The argument *against* a 2nd gen Model S & X

[Jabbahop]

Well Apple still makes Macs despite being a devices company. They are profitable and have a built-in audience of upgraders plus a smaller audience of new adopters who desire something different/better than an iphone/ipad. There are tens/hundreds of thousands of existing S and X owners who are just waiting for a reason to jump back into a new upgraded S/X. Maybe not as big a market but certainly one with potentially high margins and high brand appeal.

 

[Brando]

Let me define generation for you then, a new body and platform. Problem is Elon is letting it be known the ROI seems not to be there for a new S "generation".

Citroen DS 1955 -1975 just 20 years, sadly never upgraded the under powered engine - or they might still be making it.
Checker Cab
Volvo (240 aweiwa & 160 series
Saab 99/900 near 1968 - 200? ~ 40 years
Mercedes diesel taxi
London cab - electrified and still making.

Sadly you fall for Madison Ave BS. - new platform, new body. How many platforms can you name, how many did you buy, tell us the improvements.

Tesla constant improvement far, far, better

 

[FreqFlyer]

Citroen DS 1955 -1975 just 20 years, sadly never upgraded the under powered engine - or they might still be making it.
Checker Cab
Volvo (240 aweiwa & 160 series
Saab 99/900 near 1968 - 200? ~ 40 years
Mercedes diesel taxi
London cab - electrified and still making.

Sadly you fall for Madison Ave BS. - new platform, new body. How many platforms can you name, how many did you buy, tell us the improvements.

Tesla constant improvement far, far, better

The niche examples you stated did not change car buyer habits, or expectation of something new every half decade or so.

VW MBQ (most of their product line), Honda Global Platform (Accord, CRV,Civic etc), Toyota TNGA (most of its new product moving to it), etc. You want me to go on? And I have of the two of the above three in my garage.

Even Tesla learns like every other car maker how to improve NHV and do it while making the car body or EV skateboard lighter, yet stronger, cheaper to build and more profitable per unit . Pretty sure Tesla's bean counters dream of Models S,3,X and Y going down the same production line using common parts and crazy profit margins. Problem is takes crazy money to get the S and X to that point. And looking at S/X sales, its not worth it................now.


,

 

[Brando]

The niche examples you stated did not change car buyer habits, or expectation of something new every half decade or so.

VW MBQ (most of their product line), Honda Global Platform (Accord, CRV,Civic etc), Toyota TNGA (most of its new product moving to it), etc. You want me to go on? And I have of the two of the above three in my garage.

Even Tesla learns like every other car maker how to improve NHV and do it while making the car body or EV skateboard lighter, yet stronger, cheaper to build and more profitable per unit . Pretty sure Tesla's bean counters dream of Models S,3,X and Y going down the same production line using common parts and crazy profit margins. Problem is takes crazy money to get the S and X to that point. And looking at S/X sales, its not worth it................now.


,

Seems the Model S is number 1 in sales in somre years.
Seems you have plenty of choices to pick from. Buy what you want.
2019 US Large Luxury Car Sales Figures

Elon is well aware, if people don't by his vehicles, Tesla will go broke. For what I think is the youngest car maker on the plenet seems he is doing fine to me.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Having watched Elon on the NBC show, he stated the Roadster 2.0 will be on a brand new platform. Hmm, wander what future products will share "new" platform?

 

[Brando]

I guess that the Tri-Motor Plaid is consitdered a "new platform" ?? - NOT in my book.
The Skate Board Platform is here to stay. Now just continuous improvements.

- motors and number of motors (1, 2, 3 maybe even 4 in the future?)
- batteries
- temperature management of batteries, people, motors, electronics
-=- OctoValve, heat pumps
- glass
- electronics & software
- suspension

You get the idea.
==============

Always interesting to watch Rob Stark's American Megathread numbers
for example US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

 

[FreqFlyer]

Just for kicks, not saying it will look anywhere close to this............

How’s This For A Next-Gen Tesla Model S Redesign?

 

[user212_nr]

I think Tesla have the right idea, sticking with a program of continual improvements and refinements rather than an "all new" model on a new platform. I don't think there's going to be a second generation S on a new platform any time soon. I won't say never, but there's a lot of logic behind keeping the current platform going for as long as possible. (And much of my thoughts on this could apply to the X as well, and even other Tesla models in the long run.)

I don't think that there exists any question between a major refresh and minor continual changes. I think what people are talking about is that Tesla has sort of stopped with the minor changes. They haven't added Supercharger V3 capabilities. They have not upgraded the battery pack to the more advanced cells they use in the 3. They haven't gotten rid of the 12v battery like they did for the Y. I can't think of other things they are missing - for a while the screen was better on the 3, maybe they have fixed that. I think it is a lot of these little things that are irritating the "premium" customers and rightly so. They don't need these things, but it affects how the car is perceived.

All these things are minor, but I think that is what is actually meant by the "major" refresh. They want all these minor updates.

 

[user212_nr]

Well Apple still makes Macs despite being a devices company.

I feel like you are talking from the future.

 

[MP3Mike]

They haven't added Supercharger V3 capabilities. They have not upgraded the battery pack to the more advanced cells they use in the 3. They haven't gotten rid of the 12v battery like they did for the Y. I

They are using the new cell formulation in the S&X.
They have released some V3 for the S&X. (200kW) And it is rumored that 225kW is coming soon.
The Model Y still has a 12v battery.

 

[Brando]

quickest, longest range, cheapest to operate, less expensive compared to the 2012 version, and much improved

and still no one can match the 2012 version - let alone the 2020 version.

2020 Tesla Model S Performance Vs 2014 Model S P85D

 

[user212_nr]

They are using the new cell formulation in the S&X.
They have released some V3 for the S&X. (200kW) And it is rumored that 225kW is coming soon.
The Model Y still has a 12v battery.

Thanks for the updates, they are hard to keep up with.

Tesla V3 Supercharging: Why Model S and X Aren't Eligible: Video

Dated March 8, 2019. Even if it is fixed, it shows that Tesla is bringing out new features to their "more affordable" cars first

Tesla's website says "200 kW" for the Model S and "250 KW" for the 3. So the 3 is in some respects better than the S, due only to inferior hardware. Its not a big deal, just an ego thing for some people.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla secret project Palladium: new Model S and Model X are coming


This just got interesting.

 

[Brando]

The niche examples you stated did not change car buyer habits, or expectation of something new every half decade or so. ...
<snip>

DS20 1,455,746; sold 12,000 in a single day upon release at the 1955 Paris Motor Show.[110]

Checker Marathon 1961–82 10,559 of a single generation not counting taxicabs and private sales for 1961–63, 1976 and 1980–82 (private sales for 1961–62, 1976 and 1980–82 are unknown).[24][25]

Volvo 200 series 1974–1993 2,862,573 in a single generation; the bestselling car built in Sweden.[458]
Volvo 140 1966–1974 1,252,371 in a single generation.[458]

Saturn S-Series 1991–2002 Saturn's longest lasting and bestselling nameplate; approximately 2,210,000 over two generations not counting 2002 (sales of 2002 are unknown).[412]

Saab 900 1978–93 Saab's bestseller; 908,810 in a single generation of sedans, hatchbacks and convertibles.[410]

Not sure any car model near 1 million or more should be considered "niche"

side note (for fun)
Chevrolet Corvair 1960–69 1,835,170 in two generations.[97]

source: List of automobile sales by model - Wikipedia

 

[FreqFlyer]

DS20 1,455,746; sold 12,000 in a single day upon release at the 1955 Paris Motor Show.[110]

Checker Marathon 1961–82 10,559 of a single generation not counting taxicabs and private sales for 1961–63, 1976 and 1980–82 (private sales for 1961–62, 1976 and 1980–82 are unknown).[24][25]

Volvo 200 series 1974–1993 2,862,573 in a single generation; the bestselling car built in Sweden.[458]
Volvo 140 1966–1974 1,252,371 in a single generation.[458]

Saturn S-Series 1991–2002 Saturn's longest lasting and bestselling nameplate; approximately 2,210,000 over two generations not counting 2002 (sales of 2002 are unknown).[412]

Saab 900 1978–93 Saab's bestseller; 908,810 in a single generation of sedans, hatchbacks and convertibles.[410]

Not sure any car model near 1 million or more should be considered "niche"

side note (for fun)
Chevrolet Corvair 1960–69 1,835,170 in two generations.[97]

source: List of automobile sales by model - Wikipedia

In all of those examples, even the SAAB 900 has had design tweaks and changes. That is the point of the whole discussion. While there are a few exceptions, you cannot allow a car to stay on the market for a decade without design changes and expect it to sell in the numbers.

 

[Brando]

In all of those examples, even the SAAB 900 has had design tweaks and changes. That is the point of the whole discussion. While there are a few exceptions, you cannot allow a car to stay on the market for a decade without design changes and expect it to sell in the numbers.

Tesla constantly has "tweaks and changes" compare 2012/13 to 2020 Model S
Saab used the 99 platform for the 900 - only the 99 hood and front fenders were changed for the 900 [increased front crumple zone] - every other body/door/trunk/liftgate panels were the same [even the firewall]. I only know as the only two cars I ever bought 1974 99 and current 1989 900.

You'll easily find comparisons of older Model S to newer versions with a youtube search for videos.

TeslaTap.com might list differences year by year, I forget.