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Today's lease announcement was anticlimactic

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So then Model S shares market segment with the Leaf, is marketed as a 5-series, reminiscent of a Roadmaster, competes with a 911, reviewed against a Citroen, valued as an S-Class, and financed like a house? Pieces of many different puzzles are falling into place here, and somehow the 40kWh comes out as the hobbled horse...
 
I do not quite call it fuzzy math. I see where they are coming from.

Herb,

Yes, I'm with you.

If you use Tesla's imaginitive math, and value your time waiting at gas stations high enough, their cost calculator clearly shows that Tesla will pay you a monthly fee for financing the car with them.

Nothing fuzzy about that at all. :wink:

Larry
 
Honestly I think this announcement hurts Tesla and Elon's credibility. The $500 lease number that they threw on their website is the fuzziest math I have ever seen in my life.

Yep.

I think they should have clearly differentiated 'cost of ownership' vs 'lease monthly cost'. Bundling in the cost of ownership savings, to make it look like the lease price is cheaper, is just sleazy.

And, I've gotta say it is Elon that is pushing it this way.

The website Tesla Unveils Revolutionary New Finance Product | Press Releases | Tesla Motors says:

US Bank and Wells Fargo have agreed to provide 10% down financing for purchase of a Model S (on approved credit.) The 10% down payment is covered or more than covered by US Federal and state tax credits ranging from $7,500 to $15,000. New Jersey, Washington and DC also have no sales tax for electric vehicles. These advantages are not available when leasing.

When considering the savings from using electricity instead of gasoline, depreciation benefits and other factors, the true net out of pocket cost to own a mid-range Model S drops to less than $500 per month.

Clear.

But, Elon says:

...enables a customer to buy a Model S where the downpayment is taken care of by the tax credit and the monthly payment, net of gas savings, is only $500 a month. So, the bottom line is that you can own a Model S for essentially no downpayment and $500 a month.

Meh.
 
I don't have a problem at all about the time-value being added in the calculator.

I've been doing this for years in order to compare acquisition prices, e.g. how much time will one model computer save me over another. Driving to buy something cheaper from further away vs. closer, but costlier. On vacation staying at a higher-rate hotel closer to a point of interest vs. lower rate but having to spend time commuting. And, coincidentally, I've been using $100/h for those sums. It works well, for me at least. YMMV.


What I do find a bit disingenuous though is the Business Tax Incentive.

Every other effective cost-of-ownership element is effectively a comparison against an equivalent ICE. How much you save in gas. How much time you save at the pump. How much time you save for the commute. etc.

However, the Business Tax deduction applies to every vehicle. To count that as a Model S saving is like counting the saving you have from not having your property stolen or destroyed by rain because the Model S has a lockable trunk.
 
I think the "math" with the time/money saved by not filling up and driving in the HOV lane is simply embarrassing.

As a Tesla owner for the past 20 months, I find nothing embarrassing in it. Not having to stop at gas stations when I need to get to work or home at a certain time is worth money to me. Not having smelly hands when I get there is worth money to me. Getting to sleep in 15 more minutes in the morning, or getting to do another 15 minutes at work before I leave for home is worth money to me.

The True Cost of Ownership page lets you choose if you want to count those or not. And if you do, you get to enter the parameters for how long it takes to get gas or save from the commute - and what your time value is.

I wouldn't pay $25 a week to avoid a gas station (as Tesla's defaults provide), but next time you need to get gas, think about how much you'd pay over the price per gallon via a phone app that would suddenly give you a full tank. And, like the carpool lanes here in Northern CA that you can buy your way into via Fastrak, think about what you'd pay to not sit in traffic when there's a carpool lane to your left. These things do have value, at least to me.
 
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Some of the assumptions in their calculator are kind of absurd, especially the assumption that time saved is worth $100/hr. At least they let you change the inputs.

True Cost of Ownership | Tesla Motors

Hmm, ok, lets do the math*:

*just a rough equation, which would get far worse by the fact that a comparable "naked" 85 kWh Model S here starts at over $106,000 - in other words more than 33% more than in the US! Never forget that fact when you try to comprehend why we in Germany don't get too excited over the Model S. And remember that is with no extras. Add metallic paint, tech package, active air and parcel shelf, and you're at $115,000 already, and the list goes on. I think you get my drift.

85 kWh Battery (Non-Perf), no extras => $1,252 per Month

Down Payment 10% => + $7,990 (remains, as no EV incentives here at all)

Electricity vs. Diesel (no gasoline for me, thank you) => -$38 per Month (5000 miles per year, $7 per Gallon, 35 mpg, $0.33 per kWh)

Guaranteed resale value => -$47 per Month (how they arrive at that amount is a total mystery to me)

Business tax benefit => nope, no business (I think such subsidies should be abolished anyway, when I think of the cars business people drive compared to those the average man can afford, with no state sponsored luxuries :mad:)

Shorten your commute => nope, for one we have no "carpool lanes" or anything like it, and my commute to the nearest railway station is only 15 minutes one way anyway. And as long as Model S doesn't come with a function to override red traffic lights, I don't see it shortening my commute in any way.

Avoid the gas station => negligable, as I have to visit a gas station only once every three to four months, at about 5 minutes each. And my time sadly isn't valued at $100, not even half. But even if that point would save me another $5 per month, the down payment alone would ruin the overall equation.


Ok, so I am not the kind of customer Tesla can win over with such a scheme. I admit for many people this will be a great offering (even if your time isn't valued at $100 per hour), especially of you live in West Virginia :wink:

And initial sarcasm aside, I think the personal guarantee by Elon is certainly worth the hype and true to his statement to "put my money where my mouth is".
With the emphasis on "my".
I can hardly see any chairman of a German automaker, or even "the Patriarch" Ferdinand Piech of VW/Porsche/Audi fame to come up with such a personal investment...
 
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Wait, so unlike most leases, there won't be an option to purchase the car at the end of the leasing term? I like that leases give me the option to walk away but if I really like the vehicle, perhaps I'd like to keep it. Would there be an option to pay the residual value?

Metafor - better to think of this as a loan with a lease-like feature that lets you walk away from the loan / car at 36 months (as that's what it is). This isn't a lease - you will own the car outright after 66 months because you will have finished paying for it in full. After 36 months, you can either walk away using a minimum residual value of the S-class, you you will own ~36/66ths of the car due to your loan payments.
 
This isn't a lease - you will own the car outright after 66 months because you will have finished paying for it in full.

Basically agree with your post... just wanted to point out that Tesla's website calculator (now) says "63 months".

(Not sure, but it seemed some of the other numbers changed since I looked the first time.)

EDIT: Yes, it seems at least one of the changes was from 66 months at $1,199/mo., updated to 63 months at $1,252/mo. for the 85 kWh version.
 
The big plug to me in the whole deal is that they have found a way to apply the 7500 tax credit to the down payment. For those like myself who were planning to put 50% down, and finance the rest, adding the additional $7500 to the down payment would be huge, and result in a significantly lower monthly payment. Assuming that you can still pay more up front, combined with the tax credit deal they have worked out, you could potentially put down the money you would use to buy a decent car with cash (lets say the price of a 3 series or something), get a Model S, and have a monthly payment that would be in line with what you would be spending on gas for the 3 series.

This program being in place last year would have given me the financial reach to get the 60 kWh Model S I needed, and would have resulted in me keeping my reservation. Tesla is marketing it wrong, they should be pushing the fact that this program will allow you to apply the tax credit to the down payment, as that is going to be a major factor for alot of people.
 
Where I live the Mercedes S-class is one of the most rapidly depreciating cars you can buy......

Same here. Basically, the higher the price, the higher the depreciation. Of course the manufacturer plays a part, too. At least here, a comparable Mercedes generally depreciates less than say a Fiat, Renault or Mitsubishi of the same price region. One of the best manufacturers as depreciation is concerned is Dacia, funnily enough. Then again, most of their cars cost less than 10k Euro to start with :wink:

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In your situation, what do you expect? That Tesla would give you an EV incentive even though none is available in Germany? ;)

You should still expect a loan offer that is comparable to what german banks would give you (assuming Tesla will get such a deal), and a guaranteed resale offer.

Will wait and see.

And no, I don't expect Tesla to give me an EV incentive.
But that override function for red traffic lights would be nice. Perhaps with firmware 2014.04.01 ;-)
 
Tesla is marketing it wrong, they should be pushing the fact that this program will allow you to apply the tax credit to the down payment, as that is going to be a major factor for a lot of people.

The down payment is 10%. For example, $8,000 on an $80,000 car. You still have to pay the $8,000 at time of purchase. You'll get the tax credit later (depending on tax year, etc). You can think of it as an offset, but can't apply that offset at time of purchase.

Or, am I missing something?

The 'inventive' thing I see here is structuring it as a loan, not a lease, but with a lease-style buy-back option. The problem with a lease is that you don't own the car, so don't get the tax credit.
 
The down payment is 10%. For example, $8,000 on an $80,000 car. You still have to pay the $8,000 at time of purchase. You'll get the tax credit later (depending on tax year, etc). You can think of it as an offset, but can't apply that offset at time of purchase.

Or, am I missing something?

The 'inventive' thing I see here is structuring it as a loan, not a lease, but with a lease-style buy-back option. The problem with a lease is that you don't own the car, so don't get the tax credit.

I could be wrong on this (lord knows that they were not 100% clear) but I got the impressions that there is no money due up front, and the bank somehow claims the tax credit. Hopefully Tesla can provide a little more clarification on this, and it really is not 100% clear.