TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

I assume you are aware that it is in the eye of the beholder, what is FUD and what isn't? For a bear doubting Teslas abilities regarding autonomous driving, Adam Jonas assigning $80 a share for a never officially announced and only rumored "Tesla mobility" is as FUD as it gets.

For what it's worth, as a bull, I denounced *that* nonsense early.

Jonas is ridiculously useless: at the same time as he did that, he valued tha actually-existing Tesla Energy business, with its years-long backlogs, at $0, which is ridiculous bearishness. When he makes insane, obvious errors in BOTH directions, it means he has no predictive power at all.

This raises the question of why Jonas is employed by a financial firm, since it clearly isn't for his financial analysis skills. And now we get into the conspiratorial part of this: there's some evidence that this sort of bogus "analyst" is employed to manipulate the stock price in the opposite direction from the direction the insititution is trading, so that the trading desks on the other side of the very porous "Chinese Wall" can get better prices for their trades.

 

[YasB]

A 37% move on the downside seems exceedingly unlikely based on technicals, sentiment, and fundamentals -- but you never know with the market. I will say if this happened I would be doubling my TSLA investment by selling everything else I owned, because a price in the $180s is extraordinarily attractive. I don't believe for a second that this will happen, since there's enough buying interest at prices like THAT.

Hell, if that happens, even i would consider to go long for a while.

 

[neroden]

I've also seen that line quite often, but from my experience that's really a minority position. Most bears i've spoken with, go with the corporate level lack of profitability and are simply assuming way slower growth, competition and a lot of future problems while Tesla is scaling up. That said, the group of people going with the Tesla-is-a-fraud meme seems to have grown quite a bit during the last months. I find that a bit troublesome, even as a bear.

OK, so you agree with us. The really problematic part is how those dishonest liars spreading disinformation about Tesla manage to *push their disinformation to the top of Google search results and Yahoo news feeds* and the like.

This has led to more reasonable people, bears and even bulls, believing some of the outright lies that they've been peddling -- the fire nonsense, the paint shop limits nonsense, and false claims about debt maturing in the near term are three lies I've heard repeated by *otherwise reasonable people*, some of whom were *bullish*. The disinformation campaign is quite effectively planting false ideas in people's heads. I think this is affecting both "sane" bears and bulls who don't do their research.

 

[Tslynk67]

When Elon said there was a short burn coming, I looked back at his "Tsunami of Hurt" comment. That "tsunami of hurt" happened eventually, but it didn't happen for *six months*. Six months after Elon's "short burn" comment would be sometime in *December*. No more need be said.

Indeed. In fact you could see his “starting in 3 weeks” comment as the initiation of the burn. In this case being hitting the 5000 M3 goal - after which the shorts doubled-down. They had to create a negative impression that this wasn’t good enough, but dare not cover these positions because now there is actually sustained production, fabulous reviews, lots of happy new Tesla owners and, I bet, more orders/reservations than before.

So they’re just sitting on it, waiting for... who knows... but at the very latest, two profitable quarters will likely destroy them.

If I were a retail short I’d be getting out today - what do they think is going to happen from here? Tesla aren’t going bankwupt, quite the opposite is about to happen.

Tesla could, for instance, not invest anything new for a couple of years. Pay-off their debt and have enough cash on hand to build GF3 without any capital raise. I realise this isn’t likely, but it demonstrates that most shorts have it totally wrong.

 

[neroden]

All of this is to say, I'm leaning towards your forecast. I will probably trim some calls before close tomorrow, depending upon how the day goes. I'd love to hear the opposing viewpoint, that TSLA is likely to climb after the ER. Who wants to tackle that?

I'll take it. I initially agreed that TSLA would drop after the ER and I still think that's got 50% likelihood. But here's the other possibility.

Suppose that nearly all the TSLA bulls are wise analysts like us and expect the Q2 ER to look awful, so we *expect* the stock to drop after it. We're just waiting until right after the ER to start buying stock. Lots and lots of stock. Huge purchases. What does that cause the stock to do after ER?

Which scenario happens is dependent basically on what percentage of bulls are expecting a drop after ER. If it's a small percentage of bulls, then it makes no difference, and we still see a drop after ER. If it's nearly all bulls, then we probably will see a *rise* after ER -- it'll be a self-defeating prophecy.

 

[HG Wells]

HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

Tesla ranks dead last.

Tesla Ranks Last Place In Auto Dealership Index

 

[neroden]

I am curious if Shorts are gathering ammo for after ER by barrowing shares and not dumping until after the ER. Is that Possible?

It is possible. There is such a thing as pre-borrowing.

Also if my investment firm called me to let me know they are planning on a potential 30% move after ER then I would expect they are either getting ready to loan out a very large amount of shares to shorts to help facilitate the drop or they are planning on calling back shorted shares. They may not know themselves which way until after the CC.

Solid conspiracy theorizing there... I like it. I still don't see a 30% downward move being plausible, since even YasB would consider going long at that point!

 

[YasB]

OK, so you agree with us. [...]

This has led to more reasonable people, bears and even bulls, believing some of the outright lies that they've been peddling -- the fire nonsense, the paint shop limits nonsense, and false claims about debt maturing in the near term are three lies I've heard repeated by *otherwise reasonable people*, some of whom were *bullish*. The disinformation campaign is quite effectively planting false ideas in people's heads. I think this is affecting both "sane" bears and bulls who don't do their research.

I agree with a lot of it. The underlined part is, where i'm out immediatly until someone is presenting good evidence. I'm not saying such campaings never happen, but i'm under the impression that unfavorable results are attributed to such campaigns way to often. I'm a big fan of Hanlon's razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

 

[neroden]

My gut says tomorrow is going to be brutal. Would not want to be holding options or using margin.

I agree with you though I would caveat that there are options and then there are options. I only hold options I can afford to execute / have executed. I wouldn't want to hold any options *more leveraged than that*. Also, my nearest expiration date is next January.

 

[neroden]

I agree with a lot of it. The underlined part is, where i'm out immediatly until someone is presenting good evidence. I'm not saying such campaings never happen, but i'm under the impression that unfavorable results are attributed to such campaigns way to often. I'm a big fan of Hanlon's razor:

Yeah, I'm a big fan of it too. But this is a disinformation campaign and it's been explained previous what the evidence for that is. The most problematic spreaders of disinformation, such as "Montana Skeptic"/Larry Fossi, *refused to make corrections* when their factual claims were proven wrong, and *tried to ban* the commenters who corrected them. (Oh, plus the concealed identity and the hidden oil investments.) That's malice, even if it's malice plus idiocy. The UAW-associated campaign which claimed there was no yellow caution tape at the factory was blatantly invented out of the whole cloth -- that's malice.

 

[mongo]

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

", but don't rule out malice."
-Heinlein's Razor

 

[DragonWatch]

OK, so you agree with us. The really problematic part is how those dishonest liars spreading disinformation about Tesla manage to *push their disinformation to the top of Google search results and Yahoo news feeds* and the like.

This has led to more reasonable people, bears and even bulls, believing some of the outright lies that they've been peddling -- the fire nonsense, the paint shop limits nonsense, and false claims about debt maturing in the near term are three lies I've heard repeated by *otherwise reasonable people*, some of whom were *bullish*. The disinformation campaign is quite effectively planting false ideas in people's heads. I think this is affecting both "sane" bears and bulls who don't do their research.

Since I react like a bull in a china shop, I am hibernating ~ keeping my mouth shut, and wishing I had cash to buy more shares.

Looking green in early morning hours ~ oops, there goes that bull in me again, put your china away

 

[YasB]

Yeah, I'm a big fan of it too. But this is a disinformation campaign and it's been explained previous what the evidence for that is. The most problematic spreaders of disinformation, such as "Montana Skeptic"/Larry Fossi, *refused to make corrections* when their factual claims were proven wrong, and *tried to ban* the commenters who corrected them. (Oh, plus the concealed identity and the hidden oil investments.) That's malice, even if it's malice plus idiocy. The UAW-associated campaign which claimed there was no yellow caution tape at the factory was blatantly invented out of the whole cloth -- that's malice.

As i said before, i'd like to see more evidence. How much does the company Mr. Fossi works for hold in oil investments? I know they own *some*, but what does that prove? Percentagewise, is it more than what Ross Gerber or your average index fund is holding? How much renewables are they holding at the same time, if any? I've invested a bit time before to find out, what's behind that Rupert Murdoch Story, because since he's owning stakes in an oil company he's infuencing reporting of his media outlets and so on ... there was nothing. I may believe there is more behind Mr. Fossis published opinion, once i see such evidence.*

Regarding that UAW story, i also remember it differently. Imho, they never said there is no yellow tape in the factory. They said something like 'there is not enough to adhere to what the regulations would dictate' ... which immediatly makes it another story. Did that get twisted by people on social media? Well, of course. The 'Mr. Musk doesn't like yellow' reasoning that was given, was complete bullshit. If something was lacking, i'd probably attribute it to constantly moving equipment around, rearranging parts of the production lines and being a bit behind with the tape on it.

Anyway, i'm out for a while. Got to get some beer, crisps and painkillers to prepare for the conference call.

* Sidenote: It's probably not worth to invest the time to gather such evidence to convince me. I'm unimportant and may not even accept what you dig up. I'm currently fine with: I don't have to take a final stance on this topic.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, I'm a big fan of it too. But this is a disinformation campaign and it's been explained previous what the evidence for that is. The most problematic spreaders of disinformation, such as "Montana Skeptic"/Larry Fossi, *refused to make corrections* when their factual claims were proven wrong, and *tried to ban* the commenters who corrected them. (Oh, plus the concealed identity and the hidden oil investments.) That's malice, even if it's malice plus idiocy. The UAW-associated campaign which claimed there was no yellow caution tape at the factory was blatantly invented out of the whole cloth -- that's malice.

Really? Huh, didn't realize I was the only one who had comments blocked on SA when posting (politely written) comments critical of Fossi's story (specifically, I was merely asking why it had changed twice, from "Just leaving to focus more on my investments" to "Elon called my boss" to "Elon sent an email to my boss and a coworker called him". Also, whether he actually had any evidence of "threats" to his boss). I found it rather ironic, in an article focusing on "censorship of criticism", that my questions (which weren't even criticism) were censored.

BTW, at what time are the Q2 update letter / investor call? I assume 2:30 PM PDT for the call? So... 2:00 for the update letter?

 

[kelly]

As i said before, i'd like to see more evidence. How much does the company Mr. Fossi works for hold in oil investments? I know they own *some*, but what does that prove? Percentagewise, is it more than what Ross Gerber or your average index fund is holding? How much renewables are they holding at the same time, if any? I've invested a bit time before to find out, what's behind that Rupert Murdoch Story, because since he's owning stakes in an oil company he's infuencing reporting of his media outlets and so on ... there was nothing. I may believe there is more behind Mr. Fossis published opinion, once i see such evidence.*

Regarding that UAW story, i also remember it differently. Imho, they never said there is no yellow tape in the factory. They said something like 'there is not enough to adhere to what the regulations would dictate' ... which immediatly makes it another story. Did that get twisted by people on social media? Well, of course. The 'Mr. Musk doesn't like yellow' reasoning that was given, was complete bullshit. If something was lacking, i'd probably attribute it to constantly moving equipment around, rearranging parts of the production lines and being a bit behind with the tape on it.

Anyway, i'm out for a while. Got to get some beer, crisps and painkillers to prepare for the conference call.

* Sidenote: It's probably not worth to invest the time to gather such evidence to convince me. I'm unimportant and may not even accept what you dig up. I'm currently fine with: I don't have to take a final stance on this topic.

Here is a quote from the Reveal story:
There’s one color, though, that some of Tesla’s former safety experts wanted to see more of: yellow – the traditional hue of caution used to mark hazards.

Concerned about bone-crunching collisions and the lack of clearly marked pedestrian lanes at the Fremont, California, plant, the general assembly line’s then-lead safety professional went to her boss, who she said told her, “Elon does not like the color yellow.”

 

[Remus]

When Elon said there was a short burn coming, I looked back at his "Tsunami of Hurt" comment. That "tsunami of hurt" happened eventually, but it didn't happen for *six months*. Six months after Elon's "short burn" comment would be sometime in *December*. No more need be said.

So it's on elon time! Wonder whether the profitable quarter is also...

 

[HG Wells]

Concerned about bone-crunching collisions and the lack of clearly marked pedestrian lanes at the Fremont, California, plant, the general assembly line’s then-lead safety professional went to her boss, who she said told her, “Elon does not like the color yellow.”

Then let's call it Canary.

 

[jhm]

that seems like or could diffidently be fake news lol some complete anonymous person says something i wouldn't trust the article

Perhaps less credible, but do you think any of the content is misleading? The basic idea that Tesla would use local capital to fund GF3 seems in line with expectations that Tesla would not raise capital from Wall Street.

 

[mickificki]

 

[gora321]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

If VIN announcement is going to be daily routine then all speculations about production will be stopped.