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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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All along Musk has been very polite, warning the short-sellers to get out with lots of time and advance notice. He's not really the vindictive type.

exactly. he’s competitive, sure. but he’s been upfront.
i still have people telling me daily (smart people too) this is a house of cards and i’m going to lose whatever i have in tsla. MS media have done wonderful artistry in its portrayal over the years to instill this in the passive public. tesla is still a story where you have to dig beneath the surface to find what is really going on. sure musks ambitions are well publicized, but the true story of tesla requires research and following the details. the website doesn’t tell you much...details about innerworkings is sporadic, and requires tons of filtering (especially lately). a passive reader is only going to get the provocative headlines, once in a while dig into such an article and their whole perception is doom and gloom. we know this difference. we may forget from time to time what it appears from the outside.

i was mad at one point with how he’s handling some things. i’ve thought about it a lot. it’s actually been maybe the only, or best, way to play some of this stuff. we don’t know the level of urgency inside the house on some of these developments.
we’re so used to “well that’s just how things work” that when unorthodox methods are applied to every facet of the situations surrounding this company...perhaps the beauty won’t be recognized until the chapter is completed.
 
Could use some expert advice here.

I'll be the first to admit it. This has been a learning experience for me. I put in money I could lose, so I'm not too disappointed. I've still made a profit overall.

Bought call options on 7/31 as I anticipated great results compared to short-short analyst expectations. Sold them when stock hit ~$365 and bought more call options (8/31 $365 and 8/31 $400). Those are down now, and I see the timeline for any private move or bigger pop being Q3 or Q4. Anyone think I should keep them, or should I sell? Looking to roll anything into actual shares now.

Questions:
  1. Should I sell now? Would take loss of $2.34 per option on 4x $400s and $13.50 loss on 1x $365 option. So $2,950 loss but I made $2,700 on first set.
  2. Should I wait until 12-2 pm? Seems like it drops every day from pre-market until noon, then pops a bit until early afternoon.
  3. What's the next price level below $350? Want to buy on the next low.
Not gonna hold anyone to anything. Just trying to minimize loss and go in long on stock for now. Glad I didn't put more as I was saving for our 3 (8/24 pick up!)
 
This seems like a good time to just flat out ignore the stock. Way too many baseless rumors pushing everything around.

Agreed, for the first time since Feb 2016 I think I'm just going to switch-off for a bit. It's depressing what's happening now.

I daren't even trade because who's to say we don't get some sudden news that will plunge the stock up or down unexpectedly, or for the shorts to all bailout quickly and not be able to buy back in again.

So I have my GTC orders, in case of a squeeze (looks very very very unlikely to me) and then I'll see if I can stay in or will be forced to sell.

Don't like this at all, as said yesterday, Tesla was doing just fine without this extra drama.
 
Agreed, for the first time since Feb 2016 I think I'm just going to switch-off for a bit. It's depressing what's happening now.

I daren't even trade because who's to say we don't get some sudden news that will plunge the stock up or down unexpectedly, or for the shorts to all bailout quickly and not be able to buy back in again.

So I have my GTC orders, in case of a squeeze (looks very very very unlikely to me) and then I'll see if I can stay in or will be forced to sell.

Don't like this at all, as said yesterday, Tesla was doing just fine without this extra drama.


Broader market is down, plus the FUD is at a all time high mid quarter as per. I've no doubt this will be reversed quickly on more details.
 
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Agreed, for the first time since Feb 2016 I think I'm just going to switch-off for a bit. It's depressing what's happening now.

I daren't even trade because who's to say we don't get some sudden news that will plunge the stock up or down unexpectedly, or for the shorts to all bailout quickly and not be able to buy back in again.

So I have my GTC orders, in case of a squeeze (looks very very very unlikely to me) and then I'll see if I can stay in or will be forced to sell.

Don't like this at all, as said yesterday, Tesla was doing just fine without this extra drama.
I certainly feel your pain. Right there with you. Go test drive a Model 3...you'll feel A LOT better, I promise.

Dan
 
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So this claim is supposedly from Reuters but this claim isn't in the Reuters article? That's disinformation of the most obvious sort...

Reuters was claiming that their "source" said that the Saudis were definitely not interested, so they have a clearly-bad source anyway...

Most of the media seems to “narrative quote shop,” so to speak.


Looks like,

1) they are tasked with a narrative to sell to the public

2) they seek out a person whose work in a particular field would lend seeming credibility to that person commenting in support of the tasked narrative (“analyst,” “banker,” “attorney,” “former regulator at,” “Professor of X at (“prestigious”) Y School of Z,...)

3) if step 2 is not readily available, step down to an anonymous source(s) from a step 2 field, (speculative step 3b, fabricate a step 3)

4) if step 3 is not readily available, make a general broad but emphatic reference to step 2 field members (“when I speak to -analysts, consumers, legal experts, other CEOs,...- all I hear is...”),

5) use cherry picked social media comments to give the impression of support of the narrative with the bonus that aggressive characterizations the media outlet could be held legally accountable for saying directly can be read on air as a quote from social media (let’s see what bulls and bears are saying on twitter... read one ineffective bull tweet, and three agressive bear tweets, “judging by the reactions on social media, looks like this latest news from Tesla is not being well received to say the least,”),

6) present an interpretation of a market pricing move as support of the tasked narrative (“look at the movement of TSLA, Tesla bonds, those newly issued credit default swaps,... on news of this latest setback, controversy,...).


This, of course, is not a phenomenon unique to Tesla.
 
It's amazing how much just plain made up stuff and conjecture is out there right now (even from the NYT the last two days)

It's amazing how many people are writing about Tesla and don't own one and are thus missing a huge piece of the puzzle (what the product actually is like)

It's amazing the disconnect between the news (Elon is tweeting! Tesla in chaos!) and the reality (M3s are popping out, everyone that drives a Tesla wants one, have had two for two years and never going back, supercharger network is locking people in)

And the most amazing - people are actually trading on information this "we really have no idea what is going on but we'll write something anyway to get clicks" news.

I had a friend sell at 300 declaring - I've read the news, it's over!

Then Q2 results came out.

And today, things are going down, why? Because all you see out there right now is Elon Tweeting! Tesla Chaos!

When the reality is: Elon and Tesla all feel confident enough to explore other options than this crazy public market fueled by the click bait free for all the media has become because of the open internet.

They feel confident. They want to take their ball and go home. Money is definitely out there to make this happen.

But you'll never see that story.
 
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