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The Wrecked Roadster Registry

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While those abandoned sheets were almost certainly burned up, I don't think many of the corresponding roadsters were in that building, though some may have been. These are most likely dead sheets; some other sheets in that same enclosure were marked with "zero volts" and "dead brick 2". In addition, bricked roadsters not actively being worked on were apparently stored in another building.

218 and 349 were/are Radiant Red cars based in California (Los Angeles and Newport Beach). Two Radiant Red roadsters were seen in the Gjeebs video; one outside (confirmed as US925 from its NY license plate, HIFIELD) and one by the electronics lab, as yet unidentified - which could be either 218, 349, or another car entirely.

391 was/is Glacier Blue and is based in Phoenix, AZ. Three glacier Blue roadsters were visible in the Gjeebs video, and three have been confirmed as destroyed: US27 (confirmed by Gruber as destroyed in a YouTube comment), US540 (reported by DeedWest as destroyed) and US1049 (reported by owner as destroyed). If destroyed, it would have to have been moved onsite between the Gjeebs video and the fire.

1311 was/is Jet Black, and is based in Oakland, CA. US464 is the only Black roadster known to have been destroyed of the four visible on-site in the Gjeebs video, one of which may have been US969 (which was not destroyed). Call this a maybe.

1457 was/is Gruber's own Electric Blue 2011 Sport with a gray interior, the 7th to last US Roadster built. It was displayed at a Ferrari dealer in Chicago for 10 years. It bricked and was sent to Gruber in June 2019 as a candidate for a battery recovery, which was never performed; Gruber then learned that the owner had arranged to sell it back to Tesla, but Gruber bought it from them instead in December 2019. After sitting bricked for 9 months, it turned out that 9 of its 11 sheets were good; as of March 2020, Gruber planned to install new sheets and return it to service. (An Electric Blue roadster was visible near the entrance to the electronics lab in the Gjeebs video, but I assumed - and still suspect - it was 516, which DeedWest reported to have been destroyed in the fire.)

It's likely that the 2 bad sheets from 1457 were the two labeled 1457 in the enclosure.

I guess it's a good time to share the revised color counts from re-watching more closely: a total of 28 roadsters can be seen onsite in the Gjeebs video; they're numbered here according to their positions in the attached diagram of the building (North is up):
5 Twilight Blue (18,21,22,23,26)
4 Arctic White (10,11,12,17)
4 Black (8,9,13,19)
3 Glacier Blue (14,16,20)
3 Thunder Gray (5,7,27)
2 Radiant Red (6,24)
2 Sterling Silver (3,28?)
1 Fusion Red (2)
1 Very Orange (15)
1 Brilliant Yellow (1)
1 Lightning Green (25)
1 Electric Blue (4)

Confirmed destroyed
US27 Glacier Blue (inside, FL 00027) #21
US227 Twilight Blue (outside, PA ECTRFD) #23
US265 Twilight Blue
US393 Arctic White
US423 Sterling Silver
US464 Black
US516 Electric Blue (inside) #4
US540 Glacier Blue
US545 Twilight Blue
US581 Twilight Blue (inside, mutant) #22
US666 Very Orange (Inside) #15
US1049 Glacier Blue
US1157 Thunder Gray
US1196 Thunder Gray

On further inspection of the videos, I’m moving 430 and 1219 from the “suspected” category to a “very strongly suspected” category, as an apparently brilliant yellow roadster can be seen in the aftermath video, and the positioning of several inoperable cars makes it unlikely 1219 could have been moved to safety.
US430 Brilliant Yellow (outside) #1
US1219 Glacier Blue (inside, AZ AF4H36) #16

Suspected; not confirmed
US620 Sterling Silver
US925 Radiant Red (outside, NY HIFIELD) #24
US1211 Glacier Blue

I’d move 1125 and 1216 into a “possible survivor” category, as seemingly unburnt cars of these colors are seen outside in the Gruber aftermath video.
US1125 Fusion Red (outside) #2
US1216 Lightning Green (outside, NC TTLYAMPD) #25
 

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If I'm seeing the picture that correctly I'm seeing 20v for the closest sheet.. that is 2.2v per brick/cell, they really should be monitoring every brick voltage as they charge, which they don't seem to be doing. That would place it beyond my comfort/safety levels inside an shop.
Looks like 20.37v...
trickly.jpg
 
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Just wondering if anyone has an estimate for the total roadsters from 2008 to present are not longer on the road here in the USA. If known, how many roadsters that are still road worthy are left?
How many are "on the road" is becoming a complex question. Broadly speaking, the more they appreciate, the more sense it makes to fix and restore bricked and wrecked roadsters. Spare parts aren't infinitely valuable - eventually they're worth manufacturing, however complex they may be.

As recently as two years ago (2019), you could easily buy a working Roadster for under $40k USD, while a battery replacement for that same Roadster would set you back anywhere between $16k and $30k - implying that a bricked but otherwise pristine Roadster would be worth between $10k and $24k. It would make no sense in 2019 to spend more than $10k total repairing wrecked Roadster with an intact battery: no matter the extent of the damage, you could just buy a bricked Roadster as a donor!

With even bricked Roadsters now selling for $75k and up, and working ones selling for $100k and up, it's a whole lot harder to total a Roadster. Replacement batteries are still <$30k, implying that a bricked Roadster hasn't just doubled in value - it's worth 3-7.5x what it was just two years ago!

Meanwhile, the perception of Roadsters as collectible investments that might well appreciate while being fun to drive in the meantime - rather than potential lawn ornaments, as they were at one point assumed destined to become - drives itself. Those who own them will hold onto them in expectation of further appreciation - thereby decreasing the supply available, even as demand increases. (Demand could well increase significantly as electrification of road transport infrastructure continues and the share of electric vehicles increases from its current estimated 2%.)

An obvious upper limit on the number of roadworthy Roadsters would be the ~2,531 Roadster VINs assigned by Tesla. You could narrow it down by subtracting the ones known to be out of service, which is at least a few hundred - but some of those have already been repaired/revived, and some will be in the future. A lower bound is the cars known to be on the road - which is at least a handful, unless someone's going around painting the same car different colors and photoshopping it into pictures with itself.

Which is to say: nobody knows.

I'm willing to bet though, that within the next 50 years - and probably sooner - the majority of the Roadsters on the road will be replicas with non-Tesla VINs, as with Shelby Cobras and Porsche 550s today.
 
How many are "on the road" is becoming a complex question. Broadly speaking, the more they appreciate, the more sense it makes to fix and restore bricked and wrecked roadsters. Spare parts aren't infinitely valuable - eventually they're worth manufacturing, however complex they may be.

As recently as two years ago (2019), you could easily buy a working Roadster for under $40k USD, while a battery replacement for that same Roadster would set you back anywhere between $16k and $30k - implying that a bricked but otherwise pristine Roadster would be worth between $10k and $24k. It would make no sense in 2019 to spend more than $10k total repairing wrecked Roadster with an intact battery: no matter the extent of the damage, you could just buy a bricked Roadster as a donor!

With even bricked Roadsters now selling for $75k and up, and working ones selling for $100k and up, it's a whole lot harder to total a Roadster. Replacement batteries are still <$30k, implying that a bricked Roadster hasn't just doubled in value - it's worth 3-7.5x what it was just two years ago!

Meanwhile, the perception of Roadsters as collectible investments that might well appreciate while being fun to drive in the meantime - rather than potential lawn ornaments, as they were at one point assumed destined to become - drives itself. Those who own them will hold onto them in expectation of further appreciation - thereby decreasing the supply available, even as demand increases. (Demand could well increase significantly as electrification of road transport infrastructure continues and the share of electric vehicles increases from its current estimated 2%.)

An obvious upper limit on the number of roadworthy Roadsters would be the ~2,531 Roadster VINs assigned by Tesla. You could narrow it down by subtracting the ones known to be out of service, which is at least a few hundred - but some of those have already been repaired/revived, and some will be in the future. A lower bound is the cars known to be on the road - which is at least a handful, unless someone's going around painting the same car different colors and photoshopping it into pictures with itself.

Which is to say: nobody knows.

I'm willing to bet though, that within the next 50 years - and probably sooner - the majority of the Roadsters on the road will be replicas with non-Tesla VINs, as with Shelby Cobras and Porsche 550s today.

Couple points...
1) I don't remember anytime where "pristine" roadsters were going for under $40K...the under $40K would have been those with suspect batteries and/or higher mileage with cosmetic issues. I purchased mine "pristine" in nid-2020 in the $60K range, it was a basic non-sport, no hard top, no special items. Bricked cars could possibly be obtained for the $15-20K range indicated because there was not an indication of being able to acquire a new battery easily or timely, but even that would have been a really good deal, based on the early posts in this thread for totaled roadsters at auction.

2) I believe the quantity of delivered roadsters worldwide was 2450. Not counting bricked ones, I would estimate around 100 lost to various accidents...this is a total guess, but reasonable based on usage and normal losses of vehicles being driven, excluding fire losses. I do believe many are being held hostage in garages by folks wanting to preserve value. Part of the problem with counts is some of the "totaled" cars were salvaged and put back on the road, again, based on some early posts in this thread.
 
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At the low point, I saw a few roadsters for sale around $40K and they tended to be either high mileage, not well cared for examples, or just some awesome deal where someone who didn't really need the money just let it go at below market rate.

I think part of the market bottom was when many original owners decided to switch to a Model S instead. Some "I only want one EV and the Model S is so much more practical" people. There were quite a few Roadster owners who weren't really sports car people but just wanted to have the highest range EV they could get. Another thing that happened is some people decided to "upgrade" to a 2.x sport model and sell off their old 1.5 so there was a blip in availability from that too. Yet another thing is some people just expect to have a newish vehicle with active factory warranty and they just sell off their Roadster after a certain number of years out of habit/principle. So there was that set of things that pushed the supply and demand curve more toward supply.

Now, we have a confluence of other events including Tesla becoming so much more well known and considered desirable by a much wider audience... Some people flush with $TSLA investment gains that seem appropriate to spend on a "classic" Tesla, baby-boomers hitting midlife crisis mode, post(ish) pandemic people deciding they have been locked down too long and want to go splurge on something fun, and some government stimulus money floating around that causes people to spend more on some fun toy vehicles. Another thought I have, which I think people tend to shy away from mentioning is that COVID has caused a lot of people to end up with unexpected early inheritance. I know of a few people who suddenly came into money that they weren't expecting and went out and bought vehicles with it.
 
Couple points...
1) I don't remember anytime where "pristine" roadsters were going for under $40K...the under $40K would have been those with suspect batteries and/or higher mileage with cosmetic issues. I purchased mine "pristine" in nid-2020 in the $60K range, it was a basic non-sport, no hard top, no special items. Bricked cars could possibly be obtained for the $15-20K range indicated because there was not an indication of being able to acquire a new battery easily or timely, but even that would have been a really good deal, based on the early posts in this thread for totaled roadsters at auction.

2) I believe the quantity of delivered roadsters worldwide was 2450. Not counting bricked ones, I would estimate around 100 lost to various accidents...this is a total guess, but reasonable based on usage and normal losses of vehicles being driven, excluding fire losses. I do believe many are being held hostage in garages by folks wanting to preserve value. Part of the problem with counts is some of the "totaled" cars were salvaged and put back on the road, again, based on some early posts in this thread.
1. Search for "Tesla roadster"

Of note: Carl Medlock (CM_007 on here, AESolutions on BAT) sold US221 with a CAC of 149, 43k miles, hard and soft tops, and a rebuilt PEM on Bring a Trailer in August 2019 for 40k. He's a pretty sharp guy, and he set the reserve price on that auction. There's quite a few that sold for less, some that sold for more - but you could definitely buy a drivable Roadster for 40k in 2019. Several crossed the Mecum and Jackson-Barrett auction blocks for a good deal less than that! (Keep in mind: there's often a gap between listings and actual sales prices - aside from bills of sale, auctions are one of the better indicators of market value, assuming they're widely publicized to the right audience.)

Even if, as TEG pointed out, 2019 was the nadir of value and 2020 the second apex, what I said about the potential appreciation between those two dates holds true.

2. To the best of my current understanding, 2531 is the number of Tesla VINs assigned to physical chassis. Well, plus or minus one. Allow me to explain!

2500 is commonly cited as the rough number of Roadsters - both because the final Roadster produced had the ceremonial VIN EU2500 - and because the 27 Founders’ Series cars, US VIN range of 1-1464, and 1012 EU VINs (1-2500, skipping 1011-2499) add up to a total of 2503, which is basically 2500.

However, the 15 VINS US485-US499 were never built, so the number of cars that physically existed should be 2488 - which again, is roughly 2500. (Take away the Founders’ Series cars, and that’s 2461 physical cars, which is roughly your 2450.)

Add back in the 10 Engineering Prototypes - some of which are in private hands, most of which were crash tested - and the 33 Validation Prototypes (VP1-VP33+VP201, minus VP15 which never existed), and you have 2504, which is roughly 2500.

Add back in the Founders’ Series and - 2531!

Now, if you want to include unbuilt Roadsters in your count of potential Roadster VINs - say, in case Tesla ever issues a Continuation Series - add VINs 495-499 back in, and you have 2546; 2547 with VP15.

You *could* add another 1488 VINs if you want to include EU VINs 1011-2499, and you would have 4035 potential Roadster VINS - but that just feels wrong for some reason.

All of that said, add 2 to any of these if you want to include the two Mules, the first of which (Mule 1) used a donor Elise chassis, was never rebodied, and was presumably never assigned a VIN aside from its original Lotus VIN (which as far as I’m aware is not public knowledge); the other of which has a “Limited Production” VIN of 1T9RE11A15P829M02, which is not only an invalid VIN - with an M where there should be a digit - it’s a bit different than all the other Roadsters, which all had SFZRE or 5YJRE prefixes. Maybe it’s a Tesla VIN, maybe not. A matter of semantics!
 
Not bad... For an amateur ! 😜

Just kidding - nice work there.

Since we are sharing, here is a little section from my notes:
------
5YJ - Tesla manufacturer string for Menlo Park built cars
SFZ - Tesla manufacturer string for Hethel, UK built cars
___RE - Roadster Convertible
_____3 - region code, presumably Europe (1=USA)
______B - some other kind of restraint system - what type?
_______3 - Motor type M6S - is this the Sport motor?
________7 - Check digit
_________A - 2010
Digit 8, Motor: For 2008, B = Tesla 56C
For 2010, 1 = Tesla M6B; 3 = Tesla M6S

_______2005_______
1T9RE11A15P829M02 for drivable mule 2
...

CA"MFG 63277" California Manufacturer plates
CA"DLR 68106" California Dealer plates

2004: Roadster styling study...
2005: January - 1/4 scale model done in clay
2005: July - test a "plastic model" (the Aero buck) in a wind tunnel
EP03: 13 Jul 2006 EP#3 Crash test
19 Jul 2006 EP#1 & EP#2 Reveal event in Santa Monica - Orders start
17 Nov 2006 EP#4 born
18 Nov 2006 EP#2 at SF Auto show
01 Dec 2006 EP#2 at LA Auto show
VP01: Mar 2007
F001: Feb 2008 Founders' car #1
VP16: 12 Feb 2008
---Mar 17, 2008-- "Regular production starts"
Mar-Jun, 2008 - Founders' series production planned
VP10: 11 Mar 2008
VP18: 12 May 2008 26 May 2008 (reg date)
Jul 2008 - planned for Sig 100 #1
F002: Jul 2008
F003: Jul 2008
F004: Jul 2008
F019: 15 Jul 2008
F025: 24 Jul 2008
F005: Aug 2008
VP19: 03 Sep 2008
VP22: Sep 2008
VP24: 23 Sep 2008
0026: 25 Sep 2008
0033: 06 Oct 2008
0052: 20 Oct 2008
0055: 20 Oct 2008
0072: 04 Nov 2008
0087: Oct 2008
0105: 26 Nov 2008 (approx 70 cars delivered to customers by now)
0109: 24 Nov 2008
0113: 25 Nov 2008
0124: ?? Nov 2008
0133: 03 Dec 2008 (approx 100 cars had been delivered by now)
0152: 01 Jan 2009
0162: 01 Jan 2009
0164: Dec 2008
VP27: 01 Jan 2009
0181: 01 Jan 2009
0189: 01 Jan 2009
0194: Jan 2009
0209: 01 Jan 2009
13 Jan 2009 Tesla Roadster Sport announced to come in 2011
21 Jan 2009 Roadster prices changed
VP31: Jan 2009
-----
...
---
00000000011111111
12345678901234567
SFZ - Tesla manufacturer string for Hethel, UK built cars
SFZRE - Roadster Convertible=RE
SFZRE1 - region code, 1=USA (2 or 3=Europe) 8=Japan
SFZRE11 - restraint system type 1
SFZRE11B - Motor type B (Tesla 56C)
SFZRE11B? - Check digit
SFZRE11B?6 - 6=2006, 7=2007
SFZRE11B?63 - Factory - Hethel, UK
SFZRE11B?63E - Engineering/Eval Prototype

______2006_______
SFZRE11B963E00001 EP1 Obsidian Black / Black (decommissioned)
SFZRE11B063E00002 EP2 Radiant Red (repaint from "Chilli Red") (decommissioned)
SFZRE11B263E00003 EP3 Glacier Blue? UK: "227 CL" - FMVSS crash tested 7/13/2006
SFZRE11B463E00004 EP4 Very Orange - 11/17/2006
SFZRE11B663E00005 EP5 CA"6YFF060" Brilliant Yellow - trailer hitch Palo Alto - JB Straubel
SFZRE11B863E00006 EP6 Non standard "Nightfall" dark blue (repaint?) "227 OC"
SFZRE11BX63E00007 EP7
SFZRE11B163E00008 EP8
SFZRE11B363E00009 EP9 Electric Blue
SFZRE11BX63E00010 EP10 Sterling Silver? "AU56 AUJ" Arvidsjaur, Sweden cold weather tests March, 2007 MFG2007
First Registered 01/12/2007
(Glacier Blue EP)
-----

Some "driveable mule 1" pictures:
JB-and-Gene-Mule1.png

Martin-Elon-Mule1.png

Martin said:
The yellow Mule 1 started its life as a gasoline-powered Lotus Elise: an Italian-spec car with the Rover K-Series engine. Lotus imported the car to the US for show before they had any US-spec cars. When they were done with it, they could not sell it for road use in the US because it was not DOT-compliant, and it was not worthwhile to ship it back to Europe. Tesla bought it relatively cheaply from Lotus for conversion. The car was pretty much completely dismantled by the early Tesla crew, then re-assembled with early prototype drivetrain components.

 
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By the way, I think mule 1 was all but "left for dead", resold for not a whole lot. But like everything early Tesla, people are looking at it as having rare collector status now.