There is no Beta Model 3 - confirmed today by Elon

[Kenypowa]

In today's investor's call following yesterday's cap raise:

"q on model 3 beta prototype - essentially eliminating beta because of advanced analytical techniques and going straight to release candidate

show car -> alpha -> early release candidate

"we will be driving it in a week or 2"

entire car built with production tooling vs beta tooling, so higher precision.

quality of release candidate way better than for S and X

body panel gaps much better

ramp rate of production could be lower if suppliers have bad luck, force majeure, etc with several thousand partners [nothing new]"


Source: TSLA investor call notes • r/teslamotors

Will post recording once it becomes available

 

[Model 3]

Correction of the thread title: "There will not be any Beta Model 3 - confirmed today by Elon" to make it coherent with your post.

 

[stopcrazypp]

This is interesting. How will the board set the beta milestone given this? I guess they substitute the RC to the beta?

 

[BluestarE3]

Correction of the thread title: "There will not be any Beta Model 3 - confirmed today by Elon" to make it coherent with your post.

Yes, that tweak makes a big difference. For those who simply read the headline, they may think the existing title confirms the previous rumor that Tesla hasn't built any betas yet because they're behind schedule.

 

[ex-bimmer]

oh great...now people are going to lose their minds.

 

[jbcarioca]

FWIW, these are called "production prototypes" by some builders and "early production for some others, not to mention "beta" etc.
The critical points:
1. built with production tooling;
2. built with production parts.
Done well these vehicles are perfectly final, with some minor deficiencies in fit and finish due to first time down production line.
In some smaller production lines these vehicles are occasionally sold to normal buyers once initial testing is done.
I once bought a car that was SN 00048 of it's type, another time SN xxxxx901. The first was a very small builder, Morgan. The second was a major builder but was the first delivery of it's type to a customer in the country where I was at the time.
From my reading of Elon's comments they are substantially ahead of schedule, but are not sure that all the suppliers can be.

Is that your reading too?

 

[Red Sage]

This is very good news!

 

[bro1999]

Interesting that once again, Elon drops the "production will be affected if suppliers suffer setbacks..." line.
Just a CYA statement? Or something more worrisome?

 

[182RG]

Interesting that once again, Elon drops the "production will be affected if suppliers suffer setbacks..." line.
Just a CYA statement? Or something more worrisome?

Both

 

[ecarfan]

New Interesting that once again, Elon drops the "production will be affected if suppliers suffer setbacks..." line

Just standard boilerplate language that executive management of public companies regularly reiterate if they're smart. And he is.

 

[bro1999]

Just standard boilerplate language that executive management of public companies regularly reiterate if they're smart. And he is.

I don't remember Mary Barra dropping "well, the Bolt will be released by the end of 2016 AS LONG AS LG does what they are supposed to do" lines leading up to the Bolt release. Just sayin'.

 

[Red Sage]

Interesting that once again, Elon drops the "production will be affected if suppliers suffer setbacks..." line.
Just a CYA statement? Or something more worrisome?

No. Think of it more as a WARNING to suppliers.

"Look! We built the whole [DANG] car in six months! What do you mean you need 'more time' for coat hooks?" We have our [STUFF] together! Do I have to come over there and do YOUR JOB TOO?"​

 

[ecarfan]

I don't remember Mary Barra dropping "well, the Bolt will be released by the end of 2016 AS LONG AS LG does what they are supposed to do" lines leading up to the Bolt release. Just sayin'.

I think my post covers the scenario you describe.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

When these "Production Candidates" start rolling around CA soon....


I WANT TO SEE MORE COLORS!!!!!


-Thanks.

 

[RayW]

No. Think of it more as a WARNING to suppliers.

"Look! We built the whole [DANG] car in six months! What do you mean you need 'more time' for coat hooks?" We have our [STUFF] together! Do I have to come over there and do YOUR JOB TOO?"​

You think Elon is finally addressing the coat hook deficiency? I'm hoping his engineers also solve that trash receptacle problem.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

You think Elon is finally addressing the coat hook deficiency? I'm hoping his engineers also solve that trash receptacle problem.

As a red-blooded American from the Northeast, I also hope that large coffees/travel mugs are taken into account as well.....especially in a car capable of mostly driving itself, I'll have more time to drink larger beverages.

 

[Red Sage]

I don't remember Mary Barra dropping "well, the Bolt will be released by the end of 2016 AS LONG AS LG does what they are supposed to do" lines leading up to the Bolt release. Just sayin'.

That's because she has said NOTHING AT ALL about the BOLT release after January 2016. Because she runs a gas guzzling pickup truck and SUV company. Not an electric car company. If Lee Iaccoca had won the Car of the Year award for anything at all he'd have been at the studio filming a commercial about how great his idea was to bring about this masterpiece of engineering... Mary? Nowhere to be seen, heard, or found.

 

[NeverFollow]

Even for software development, after initial prototyping, and alpha phase
where all the various components are merged together, there is a beta phase
for which the resulting product is submitted to beta customers before full delivery.

You have to remember that the earlier a bug or any glitch is discover,
the less expensive the full process of fixing and validating the problem will be.

Also when fixing a problem, there are always unexpected regressions or side effects
as you can only perform individual testing but not a full testing, because many components
get fixed separately and merged later.

Only Beta testing allows to define a frozen stage before the final product release.

I think, as a summary, that the M3 Beta testers will be the Tesla employees
who will receive the first deliveries batches.


Note: May be Tesla want to follow the Space X model where it is not feasible
to test and validate a full rocket before launch, and the only full test is the final take off!

 

[techmaven]

FWIW, these are called "production prototypes" by some builders and "early production for some others, not to mention "beta" etc.
The critical points:
1. built with production tooling;
2. built with production parts.

I suspect these vehicles are built with mostly production tooling but with prototype parts to validate those parts.

No. Think of it more as a WARNING to suppliers.

"Look! We built the whole [DANG] car in six months! What do you mean you need 'more time' for coat hooks?" We have our [STUFF] together! Do I have to come over there and do YOUR JOB TOO?"​

Expecting serious production quantities of the Model 3 in September is one thing, but expecting coat hooks is a bridge too far.

 

[dsvick]

As a red-blooded American from the Northeast, I also hope that large coffees/travel mugs are taken into account as well.....especially in a car capable of mostly driving itself, I'll have more time to drink larger beverages.

If the car is driving itself why would you need to ever put the mug down? Oh wait ... to turn the page on the newspaper - got it!