TSLA Investor Discussions

[daniel]

Not to mention those who cancelled their Model S reservation and then placed a Model X reservation. Between the two models, I believe there are more than 25,000 reservation holders.

And while it doesn't help for people who just look at verifiable published numbers, there are dedicated Tesla supporters who concluded that the S is too expensive for their budget, and are chomping at the bit waiting to reserve a GenIII.

I don't know enough about your situation, so take this with a grain of salt.

If you are happy with the 200 shares you have, then I think you should be patient. Leave it and watch how things play out the next few days, $24 is not outside the realm of possibility. If you can split that into two separate buys, you might want to consider buying 20 shares at $26 and the other 30 at $24. That's what I would do, I never try to catch the bottom.

You guys know what I'm going to say: buy on the way down, sell on the way up.

Again, a lot of things to consider; but if it were my money, that's probably the strategy I'd employ.

Thanks. As I've said before, this is sort of a hobby stock for me. Not a significant part of my portfolio. But I love what the company is doing, and I believe they'll succeed in the long term. I lacked the foresight to buy Apple or Micro$oft in the early days. I think Tesla could be big like that in a decade or two. I just hope I'm still around to see it.

... It's hard to feel good about the short term prospects of this stock...

Agreed on the short term. I think there are many obstacles to overcome along the way, and I think the market will change its perception slowly. But I also think that Tesla has the engineering skills and the management skills to pull it off, and a good lead in the sector. I do not agree with those who think that "as soon as <X> happens," the stock will skyrocket. But I do think the company will succeed, and that as it does the stock will rise.

My advice to Tesla and Elon Musk: under promise and over deliver. So far it's been the opposite. With the latter, the surprises are almost always unpleasant. With the former strategy it would be a different case.

They overpromised on the production schedule, but not on the product. Everyone who's driven the car has been blown away by it. I flew to Seattle 15 months ago out of desperation. My EV aspirations were crumbling around me. My expectations for the Roadster were not high. I just wanted to see if it might be barely acceptable. Instead I found it to be the best car I'd ever driven. And I still feel the same way about my Roadster, in spite of a few imperfections. (Notably the uncomfortable seats.)

On the product, Tesla over-delivers. And in the long run that's what matters. Customer satisfaction is what counts, not how rapidly they can ramp up production. Because the latter is transitory. The former is lasting.

 

[CarbonTax]

And those that bought Tesla stock to fund their purchase with profits thinking the stock value would be up much more than it is now. Now, they can't afford the car and have to cancel.

Count me as a TSLA long that can't wait for stock appreciation, resv. #313X, but went to testdrive a Chevy Volt today. Yeah, I know it's not apples v apples, hybrid, smaller interior, but $20k less. My daily commute is less than 30 miles, so I would be oft amped, with only a reserve gallon of petrol sloshing around for months...

 

[tander]

This week's 8-K was a thorough spoiler for the 10-Q, so I doubt that there'll be much stock reaction to the Q3 numbers. The Q3 earnings call, though, could be interesting.

That's a good point. It would be nice if it's already priced in. But they still have to actually do the stock offering sometime this week right? 5% dilution should equal a 5% drop in share price but it doesn't always work that way.

 

[artsci]

Count me as a TSLA long that can't wait for stock appreciation, resv. #313X, but went to testdrive a Chevy Volt today. Yeah, I know it's not apples v apples, hybrid, smaller interior, but $20k less. My daily commute is less than 30 miles, so I would be oft amped, with only a reserve gallon of petrol sloshing around for months...

I have a Volt, which I love, but there are too many times when I have to exceed the battery range and run on gas, which, in principle, I hate to do. I'm one of those people who believes the sooner we rid ourselves of the current addiction to fossil fuels the better. I want to put my money where my mouth is.

 

[daniel]

That's a good point. It would be nice if it's already priced in. But they still have to actually do the stock offering sometime this week right? 5% dilution should equal a 5% drop in share price but it doesn't always work that way.

It depends what they do with the money. If the money goes out to present stockholders as dividends, or to executives as bonuses, then the stock is diluted and share price should drop. But if the money is invested in the company, or is used to pay down a loan, then it should not affect stock price. Cash is an asset. The cash raised offsets the increase in the number of outstanding shares.

(I held the same mistaken assumption until someone on here pointed this out to me.)

OTOH, if the market reads the issue as a sign that the company is having a hard time, share price could fall, but if the market sees it as furthering a positive growth plan, the price could rise.

 

[xhawk101]

It depends what they do with the money. If the money goes out to present stockholders as dividends, or to executives as bonuses, then the stock is diluted and share price should drop. But if the money is invested in the company, or is used to pay down a loan, then it should not affect stock price. Cash is an asset. The cash raised offsets the increase in the number of outstanding shares.

(I held the same mistaken assumption until someone on here pointed this out to me.)

OTOH, if the market reads the issue as a sign that the company is having a hard time, share price could fall, but if the market sees it as furthering a positive growth plan, the price could rise.

No recent posts?

 

[Brian H]

actually no, they received a wakeup call from the DOE

Tesla Told to Speed Repayment of U.S. Electric-Car Loan - Bloomberg

Deliberate misreading? The accelerated payments are contingent on earlier than expected profitability.

 

[tray loader]

Deliberate misreading? The accelerated payments are contingent on earlier than expected profitability.

No Brian, deliberate MISLEADING.

I´m shure You followed the Autoblog Interview on Sept. 7th:

Elon Musk :"...Musk: I actually think Tesla is in a pretty good position. In principle, if we raise no further funding, Tesla should be able to reach cash-flow breakeven, so that's kind of where we are right not. It's a public company, so you can see our financials. We've got a couple hundred million dollars. If we make a bunch of screw-ups, then we'll be in trouble, but if we execute reasonably well, then we'll be in good shape. As I mentioned in the last earnings call, we are considering doing a small financing round just to improve the cash cushion, just in case bad things happen, but hopefully that's money we'll never use. We might go something like that, but it's not yet approved by the board..."

Basically the same repetition as in the conference call weeks before.

here´s the Autoblog link just in case You forgot:
In deep with Tesla CEO Elon Musk: Financials, Falcon doors and finding faults in the Model S


He furthermore states that the DOE loan basically needed the security of a Daimler credit line.

Sept. 25th:
8-K filing, principally no money left.
Issue additional stock, negotiate with DOE for repayments.No wonder Daimler seems so quiet recently.

So that is the OPPOSITE content of the interview....

I do not like those games.
That´s not honesty on Musks part, instead we constantly witness a hidden agenda, on the shoulders of his hard working employees, Designers, marketing people and George B and in the end us as shareholders.

 

[Brian H]

Not to mention those who cancelled their Model S reservation and then placed a Model X reservation. Between the two models, I believe there are more than 25,000 reservation holders.

Not even close. About 1900 Model X, 14,000 Model S. Maybe 16,000 total.

- - - Updated - - -

No Brian, deliberate MISLEADING.

...
That´s not honesty on Musks part, instead we constantly witness a hidden agenda, on the shoulders of his hard working employees, Designers, marketing people and George B and in the end us as shareholders.

Horse pucky. Tesla will be required to make early payments only and when it becomes profitable and no longer is dependent on the loan money.

Your paranoia will keep you burbling and happy for some time though, I'm sure.

 

[tray loader]

Not even close. About 1900 Model X, 14,000 Model S. Maybe 16,000 total.

- - - Updated - - -



Horse pucky. Tesla will be required to make early payments only and when it becomes profitable and no longer is dependent on the loan money.

Your paranoia will keep you burbling and happy for some time though, I'm sure.

No need to get personal, yet still not answering a single question.
Team Tesla?
How will they raise all the cash for the charger grid expansion & new stores, hiring second and third shifts, not to speak of brutal material inventory needed to be able to ramp up for 20k units?
Quality end control, delivery challenges all over the world, and all that BEFORE warranty issues and cost, since all new cars rely on those?

Do You really think the projected "income" thru a second offering of ~150 million will be sufficient for those challenges?
Really Brian?

That´s not paranoia, that´s a driving stock factor.

 

[aznt1217]

I think the arguments back and forth about the projected financials aren't going to do much good ATM mainly because we all know the financials look like crap when a company is in its burn rate phase.

What we need to realize is the secondary offering is strictly part of the DOE's new ratio requirements in order to extend terms of the loan and not so much out of desperation. The real problem lies in the supplier shortages. For those considering buying the stock or deciding whether or not to dump it have to ask yourselves: is the product good and is there a market? I test drove a Model S extensively and it's superb it put my mind at ease. If you know the type of buyer and market tesla is going for, the model s is a value proposition and a statement making car.

The other thing that has to be done is tuning out the noise. People will reference DMC a lot when speaking about Tesla, but forget to mention that the delorean as a product did not deliver on its promises, the performance on the vehicle was atrocious. People will also draw comparisons to leaf and volt sales. People judge those cars as electric cars which already spell compromise. The Model S is being compared to gas guzzling competitors and is being judged as a vehicle.

Right now it's just a matter of time and execution. I believe most at Tesla understand this (at least I hope they do) given their past experience with the roadster delay.

 

[Tempus]

to me, the most comforting (not sure that's the right word as a stockholder, but you get the idea) part of the whole thing is that at the end of the day, EVERYONE is saying that the Model S is a fantastic car. It may take a bit longer to get some of their manufacturing or supplier issues sorted out than they had hoped, and that may cause some short term pain and angst with the stock price, and maybe even cause them to need to raise additional capital, but at the end of the day, the product is here, and it's amazing, and that's what they really need.

 

[Doug_G]

Your paranoia will keep you burbling and happy for some time though, I'm sure.

Personal attacks are not appreciated in this forum. Please keep the discussions civil. -mod

 

[aznt1217]

to me, the most comforting (not sure that's the right word as a stockholder, but you get the idea) part of the whole thing is that at the end of the day, EVERYONE is saying that the Model S is a fantastic car. It may take a bit longer to get some of their manufacturing or supplier issues sorted out than they had hoped, and that may cause some short term pain and angst with the stock price, and maybe even cause them to need to raise additional capital, but at the end of the day, the product is here, and it's amazing, and that's what they really need.

My point exactly.

- - - Updated - - -

Personal attacks are not appreciated in this forum. Please keep the discussions civil. -mod

The stock market can def. do that to some people on both sides of the coin. I think its when one gets emotional about investing is an indication of taking a step bank and using your head and not your heart to invest.

 

[kenliles]

short position officially summits 30M shares
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

 

[aznt1217]

I was never a fan of shorting any stock. Usually I'd like to believe that we want companies to progress and improve as it would have a greater macro effect on the economy. Anyway, with that said I really cannot comprehend why so many people WANT Tesla to fail. That's right I said it people WANT it to fail.

The short interest pretty much displays that and a lot of publications such as our friend JP in Anti-Tesla Jibberish want it to. I think people fail to see the big picture. If anything, WE as American people should be hoping Tesla succeeds. It helps everybody. Not just for people who can afford an awesome vehicle. This would have a huge macro effect on the economy and competitors.

If Tesla were to succeed we can finally bring the market in line in regard to petrol. We can finally use the huge natural gas deposits that the US has a surplus of. We can advance solar technology. We can push competing car companies to make better cars. Even more importantly we can create JOBS. The jobs that the economy so desperately needs in more than one function. Manufacturing for the cars, sales jobs for the retail stores, corporate jobs for growth in Tesla, and maintenance jobs for stores and service centers. This translates for more money flowing around the economy, more spending, and more importantly has a domino effect on the service sector which the US relies so heavily on for jobs.

So with ALL these benefits I really cannot fathom why there's so much hatred out there for what Tesla is doing. Yes they took a DOE loan, but not every company is a Solyndra. Not everybody is Elon Musk. You better believe that he picks some high performers to surround him. A Players only play with A players. It's culture when it comes down to it. People who nitpick at the loan, fail to see the purpose of a loan. The US will get it back and will get it back with interest. It's like when people focused on lending to the big banks for TARP. The US actually profited off of that loan program. We lost money when we invested in GM which makes inferior products (although getting better) and was poorly managed at the time.

Anyway as full disclosure I am fully invested in Tesla because all my words mean nothing if I'm not willing to back it up.

 

[Teslawisher]

At least there seem to be some analysts that are seeing through the fog...
Maxim Group Reiterates Buy Rating, $50 PT on Tesla Motors | Benzinga

 

[vfx]

...

If Tesla were to succeed we can finally bring the market in line in regard to petrol. We can finally use the huge natural gas deposits that the US has a surplus of. We can advance solar technology. We can push competing car companies to make better cars. Even more importantly we can create JOBS. The jobs that the economy so desperately needs in more than one function. Manufacturing for the cars, sales jobs for the retail stores, corporate jobs for growth in Tesla, and maintenance jobs for stores and service centers. This translates for more money flowing around the economy, more spending, and more importantly has a domino effect on the service sector which the US relies so heavily on for jobs. ....

To pile on

The nonprofit CalETC, based in Sacramento, has been studying the economic effects of EV drivers spending money (less) on electricity as a transportation fuel in CA.
They released their report on National Plug-In Day this past Sunday. Here are their key findings:
• Electric Vehicles can be a catalyst for economic growth, contributing nearly 100,000 additional jobs by 2030.
• On average, a dollar saved at the gas pump and spent on the other household goods and services creates 16 times more jobs than a dollar spent on refined petroleum product.
• Unlike the fossil fuel supply chain, the majority of new demand financed by PEV efficiency savings goes to in-state services, a source of diverse, bedrock jobs.
• Individual Californians gain from electric car deployment whether they buy new cars or not. Average real wages and employment increase across the economy and incomes grow faster for low- and middle- income groups than for high-income groups.

For more information, go to www.caletc.com and click Facts under the section describing the report. The full report PDF is available under "Click to Learn More."

 

[avatar]

No Brian, deliberate MISLEADING.

I´m shure You followed the Autoblog Interview on Sept. 7th:

Elon Musk :"...Musk: I actually think Tesla is in a pretty good position. In principle, if we raise no further funding, Tesla should be able to reach cash-flow breakeven, so that's kind of where we are right not. It's a public company, so you can see our financials. We've got a couple hundred million dollars. If we make a bunch of screw-ups, then we'll be in trouble, but if we execute reasonably well, then we'll be in good shape. As I mentioned in the last earnings call, we are considering doing a small financing round just to improve the cash cushion, just in case bad things happen, but hopefully that's money we'll never use. We might go something like that, but it's not yet approved by the board..."

Basically the same repetition as in the conference call weeks before.

here´s the Autoblog link just in case You forgot:
In deep with Tesla CEO Elon Musk: Financials, Falcon doors and finding faults in the Model S


He furthermore states that the DOE loan basically needed the security of a Daimler credit line.

Sept. 25th:
8-K filing, principally no money left.
Issue additional stock, negotiate with DOE for repayments.No wonder Daimler seems so quiet recently.

So that is the OPPOSITE content of the interview....

I do not like those games.
That´s not honesty on Musks part, instead we constantly witness a hidden agenda, on the shoulders of his hard working employees, Designers, marketing people and George B and in the end us as shareholders.

Hi All - Long time reader of the forum but first time poster so hello ! One reasonable explanation for this is that Musk under-estimated cash burn during the ramp by an order of magnitude. Manually inspecting cars and holding up the assembly line is expensive business. Quite possible that they just burnt through that cushion he keeps talking about.

I have another theory on why he is annoucing the raise right now. With 30 million shares short I think its possible he is trying to capitalize on a massive short squeeze. getting the regulatory stuff out of the way is smart in preparation for an appreciation in the stock. I know if I wanted to raise a lot of money I would time it when the shorts where desperate for new shares to buy to meet those short positions.Someone here asked the question - who would pay $30/Share for TSLA? The answer: every short that needs to cover their position in Q4-Q1.

 

[daniel]

to me, the most comforting (not sure that's the right word as a stockholder, but you get the idea) part of the whole thing is that at the end of the day, EVERYONE is saying that the Model S is a fantastic car. It may take a bit longer to get some of their manufacturing or supplier issues sorted out than they had hoped, and that may cause some short term pain and angst with the stock price, and maybe even cause them to need to raise additional capital, but at the end of the day, the product is here, and it's amazing, and that's what they really need.

Absolutely. The only thing I'd say different is that the short-term problems are inevitable. The market is distrustful of start-ups and EVs; suppliers will always be a problem with a new business; Murphy's Law; all these things and more or similar plague every new company. But as Tempus says, the product is solid, the demand exists, and the spread between electricity and gas prices will grow wider. It will continue to be a rocky road for several years. The market will not accept Tesla over night. But it will come as the cars continue to show their stuff and the engineers and managers continue to be creative and motivated.

I was never a fan of shorting any stock. Usually I'd like to believe that we want companies to progress and improve as it would have a greater macro effect on the economy. Anyway, with that said I really cannot comprehend why so many people WANT Tesla to fail. That's right I said it people WANT it to fail.

You are mixing two separate issues: The short investors and the haters. While there may be overlap, they are fundamentally different.

Investors sell a stock short because they expect the price to go down. There are principled investors who put their money where their principles are, but mostly the market is made up of people who want to make money, whether it be in the long term or the short term. And people who think that EVs are "impractical" and that batteries will never be affordable are likely to be skeptical of Tesla. So they short the stock, expecting it to go down.

The haters are acting on emotion. They see EVs as a threat to an industry that they associate with their own sense of self. People who love Detroit or the old muscle cars or pickup trucks or big SUVs. They may see the EV crowd as "holier than thou" or they may feel that we are trying to take away their right to burn oil like there's no tomorrow. They may even be angry because we are not paying gas tax, or because they have to pay so much for gas, or because they erroneously believe that we are going to break the electric grid by plugging in our cars.

Then there are people like JP who are in direct competition with Tesla, but those are very few and hardly relevant to the discussion.

I do not believe that the people shorting Tesla are motivated by a desire for Tesla to fail. Of course, once they hold a short position they want Tesla to fail so they'll make money, but their motivation is a belief that it will fail.

I have never met anybody who wanted EVs or Tesla to fail. Most of the people I talk to feel that an EV won't work for them because of range anxiety. But none of them are hostile. They're just skeptical. And everybody who rides in or drives a Tesla loves it, even if they think they need a stinker.

I think you are mistaken when you assume that the haters are the ones shorting the stock. People who can afford a margin account within which to sell short are not likely to invest based on their hatreds. They invest based on their expectations.