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i know jack about nothing
but i’m not convinced this is the breakout back to high 2s and reaching 300 again. just don’t see it.
we’ll see
Don't you think that whisper number was much lower?Why would it - the delivery numbers were 7.5% above consensus and 4.5% above guidance so I expect when the dust has settled the price will rise by about that amount.
Now if the price had still been in the 190's with low-ball estimates pushing the price down, the bounce would have been harder and the associated covering would have been magnified, but that didn't happen. Attention will soon turn to revenue, ASP will come back into focus as will margins on lower spec Model 3's and in the end, everyone will return to their camps.
Don't you think that whisper number was much lower?
Heck, I would have been ok with 80K deliveries, and would survive 75K; considering all previous disappointments.
I think bears still think Q3 will be another Q1 do over (because of tax credit reduction). Look at their estimates in Troy's sheet for eg. They are expecting Model 3 deliveries in Q3 in 60s, with next 4 quarters being around 250k. Not just bears, even Troy. So, if Tesla can actually increase or maintain deliveries - the tax credit story goes away.I just don't think this sale number changes the narrative alone. Another quarter nudging 100k units might. 3 straight quarters around 100k units would get interesting for sure, but if earnings don't follow the volumes, only the faithful will remain convinced.
Do you think TSLA will exit the year higher that it entered it?
If profitability returns, which I expect, yes, for sure, bar is low, it's around $300.I...
Do you think TSLA will exit the year higher that it entered it?
I think bears still think Q3 will be another Q1 do over (because of tax credit reduction). Look at their estimates in Troy's sheet for eg. They are expecting Model 3 deliveries in Q3 in 60s, with next 4 quarters being around 250k. Not just bears, even Troy. So, if Tesla can actually increase or maintain deliveries - the tax credit story goes away.
But Q1 '20 is probably critical. That finally can show that Q1 '19 was indeed an aberration. If things go well, that quarter could also put TSLA in S&P - which will indeed be structurally different and finally reduce short interest permanently.
Yes, when I say permanent reduction in SI - I'm basically talking about % of shares shorted. That should come down to Netflix levels, may be.agreed on all except the idea of permanent reduction of SI
aapl and amzn still amongst leaders in not short interest $ besides spy itself
although they have much more mkt cap obv
but i don’t think that goes away. we should be less than 40-45m shares tho, that’s kinda silly compared to float
They are coming. Should see a slow and steady rise. Whenever Tesla gaps up like this, the chance of finished the day at the high is pretty slim. The fact that we didn’t completely fade is important. I think we climb next weekSold all of my July19 calls early today, though not quite at the high. On the sidelines again now, waiting out July 4 holiday. Feels like this deliveries beat should have resulted in a much larger climb if not for the holiday. We'll see next week. I would expect some larger institutions to get back on board after this excellent deliveries report. I agree with Zhelko that Elon/Tesla did a much better job of managing expectations for the quarter, allowing a nice beat. This is the first big step in restoring credibility for Elon/Tesla, which is important for bringing big investors back.
They are expecting Model 3 deliveries in Q3 in 60s, with next 4 quarters being around 250k. Not just bears, even Troy.
So, are you expecting them to basically maintain around 70k a quarter - even though China GF will start production in Q1/Q2 of 2020 ?That's not exactly correct because my Model 3 delivery estimate for the next 4 quarters was 271K, not 250K and I made that estimate on 30 June 2019 before Tesla released the Q2 numbers. It turns out, my Model 3 delivery estimate on 30 June was short by 4K. Therefore it makes sense to increase all quarters by 4K (16K for 4 quarters). Therefore 271+16= 287K makes more sense to me now. My estimates are usually on the low side. The actual number could be somewhere between 287-307K Model 3 deliveries in the next 4 quarters.