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TSLA Due Diligence: 2030 Valuation Based On Analyzing Elon's Public Comments

Azntigar78

Member
Nov 26, 2018
5
1
San Francisco
Hey Tesla Fam!

What started out as my own due diligence, I decided to analyze a 2030 future valuation based on a lot of Elon's public comments over the past few years. I then turned it into a video, walking through all the public comments/assumptions, see link here:

This is obviously highly speculative, as Elon makes wild predictions, but he def is more conservative nowadays (Elon is conservative/sandbagging a lot of predictions at this point). And I started out with an assumption from a statement made at Battery Day (sandbagging Elon), "Future Value of Auto = Cars produced x Value of Autonomy".

Anyhow a summary of my valuation/assumptions are as follows:

➤ TSLA 2030 Valuation
➤ Assumptions:
➤ Cars produced 2016 and onwards have FSD capability
➤ Before 2030, Tesla will be producing ~20M vehicles/year
➤ 50% CAGR For Car Production Annually
➤ Level 5 Autonomy is reached and Value of FSD is $100,000 (Elon says level 5 will be reached this year, but this valuation is just assuming it will have worldwide adoption by 2030. Hopefully the worldwide adoption will happen when level 5 is reached and all the data shows it's 10x safer than a human; I'm hoping for 2022 and onwards with gradual worldwide adoption.)
➤ Tesla Auto = Total Vehicles Produced x Value Of Autonomy
➤ Value of Tesla Energy = 2030 Auto Revenue x 2.50 Revenue Multiple
➤ $10.29T Market Cap
➤ $10,856.45 Per Share

➤ Tesla Products Not Included in valuation: Insurance (could be 30-40% Auto Biz), HVAC, DOJO As A Service, VTOL Jet, etc.

Let me know what you guys think; if this valuation is plausible; why or why not? I think it's fairly accurate based on Elon's predictions; but of course this could end up being way off in either direction +/-. Obviously all us shareholders would love the market cap to be $15T+ in 10 years :)

Disclaimer: This is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Jason Chang / @jasonchaaang can not be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author (Jason Chang / @jasonchaaang) is long Tesla (TSLA), Square (SQ), ARKK, BPTRX, and the crypto currencies Bitcoin and Ethereum.
 
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Mengy

Member
Feb 18, 2020
572
4,375
PA
Very interesting analysis.

I'm only planning for like 1/3rd of this valuation, simply because I can't fathom my self being that immensely wealthy! :D

However, Tesla continuously shatters my growth expectations so I must admit my conservative estimations are likely way too conservative. Reality will probably be much closer to what you state.
 
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LightngMcQueen

Reject Irrationality
Nov 16, 2020
26
82
Canada
Thank you for putting in that awesome work .

I am not sure if I agree with FSD Value $100k for each car sold after 2016. While this amount seems reasonable for "working" cars fully engaged in ride sharing I am sure that many owners will choose to be very selective with sharing their cars.

Contemporary analogy would be house resale prices vs DCF AirBnb nightly rates. Many house owners fully consciously underutilize their properties, and would never rent them out, even if 100% automated checkin-cleanup-checkout system was available. Consequently they will not invest in such automated rental system unless price justify their usage level.

I suspect that Tesla will continue to provide partial (part time or partial scope) FSD at much lower price point similarly to current autopilot.
 
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Reactions: ReddyLeaf

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