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The demise of the OEMs

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Nobody is making money other than Tesla on EVs

I hear this argument a lot, but I’m not convinced. I believe Ford said the Mach E was profitable, and GM said the Hummer and future EVs would be profitable. I am not sure the Bolt makes money, but it seems kind of like an urban legend that it loses a ton of money — do we have any actual reference? I’m not sure the ID series is profitable for VW but I’m not sure it’s not. If the Taycan isn’t profitable then Porsche really has problems. No idea on the eTron, iPace, or any others. I assume the Wuling Hongguang Mini makes money — perhaps 30 cents and only after incentives — but why make so many otherwise?

Partly it’s hard to disentangle R&D and capital expenses for EVs in a giant company that does the same for ICE, so perhaps the fully loaded cost is not yet profitable, except these big companies can clearly afford those expenses right now. If each incremental car built costs less to manufacture than the price it’s sold for, that might be adequately “profitable” for now. But then they have to reach a certain scale to make the factory efficient and without enough chips or batteries that’s likely difficult. I think their threshold must be lower than for Tesla, though. A lot of these ICE car models sell only what, tens of thousands a year and that’s still OK? The OEMs must do better at splitting a big factory across several models?

Bottom line, a lot of people seem to have a gut feel that EVs are not profitable for OEMs, but i have seen very few hard numbers, and I’m not sure if anyone with mixed ICE/EV fleets is publishing specific breakdowns. Sergio Marchionne famously said don’t buy our EVs because they’re so unprofitable, but that’s nearing a decade ago. Do we have any more recent specifics? I would be really interested if Ford has said anything about the Mach E since that was supposedly a whole separate program with its own R&D team and all, so they must have the standalone numbers for it.
 
I hear this argument a lot, but I’m not convinced. I believe Ford said the Mach E was profitable, and GM said the Hummer and future EVs would be profitable. I am not sure the Bolt makes money, but it seems kind of like an urban legend that it loses a ton of money — do we have any actual reference? I’m not sure the ID series is profitable for VW but I’m not sure it’s not. If the Taycan isn’t profitable then Porsche really has problems. No idea on the eTron, iPace, or any others. I assume the Wuling Hongguang Mini makes money — perhaps 30 cents and only after incentives — but why make so many otherwise?

Partly it’s hard to disentangle R&D and capital expenses for EVs in a giant company that does the same for ICE, so perhaps the fully loaded cost is not yet profitable, except these big companies can clearly afford those expenses right now. If each incremental car built costs less to manufacture than the price it’s sold for, that might be adequately “profitable” for now. But then they have to reach a certain scale to make the factory efficient and without enough chips or batteries that’s likely difficult. I think their threshold must be lower than for Tesla, though. A lot of these ICE car models sell only what, tens of thousands a year and that’s still OK? The OEMs must do better at splitting a big factory across several models?

Bottom line, a lot of people seem to have a gut feel that EVs are not profitable for OEMs, but i have seen very few hard numbers, and I’m not sure if anyone with mixed ICE/EV fleets is publishing specific breakdowns. Sergio Marchionne famously said don’t buy our EVs because they’re so unprofitable, but that’s nearing a decade ago. Do we have any more recent specifics? I would be really interested if Ford has said anything about the Mach E since that was supposedly a whole separate program with its own R&D team and all, so they must have the standalone numbers for it.
I was referring to net profitable (amortised Capex). If they keep selling over 3-5 years at this rate they will be net profitable but I'm not sure they will be selling ID3s at this price and volume in 3 years. No FSD etc.
 
No company is going to release hard numbers on individual product line profitability. That is valuable information to competitors.

Bolt is a compliance vehicle. It was built not to be profitable based the sale price but on avoiding fines/purchasing of emission credits.

Mach-e was designed to make money. In a price class above the Bolt. $42k-$70k MSRP. Ford CEO Jim Farley said they would be profitable from day 1. The lowest MSRP on a Mach-e within 200 miles of my house is $46.6k. The highest asking price for a Mach-e GT Performance is $77k.

Hummer starts at $80k and Lyriq at $60k. GM President Mark Reuss said they would be profitable from day 1. Like Tesla they are not selling base models from day 1.

GM never said Bolt would be profitable from day 1. GM hasn't said Bolt is profitable. Put the pieces together. It has been various industry experts doing engineering analysis and looking at Bolt volume that guesstimated losses on a selling price basis at $10k-$15k per vehicle.

When will GM/Ford/VW et al make a meaningful profit on a $40k car like Model 3 SR+?

When they do will Tesla be selling profitable $25k cars?
 
No company is going to release hard numbers on individual product line profitability.

Agreed, I was more hoping for an EV-vs-ICE breakdown. While that too might ordinarily be proprietary, if e.g. Ford could say our EV operation in total has a 5% net profit then I think they’d get a major positive reaction. It would be a sign that they have the possibility of survival, if they can only manage the transition.
 
Legacy car makers aren't going anywhere for a while. There's literally nobody to replace them.

I posted here on the expansion of Chinese EVs:- Tesla BEV Competition Developments

His conclusion of 37 Million CHinese EV produced annually by 2025 seems wrong to me, but 37 Million Chinese EVs annually by 2030 looks possible and at prices probably below parity with a similar ICE, Given that serval Chinese VEs are already at price parity with a similar ICE vehicle

This is what 50% annual compound growth for Tesla looks like: -
2021 – 0.8- 1 Million
2022 – 1.5 M
2023 – 2.25 M
2024 – 3.8 M
2025 – 5M
2026 – 7.5M
2027 – 11.3 M
2028 – 17M
2029-2030 – 20-25M

So to hit that 36-40 Million target, Chinese EV makers essentially just need to match Tesla's 50% annual compound growth..

This is all about the battery cells, and perhaps battery raw materials...

BUt Tesla and the Chinese making a combined volume of 60-65 Million EVs per year by 2030, seems possible assuming demand for EVs and prices below ICE prices is there and there are sufficient battery raw materials.

It expect US and European governments to try to protect their car industries with tariffs and similar measures on imported Chinese cars... A lot of the forces currently aligned against Tesla will be entirely focused on opposing the Chinese...

BUt there are large areas of the world with no significant local car industry and no plan to start one, the best value for money will win in those markets...
And the Chinese will retaliate with tariffs as needed, so if it comes to a tariff war, US and European companies will find it hard to sell exported cars in China.
 
car-companies-most-profitable-2020-4.png
 
Impressive from Toyota. I think they have played this better than the others - VW included.

I guess I'm considerably less impressed by press released than I am by actual for-sale-in-volume products.

Toyota which has been heavily, actively, fighting against EVs for years now tells us they hope to sell as many EVs in 2030 as Tesla is likely to be selling by 2024. (and with relatively little in the way of details, specs, or where all those batteries will come from).
 
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I guess I'm considerably less impressed by press released than I am by actual for-sale-in-volume products.

Toyota which has been heavily, actively, fighting against EVs for years now tells us they hope to sell as many EVs in 2030 as Tesla is likely to be selling by 2024. (and with relatively little in the way of details, specs, or where all those batteries will come from).
Toyota are partnering with BYD for Blade batteries. I think this make them much more credible than the others who will be forced to pickup Tesla's crumbs from Pana, LG and CATL - probably have to swap to 4680 too. I will see you in 2030 - I would be very surprised if Toyota aren't beating VW.
 
Impressive from Toyota. I think they have played this better than the others - VW included.
Toyota and Lexus shock with reveal of 15 new electric cars | Autocar
EVs aren't as hard as they are collectively making this. Imagine what Rivian could have done with VWs resources for instance.
"15 wildly diverse concepts for upcoming Toyota and Lexus electric cars, as he detailed plans for the two firms to launch a total of 30 battery EVs by 2030.
...
Toyota and Lexus's plan to sell 3.5 million electric cars by 2030, including BEVs and FCEVs, is up from its previous target of two million
...
Lexus, in particular, will launch EVs in all segments by 2030, go all-EV in Europe, North America and China by 2030, and ditch combustion completely in 2035."


  • Concepts
  • 3.5 million electric cars by 2030, including BEVs and FCEVs,
  • Lexus - ditch combustion completely in 2035

From the comments:-

"They can say whatever they like, talk is cheap. In 2016 Ford said they're be making 16 pure BEVs by 2022, that isn't going to happen is it."

"Not really a sound strategy, Tesla have enough factory capacity in the ground today to produce 2 million EVs. In that context aiming to produce 3.5 million EVs in 2030 is not bold it is late.

By 2030 Tesla is working to produce 15 million EVs"
- 20 million I recall

I think Toyoda is afraid of the societal impact in Japan and loss of respect/deference to him & Toyota that will come with EVs devastating traditional ICE suppliers. Wrong person to be heading Toyota. My opinion is that it will be a mess, too little too late, still clinging to fuel cells & ICE as their products fail to sell.
 
Toyota are partnering with BYD for Blade batteries. I think this make them much more credible than the others who will be forced to pickup Tesla's crumbs from Pana, LG and CATL - probably have to swap to 4680 too. I will see you in 2030 - I would be very surprised if Toyota aren't beating VW.
Iron Phosphate is much better for most uses - especially bulk of Toyota sales/products.

VW will be burned by pouch cells (pun intended). So too will Hyundai and others. It is all about the cells, the right cells, in huge volumes and the engineering (BMS, electronics, knowledge, fast learning) to make it all work.

I only see the Chinese, (possibly Vietnamese) and Tesla taking it seriously, with hope of high volumes.

I have hope for Mate Rimac (the love child of a bearded Rob Maurer and Elon Musk).
 
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Iron Phosphate is much better for most uses - especially bulk of Toyota sales/products.

VW will be burned by pouch cells (pun intended). So too will Hyundai and others. It is all about the cells, the right cells, in huge volumes and the engineering (BMS, electronics, knowledge, fast learning) to make it all work.

I only see the Chinese, (possibly Vietnamese) and Tesla taking it seriously, with hope of high volumes.

I have hope for Mate Rimac (the love child of a bearded Rob Maurer and Elon Musk).
Thinking about Toyota, even GM, VW...

As the central empire hits problems, the more independent areas (GM China, non-USA such as VW/Toyota in USA) will probably become more independent.

Toyota USA especially, with huge market in USA plus factories and autonomy on many aspects already (I would guess product mix, vehicle financing and marketing).

Ford > Ford Europe - Ford of Europe - Wikipedia 1967 to present - not sure how organised / related to USA decisions, but I would guess that Ford Europe is very independent.

Toyota > Toyota Japan / Toyota USA / Toyota China.

Japan would keep harking back to old tech (both Toyota and Government), China would go LFP and USA might chart a different course, it would be hard to predict as so many different factors.

In the legacies survive, they will change / merge or reinvent themselves and look quite different. I'm pessimistic on Japanese decision-making.
 

Dave has no answers for the OEMs. I think they have to keep advertising. Stopping would be even worse for them.
I think they should scale it back, not lose advertising competence or skills, but reduce spend.

At some point they might need the advertising spending, but not now. They are advertising EVs (and as Dave suggests Tesla might benefit from 80% of the spend). Better to redirect the money now, or save ammo for later use against competition.

Legacy need to sort themselves out fundamentally.

Cannibalise themselves, set up separate companies without the overheads, fast-acting, that can be worth more than the parent eventually.

I think many will fail. They've been in steady state, middle-management, empire-building, siloed, dealer-dependent, outsourcing zone for too long.
 
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The best thing here is GM expects Chip supply shortages to ease, as does Tesla.

We know Tesla doesn't currently think they are cell constrained.

So if Berlin can get it's final permit, and both new factories ramp smoothly, Tesla production numbers in 2022 might be great.

When the chip supply problems ease, and vehicle production returns to normal, we will get a better read on relative demand.

Major problems for OEMs only happen if/when ICE demand drops rapidly, faster than they can build EV production.

IMO the key consideration is resale values for ICE vehicles as this impacts in multiple ways on ICE demand, resale of off-lease vehicles, and perhaps on the finance arm of many OEMs where the major debts. are held.

Lower sales volumes, mean less income from finance, and less income form service and parts, Indirect effects of lower ICE sales impact on dealers and gas stations. If dealers and gas stations start to close, that accelerates any transition.

So 2022-2024 might be the time interval when a clear trend emerges. If that clear trend is ICE sales dropping faster than expected, that is big trouble for many OEMs. If the other clear trend is Tesla, the Chinese and others ramping EV production faster than expected, that compounds the problem.

Up to now ICE has had the cushion of EVs only being available in low numbers and low public awareness.