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There is no guarantee that the stock will fall down to or below the offer at 28.25 allthough it probably will. I`ve been through many offerings where the stock seems disconnected from reality :)

IPOs yes (FB comes to mind) but with this follow on I feel confident it will be traded on the open market at $28 come next week (oct 3rd)
 
On a tangent, I was thinking about various lots of TSLA that I've picked up over the past few months some of which I intend to go long on while I may want to sell some others in the near future to take some profits. I had kind of raised this before but, essentially, I wanted to understand the tax implications of selling a subset of my TSLA holdings at various points in time.

This is probably not news for many of you active investors, but, was very enlightening to me:

Fool.com: Identifying Stock Sold for Tax Purposes

Of course, if I can always sell above my highest purchase price ever, FIFO vs. specific identification shouldn't matter as long as they are all in the same time bucket (long-term or short-term)... I think :)
 
OK, can someone tell me why the stock is now trading at $29.66?

It may be that many are expecting what IIRC is called an "up-round", that is, a stock offering during which the stock price goes up.

That's what happened during Tesla's last offering. We were discussing it at the time, as Elon had made statements that at his previous companies, he also did several up-rounds. He seems to be good at that.
 
Interesting,
so they are desperate for even more money.
In the beginning there was a talk about 120-140 million,
now it´s a "little" more....

Now let´s hope for some life infusion from Daimler/Abu Dhabi,
maybe even positive news would help the stock.

What definitely seems the case, that the new B Class "Electric Drive" stems from their cooperation, tho no news ATM how many they really plan to bring to market.
At least the car is real and @ Paris Auto Show, alive and kicking:

b klasse electric - Google-Suche

Maybe the drivetrain of the new SLS "Electric Drive" (former E-Cell labeling)
is also something from Palo Alto, tho this would be spectacular news and Elon would´ve banked the PR on that.
*praying*

C´mon guys

Where do you get "desperate" from? It's just sound management.

Actually, I am very encouraged by how events are proceeding. As I stated last week, if Tesla can get good terms for their secondary the net result could be to increase the value of the company. If Tesla was in dire shape the offer price would have been lower, and there would have been fewer shares. As it is the offer price was higher than the actual market price of the stock at the time of the announcement.

Maybe some of the real investment types in this thread can comment (my expertise is in newspaper publishing/consulting and software development/deployment), but in my experience if a company is offering a million shares at a given price, but then decides to offer 2 million shares at the same price, thats an expression of strength, not weakness and is a very good thing overall.

There are two reasons that I can think of off hand why this is true. First, 1 million shares @ $1/share means your company is worth $1,000,000. 2 million shares @ $1/share means your company is worth $2,000,000. Being desperate to be worth $2,000,000 instead of $1,000,000 seems pretty sane to me.

Second, Tesla worked with its underwriters (Goldman Sachs) to determine the offering price and how many shares. They do this by polling the market to determine demand and then plug it into their models. Basic economics rules everything, and the price of anything (including Tesla) is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. So selling more stock at the given price is an indication of strength, not weakness. We'll see how it goes when the shares actually hit the market, but the fact that the market is pricing the stock at ~$29 in anticipation of the new issue is a very good sign.

Everyone (including me) has been concerned about a gun to the head scenario (as painted by the shorts) where Tesla gets taken to the cleaners during a secondary. This is not that scenario. From what I can see, the net effect of this offering is that Tesla will have a higher market cap with little (if any) real dilution to existing shareholder value.

And in exchange for making their company more valuable (with little, if any, dilution of shareholder value), management will get a hefty new chunk of capital to work through their short term production issues while continuing to fund their new product development, retail rollout and SuperCharger deployment. Yes, they sound desperate as heck. I'm terrified for their prospects :wink:

Anyways we'll see once the secondary hits. If the price drops to ~$26 that would be an expected (to me) level of dilution for this many extra shares. At ~$28 or more thats basically no dilution from a shareholder standpoint and a big win for the company.

Tesla Motors Increases Stock Sale - WSJ.com

Investors cheered the vote of confidence shown by the larger than expected number of shares, boosting Tesla's stock price 4% to $29.65 in Friday afternoon trading. Goldman Sachs GS -1.35% Group is handling the share sale.

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It may be that many are expecting what IIRC is called an "up-round", that is, a stock offering during which the stock price goes up.

That's what happened during Tesla's last offering. We were discussing it at the time, as Elon had made statements that at his previous companies, he also did several up-rounds. He seems to be good at that.

That's what I am thinking. If the secondary comes in above $28/share thats basically free money from both a management and shareholder perspective. Considering the problems it solves, it tends to support the idea that the price of the stock is being held back by short term issues which this offering does a fair bit to mitigate.
 
With regards to the follow-on offering: While the current shares undoubtebly are being diluted by the addition of new shares, at the same time fresh capital is being injected in to TSLA at a time where they really need working capital so that the company as a whole will be more robust and have the new cash on the books. Therefore maybe the net effect on the share price should be unchanged, or even increase as this takes off some of the pressure? I think it should be very positive. One thing to consider that is important IMO is that right now everyone is just focusing on the production rate and sales of the Model S and of course this is the most important thing in the near term, but by rasing capital now TSLA will be able to "keep up the pace" when it comes to development of the Model X and more importantly the Gen III. Tesla is currently years ahead of all the competetion when it comes to bringing products to the market (As this is being written more Model S's are being produced and delivered - they are out there on the streets, working well, being recieved very positively by owners and press) - you cannot even start to compare the Model S to a LEAF, MiEV, Think, etc. (that is the actual current competition). It's so important in the somewhat longer run for Tesla to keep their headstart. This capital raise will allow them to not slow down their agressive game plan in in the longer run that is where the real value of the current follow-on offering lies.
 
So, for the ignorant (i.e. me), what happens to the offering if the stock price changes significantly up or down between now and the actual offering? I'm not talking transitory volatility, but what if it's at $25 or $35 on the actual follow on offering date?
 
I'm going to increase my position in Tesla, but I really don't understand this offering. Does this offering mean that I'll get the stocks if I put in an order at $28.25? Or will the stocks be sold at market price, but not any lower than $28.50?

It would be great to hear from some of the experts here on the forum about how they think the stock price will develop and what would be a good time to buy more shares.

I'm reading this thread every single day. Thanks to everyone who is posting here!
 
Hi everyone. Long-time reader and Tesla fan. First time poster.

I don't claim to understand how this offering works, but I am thinking, if Goldman Sachs and clients are spending $225 mln on TSLA shares at $28.25, wouldn't that be a very strong support level for the stock? Especially after the decreased expectations for Q4 are already priced in.

I just sold some $27 Oct 20 put options for $0.83 for an annualized gain of 66% (if I'm calculating it correctly). If the price dips below, I'm getting 200 shares for $26.17, which I don't mind at all. I probably could have gotten a better price if I didn't wait until today.

What do you guys think? I can't afford a Model S yet, but I can afford to invest $5-$10k in Tesla stock and I am looking for riskier plays with higher return than holding the stock. I got some cheap $30 call options for Oct right after the bad news came out last week and am hoping to make a nice return there (breakeven would be at $30.75). The majority of my investment in TSLA is in less risky $30 Mar '13 and $20 Jan '14 call options.

If the stock is below $20 in January of 2014, I am probably not getting a Model S anyway, because the Tesla factory was attacked by angry Martians.
 
I'm going to increase my position in Tesla, but I really don't understand this offering. Does this offering mean that I'll get the stocks if I put in an order at $28.25? Or will the stocks be sold at market price, but not any lower than $28.50?

It would be great to hear from some of the experts here on the forum about how they think the stock price will develop and what would be a good time to buy more shares.

I'm reading this thread every single day. Thanks to everyone who is posting here!

Large scale investors have already purchased the stock at the quoted price. Anything we can buy will be at the market price. In theory the market can go down as they sell their inventory, but they likely wouldn't have agreed to the price they did if they didn't expect to make money.

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Just to expand on that, my understanding is that several big Fidelity funds were players in buying up the secondary. Along with Goldman of course which can purchase another ~600k shares over and above the shares already released.

Also, the shorts I listen to are pissed about how well this offering went for Tesla. They expected the offering to come in much lower, and I presume their positions reflected that.
 
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