TSLA Investor Discussions

[JRP3]

They want the stock price to drop as much as possible, they would be financially rewarded by the worst case scenario for a business. They are betting on it. The outcome I described is therefore in their best interest. I assume they are aware of that.
Yes I am very emotionally involved in Tesla being successful. Because of that I am probably more informed about the stock than any of my other holdings. I see that as a positive. I have not done anything foolish like put my life savings in the stock. I agree that it's usually better not to be emotionally involved in stocks.

 

[brianman]

They want the stock price to drop as much as possible, they would be financially rewarded by the worst case scenario for a business. They are betting on it. The outcome I described is therefore in their best interest. I assume they are aware of that.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

If the company goes out of business ("drop as much as possible") then they have to go find another stock to go short next round. Thus, that's not the best case scenario for a short seller -- unless it's his last trade ever, I suppose.

 

[firstinflite]

@firstinflite Thanks for all the info. I sold mine too at 37.6--just by luck, got the highest price! Still it's a good experience for my first stock trade ever Seeing as how I bought it at about 35.5, I made some money. Still it feels too much like gambling, but at least with info. like yours we can pretend it's not. How low would you expect it to go next week?

TSLA has now entered a new period of postive cash flow and willl most likely continue this trend for a long time... it's important to note that cash flow postive cannot be found anywhere in TSLA's history since the inception of the company--making the stock highly unpredictable at the moment bc we're chartering unknown territory, breaking many resistence points.

The swings next week can go either way, but will most likely IMO be lower. I expect the price to drop to the low $36s and high $35s if we're lucky. Currently the market is still trying to find an equilibrium price as investors have been slowly cashing in and selling off their shares, and shorts finding a reasonable cover price. Historically, this stock has always had a pull back after 1-2 days of solid gains after large percentages of shorts covering.... after 7 straight days of gains TSLA is starting to lose momentum, and it has shown recently on Friday when the stock reached $37.50 and closed below $37.. therefore, I am waiting for a price drop Monday and maybe Tuesday as investors cash in, since shorts are betting against TSLA at the new highs, should the stock price falls Monday morning at 6:30 then the fall will accelerate even lower at a faster pace (2 - 4% historically)... but again, that is historically speaking, we are at a new era of very positve news waiting at the forefront and more people are starting to be aware of the existence of this company and its superior batteries making it unpredictable.. in short, if you bet on a stock based on its historical performance, sell TSLA fast and rebuy next week; if you are holding out hope that there will be new records being set by TSLA, then HOLD.

The wild card is whether insiders such as Gilbert, Blankenship, Deepak decides to hold or sell, if they sell (which they usually do at TSLA highs, then they will sell in large quantities, which can drive the price even lower creating a little panic amongst investors which creates more sales.... this example was seen a couple weeks ago when Mercedes sold over $1 worth of TSLA and the stock dropped about 4-5% in one day). Historically, insiders such as Gilbert and Deepak pull the trigger and sell very quickly, especially during squeezies. Sell and rebuy before Friday is my tactic, looking for low $36 or a little below that will make my day =) hope that helps.

 

[kenliles]

I tend to agree overall. But I will hold what I have horizon any decline, then add to it for the report

 

[FredTMC]

I tend to agree overall. But I will hold what I have horizon any decline, then add to it for the report

Yep. I'll just add to what I got with any pullback

 

[ggr]

The wild card is whether insiders such as Gilbert, Blankenship, Deepak decides to hold or sell, if they sell (which they usually do at TSLA highs, then they will sell in large quantities, which can drive the price even lower creating a little panic amongst investors which creates more sales.... this example was seen a couple weeks ago when Mercedes sold over $1 worth of TSLA and the stock dropped about 4-5% in one day). Historically, insiders such as Gilbert and Deepak pull the trigger and sell very quickly, especially during squeezies. Sell and rebuy before Friday is my tactic, looking for low $36 or a little below that will make my day =) hope that helps.

Insiders CAN'T sell quickly, especially near an earnings release. Their trades have to be planned and specified in advance. Now, it's possible that one of them has a standing sell order at, say, 36.50 after a certain date. Such an order might trigger and drag the stock down. But they can't just decide on Monday to cash out. Of course, non-insider holders certainly can decide that, and could drag the price down.

 

[firstinflite]

Insiders CAN'T sell quickly, especially near an earnings release. Their trades have to be planned and specified in advance. Now, it's possible that one of them has a standing sell order at, say, 36.50 after a certain date. Such an order might trigger and drag the stock down. But they can't just decide on Monday to cash out. Of course, non-insider holders certainly can decide that, and could drag the price down.

Its unlikely that insiders will sell BIG holdings, but certainly 46,000 shares by Kroger Herald was significant enough to bring prices down 4-5% back on the 14th. So if anybody who plans on selling lets say 10,000 or more shares at one time during the next week will certainly bring prices down somewhat. The possibility is there and the market wont learn about it until 1-2 business days later. We'll see what happens, but the last sell was done by Kimbal Musk on the 22nd.

 

[ppl]

Observations
1. Yen getting cheaper will lower a major cost of the car...battery. Yen at 90, was 70 and still headed up. New Japanese gov stated goal is to increase exports by lowering value of yen
2. Oil prices headed up again. Yes, I am aware of projections BUT fracking will not go as far. Remember NIMBY attitude. Who wants contaminated ground water. You can drink bottled water but farming not done with bottled water. Look what people are willing to pay for organic foods. They will not tolerate contaminated crops and meats
3. Inside sellers? Musk sale was prearranged. Living his life style, buying his home creates expenses. The director who left exercised options that were expiring and he left. Don't expect any inside selling 2 weeks before earnings.
4. Small investors returning to market. Will not argue the wisdom just state the observation. As market approaches new high expect more to jump in. That huge component has been missing from market for five years

 

[Johan]

I agree with regards to insider sales, I've been trying to track this (no way to track it in real-time, since it's reported days or even weeks afterwards) and I have to say that it would seem that all the sales by insiders such as Elon Musk, Straubel, Passin, Blankenship, Ahuja are the direct result of options being exercised and then the equivalent number of sales being sold (at the given market price). If you see someone selling when the stock is up it's coincidence IMO. The only exception being Kimbal Musk i believe, who is actually selling stock when he wants to. Look at this screenshot from Yahoo finance, notice that most of the sales are "Automatic sale" and preceded by "Option excercise".

By the way, who is Kroger?

 

[charliestyr]

A daimler exec who recently joined the board I believe.

 

[ppl]

Musk to give Bloomberg interview on Bloomberg tonight at six. Does anyone know whether that can be watched over Internet!
?

 

[Grendal]

A daimler exec who recently joined the board I believe.

New Dailer exec who replaced the old Daimler exec.

We're headed for $38. today!

 

[FredTMC]

New Dailer exec who replaced the old Daimler exec.

We're headed for $38. today!

This couldn't happen to a better company. Go Tesla. Go Elon.

 

[Adm]

Musk to give Bloomberg interview on Bloomberg tonight at six. Does anyone know whether that can be watched over Internet!
?

It reads the CTO, so JB will make an appearance...

 

[Teslawisher]

I'm very curious to get the take of those who last week were predicting today to be down. I know the day is just beginning, but things are movning in quite the opposite direction.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Quote from a Morgan Stanley research note this morning:

We trim our 4Q Model S delivery forecast... We move to 2,300 Model S deliveries from 2,500 previously for 4Q.

They've always been pretty conservative with their model, and pretty much on the mark. This may not be enough of a miss to push the stock down. They're also leaving their price target unchanged at $47.

Overall the research note was very positive, with expectation that reservation momentum is poised to accelerate. I'm just pointing out this one slight negative, to see what people here think about it.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'm confused. Haven't 4200+ VINs been assigned?

 

[Citizen-T]

I'm confused. Haven't 4200+ VINs been assigned?

Not in Q4 (the note discusses Q4 deliveries) and not necessarily delivered.

 

[mitch672]

I am VIN 3245, delivered 1/17, but the car was built in December of 2012

 

[Bardlebee]

Dumb question inbound, where can we find out info of when the Q4 earnings report conference call will be? Is there a specific date lined up? And how can I figure this out myself for the future?