TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

 

[Boomer19]

gameday gamesmanship

 

[madodel]

Btw, I wish there was a forum like this to discuss AAPL away from the usual FUD and trolls.

I wish there was a forum where we could discuss TSLA without the usual FUD and trolls.

 

[mutle]

I wish there was a forum where we could discuss TSLA without the usual FUD and trolls.

Compared to any Apple forum I've seen this is heaven.

 

[neroden]

So it's on elon time! Wonder whether the profitable quarter is also...

Heh. IIRC, years ago Tesla was hoping for profits in Q1 this year (back before they discovered the battery module problem, went into production hell, etc...)

The profit is basically dependent on the volume of car production, and always has been.

 

[BornToFly]

I think we finish the week over 320. I believe it was the "analyst" for USB that said Tesla will have less than 1 Billion in cash. I think they ended the quarter with over 2.2 Billion. I predict that the letter says they are already cash flow positive this quarter, with over 22,000 Model 3 sales in July. They will remind everyone that Model 3 sales completely destroys the numbers from BMW, Mercedes, and Audi. Reservations at all time high. Current steady state production at over 5,000/weeks (maybe 5,500). I think Elon's short burn starts at 4:00pm Eastern....

 

[neroden]

Perhaps less credible, but do you think any of the content is misleading? The basic idea that Tesla would use local capital to fund GF3 seems in line with expectations that Tesla would not raise capital from Wall Street.

I think a private placement funding round in China, or some more convoluted equivalent, seems quite plausible.

 

[neroden]

I think we finish the week over 320. I believe it was the "analyst" for USB that said Tesla will have less than 1 Billion in cash. I think they ended the quarter with over 2.2 Billion. I predict that the letter says they are already cash flow positive this quarter, with over 22,000 Model 3 sales in July. They will remind everyone that Model 3 sales completely destroys the numbers from BMW, Mercedes, and Audi. Reservations at all time high. Current steady state production at over 5,000/weeks (maybe 5,500). I think Elon's short burn starts at 4:00pm Eastern....

I think you're too optimistic -- I am going with luvb2b's estimate, 1.9 billion in cash. I'm also going to predict that steady state production is currently around 4500/week (and rising).

 

[madodel]

Compared to any Apple forum I've seen this is heaven.

For sure, about the only thing dumber and more crooked than a Tesla troll is an Apple troll. I've been laughing at them for over 20 years. Especially at this point, it is just lunacy to attack Apple. 20-25 years ago they had a chance to actually kill Apple, but couldn't because Apple's products were just too good and their user base too obsessed. In both cases they lie and misinform for an agenda to destroy a company to benefit some truly sugarhole competitor(s) that don't deserve to even be in the same realm. With the Model 3 Tesla is now relatively safe and they will sell every one they can make. But the lying trolls will keep on making up insane conspiracies to explain why reality isn't real. Next up they will start claiming EM is dying.

 

[NicoV]

I think you're too optimistic -- I am going with luvb2b's estimate, 1.9 billion in cash. I'm also going to predict that steady state production is currently around 4500/week (and rising).

Elon needs to say only one thing: ‘as of date x, we reached the cash flow break even point’ meaning that Tesla’s cash position will go up from day x (I’m defining cash flow here as change in cash position). I hope date x was sometime in july, not sometime in september.

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon needs to say only one thing: ‘as of date x, we reached the cash flow break even point’ meaning that Tesla’s cash position will go up from day x (I’m defining cash flow here as change in cash position). I hope date x was sometime in july, not sometime in september.

This , it's all about this.

Of course those 11000 (wasn't it) M3's they parked-up to stop the 200k limit being reached will add to the revenue.

 

[ggr]

BTW, at what time are the Q2 update letter / investor call? I assume 2:30 PM PDT for the call? So... 2:00 for the update letter?

The letter itself comes out soon after market close, often at about 16:05-16:15 US eastern time. No specific time, just when it appears at ir.tesla.com.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This , it's all about this.

Of course those 11000 (wasn't it) M3's they parked-up to stop the 200k limit being reached will add to the revenue.

You and I both know the attacks won't stop with this, or any other announcement. The FUD brigade will simply make up/rewrite/misinterpret/attempt to negate any positive news. So...we just keep on keeping on. Doing our thing. Buying our cars. Loving our cars. Living the Tesla life.

Can't wait!

Dan

 

[HG Wells]

That was a nice SHORT morning dip.

 

[scaesare]

Yes there are a lot of strange people on twitter. That's simply the case, but it applies to both sides and is the reason i've avoided to engage in discussions there. It's not a format to have a discussion in. Judging from his tweets only, i was pretty sure Ross Gerber is an idiot. That was, until i got the chance to listen to him, when he had more time to explain his views on a QTR podcast. I still think he's wrong on Tesla, but that idiot thing has gone away. In the end, i may only have a problem, with the assumption that examples as the one you mentioned result from malice or some evil short cabal. Some of those guys may be idiots, but they are mostly harmless.

Many of those strange folks, or their devotees, seem to make their way to online forums as well.

I'm cool with discussion of legit bearish points of view. My response to was to your question of "why can't they genuinely believe what their saying?"... it boils down to eventually folks outrun the benefit of doubt when they continue to assert the earth is flat while muting folks showing them evidence demonstrating otherwise.

Of course not bear falls in to that category... but certainly some do.

 

[Tslynk67]

Market's look cautiously optimistic to me. No doubt AAPL has helped.

Maybe a few wise shorts getting out while they can.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agreed. In addition, I wonder if Tesla is not kind of squeezing the subsystem market by taking a lot of production in-house: seats, glass (?), maybe even chips and perhaps other parts? Not to forget Grohmann purchase, which starved the German producers of a reliable vendor.

Whether, how and when all that impacts share price is a different kettle of fish, of course.

I agree with squeezing the subsystems too but not just in terms of in-house production and buying companies outright, but also pushing suppliers to the same Tesla culture. Constant iteration of parts (no reason to think that just happens within Tesla factory walls), pushing supplier’s ability to ramp their own production, pushing LG and the few other battery suppliers. Those that can’t like the Falcon Wing door mech company, or the seat company get stroked off the list and get a glimpse of their future.

Never mind the dealership squeeze, the gas station squeeze (arguably still coming but it’s coming), the charging network squeeze, the no advertising squeeze. The list is endless. Big shift happening and picks up speed as it continues.

 

[Drax7]

View attachment 322122

He also won’t be renewing his Netflix and amazon membership

 

[Krugerrand]

A 37% move on the downside seems exceedingly unlikely based on technicals, sentiment, and fundamentals -- but you never know with the market. I will say if this happened I would be doubling my TSLA investment by selling everything else I owned, because a price in the $180s is extraordinarily attractive. I don't believe for a second that this will happen, since there's enough buying interest at prices like THAT.

Yeah, 37%?! Pfft!

Down: logically the stock could drop a bit if the ER is bad-bad (1 order of magnitude worse than the bad expected). But there’s been so much bankrupt talk - and that talk has been there pretty much since the beginning, so not new. So much general negativity, cancelled reservations, demand not there talk - again, been there, done that. It’s just not anymore true now than then.

Up: the only thing I can come up with that moves the stock up 37% is if Q2 somehow managed to be profitable. How? Not a clue. Could they cut expenses enough to make that happen? Throw in some ZEV on top? Still the market would bend that negative and say the only way Tesla gets to profitability is to stop growing.

I think these in-house experts are not so expert.

 

[Tslynk67]

Here’s today’s actual forecast for Shortsville, how apt!