth or lack thereof.

What he did say was that plans have been accelerated and production for several models was moved up from late 2025 start to early 2025 start, and possibly even in late 2024. These new models will include more affordable models (you can extrapolate that there will be more expensive models which will include the roadster). These models will use aspects of the next gen platform as well as aspects of the current platform and be able to be produced on existing manufacturing lines. The point he made was that this will increase efficiency and also allow them to reach 3 million vehicle production capacity without the need for new factories or new production lines.
This doesn't mean they won't build new factories.

I agree with you that it's important to read and listen to what Tesla and Elon are saying. That is not what you are doing.

I didn't say Tesla won't build new factories. I'm saying new factories might only make RT's, Megapacks, and Optimus going forward, not SX3Y or CT.

And I'm not "filling in any blanks with despair", my post earlier today was a theory I had. A THEORY, I've never once said it is a certainty or 100% what is going on, just that its a possibility given Elon's decisions and statements lately.

Dear Lord people.

 

[Musskiah]

People are still believing the 50% thing? Lol. That's been dead for awhile, mate.

If 50% CAGR applied, starting in 2020:
2020 - 500,000
2021 - 750,000
2022 - 1,125,000
2023 - 1,687,500
2024 - 2,531,250

No one believes 2.5m is happening in 2024.

And to add it to further, 50% growth from the 2.5m implies nearly 3.8m for 2025. No one believes that either.

There's got to be at least one person who believes.

 

[30seconds]

My 2c is that the Chinese EV companies are compressing profitability much faster than anyone is expecting and Elon is getting in in front of the coming super storm.

For example the BYD seal starts at about the same price as the Model 3 in China and the company is ramping up production to take on Tesla in Europe where the margins are currently much higher.

I think Elon is getting ready for the coming price war.

That means slimming the company to manufacturing at the current plants, FSD and probably Megapack. Everything else has to go. At least for now.

 

[SPadival]

Smart phones need towers, networks, sim cards, regulatory approval. etc.

Add limited physical spectrum that is owned by the government and is auctioned off to the highest *cough* politically connected *cough* bidders

 

[EVNow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785750284314030397

Strange - can’t help but feel Mr Hyde is now in charge.

 

[Opus BC fan]

After over 11 years on this forum, I believe I have comfortably desensitized to the FUD. There is no fear. There is no greed. The manipulations don't work on me anymore. The future for Tesla is looking good.

Humanity, not so much

The relentless distractions and FUD are annoyances of course. This Banal Superfluity can be muted a bit by using ignore. There are a lot of valuable contributors and insights to be appreciated by following this forum.

 

[Mengy]

You are mis-stating what Elon said. He said they will continue with the unboxed method for Robotaxis. i.e. in the interim, they will use the existing assembly lines & some next gen processes for the new vehicles (note plural) until the unbox method is production ready.

That is not what Elon nor Tesla said, they never used the word "interim". You are assuming that.

This is the exact statement from the Q1 2024 ER, page 10 under Products:

"We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.

These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.

This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.

Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy."


Tesla never once said the unboxed lines would be making RT's "in the interim", we can't assume that is what they meant. They are only stating the unboxed line will be making RT's while the 3&Y lines will be making the consumer affordable EV's. This is the plan they have told us so far.

Now, is it possible the unboxed lines might also make the affordable EV's down the road? Certainly. But as of right now we have no confirmation of that.