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Tesla's new Strategy?!?!?

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That brings up another point: if mr impatient wants to plunk down his $115K to buy the top end Model S, he's not going to be eligible for the $7,500 Federal tax credit, because the loaners will be "used" vehicles. That's probably ok for the truly rich "I can't wait I need instant gratification" types, but it won't result in a huge volume of new sales to worry about... Most of them will probably wait the 4-8 weeks for factory delivery (they didn't get wealthy by squandering their money).

Also Tesla will have taken that $7,500 Federal tax credit, since they will be the registered "owner" of the loaner cars.

The should be able to keep the loaner cars under "demo" registration. I bought my Volt with 5500 miles on it. It was a dealer demo that had for 9 months. I received the $7500 tax credit.
 
I think this is a great announcement and helps improve Tesla's advantage. Having annual service be optional (while keeping the warranty intact) is great, especially since BMW and Audi bundle some maintenance with their cars.

The most surprising part for me was that they are enhancing the battery warranty to cover improper maintenance and/or keeping it at a low SoC. I think it's great to see this as it shows great confidence in what they are building. :biggrin:
 
In my state (MA), you can't have cars driving around with no plate, you can't use "dealer" plates, they are intended for the dealerships employees (test drives), so they will have to title the loaners in MA...

Except during test drives by definition they aren't driven by dealership employees. :confused: Whether a dealership even requires an employee to be in the car is up to them.
 
It strikes me that Tesla is trying to squeeze the car model into the consumer electronics model. I.e. lots of folks upgrade to the latest phone every year. I wonder if they are trying to make it easier to do that with cars.

People already routinely do that with cars, but usually after 2 or 3 years, and usually through lease programs.

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I'm very interested to see that Elon/TM has essentially just dictated what the depreciation rate is for Model S.

1% per month of age and $1 per mile

Yes, I keyed into that as well. I doubt Elon wants to encourage the market to set a high depreciation rate on the car a few weeks after he personally guaranteed its value.

Beyond that, my analysis of depreciation last year convinced me that the Model S is likely to depreciate much slower than a comparable ICE vehicle because of the relationship between depreciation and marginal operational costs.

Especially if batteries degrade as slowly as I expect, a new Model S being built 10 years from now should hold its value amazingly well. Unfortunately, current year Model S's will depreciate far faster than they should from an economic standpoint because the market will price the car compared to existing competitors (all of which are ICE) because of the complete lack of historical data on a Model S class of vehicle. As a result, the used car market for the next few years was likely to result in some amazing bargains for used Model S's.

Linking the value of the car to the Mercedes S Class, and pricing loaners according to this depreciation schedule both seem to be a conscious effort to peg the depreciation rate to a reasonable target until the market manages to figure out the true higher value of the car.
 
I expect the Model S to hold its value well. There are plenty of people who want one but can't afford to buy it new, and there is no other competition once used ones start becoming available because there is no other car in its class. I think a lot of people waiting for Gen III would jump at a Model S under $50k.

I also expect the earlier ones (first 10,000?) to become classic collector's items, as the car that sparked the EV revolution.
 
In my state (MA), you can't have cars driving around with no plate, you can't use "dealer" plates, they are intended for the dealerships employees (test drives), so they will have to title the loaners in MA...
I had the honor of being the first person to have a Model S loaner while mine was getting repaired. The car had Massachusetts MFG plates. Not sure if this is the long-term plan, but that's one data point.
 
I'm very interested to see that Elon/TM has essentially just dictated what the depreciation rate is for Model S.

1% per month of age and $1 per mile

Well, let's do the math for a $100K car: if you were to buy a 3 month old service car, and 100 miles per day average put on the car, that would be $100K - $3K - (100x90x$1) = $88K purchase price, or a 12% discount from new price for a 3-month old car.

But you'll miss out on the $7500 federal tax credit, so you're only saving $4500.

If you apply the math to a one year old loaner, it gets more interesting: $100K - $12K - (100x356x$1) = $52.4K purchase price, or a 48% discount from new price.

100 miles average per day is not unreasonable, because they have to valet drive the loaner to your home first. So, let's say you live 25 miles from the service center and 25 miles from your work, that's 100 miles put on the car if its a one-day service appointment.
 
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Beyond that, my analysis of depreciation last year convinced me that the Model S is likely to depreciate much slower than a comparable ICE vehicle....

I'm not convinced but these moves of guaranteeing the Mercedes value and -1 miles and -1 month might help.

What we saw with the Roadster early resales (before the market was glutted) was that the traditional used car market forces pushed the price down. I don't follow Leaf prices but I just read the volt resale prices are similar to ICE resales.
I do believe that the better EV propulsion system will show it's superiority and garner higher resale value eventually but when like we saw with Roadster, when someone wants to sell their car, they can only get what the market will bear and eventually just take the highest lowball offer so they can move on.

This might take another 6 years for the resellers to have the ability to assert themselves with real world used EV data.
 
I just thought of something else. If you have a car with problems ie. body gaps that you are not happy about, trade it in on the loaner you like. Wow. This could become a game changer.
That's a very good point. I'll give you another example.

  • Owner: I'd like to keep the loaner.
  • Tesla: But it's the same model and options as yours.
  • Owner: I'm aware.
  • Tesla: And it actually has more miles on it than yours.
  • Owner: I'm aware.
  • Tesla: I have to ask. Why do you want it?
  • Owner: The loaner has a spoiler. Mine is still on back order.

For the record, I have my spoiler; please don't hate me for it. I was channeling the spirits of some recent posts.

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How many of you thought before the announcement that you were going to keep your car at least for 8 years? And how many still feel that way? Would be an interesting poll question...
If I had bought a low or moderately optioned non-Signature vehicle, I certainly would be thinking much < 8 years about now.

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If you apply the math to a one year old loaner, it gets more interesting: $100K - $12K - (100x356x$1) = $51.4K purchase price, or a 48% discount from new price.
Elon's SWAG was 2-3 mo. is how old the loaners will get (i.e. they come out of the rotation or they get bought up). So I doubt we'll see that big of a discount.

That said, I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out. I'll definitely be considering a used X whenever I can find one around $20K.
 
100 miles average per day is not unreasonable, because they have to valet drive the loaner to your home first. So, let's say you live 25 miles from the service center and 25 miles from your work, that's 100 miles put on the car if its a one-day service appointment.

Tesla uses pickup trucks with trailers to deliver cars, no reason to think they will be doing this any differently.
They have to assume the Model S they are picking up could possibly be immobilized/undrivable, so they have to plan for that situation. In this case no miles are put on the loaners during delivery or pickup, since they are trailered. Of course the ICE truck used to tow the trailer is getting a lot of mileage put on it...
 
could you bring you car in for service an take the loaner 85P with all the bells an whistles and drive 2000 miles for a few days? The value of your car would not be reduced and then you could buy the loaner at a discount.

Highly unlikely. They would probably record the odometer upon passing you the loaner and if you decide to keep it, you pay based on the odometer recorded at the point where you took the key regardless of how many miles you drive thereafter...
 
Brilliant move by Elon and team on service! It is difficult to scale up service and is easier to just produce more cars. By making service optional he just lowered the cost of ownership and they'll making a lot more money just selling more cars. Unlike other cars they can just remotely check to make sure everything in the car is OK and u don't have a lot of broken cars. Kudos to Tesla!