The Tesla Motors mass market car....???

[Grendal]

Not entirely true. The top selling US cars are way over 250,000. More accuarately is the the top selling US PREMIUM CARS are 250,000. Thus the debate over what is "mass market".

Here is my source: Top of the Charts: The Best-Selling Vehicles of 2011 - WOT on Motor Trend

The top selling cars in the US are mid-sized sedans, Camry, Altima, Fusion, and Sonata. The highest selling compact is the Corolla, with the Cruze and Civic close behind. Going by those top twelve vehicles the Mid-sized sedans added up to 1,288,000 and compacts were 693,000. That's 2:1 popularity of mid-sized sedans to compacts in the top selling cars in the US. Going by those numbers I'd think that Tesla should make the Bluestar a mid-sized sedan. Tesla is a worldwide brand - so that should definitely alter the overall equation. But it should be easy to keep their luxury status with a mid-sized sedan. I think it's trickier to convince someone a compact car is a luxury car.

 

[dsm363]

Mass market should be framed with what Tesla has previously offered. I don't think they're looking for a 500,000 unit/year model right off the bat, even if those kinds of numbers were possible with an EV in a few years. If they can hit 60,000-100,000 units/year a few years after launch, that will likely be considered a wild success.

 

[EVNow]

Not entirely true. The top selling US cars are way over 250,000. More accuarately is the the top selling US PREMIUM CARS are 250,000. Thus the debate over what is "mass market".

Best Selling Cars USA December 2011: Ford F-Series at best volume in over 4 years! Full Year 2011: F-Series celebrates 30 years, Camry 10 years at #1

Best selling car - Camry at 308k. Best selling premium car is BMW 3-series at 94k.

 

[Grendal]

The top 2 "cars" in the US are mid-sized trucks. If the truck crowd could be convinced to embrace an EV then the 3rd version of the Model S should definitely be a truck. It's just a huge market. I just don't see that happening, however. EV tech will need to be solidly embraced by the mass public mind before trucks will succeed as an EV. Tesla can do it, but probably in about ten years.

Elon: "Tesla could build an electric truck but we want to build the best truck - period"

 

[tdelta1000]

Mass market should be framed with what Tesla has previously offered. I don't think they're looking for a 500,000 unit/year model right off the bat, even if those kinds of numbers were possible with an EV in a few years. If they can hit 60,000-100,000 units/year a few years after launch, that will likely be considered a wild success.

I agree...

 

[tdelta1000]

At this stage, Tesla Motors is focused on getting the Model S finalized and out the door just ahead of the "X". I do believe that if TM (Tesla Motors) continues to push the envelope in design and technology, the "mass market can become the third offer under the skateboard platform. The biggest challenge would be pricing and not the design nor the technology. The mass market platform could be shared with the development of the Model R or Roadster 3.0 as a cost cutting measure, speed of introduction and designs. The success of the "S" and the "X" will give us an idea of what's to come from Tesla Motors.

 

[Bearman]

The top 2 "cars" in the US are mid-sized trucks. If the truck crowd could be convinced to embrace an EV then the 3rd version of the Model S should definitely be a truck. It's just a huge market. I just don't see that happening, however. EV tech will need to be solidly embraced by the mass public mind before trucks will succeed as an EV. Tesla can do it, but probably in about ten years.

Agree, there are many things that speak for a half-ton ev-truck: They don't go fast, they need alot of torque, many are 4wd, weight is no issue and the battery pack could fit right under the bed.
Basically just the price of the pack will determine when it can be done.

 

[Lokolo]

Agree, there are many things that speak for a half-ton ev-truck: They don't go fast, they need alot of torque, many are 4wd, weight is no issue and the battery pack could fit right under the bed.
Basically just the price of the pack will determine when it can be done.

See I thought about this and wondered why Tesla didn't go for public transport contracts. Here in the UK there are big bus companies and London buses are even trying to go green and are now hybrid. Why not fully electric? I'm not totally sure how many miles a day buses do but they can use their batteries during the day, then charge at night.

I'm sure Tesla did think about it, but it is a wonder why they didn't go ahead with it. The contract would be worth a lot.

 

[Grendal]

See I thought about this and wondered why Tesla didn't go for public transport contracts. Here in the UK there are big bus companies and London buses are even trying to go green and are now hybrid. Why not fully electric? I'm not totally sure how many miles a day buses do but they can use their batteries during the day, then charge at night.

I'm sure Tesla did think about it, but it is a wonder why they didn't go ahead with it. The contract would be worth a lot.

The weakness for buses would be how long they're expected to run. It's not uncommon for a bus to go 500K to 750K miles. Though the reality is that someone is already doing it: Proterra., Inc
I'm not sure how they are getting around the abuse on the battery packs.

 

[agileone]

How about an "eco" police car ? It would save on gas and there is already a screen in the car! And there is room for 5 felons, provided two of them are Joe and William Daltons!!!

 

[tdelta1000]

Agree, there are many things that speak for a half-ton ev-truck: They don't go fast, they need alot of torque, many are 4wd, weight is no issue and the battery pack could fit right under the bed.
Basically just the price of the pack will determine when it can be done.

a half-ton ev pick up truck would be nice but I'm having a hard time visioning it in the TM future much less it's vehicle line up. Anything is possible when Elon sets the goal.

 

[tdelta1000]

See I thought about this and wondered why Tesla didn't go for public transport contracts. Here in the UK there are big bus companies and London buses are even trying to go green and are now hybrid. Why not fully electric? I'm not totally sure how many miles a day buses do but they can use their batteries during the day, then charge at night.

I'm sure Tesla did think about it, but it is a wonder why they didn't go ahead with it. The contract would be worth a lot.

I think the problem with that vision is the current battery technology. I think Tesla may find a way to infiltrate that market some where in the future.

 

[BYT_P1837]

Tesla Motors is a growing car company, they are growing slowly. They are not ready for mass market production yet. HOWEVER, with the design of the Model S' skateboard drivetrain, like they have said in video's, from the batteries on up is all potential. I believe they have a winning combination for their power train, one that can be adaptable for ANY car design, SUV, to Sedan, Sport to Truck, Mini Van to Personnel Carrier. The beauty of the power train is it's stability and once they have a process to mass produce that power train then think of the potential. A large section of the Tesla Factory in Fremont dedicated to just churning out tons of these power trains, then they get distributed to the sections of the factory to build the Model S, Model X, Roadster 3.0 and then the Bluestar vehicle. Once they get these Model S' out and can prove then can do it in the factory, then you will see what appears to be magic come out of what other car companies would find otherwise impossible to pull off with their ICE or Hybrid technologies. This is also why I am long on TSLA.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Tesla Motors is a growing car company, they are growing slowly. They are not ready for mass market production yet.

Agreed.

Here's an excerpt from a recent letter from one of Tesla's attorneys to the NSTSA.

To continue the path towards an even lower priced vehicle, Tesla Motors expects to develop and produce a smaller vehicle, the Gen III in the 2015 to 2018 timeframe. This vehicle will be comparable in size to a BMW 3-series sedan with class leading range and performance. Tesla Motors will produce these vehicles in quantities of 100,000 to 200,000 units a year with a price point in the mid $30,000 range.

Perhaps this information has been mentioned before by Tesla, but I don't recall seeing anything authoritative placing the production of the mass market car back as far as 2018.

I'm guessing that besides having a few things on their plate ahead of the Gen III vehicle, that they will wait whatever time it takes for battery advances in performance and cost to permit building a compelling mass market car that will have a range over 200 miles and cost around $35,000.

Larry

 

[Grendal]

Perhaps this information has been mentioned before by Tesla, but I don't recall seeing anything authoritative placing the production of the mass market car back as far as 2018.

I'm guessing that besides having a few things on their plate ahead of the Gen III vehicle, that they will wait whatever time it takes for battery advances in performance and cost to permit building a compelling mass market car that will have a range over 200 miles and cost around $35,000.

Larry

It makes sense from both a political and legal standpoint to give yourself as much cushion as necessary. It makes sense that Tesla would legally say that it could take as long as 2018 for the Gen III. I seriously doubt that Tesla's business strategy would want it to take that long. However, they may end up with unforseen issues with the Model S and Model X that delay them and disrupt their focus on their next generation vehicle. I expect 2015 (likely) or 2016 (if delayed). And waiting on battery advancement to bring the price down means you'd be allowing competitors to potentially grab up the consumer you plan to market to.

Success of the Model S and Model X would also be a factor in the Gen III time frame.

 

[Teslawisher]

I keep thinking of DOT trucks. How mch CO2 per year could that reduce... having all those running electric during the day and charging overnight? How much would each state save on gas and engine maintenance alone. Add up all those states and CO2 and tax payers saving could be HUGE.

 

[Larry Chanin]

It makes sense from both a political and legal standpoint to give yourself as much cushion as necessary. It makes sense that Tesla would legally say that it could take as long as 2018 for the Gen III.

That is certainly true.

I seriously doubt that Tesla's business strategy would want it to take that long as 2018 for the Gen III.

True, Tesla would want to do the Gen III sooner rather than later. However, the issue remains will the economics be in place by 2015 to permit building a car with sufficient range (say over 200 miles) for about $35,000? They can't do this now with current batteries. So in three years or so the big question remains is it likely they would be able to do this? Presumably there will be some economies of scale, but will that be sufficient with battery costs just dropping at modest rates? Should Tesla strategy plan on a break through? :wink:

I expect 2015 (likely) or 2016 (if delayed). And waiting on battery advancement to bring the price down means you'd be allowing competitors to potentially grab up the consumer you plan to market to.

Currently the mass market competition is making little profit. They may even be taking a loss on each car. For large corporations such as GM and Nissan this may be feasible for a while. Competition financed by the Chinese government can do this for a longer duration. A small startup simply doesn't have this option in their playbook. If Tesla can't produce a better car than the competition and stay near their target price, there is no point jeopardizing the viability of the company by going to market prematurely. Tesla could still remain viable if it stays a niche luxury player a bit longer, and the dream of a mass market car might just have to wait until conditions are right.

Larry

 

[Grendal]

If Tesla can't produce a better car than the competition and stay near their target price, there is no point jeopardizing the viability of the company by going to market prematurely. Tesla could still remain viable if it stays a niche luxury player a bit longer, and the dream of a mass market car might just have to wait until conditions are right.

Larry

As long as their profit margin is there they can produce the mass market Gen III whenever they want. Batteries are important but shouldn't delay the Bluestar to any greater extent. It's similar to the computer industry - you can always be waiting for that next improvement and get caught up in that. Tesla should pick their time and go with the best batteries available. As long as they maintain their luxury status and build a car to match that concept/strategy. And insisting that the Bluestar have a 200 mile range is just asking for troubles that, as a growing niche player, Tesla does not need. They should stick with their pack choice strategy. Whatever pack they can make a profit on with a luxury car style priced around $35K. The only criteria for the pack is that it needs to be better than any other mass market choices available at the time they ship. Then Tesla offers pack upgrades for those that want them for an extra cost like they have for the Model S and Model X. The Mass Market car needs to be a money maker even with smaller shipping numbers. That is a winning strategy for a smaller company moving into the big leagues. If it becomes a hit and they're selling hundreds of thousands then they will be generating a significant amount of profit that they can invest in expanding other areas they are weak in.

 

[Norbert]

And insisting that the Bluestar have a 200 mile range is just asking for troubles that, as a growing niche player, Tesla does not need. They should stick with their pack choice strategy. Whatever pack they can make a profit on with a luxury car style priced around $35K. The only criteria for the pack is that it needs to be better than any other mass market choices available at the time they ship.

However I think Tesla won't go below a range of 150 miles for the base model, or so, also since by 2015 the Leaf will likely have a larger range as well. And if the price for a 150 mile pack is still high then, I think they will rather sell it for a higher price at first, than reduce the range further, consistent with their current strategy to offer good products without too many compromises.

 

[Larry Chanin]

However I think Tesla won't go below a range of 150 miles for the base model, or so, also since by 2015 the Leaf will likely have a larger range as well. And if the price for a 150 mile pack is still high then, I think they will rather sell it for a higher price at first, than reduce the range further, consistent with their current strategy to offer good products without too many compromises.

Hi Norbert,

Yes, when I used the expression (say over 200 miles) it was to set constraints. Sure Tesla can build a mass market car for $35,000 right now, but what would the range be with today's batteries? In three years the situation will be better with economies of scale and battery advances, but I wouldn't expect miracles.

I also agree in the face of high costs that Tesla is unlikely to cut range below the competition, they will raise the price. However, depending on how much that increase is, it is possible the so-called mass market car will become a niche market car. I have no problem with buying a niche market car, I'm buying the Model S after all, but if Tesla tries to launch the Gen III prematurely it may never hit those 100,000+ unit targets that define mass market.

Larry