TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

Sorry..OFF TOPIC....But I 'see your Mr. Clean suit and raise the Winnebago suit'. Winnebago driver case shows truth behind frivolous lawsuit claims

That sounds almost like a standard run-of-the-mill Tesla Autopilot accident, except these are not urban legends but mass media legends!

 

[gtrplyr1]

Took my Model3 test drive earlier today and was simply blown away. The car is a dream to drive .... I've been in several model 3s but it's the first time I was behind the wheel. I drove the single motor with extended range battery and it was so much faster than I had anticipated, like I said before I'm not really that interested in 0-60 so I don't even know what the actual number is but that's irrelevant to me ... what I can tell you is it feels like a fantastic sports car and it will throw you back in your seat when you hit it.

The only thing I'm waiting for is white interior to be offered on single motor cars ... it's not yet ... only on dual and performance. Hopefully that will happen by Sept so I can get my order in by year's end to take advantage of the tax credit ... if not, I may just go with black but the white interior is really cool.

Bottom line: This car is just better than any car I've ever driven ... I like it even more than the S or X.

Cheers to the longs.

 

[generalenthu]

We know Fremont was not ready for 5000/month in January. You are forgetting the tent. Musk didn't mention broken Alien Dreadnought until later.

Fremont was always ready for a tent, whenever the battery issue was resolved.

 

[oneday]

FFS MODS. what purpose or value do these posters bring to the community here. I’m out. Good luck to everybody.

Look at his history. They have contributed a lot over the years.

And a little humor every now and then can’t hurt. You could at least bring something to the Bbq. S’mores would be nice...

 

[ZachShahan]

One of our writers who recently bought a Model 3 went on a test drive of the Performance option today. It blew him away. And this is also after he owned a Model S 85D for a year or so. Reflecting on his review, here are 3 takeaways from me:

1) As more in the mainstream media test drive this beast, we're going to see some insane reviews of the car. And Montana Skeptic can't troll all of the reviewers.​

2) From those reviews and from normal people going into stores for test drives, demand is going to go through the roof.​

3) Because the Performance edition is seemingly so much better than the other (already amazing) trims, Tesla should be able to sell a lot of high-margin Model 3s in coming months — which is of course a kind of insurance policy against continued production challenges, or one foot in "production hell" as Elon put it. (Tesla can produce a lot fewer than 5000 Performance Model 3s a week and break even or get into the black.)​

Here's the piece if you want to have a read:

Tesla Model 3 Performance vs. Tesla Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive (#CleanTechnica Review) | CleanTechnica

I'm curious now how long it will take for some bigger auto, tech, and broad news outlets to get behind the wheel of one of these for reviews.

 

[wipster]

@phil0909
may I simply suggest you visit recent Seeking Alpha articles. and read the comments sections.
there you will read fear desperation and such.
apologies if this answered post this answer, but they are desperate puppies

Seeking Alpha articles written by the usual suspects are replete with half truths and outright lies by admitted shorts who are doing everything they can to make the SP go down. Many of the "comments" are also written by people who feel the same and their arguments are normally called out by people who know better. I'll agree there are some folks in the comments section that are believing the crap these ****'' s are shoveling and they are scared, but the biggest problem with SA is that people who do know better have stopped reading the articles when they see who the author is and don't want to waste their time responding to every half truth or outright lie they and their commenters are pedaling.

I honestly could not believe SA allowed this crap to be published until I realized the only reason was because they were making money off it. And for the financial sites like eTrade and others to treat these "stories" as news and represent that yinyangs like Montana Skeptic and Quote the Raven are experts on all things Tesla makes me ill. Nothing they have ever written has come true and yet they have been repeating the same crap for at least 5 years or more, all the while Tesla keeps growing and building ever better autos and batteries.

Sorry for the diatribe, but Seeking Alpha is the worst place to get info on Tesla. Please don't buy into the crap published there.

 

[BozieBeMe2]

Seeking Alpha articles written by the usual suspects are replete with half truths and outright lies by admitted shorts who are doing everything they can to make the SP go down. Many of the "comments" are also written by people who feel the same and their arguments are normally called out by people who know better. I'll agree there are some folks in the comments section that are believing the crap these ****'' s are shoveling and they are scared, but the biggest problem with SA is that people who do know better have stopped reading the articles when they see who the author is and don't want to waste their time responding to every half truth or outright lie they and their commenters are pedaling.

I honestly could not believe SA allowed this crap to be published until I realized the only reason was because they were making money off it. And for the financial sites like eTrade and others to treat these "stories" as news and represent that yinyangs like Montana Skeptic and Quote the Raven are experts on all things Tesla makes me ill. Nothing they have ever written has come true and yet they have been repeating the same crap for at least 5 years or more, all the while Tesla keeps growing and building ever better autos and batteries.

Sorry for the diatribe, but Seeking Alpha is the worst place to get info on Tesla. Please don't buy into the crap published there.

I agree wholeheartedly. I stopped reading their articles over a year ago due to such biased articles.

 

[wipster]

Took my Model3 test drive earlier today and was simply blown away. The car is a dream to drive .... I've been in several model 3s but it's the first time I was behind the wheel. I drove the single motor with extended range battery and it was so much faster than I had anticipated, like I said before I'm not really that interested in 0-60 so I don't even know what the actual number is but that's irrelevant to me ... what I can tell you is it feels like a fantastic sports car and it will throw you back in your seat when you hit it.

The only thing I'm waiting for is white interior to be offered on single motor cars ... it's not yet ... only on dual and performance. Hopefully that will happen by Sept so I can get my order in by year's end to take advantage of the tax credit ... if not, I may just go with black but the white interior is really cool.

Bottom line: This car is just better than any car I've ever driven ... I like it even more than the S or X.

Cheers to the longs.

Thanks for keeping us posted my friend!

 

[30seconds]

Going into earnings the press is pretty negative despite the model 3 production issues being resolved, glowing reviews, increasing demand and company guidance to being cash flow positive and profitable in Q3 & 4.

If that’s what actually happens it will be game over for th me shorts.

However Q2 will not be profitable & unlikely to be cash flow positive. When this happens I except a whole new round of the press to harp on the money losing aspect & financial risk. Even though it should be clear that this risk has already been resolved via the ramp.

But the noise will be loud because of the fear

 

[ZachShahan]

Going into earnings the press is pretty negative despite the model 3 production issues being resolved, glowing reviews, increasing demand and company guidance to being cash flow positive and profitable in Q3 & 4.

If that’s what actually happens it will be game over for th me shorts.

However Q2 will not be profitable & unlikely to be cash flow positive. When this happens I except a whole new round of the press to harp on the money losing aspect & financial risk. Even though it should be clear that this risk has already been resolved via the ramp.

But the noise will be loud because of the fear

Yes, should be fun.

 

[phil0909]

You must come from fantasy land because contracts are renegotiated all the time, especially if one party failed to deliver as promised.

If one party fails to deliver, the contract (or applicable law) provides for appropriate remedies. Renegotiation is generally not needed in such cases.

You are of course correct that contracts can be renegotiated at any time, with mutual agreement by the parties. But this is no more true of "CapEx" contracts than any other contracts.

 

[schonelucht]

The question Elon Musk is responding to is about Q3 guidance; therefore, the timeframe he is referring to is Q3. When he says “it’s producing” it isn’t referring to the moment he’s speaking— it’s referring to Q3 as a whole.

To boil it down further: the analyst is asking why Tesla was guiding for such weak margins in Q3. Elon is answering that they anticipate such weak margins because they anticipate only producing hundreds per week (they were guiding for 2500 total for the quarter).

Yes, that’s exactly what I said????? Why’d you feel to disagree and reply is beyond me.

 

[Tslynk67]

You must come from fantasy land because contracts are renegotiated all the time, especially if one party failed to deliver as promised.

A decent contract always contains penalty-clauses and force majeure...

 

[Tslynk67]

Electrek is reporting the delivery timings for new orders slipping: Tesla is pushing back Model 3 delivery windows on new orders

Given the ramp of production, there's only one rational explanation for this, which is a deluge of orders - either converted reservations of totally new, can't say, but I see no other reasonable possibility.

 

[gora321]

Some good news:

Trump suggests cutting all tariffs ahead of key meeting with EU

 

[Tslynk67]

Some good news:

Trump suggests cutting all tariffs ahead of key meeting with EU

This seems to be the negotiating technique, threaten to nuke, then become best-friends? Crazy times...

 

[Matias]

Unfortunately, I'm with you on all of this...until the last line. Jury is still out long term, but short term (next year or so) I see nothing changing the media response to Tesla and the market's response them. Totally bummed.

Dan

Financial market doesn’t leave money on the table. If Tesla makes suistainable profit and still grows exponentially , market will discount it to the share price even if Elon would be sacrificing new born unicorns.

Money talks, bullsh*t walks.

 

[Matias]

ChrisA, I'm deeply thankful for your reply.
I had to look up the definition of operating margin and googled up tesla's history to see how it might correlate with SP movement - Tesla operating margin 2009-2018.

In 2013 there was sharp OM improvement and the stock went 40-180, but the next doubling came without any significant OM improvement?

OK, you may look at OM as the next goal that when reached will cause the stock to explode, I will try to hold my horses of anticipation. I do not believe WS in general is on Tesla's side any more. That does not mean all those big investors are not in TSLA to make money, I just do not believe they are strong enough to fight over all the sheet that is and will be coming TSLA way.

I will laugh all the way to the bank and into financial retirement if the reality proves me wrong.
Though I've seen enough to stop being optimistic about it.

Wall Street isn’t on anybody’s side or against anyone. It is only about money. You’re grossly mistaken, if you think investors are buying stocks because they are on company’s side or short selling if they are against the company. Only thing investors are for is money.

 

[Matias]

TSL, I’d rather burn money on the most interesting speculative public company in my lifetime than spend it on hookers and cocaine. Compared to bets I had in the 90’s, like INTC, TSLA is 100x the entertainment value. Who doesn’t like Insane Mode and the weird Easter Eggs? It’s hugely fun to own shares in a company that delivers. interesting product. This is like if I lived in Wisconsin and owned stock in the Green Bay Packers.

I didn't consider that option, now I may have reconsider my TSLA investment.

There is always opportunity cost with every investment

 

[davecolene0606]

Wall Street isn’t on anybody’s side or against anyone. It is only about money. You’re grossly mistaken, if you think investors are buying stocks because they are on company’s side or short selling if they are against the company. Only thing investors are for is money.

Having read many of your prior posts, I know you are at a much higher level of sophistication to think that entities shorting TSLA are motivated by the financial transaction results alone. Of course, profit is a factor, but in the case of a group of the entities shorting TSLA, that profit is from killing a threat to an existing cash cow as opposed to gains from the success of transitioning to a sustainable transportation and energy paradigm.

One is productive and one is short (see what I did there)lived and parasitic.

Fire Away!