Trump threatens to end subsidies for electric vehicles

[Swampgator]

Rational argument would lead one to understand that EVs are better for the life and property of the country in the long run- so a subsidy that encourages their development and adoption might well be in the national interest of the government.





Nope.

It's physically impossible for that to happen- there's simply not enough battery capacity (or will there be in 15 years) to entirely replace ICE vehicles in that timeframe.

Even the most optimistic projections of battery production capacity won't be providing enough batteries to replace even half the ICE cars in the world, let alone all of em, in that timeframe.

This is where I would respectfully disagree. Yes, I know you are correct based on most estimates. Bloomberg energy estimates 55% EV by 2040, and they are typically more bullish than most. The thing to keep in mind though is disruption always happens faster than all of the experts can imagine. Resources are quickly shifted from existing models into the new technology. You are already seeing this with huge investments from LG, SDK, etc. The automakers are shifting too, but it will be too late for most of them.
Legacy product manufactures do not typically do well when disruptions occur. New players fill the void. Anyone bought a blackberry or Nokia lately? Have you read the Innovators dilemma? https://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Change-Business/dp/0062060244 ???
Most of the legacy guys are toast, and they know it. That is why they are all scrambling to get up to capacity on battery production. Some are really serious and understand, but most are dipping a toe in to test the water. ONLY Tesla and Elon Musk understood that battery production would be limiting their growth, and set out to invest lots of money into Giga 1 to solve that problem. They largely have done so, where nobody else has (yet)
This will change rapidly over the next 5 years though.
You don't have to incentivize products that consumers want to buy otherwise. Consumers want to but Teslas today. Soon, there will be others they want to buy as well. Rivian looks really good. I think Porsche is on the right track. VW maybe if they can actually release their "concept" vehicles into production. They also have planned to spend 60 Billion on battery production. We will see.

 

[Nocturnal]

https://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Change-Business/dp/0062060244 ???
Most of the l

Excellent book. Crossing the Chasm is also a good read to understand where Tesla was (they are beyond the "chasm" at this point).

 

[crackers8199]

This helps Tesla, and GM.
Why not get rid of all subsidies of any kind? No EV credits, but also so support for Oil, NG, anything.
Can't understand why one group that is all about picking winners and losers gets so upset when the picks go against them.
The purpose of government should be to protect property and life, not to decide which industries win or lose in competition.
Of course, this is a rational argument, which many on this forum unfortunately are unable to engage in.
End of the day, it does not matter at all what governments do at this point. EVs are just better, and within a year or 2, cheaper to make than ICE vehicles.
So ICE goes away from natural competition within the next 15 years. Governments all over the world may wet their finger and stick it up into the wind before declaring they are outlawing ICE vehicles in 2030, 2040, etc. They are not driving some progressive movement towards EV adoption, but rather jumping on the bandwagon and then claiming they are the driver.

not sure why you disagreed with my post man, what I said is factually correct. he cannot do this without Congress.

 

[Dexterryu]

I'm of two minds on this... as an EV advocate I'd support a rebate for all EV's equally for a period of time for all manufacturers.

The way it is set up now, Tesla and GM are at a major disadvantage. They've put forth tons of risk, engineering, and money to build the market but because they've hit their tax credit subsidies their cars (assuming they have equally priced/featured/quality) are now at a disadvantage.

So I think the most fair thing to happen is one of two things.

1) Extend EV tax credit for a set period of time for all manufacturers.
2) End EV tax credit for all manufacturers.

Personally I support option 1, but as a Tesla advocate I'd be OK with option 2 since it at worst evens the field in the EV space.

 

[Avid]

End all subsidies...after I get mine.

 

[ninpb]

From an economics and market curiosity, Id like to see the rebate play out as written. I think tesla has benefitted from the tax credit and has wisely reinvested early adopter money to establish their engineering, design, infrastructure and brand to not be life or death dependent on the credit.

It wouldn't be fair to Rivian who at this point only has the tax credit as a benefit bullit point. That's what I think the spirit of the law is, to encourage more ev manufacturing.

 

[ℬête Noire]

VW maybe if they can actually release their "concept" vehicles into production. They also have planned to spend 60 Billion on battery production. We will see.

VW is in a scale bind on battery production so at this point they're going to try cheat that by going hybrid. I'm unconvinced that they'll have the time for that to be the better path. I expect it'll be closer to doubling their pain with two transitions rather than spreading the pain over time because the ICE portion of the hybrid will quickly becomes a cost Albatros as BEV drivetrain tech quickly develops and costs are plummet.

See the rise of the Prius Prime (from Toyota's entrenchment in "self-charging" *cough* hybrids for near 20 years), the demise of the i3's REX, and now the Volt as obvious trajectory here. This is moving very fast now (and Bloomberg is off their nut on this, see their 2017 graph for battery price projections).

 

[BrokerDon]

Here is a different perspective. Did Obama really buy a Volt? If not he'd better get one soon:

Watch: Six Years Ago Obama Promised to Buy a Chevy Volt. Now It Is Dead | Breitbart

 

[ℬête Noire]

Here is a different perspective. Did Obama really buy a Volt? If not he'd better get one soon:

Watch: Six Years Ago Obama Promised to Buy a Chevy Volt. Now It Is Dead | Breitbart

LOL Breitbart. *eyeroll*

Yeah, it's a different perspective that missed the point that GM is moving past the hybrid half-measure already.

 

[McRatToo]

Trump’s a frikking bozo. Not surprising from an idiot who touts “clean coal”?

It was actually Jimmy Carter who shut down the nuclear expansion and increased fossil fuel production including coal. And back then coal was a lot dirtier.

 

[StellarRat]

I wouldn't get too worked up about this. Trump is like bringing bagpipes to war; a lot of noise, but no use.

 

[ℬête Noire]

It was actually Jimmy Carter who shut down the nuclear expansion and increased fossil fuel production including coal. And back then coal was a lot dirtier.

That's revisionist history BS. Carter supported nuclear power and among his accomplishments was getting Congress to make it easier to transition to light water reactors (the prior breeder tech had larger weapons proliferation issues).

What did happen in 1979 was the 3 Mile Island scare, which is what really fubar'd commercial nuclear power development for decades.

 

[McRatToo]

LOL Breitbart. *eyeroll*

Yeah, it's a different perspective that missed the point that GM is moving past the hybrid half-measure already.

It is still the most pragmatic vehicle design when it comes to emissions. A BEV is still a 'half-measure'. I can't refuel it everywhere, and it takes more than 5 minutes, and temperature affects both range and battery life. And they are very expensive for what you get.

The Volt:
Cheap.
Pure EV operation for >90% of commuter driving. Partial EV operation for further commutes.
Unlimited range when necessary, <5 minute remote range extension at >120,000 locations in the US alone.
Dual fuel. Runs during a blackout or if the EVSE broke last night or tripped a breaker. Runs when gas stations are closed.
More performance than economy cars.
Full regen at 100% charge, third highest regen.
Full rated instant max HP even when using the smaller gas range extender (via autobuffering).
<2.5 hr to full charge (2019 model) on L2, the most common EV network.
Very energy efficient for an EV.

But it's not religious. It's not a stock option, or fashion statement, or useful for relieving the guilt of being wealthy. It's simply the best engineered EREV to date. Nobody ever passed it. It the most common road vehicle in the USA that runs off electricity today.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I wouldn't get too worked up about this. Trump is like bringing bagpipes to war; a lot of noise, but no use.

Dangerous assumption. Because a meaningful number of the forehead slapping things he says he follows through on (or at least tries).

 

[McRatToo]

That's revisionist history BS. Carter supported nuclear power and among his accomplishments was getting Congress to make it easier to transition to light water reactors (the prior breeder tech had larger weapons proliferation issues).

What did happen in 1979 was the 3 Mile Island scare, which is what really fubar'd commercial nuclear power development for decades.

I think you need to read more about Jimmy Carter from his own words. He was a part of the USN nuclear navy who had a moral problem with nuclear expansion. His mentor was Rickover, the father of the nuclear fleet. Read up on Rickover too. Interesting fellow.

 

[ℬête Noire]

It is still the most pragmatic vehicle design when it comes to emissions. A BEV is still a 'half-measure'. I can't refuel it everywhere, and it takes more than 5 minutes, and temperature affects both range and battery life. And they are very expensive for what you get.

The Volt:
Cheap.
Pure EV operation for >90% of commuter driving. Partial EV operation for further commutes.
Unlimited range when necessary, <5 minute remote range extension at >120,000 locations in the US alone.
Dual fuel. Runs during a blackout or if the EVSE broke last night or tripped a breaker. Runs when gas stations are closed.
More performance than economy cars.
Full regen at 100% charge, third highest regen.
Full rated instant max HP even when using the smaller gas range extender (via autobuffering).
<2.5 hr to full charge (2019 model) on L2, the most common EV network.
Very energy efficient for an EV.

But it's not religious. It's not a stock option, or fashion statement, or useful for relieving the guilt of being wealthy. It's simply the best engineered EREV to date. Nobody every passed it. It the most common road vehicle in the USA that runs off electricity today.

Hybrids were always destined to be a dead end, and they are very rapidly approaching that dead end. For a huge majority of the population in the US they are 6 months away from not needing the Volt (even if some of them don't realize it).

GM's doing the smartest thing they could do right now and getting off rather than riding it into the wall.

 

[StellarRat]

Dangerous assumption. Because a meaningful number of the forehead slapping things he says he follows through on (or at least tries).

Maybe, but a lot of the things he threatens don't come to pass either. Besides, he's supposedly working on getting the Chinese tariffs on US cars reduced, so on the one hand he's threatening to do something that might hurt Tesla and on the other he's doing something that might help. ¡Ay, caramba!

Also, with the Model 3 going sale in Europe and Asia next year, I'm not sure that overall sales will drop even if the tax credit is gone. My guess is that they will increase substantially.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It is still the most pragmatic vehicle design when it comes to emissions. A BEV is still a 'half-measure'. I can't refuel it everywhere, and it takes more than 5 minutes, and temperature affects both range and battery life. And they are very expensive for what you get.

The Volt:
Cheap.

$34k+ is cheap? Interesting.

Pure EV operation for >90% of commuter driving. Partial EV operation for further commutes.
Unlimited range when necessary, <5 minute remote range extension at >120,000 locations in the US alone.
Dual fuel. Runs during a blackout or if the EVSE broke last night or tripped a breaker.

Long-range BEVs also run during blackouts or if the EVSE broke last night or tripped a breaker.
200/53 ~= 3.77

Runs when gas stations are closed.
More performance than economy cars.

More expensive than economy cars.

Full regen at 100% charge, third highest regen.
Full rated instant max HP even when using the smaller gas range extender (via autobuffering).
<2.5 hr to full charge (2019 model) on L2, the most common EV network.

That would be the 2019 model, the final model year of it.

Very energy efficient for an EV.

No it isn't. Not even close.

But it's not religious. It's not a stock option, or fashion statement, or useful for relieving the guilt of being wealthy. It's simply the best engineered EREV to date. Nobody every passed it. It the most common road vehicle in the USA that runs off electricity today.

It only become an EREV in 2019 when they gave it pure operation down to very low temperatures and a 30A charger that makes opportunity charging more likely to be worth it.

It's also not a CUV, it has poor headroom and wasn't promoted except after a terrible initial advertising campaign.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I think you need to read more about Jimmy Carter from his own words. He was a part of the USN nuclear navy who had a moral problem with nuclear expansion. His mentor was Rickover, the father of the nuclear fleet. Read up on Rickover too. Interesting fellow.

Page 506:
https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1209/ML120960615.pdf

There certainly were ethic issues to address but he still supported nuclear power in theory and practice. There is simply no credible support for your assertion.

 

[crackers8199]

<2.5 hr to full charge (2019 model) on L2, the most common EV network.

you say that as if it's a bonus point for the volt over a BEV, but conveniently leave out that a volt has what...one sixth the range of a LR model 3? of course it's going to take less time to charge to full on L2.

and i say that as a first generation volt owner who loves the car and still has it (have passed it on to my wife) - you're comparing apples to oranges.