The demise of the OEMs

[SO16]

The last reports says days inventory is down from 80 days in February to 76 days in March. 60 days is considered ideal.

View attachment 1032733

View attachment 1032734

Brisk February Sales Drew Down New-Vehicle Inventory - Cox Automotive Inc.

March opened with 76 days' supply, as brisk February sales drew down new-vehicle inventory, according to vAuto data.

www.coxautoinc.com

Here is a fairly recent article showing the details of that days in inventory. Doesn’t look quite as rosy for the big 3. Take Toyota and Honda out of the mix and the avg days in inventory goes up.

New Car Inventory in 2024: Winners and Losers in April

Looking for the latest information on new car inventory for 2024? Here's everything you need to know about trends in supply and demand.

caredge.com

Seeing a lot of gas pickups still on the lots.

 

[RobStark]

Here is a fairly recent article showing the details of that days in inventory. Doesn’t look quite as rosy for the big 3. Take Toyota and Honda out of the mix and the avg days in inventory goes up.

They have higher inventory estimates than Cox. No one said "rosy. "

GM looks fine. GM pickup sales grew 5% in Q4 2023.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/03/gm-full-size-truck-sales-numbers-figures-results-fourth-quarter-2023-q4/#:~:text=GM%20full%2Dsize%20pickup%20truck,10%20percent%20to%2079%2C510%20units.

Ford is worse.

Stellantis is horrible. Their average listing price is much higher than either GM or Ford. They are trying to force high trim sales.

 

[SO16]

They have higher inventory estimates than Cox. No one said "rosy. "

GM looks fine. GM pickup sales grew 5% in Q4 2023.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/03/gm-full-size-truck-sales-numbers-figures-results-fourth-quarter-2023-q4/#:~:text=GM%20full%2Dsize%20pickup%20truck,10%20percent%20to%2079%2C510%20units.

Ford is worse.

Stellantis is horrible. Their average listing price is much higher than either GM or Ford. They are trying to force high trim sales.

Those GM numbers are from 2023. It’s YTD this year I’m referring to.

GM doesn’t look “fine” to me. But yes, Ford is worse and Stellantis is horrible indeed.

 

[SO16]

I’m confused.

GM and Ford say they see strong sales but yet many posts I see on social media state the opposite. That dealership lots are full, at 3 year highs and not moving. Channel stuffing?

GM, Ford are upbeat on 'really strong' US demand

(Reuters) -Top executives of General Motors and Ford gave upbeat outlooks for the U.S. auto market and their profit plans on Tuesday, saying U.S. consumer demand remains strong. GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said auto sales in March were "looking really strong" after a strong...

finance.yahoo.com

And of course another EV blame game here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772995310836388319

Channel stuffing indeed.

 

[RobStark]

Those GM numbers are from 2023. It’s YTD this year I’m referring to.

GM doesn’t look “fine” to me. But yes, Ford is worse and Stellantis is horrible indeed.

GM does look fine to me. A bit more stock than ideal isn't the end of the world.

Like Tesla, GM releases quarterly. So those are the latest numbers.

***Estimating sales on top of estimating inventory doesn't yield very accurate numbers.

 

[kpanda17]

Cox auto just predicted good q2-3 and beyond EV adoption, accelerating again

 

[kpanda17]

Cox auto just predicted good q2-3 and beyond EV adoption, accelerating again

"Cox Automotive predicts that 2024 will see 10% of all vehicles in the U.S. market be electric vehicles (EVs), with the remaining 90% made up of hybrids (14%) and internal combustion engines (ICE) vehicles (78%). This is based on the firm's prediction that EV sales will grow from 1.1 million in 2023 to 10% of the overall market in 2024"

 

[khorton]

Porsche is recalling 749 Taycans. Less than 1% of total delivered.

Because of 1 fire after DC fast charging.

I take it similar numbers for Audi Etron GTs.

Porsche recalls less than 1,000 Taycan units for electrical system risk

Porsche is recalling just 749 Taycan all-electric vehicles from 2021 to 2024 due to a high-voltage battery short-circuiting risk.

www.teslarati.com

The recall data mentions one initial fire in 2021, and addition fires in 2023. So that is at least three fires, quite possibly more.

 

[kpanda17]

The recall data mentions one initial fire in 2021, and addition fires in 2023. So that is at least three fires, quite possibly more.

Come on Porsche!! Be better than that
LFP and solid state batteries have big less fire issues

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775139192450040283

 

[SO16]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775139192450040283

Hopefully this will reverse with the SC network opening up to Rivian.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775160056998228169

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775160056998228169

BYD is always highly seasonal. That's why TSLAQ touts BYD's Q4 numbers then goes radio silent in Q1.
BYD's Q1 deliveries were up 14% y/y vs. Tesla down 8.5%.

 

[kabin]

Toyota Q1 sales up 20.3%.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Toyota Q1 sales up 20.3%.

View attachment 1034685

Looks like the 20% increase was off the back of a particularly bad 2023Q1. Now back to 2018/2019 levels.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/toyota-us-sales-figures/

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar

2018​	149,142​	166,099​	199,908​
2019​	138,601​	152,626​	185,698​
2020​	146,244​	173,013​	120,145​
2021​	146,591​	161,625​	208,801​
2022​	126,500​	136,275​	170,664​
2023​	113,953​	137,254​	147,863​
2024​	143,240​	159,258​	184,123​

 

[RobStark]

Toyota did particularly well during the Covid chip shortages.

They saw the chip shortage coming and stocked up.

Their production was not affected for quite a while. Toyota briefly surpassed GM to be the #1 automaker in the USA.

 

[kpanda17]

mid 2025 and on, when the BEV adoption starts an acceleration with the main group
will be interesting to see how well Toyota is prepared
besides Teslas mastery of BEVs, the Hyundai group will be second in dominance
think Toyota will be very challenged to catch up, with the expertise required to make well engineered BEVs
its not about large batteries to get range
its about vehicle and network software, designs for lowest drag, battery management, etc
Toyota does not have a clue about any of the above

 

[Doggydogworld]

its about vehicle and network software, designs for lowest drag, battery management, etc
Toyota does not have a clue about any of the above

S/W maybe, but they have plenty of experience with low drag (e.g. Prius). And HEV/PHEV battery management is tougher than BEV.

The Japanese are all behind, but Toyota is the best positioned of the lot. They really need to build a LFP supply chain. If the market truly goes BEV-crazy next year I agree they'll be in trouble. I don't see it, though.

 

[RobStark]

U.S. Q1 Sales: Retail Deliveries Off to a Fast Start in 2024 | General Motors Company

2024 U.S. First Quarter Sales DETROIT — General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and its dealers increased retail sales by 6% year-over-year and delivered 594,233 vehicles in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2024, down 1.5% year-over-year due to lower fleet deliveries.

investor.gm.com

GM has 69.26 days inventory. Looks fine.

GM is replacing unprofitable Bolt sales with profitable Ultium sales.

GM's U.S. EV Sales Decreased 21% In Q1 2024 As Bolt EVs Fade

In Q1 2024, GM delivered 16,425 all-electric vehicles, down 21% year-over-year. That's about 2.8% share of the total volume.

insideevs.com

 

[Knightshade]

GM is replacing unprofitable Bolt sales with profitable Ultium sales.[/URL]

Are they? They still sold significantly more Bolts, which they don't even make anymore, than they did Lyriqs.

Lyriq sales for the entire quarter were barely more than 1 months average bolt sales in 2023.