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The state of FSD by end of 2020

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by jlbzz, Jul 13, 2020.

  1. jlbzz

    jlbzz Member

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    We all know Musk has said he believes FSD basic functionality will be achieved by year end. My question is: do you think we should expect significant FSD upgrades by end of 2020? Which features are slated to be released next and when?
     
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  2. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Tesla has already told us that the only remaining FSD feature left is "autosteer on city streets". But we don't know exactly what it means. Presumably, it will include turning at intersections and enabling autosteer on roads with no middle lane line like residential streets.
     
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  3. Silicon Desert

    Silicon Desert Active Member

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    Hmmm, I have been hearing this since 2017 o_O While it seems there are good improvements every year, I can't begin to guess when we will get to a point that most people are fully satisfied with it. I do hope it will be end of year for a significant update, but like many just EM says, it is often a lot longer than he quotes.
     
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  4. cbrigante2

    cbrigante2 Member

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    I thought he mentioned "Advanced Summon" as well? Maybe an update to the AutoPark too?
     
  5. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it is commonly referred to as "reverse summon". Elon has talked about it as being a feature that is coming soon. But we don't know when. Presumably, the rewrite might be a prerequisite for "reverse summon". I guess we could see an early access of "reverse summon" later this year. That is possible I suppose.
     
  6. cbrigante2

    cbrigante2 Member

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    I would consider that an additional feature...but I might be an edge case. I never use Summon as it stands. Too risky I think with curb hits in it's current form. If the rewrite/reverse summon version could mistake proof even just autopark...it would be a feature to me! LOL!
     
  7. jlbzz

    jlbzz Member

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    I‘ve been trying to find information on the rewrite. Has Elon discusses what the rewrite will entail and why/how it’ll make autopilot so much better? It seems that full city driving/Complete FSD is reliant on this rewrite.
     
  8. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, Elon has discussed the rewrite on several occasions.

    Here is one video from an interview where Elon describes the rewrite in some detail.
    Elon Musk: There's quite a significant foundational rewrite in the Tesla Autopilot system that's almost complete : teslamotors

    Here is a recent Teslarati article that has some new tweets from Elon about the rewrite progress:
    Tesla Autopilot rewrite is coming in bid to extend Full Self Driving features

    In a nutshell, it seems like the rewrite will combine a lot of the separate perception and planning tasks into a single neural network. In other words, things like detecting other objects or planning a path through an intersection which used to be done separately, will now be done by the same NN. The rewrite will also allow the car to label a path in 3D from all 8 cameras.

    So yes, it definitely sounds like an important prerequisite for FSD.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  9. ChrML

    ChrML Member

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    I'm not sure what to believe. Elon did confirm that FSD would likely be feature complete by 2019, but it's very obvious that FSD would never work with the 2D image reconditioning that we have now. Elon probably knows very little of the actual state of development...

    Just to make it clear: Autopilot NN now uses just position in the 2D image frame and size to determine the object's location relative to the car. There is no concept of a 3D perception in production now until the rewrite.
     
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