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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Anyone wish they had moved everything to Nvidia for a while and then rotated back here? I know, easy to say now in hindsight
Yes, but I don't have enough understanding of GPU's and processors to feel comfortable with it. I looked at it a while back and I think you would have needed to be an expert in chips and AI to honestly make this call.

The good news is the profits Nvidia is making have to come from somewhere at some point or they will not continue. LLM's are interesting but it seems like there will be lots of competition. With FSD I do believe Tesla has a lead which will be hard to overcome.
 
Your post sparked another idea in my head. What IF rear steering was being implemented for the robotaxi? It would benefit a lot from this feature to fulfill its intended purpose much better than 'regular' MY/M3.

Just a thought.
Well, a RoboTaxi could certainly benefit from all controls by wire. The steering wheel could remain in it's normal place, but turning it would have no effect, unless the system was in manual mode. The accelerator is already "by wire" so it would also be inert unless in manual mode. Not so much for the brake pedal, which today has a physical connection to hydraulics, but with "boost power off" it'd be really hard press accidentally, and could still be useful in an emergency. Or they'll convert that to "by wire" as well.
 
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I think people were more willing to put up with him running several companies when he was actually delivering results at Tesla and was not damaging the Tesla brand with his politics/culture war nonsense.

The fact is that Tesla has been performing poorly, even after Elon had the nerve to claim that demand still outpaced production (you know, when growth started slowing and then turned negative)... He needs to refocus and deliver results. We know he's capable of doing so, but then he needs to pull back from Twitter.
And stop snuggling up to the most powerful climate deniers in the land.
 
A data point. I was speaking w a manager in a Service Center Body Shop today. He specifically said he was not bothered by the layoffs, that they are still projecting massive growth in their business. That the attitudes there are not what “you see in the media.”

I will be onsite there later this week and judge for myself. I will also visit the showroom and regular Service Dept.
So, I was onsite today. First stop, body shop (had hail damage). Crazy busy. Second stop Service Advisor - not super busy. I will note it’s the same guy I worked with 3 years ago, which I liked. Had a question - asked and answered. Third stop - showroom. Sales guy said Wednesdays are Cyber delivery day - today there were 2. Saw one on the lot when I got there. Next week they expect 17. Interest rate promo reduced their Model Y inventory from 1000 to 120. Business is brisk.

Body shop guy gave me an Uber voucher so I could get home. Everyone was upbeat and pleasant. An enjoyable interlude to my work day..
 
I think people were more willing to put up with him running several companies when he was actually delivering results at Tesla and was not damaging the Tesla brand with his politics/culture war nonsense.

The fact is that Tesla has been performing poorly, even after Elon had the nerve to claim that demand still outpaced production (you know, when growth started slowing and then turned negative)... He needs to refocus and deliver results. We know he's capable of doing so, but then he needs to pull back from Twitter.
So you think the best way to motivate him to follow your direction is not paying him what he already earned? That's called extortion you know...

Besides, Tesla performing poorly has little to do with him, a lot of EV companies are performing poorly, including Chinese companies that sell really cheap EVs. You should thank Elon for having the foresight to start the work for alternative revenue streams for Tesla, i.e. FSD and Optimus, years before the current downturn.

But really all these has little to do with my original point, which is: Do you want Elon to be the CEO of Tesla or not? If you do, you should vote yes, because those who vote no do not.
 
Autopilot Safety:

Punchline: 1150% Safer than average humans in average cars, 750% safer than human-driven Tesla cars

"In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, a new safety record and a 16% improvement vs the previous all-time best. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, Tesla recorded one crash for every 955,000 miles driven. By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2022) shows that in the US there was an automobile crash approximately every 670,000 miles."

FSD safety data has got to be crushing it beyond this. Aug 8 will be very interesting indeed. Do we require 2000% safer than a human? 3000%? Does FSD have to drive more than 20M miles between crashes? How long do we let humans kill other humans with cars?

GOOSF7mXAAAjCaq.jpeg
 
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Its kinda cool that 'there is a disengagement every 200 miles' is seen as a criticism right now. Thats...pretty impressive.

It's quite impressive for an L2 ADAS. Teslas is, by far, the best one can buy here.

It's still abysmal for a driverless system however, which is the thing Tesla seems to be going all in on.


As I've said before, you dont need actual robotaxi reliability to see a HUGE boost to the company. Who in the world would use any other car than a tesla for working as an uber driver, when you are probably only having to touch the pedals or steering wheel 1 or 2 times a day? Insane to do ride hailing in a 'dumb' car.

I'm not sure "uber drivers who haven't already gone EV for fuel savings but WILL because they have to use the pedals less" is as much a company boosting market as you imply.


Who would buy any other car if they drive long distances?

Even EAP 5 years ago was already tremendously better than anything else out there for long highway trips- but again didn't seem to mean people stopped buying other cars (plus, again, this is a pretty small market of people anyway-- average American drives about 40 miles a day.


one engagement every 200 miles versus constantly hands on wheel and feet on pedals. Sometimes even (shudder) changing gears!

I agree with the sentiment that we might see a Tesla ride hailing service with safety drivers in the short term. Not a bad idea. And even if it was revenue-neutral, it means a constant parade of passengers getting to talk to a safety driver who explains how the Tesla is doing 99% of the work. Oh and BTW you can buy one for yourself...

Revenue neutral would be....a pleasant surprise... given the companies that've already had years and years of experience and a lot of volume running a human ride hail service (lyft and uber) have been losing money most of their existence.



People have the right, of course, to deny any existence or significance to the obviously high short interest that TSLA continues to experience. I was simply presenting irrefutable data.

You really weren't though.

You were presenting data by cherry picking a small window that refused to zoom out and recognize short interest is vastly lower than it has been for most of the history of the company- and then trying to dismiss the actual irrefutable data showing that it was over 20% for more than a decade.... during which Tesla grew like crazy despite SI over 20% of float

And then pretending that it being at under 4 percent today is some MASSIVE amount.

it's not. irrefutably.


If 3.9% short interest is, today, somehow killing the stock, how do you explain it thriving, including a HIGHER price than today, when SI was well into the double digits?

It's almost like actual financial performance is more much important to the stock price than % of float shorted or something.



Here's the since IPO chart-- with the current SI circled in red at the end.

You looking at that chart, and then claiming that is "high short interest that TSLA continues to experience" is the exact opposite of irrefutable.


sihere.jpg




Continually dismissing all the actual data debunking your thesis by just saying ok is...not a great look.


BTW-speaking of data

FSD safety data has got to be crushing it beyond this.


The only time Tesla published FSD accident rates (in their impact report) the FSD accident rate was higher than the AP rate.

This is kind of expected though because accidents are more frequent on city streets than highways (though tend to be more severe on highways due to higher speeds).
 
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Autopilot Safety:

Punchline: 1150% Safer than average humans in average cars, 750% safer than human-driven Tesla cars

"In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, a new safety record and a 16% improvement vs the previous all-time best. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, Tesla recorded one crash for every 955,000 miles driven. By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2022) shows that in the US there was an automobile crash approximately every 670,000 miles."

FSD safety data has got to be crushing it beyond this. Aug 8 will be very interesting indeed. Do we require 2000% safer than a human? 3000%? Does FSD have to drive more than 20M miles between crashes? How long do we let humans kill other humans with cars?

View attachment 1049739
I feel like this is deliberately unclear, but I am assuming this data is literally for autopilot and does not include FSD. Is there any reason to think I am wrong? If so I feel like the big reveal here is the next time we see this data for Q2 the jump could be significant
 
Shanghai Megapacktory is going to be built at Chinese pace.

 
Indonesia Megapacktory still in play. This has seemed likely, and now perhaps not far off, given Indonesia has such vast nickel deposits to offer in return
 
I wonder if NVDA permabulls go around thinking "GPU compute demand is infinite".

I have the following questions in my mind and I don’t know the answers but I have the gut feeling that the answers point to a relatively short term AI stock price spike (just like what happened a couple of years ago with EVs):
- How many companies can spend $1B on AI compute?
- Is it possible to build anything usefull with less money?
- How long before AI training is largely independent of the used hardware? We already see Keras having support for PyTorch, JAX and Tensorflow, with Apple’s MLX coming soon. Is Keras even used in those environments that deploy $1B AI hardware, I would expect that anybody willing to spend $1B will also write their own training software, since just finding 10% performance improvement would save $100M.
- How much compute does the competition use (Google TPU, Apple MLX, Tenstorrent, AMD Rocm, Azure, …) and how does that affect NVidia sales?
- Where’s the business model for AI use? It’s clear for Robotaxi’s, but what about LLMs, of image/video generation? How does the business model support the giant investments in training hardware and data collection?
 
Maybe it's already been written, but if you haven't seen it yet: Voting with Swissquote now DOES work!

Brief instructions:

1. Log in to your Swissquote account
2. Send a message to Swissquote

Suggested content:

Hello

According to the telephone information and subsequent message, it is possible to participate in the Tesla (TSLA) proxy voting by message.

I hereby instruct you to vote my [NUMBER OF SHARES] Tesla shares as follows and to send me a corresponding confirmation:

1. "FOR EACH COMPANY NOMINEE" → YES
A Tesla proposal to elect two Class II directors to serve
for a term of three years, or until their respective "FOR EACH COMPANY successors are duly elected and qualified ("Proposal NOMINEE" One").

2. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to approve executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis (Proposal Two).

3. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to approve the redomestication of
Tesla from Delaware to Texas by conversion (Proposal Three).

4. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to ratify the 100% performance-based stock option award to Elon Musk that was proposed to and approved by our stockholders in 2018 (Proposal Four).

5. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to ratify the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as Tesla's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 (Proposal Five).

6. AGAINST

7. AGAINST

8. AGAINST

Thank you for your quick response and confirmation.

Best regards
 
Maybe it's already been written, but if you haven't seen it yet: Voting with Swissquote now DOES work!

Brief instructions:

1. Log in to your Swissquote account
2. Send a message to Swissquote

Suggested content:

Hello

According to the telephone information and subsequent message, it is possible to participate in the Tesla (TSLA) proxy voting by message.

I hereby instruct you to vote my [NUMBER OF SHARES] Tesla shares as follows and to send me a corresponding confirmation:

1. "FOR EACH COMPANY NOMINEE" → YES
A Tesla proposal to elect two Class II directors to serve
for a term of three years, or until their respective "FOR EACH COMPANY successors are duly elected and qualified ("Proposal NOMINEE" One").

2. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to approve executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis (Proposal Two).

3. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to approve the redomestication of
Tesla from Delaware to Texas by conversion (Proposal Three).

4. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to ratify the 100% performance-based stock option award to Elon Musk that was proposed to and approved by our stockholders in 2018 (Proposal Four).

5. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to ratify the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as Tesla's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 (Proposal Five).

6. AGAINST

7. AGAINST

8. AGAINST

Thank you for your quick response and confirmation.

Best regards
Great! I have a Swissquote and a Postfinance accout and if I am right, Postfinance uses the Swissquote platform. So I will do this in both systems.
 
NVDA is like the alter-ego to current day TSLA, it really is more like 2020 TSLA.

But actually its better than that. Just constant, insane earnings growth, with no end in sight, AND the valuation never ended up bonky. NVDA at $1000 is like a forward PE ratio of 30, it's not that crazy. TSLA forward PE ratio in 2021 was 100 lolol.
NVDA is my second largest investment after TSLA. I bought a long time ago and am about 1,000% up on average. I have no complaints.
BUT
NVDA don't make anything. They are like Apple, they design amazing products that they get built somewhere else. There is potential existential risk if China decides to go all grabby about Taiwan.

The reason I don't buy more Nvidia, and one of many reasons I have no Apple, is that they are both dependent on suppliers that lie very very much out of their real geopolitical control.
Tesla is a much safer bet. They are nicely geographically distributed now. Mexico will make it even more so. Plus they make something we will always need: transport. Apple make luxury lifestyle products, Nvidia make super high end expensive tech with potential great future usage.

A massive global recession, or a war in Taiwan would absolutely crater the valuations of both companies, but I suspect Tesla would weather such events way better. This will be even more true once Semi is ramped. Semi is a sensible financial decision, even in recession. In a recession, people will buy cheaper EVs than the 3/Y.
 
Maybe it's already been written, but if you haven't seen it yet: Voting with Swissquote now DOES work!

Brief instructions:

1. Log in to your Swissquote account
2. Send a message to Swissquote

Suggested content:

Hello

According to the telephone information and subsequent message, it is possible to participate in the Tesla (TSLA) proxy voting by message.

I hereby instruct you to vote my [NUMBER OF SHARES] Tesla shares as follows and to send me a corresponding confirmation:

1. "FOR EACH COMPANY NOMINEE" → YES
A Tesla proposal to elect two Class II directors to serve
for a term of three years, or until their respective "FOR EACH COMPANY successors are duly elected and qualified ("Proposal NOMINEE" One").

2. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to approve executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis (Proposal Two).

3. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to approve the redomestication of
Tesla from Delaware to Texas by conversion (Proposal Three).

4. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to ratify the 100% performance-based stock option award to Elon Musk that was proposed to and approved by our stockholders in 2018 (Proposal Four).

5. FOR / YES
A Tesla proposal to ratify the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as Tesla's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 (Proposal Five).

6. AGAINST

7. AGAINST

8. AGAINST

Thank you for your quick response and confirmation.

Best regards

My bank (DKB) in Germany told me
In order for your securities to be eligible to vote, they must be held in the home depository on the record date.Currently, all of your shares are held in collective custody in Germany. This means that a change of depository is necessary in advance, at your own expense.
And supposedly it is now too late to transfer them.

I this something specific to German banks??? Would be surprised it only they keep the shares locally. Or is it an excuse because they don´t want to put up with the administative work?