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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Boomer19, May 2, 2019.
I sold @ $240.23, bought yesterday @ $224.06. I'm sure I'll be back soon .
Just bought LTHM again on a dip there.
Why would it - the delivery numbers were 7.5% above consensus and 4.5% above guidance so I expect when the dust has settled the price will rise by about that amount.
Now if the price had still been in the 190's with low-ball estimates pushing the price down, the bounce would have been harder and the associated covering would have been magnified, but that didn't happen. Attention will soon turn to revenue, ASP will come back into focus as will margins on lower spec Model 3's and in the end, everyone will return to their camps.
Don't you think that whisper number was much lower?
Heck, I would have been ok with 80K deliveries, and would survive 75K; considering all previous disappointments.
Indeed there were much lower estimates, and conversely there weren't any higher estimates really - if nothing else, the "demand" story will go away, at least for now.
I just don't think this sale number changes the narrative alone. Another quarter nudging 100k units might. 3 straight quarters around 100k units would get interesting for sure, but if earnings don't follow the volumes, only the faithful will remain convinced.
Do you think TSLA will exit the year higher that it entered it?
I think bears still think Q3 will be another Q1 do over (because of tax credit reduction). Look at their estimates in Troy's sheet for eg. They are expecting Model 3 deliveries in Q3 in 60s, with next 4 quarters being around 250k. Not just bears, even Troy. So, if Tesla can actually increase or maintain deliveries - the tax credit story goes away.
But Q1 '20 is probably critical. That finally can show that Q1 '19 was indeed an aberration. If things go well, that quarter could also put TSLA in S&P - which will indeed be structurally different and finally reduce short interest permanently.
If profitability returns, which I expect, yes, for sure, bar is low, it's around $300.
There is a significant change here that I want to emphasize. I've been watching and have been invested in Tesla for over 4 years, and this is a first, FIRST positive surprise when Tesla was quiet.
Perhaps something has changed, and Elon will continue to be relatively quiet and execute, regaining credibility in the process.
Also, this quarter does relieve me of demand concerns, as I was in short-term demand concern camp. They recovered quickly and beautifully.
agreed on all except the idea of permanent reduction of SI
aapl and amzn still amongst leaders in not short interest $ besides spy itself
although they have much more mkt cap obv
but i don’t think that goes away. we should be less than 40-45m shares tho, that’s kinda silly compared to float
Yes, when I say permanent reduction in SI - I'm basically talking about % of shares shorted. That should come down to Netflix levels, may be.
Sold all of my July19 calls early today, though not quite at the high. On the sidelines again now, waiting out July 4 holiday. Feels like this deliveries beat should have resulted in a much larger climb if not for the holiday. We'll see next week. I would expect some larger institutions to get back on board after this excellent deliveries report. I agree with Zhelko that Elon/Tesla did a much better job of managing expectations for the quarter, allowing a nice beat. This is the first big step in restoring credibility for Elon/Tesla, which is important for bringing big investors back.
Sold my weekly calls for a slight profit. Was waiting for a higher price, but decided to bail as it kept sliding. Looks like the July 4th curse is still with us.
Seems like the analysts and media are pushing the narrative that earnings will be bad and this is a fade into earnings. Not too bothered. Would love to buy some shares at 200. Maybe we fill some gaps below and double bottom at 180/200.
(On the other hand, we broke above the long term downtrend since December. So I can't square this with a drop back to 200. Once again, at a loss as to what the stock will do in the short term. So I just watch from the sides.)
Demand issue squashed.
Up 5 weeks in a row.
Refresh coming xs
They are coming. Should see a slow and steady rise. Whenever Tesla gaps up like this, the chance of finished the day at the high is pretty slim. The fact that we didn’t completely fade is important. I think we climb next week
@Navin and others re longterm Downtrend Line break:
Curious, I saw on many charts that it broke the downtrend, but I did see one chart where it didn't. So I went to tradeview and drew the lines myself. Turns out on the normal scale, it broke; but on the log scale, it hadn't (just touched the top). See pics attached. So, hmm...
I actually expected it to climb higher Wed, but we can write it off to 4th of July mischief. The test will be next week. But seems like the analysts and media are pushing the narrative that earnings will be bad and this is a fade into earnings. Being a news vacuum from now until earnings, the stock may in fact fade. I don't have a strong opinion here. I think it could go either way, but I'm leaning slightly toward it going down into earnings, and then going up afterwards. Not going to trade it either way, but I will add shares if it goes lower.
(Bear in mind that if it does in fact fade, it can still stay above the channel/downtrend line (on the normal scale), if it fades slowly enough -- see chart/pics.)
Hoping to see under $230 soon so I can buy again.
That's not exactly correct because my Model 3 delivery estimate for the next 4 quarters was 271K, not 250K and I made that estimate on 30 June 2019 before Tesla released the Q2 numbers. It turns out, my Model 3 delivery estimate on 30 June was short by 4K. Therefore it makes sense to increase all quarters by 4K (16K for 4 quarters). Therefore 271+16= 287K makes more sense to me now. My estimates are usually on the low side. The actual number could be somewhere between 287-307K Model 3 deliveries in the next 4 quarters.
So, are you expecting them to basically maintain around 70k a quarter - even though China GF will start production in Q1/Q2 of 2020 ?
Whats the sentiment for today?
I am thinking a push toward max pain which last I saw was 227.5 today. Altho I am hoping for a bump up to 240ish first so I can get a few short term puts. Then watch for a good exit point. With the light trading day I imagine hedge funds will be dropping the price too.
Edit: so much for a peak. I’ll go for long term calls if it drop significantly.
Closed by S&P short (SH) for a very small gain since Wednesday. Watching LTHM yet again (day traded it Weds) and TSLA now. I still think macros are overvalued though so a bit hesitant to buy anything, but also scared to short.