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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Do you guys think they'll meet their sales target of 20k units a year? iirc, they did 1800 reservations in QI and did 1500 in Q4 of 2011. That's a far cry from the 5k reservations per quarter they'll need to meet their sales goals. Now that the Model S has been released do you really think they'll do over double the reservations they were doing before the shipments started going out?
That's really the only think I'm kind of worried about. Will Tesla be able to dramatically increase their reservations in the next year.
That's really the only think I'm kind of worried about. Will Tesla be able to dramatically increase their reservations in the next year.
I think they will exceed it by a good margin, in CA alone perhaps. It's really a small percentage of the market.
by the way Jeffies Capital just released a strong Model S review statement as follows:
"Jefferies said Tesla's Model S is the best performing performance sedan under $100K. The firm expects positive media reports on the Model S and is confident in its 5000 unit sales target"
by the way Jeffies Capital just released a strong Model S review statement as follows:
"Jefferies said Tesla's Model S is the best performing performance sedan under $100K. The firm expects positive media reports on the Model S and is confident in its 5000 unit sales target"
I played with the thought to move some money into TSLA that sits in a depreciating stock. Just in case that short squeeze might happens. But the stock never did what was anticipated in this thread, neither on good news, nor on chart witchcraft ("breaking the 200 day barrier" - LOL - unlike some sound barrier that can be deducted from physics). Methinks the shorts will abandon ship only when it becomes evident that Tesla turns cash positive the second or third quarter in a row. Not earlier. Neither a flawless ramp up to 5,000 cars nor an exploding reservation list will change their mind. Profits will. Nothing else.
Based on the test-drive reactions this weekend, no problem. The fact that Tesla has reservations for 10,000 cars without test drives tells me a lot. Get people behind the wheel, and the rate will pick up strongly.
I agree. Not only does Tesla have 10,000 reservations without test-drives but that is 10,000 $5,000 reservations (granted, fully refundable). That's a much bigger statement of support and interest than $99 the Leaf had. All this without traditional advertising too. Amazing. I hope they are able to keep it up. I bet they'll update the interior after the Model X arrives and take care of that concern. It will be a tough car to beat at that point.
None of that news was unexpected. Anyone who had a serious interest in the stock, and any analyst who seriously investigated the company, knew what the Model S would be, and knew a month ago or more that deliveries would start when they did. The Roadster has been on the roads for four years, as a testament to what Tesla is capable of, and SpaceX is a testament to what Elon Musk can accomplish. So as I said before, for the market, Friday was a non-event.
That's the sixty-four thousand dollar question. I'm bullish on Tesla. I think they'll do it. But that is indeed the next challenge they face. They need to get the production line up to speed, build and sell the cars, to show the market that they are here for the long haul. And as that happens, I think the stock will very gradually rise, though that rise will be hard to see under the inevitable fluctuations.
I think TSLA will be 20% higher in a year to a year and a half than it is now. Am I confident enough of that to put a significant part of my portfolio in it? No, I'm not. But I'm sure not going to sell my shares, either. I'm not a risk-taker, and there are real risks of all sorts, some of which Tesla has no control over.
Was was unexpected (well, new) was the universally glowing reviews.
George B mentioned in an interview, I think at the 6/22 thing, that based on the results coming out of the new stores that 20k was no problem. That lead me to believe they've got decent numbers on traffic vs. reservation rates.
I'm not trying to rain on Tesla's parade or anything but I'm just wondering what Tesla is going to do in order to increase sales. If they're relying on the coverage they've gotten from the media to more than double their reservations, well I don't think that by itself will be enough to increase awareness among non-enthusiasts.
I read an article that said they plan on opening 12 more stores by the end of the year. They already have 22 stores. Personally I think Tesla's product is excellent and if they were able to educate the public about electric cars then they'd be flying off the showroom floors. I just don't know if they're doing enough right now that will spur their sales to over double their sales they were doing before the release.
If they started a Volt-type advertising campaign then I think that would definitely increase awareness. But if they're solely relying on the media's coverage and opening a few stores then I have my reservations. Time will tell, but at least they have the 10,000 back order right now.
When Toyota first brought the Prius to North America in 2000 (2001 model year), they did very little advertising and got terrible reviews (perhaps because they did very little advertising--I have one of those early ones and it's still a great car). Most of the Prius success is due the early Prius owners showing and bragging about their car. I believe that Tesla owners will do the same. You really only need advertising when you are up in the 100,000+ cars/year (or have a bad car).
Right, but look at the dealer networks that any of the big automakers have compared to Tesla. Tesla has 22 stores; the big automakers probably have 22 dealerships in the Los Angeles area alone. The comparison doesn't really fly because of the huge network of dealers that Toyota and other big automakers have.
Many of the 10,000 reservations that they have right now are enthusiasts and people that have been following Tesla for the last 3+ years. I'm just wondering if we can capture the regular joe who doesn't know anything about EVs. The good thing is that I have a lot of confidence in Musk and Blankenship so that eases my worries a lot.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
With the internet there is just a lot more free "advertising", good products sell themselves. As more Model S's show up in the wild with enthusiastic owners raving about them demand could spike quite significantly. At this point spending dollars for ads on a sold out product makes no sense.
I think there are a huge number of untapped "enthusiasts". I found out about the Model S accidentally when talking to someone who knew about it. Ironically, he hasn't reserved yet and I reserved almost immediately (Jan 2011).
My reasons aren't because it's green or because it's not gas, but because I love a great car and being a software geek I really appreciate technology. Tesla has a huge market just in the tech folks, who make good money. I'll be giving at least a dozen people test drives and Tesla will be in a bunch of major malls. It's not hard to see it going "viral", people seeing a Tesla, seeing the store in a mall, checking things out, etc.
I have zero doubt in my mind at least one or two of the people I show the car to will end up ordering. Multiply that by the current 10k reservation holders and Tesla should be in good shape.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I was at the dentist this afternoon for a routine checkup. My dentist, who had not been thinking about electric, is really excited about the S and is heading to Santana Row this weekend. He was planning on getting a new car in a year and is in love with the S.
I agree with ckessel. People will be buying this car not because they are an EV enthusiast, but because they frickin' LOVE this car.
I agree with ckessel. People will be buying this car not because they are an EV enthusiast, but because they frickin' LOVE this car.
I even talked my parents, who are close to retirement, into getting a Model S. Granted, they never would have know about Tesla (at this early point) if I didn't have one but they're really excited and going to show all their friends. It will definitely open the car up to a group that normally wouldn't see a Model S for a long time given where they live.
I also have many people at work who ask me non-stop 'is your car here yet'? I don't even have to bring it up. Granted only a small percentage of those people will buy a Model S but I bet I've got at least one more Model S sale in me this year.
I also have many people at work who ask me non-stop 'is your car here yet'? I don't even have to bring it up. Granted only a small percentage of those people will buy a Model S but I bet I've got at least one more Model S sale in me this year.
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Also, I think there's some "settling in" for Tesla in terms of market niche awareness. I keep seeing articles, over and over, talk about the Nissan Leaf's sales. Ok, I get it, it's an EV, but I think they authors completely have it wrong. The Model S isn't in the Leaf market niche. It'd be like comparing the BMW 5 series to the Camry...it's just not apples and oranges.
Once Model S buyers, who are undoubtedly financially secure overall, start showing it to their friends, it should become clear comparing the Leaf to the Model S makes no sense.
Once Model S buyers, who are undoubtedly financially secure overall, start showing it to their friends, it should become clear comparing the Leaf to the Model S makes no sense.
They will increase their sales via test drives at the stores! I'll wager that based on the reviews and feedback seen here, the wait for the Model S will quickly escalate to 12+ months by the end of the year. I've talked to many people that said if the car drives well, they will buy it. More stores equals more people in the car and more sales. You can't sell the skeptics without the test drive.
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