TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jw934]

With Dow -1.28%, SP500 -1.28% , NASDAQ -1.7%, I think that is the key reason TSLA is down -3.89% at the moment at$333.74

 

[anthonyj]

This is ridiculous. When will we get proof that funding is secured? I can’t believe I threw 100k in this last week

 

[Joe F]

Down probably because algo's picked up on this which just popped up:
Aug 15(Reuters) -

* SEC RAMPS UP INVESTIGATION INTO TESLA PRIVATIZATION PLANS; SENDS SUBPOENAS TO TESLA REGARDING PRIVATIZATION PLANS- FOX BUSINESS' GASPARINO

EDIT: algo's mis-autocorrect fixed.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Most of the media seems to “narrative quote shop,” so to speak.


Looks like,

1) they are tasked with a narrative to sell to the public

2) they seek out a person whose work in a particular field would lend seeming credibility to that person commenting in support of the tasked narrative (“analyst,” “banker,” “attorney,” “former regulator at,” “Professor of X at (“prestigious”) Y School of Z,...)

3) if step 2 is not readily available, step down to an anonymous source(s) from a step 2 field, (speculative step 3b, fabricate a step 3)

4) if step 3 is not readily available, make a general broad but emphatic reference to step 2 field members (“when I speak to -analysts, consumers, legal experts, other CEOs,...- all I hear is...”),

5) use cherry picked social media comments to give the impression of support of the narrative with the bonus that aggressive characterizations the media outlet could be held legally accountable for saying directly can be read on air as a quote from social media (let’s see what bulls and bears are saying on twitter... read one ineffective bull tweet, and three agressive bear tweets, “judging by the reactions on social media, looks like this latest news from Tesla is not being well received to say the least,”),

6) present an interpretation of a market pricing move as support of the tasked narrative (“look at the movement of TSLA, Tesla bonds, those newly issued credit default swaps,... on news of this latest setback, controversy,...).


This, of course, is not a phenomenon unique to Tesla.

Nailed it!!!

Dan

 

[anticitizen13.7]

NASDAQ Market as a whole is down. I monitor other stocks, some hit harder than TSLA on % basis.

IMO price move is mostly market driven right now.

 

[Driver Dave]

This, of course, is not a phenomenon unique to Tesla.

It's really a problem in general.

I could see more companies trying to set up private markets to avoid the crazy place internet fueled news has become.

 

[KarenRei]

I have a buy set for $339, but I'm thinking about lowering it to $329, given the low short interest at present and the possible price reduction if it rises.

*cough* Glad I listened to my instinct earlier today.

 

[gringotuanis]

Could use some expert advice here.

I'll be the first to admit it. This has been a learning experience for me. I put in money I could lose, so I'm not too disappointed. I've still made a profit overall.

Bought call options on 7/31 as I anticipated great results compared to short-short analyst expectations. Sold them when stock hit ~$365 and bought more call options (8/31 $365 and 8/31 $400). Those are down now, and I see the timeline for any private move or bigger pop being Q3 or Q4. Anyone think I should keep them, or should I sell? Looking to roll anything into actual shares now.

Questions:

1. Should I sell now? Would take loss of $2.34 per option on 4x $400s and $13.50 loss on 1x $365 option. So $2,950 loss but I made $2,700 on first set.
2. Should I wait until 12-2 pm? Seems like it drops every day from pre-market until noon, then pops a bit until early afternoon.
3. What's the next price level below $350? Want to buy on the next low.

Not gonna hold anyone to anything. Just trying to minimize loss and go in long on stock for now. Glad I didn't put more as I was saving for our 3 (8/24 pick up!)

As a fairly novice trader myself who has traded and followed Tesla for several years now I'd say your main concern shouldn't be today (or any day). I do not recommend day trading Tesla, it's way too volatile. You will not be able to predict an up or down day. Your August calls are much too short in my opinion. I think rolling into stock is a good idea, but to time it I'm not sure what to tell you there. All I know is I buy long term call options so I have plenty of time to ride out the downswings and can sell when it's up. I think this and owning shares is much wiser. Or do some options trades that hedge your bets. One month call options with Tesla is nowhere near enough time. You might get lucky a few times but then get burnt. It could well slide downward or be range bound until around Q3. Again, as far as today, your guess is as good as mine. Once we get clarity on the privatization deal and Q3 numbers then it will probably pop back up. But the privatization will take a few months at minimum. Long tsla via stock and options! Not invesment advice.

 

[JRP3]

NASDAQ Market as a whole is down. I monitor other stocks, some hit harder than TSLA on % basis.

IMO price move is mostly market driven right now.

SEC subpoenas Tesla over Musk's tweets: Fox News

 

[Jayjs20]

NASDAQ Market as a whole is down. I monitor other stocks, some hit harder than TSLA on % basis.

IMO price move is mostly market driven right now.

It is what it is.

 

[sub]

A lot of people posting here must be new to TSLA, I can’t explain the freak out any other way. You can’t have amazing returns without the volatility. Maybe some of you need to go back in time on the forums, 2-3 years would suffice, and read all the panic posts when TSLA heads south only to come back and then some in due time.

I think it is crazy trying to trade this, especially limiting your upside. We are one tweet away from a jump. I also don’t get the comfort some people find in “speculation”. Trust in Elon/Tesla or don’t, it’s really that simple. The media knows nothing, you’re letting them mind F you.

I bought another 120 shares after trading was halted for 371-385 range. If I believe in Tesla pre “going private” tweets, why should I worry either way?

As Aaron Rodgers once said, R E L A X.

 

[gringotuanis]

I’ve read all the posts in this thread and in previous years’ threads.

Conclusion: There’s absolutely no consensus on how the stock market works, why the SP is dropping since the announcement, where it will end up when (ok, if) the deal goes through, will the shorts get what they deserve or will they manage to get out relatively unscathed and on, and on.

None.
Zip.
Zero.
Nadda.

Lots of people posting in authoritative AND contradictory ways. Not helpful, at all.

Lol, welcome to Tesla stock.

 

[MikeC]

Another or even two weeks of waiting, (could be another meaningless 8K form in between if SEC presses), proposed price will be current price X 1.2. (420=350x1.2 btw). Most probably "accidentally" 350 will be the pre8K price.

Are you suggesting the buyout price might be lowered if the stock stays below 350?

 

[gringotuanis]

This is ridiculous. When will we get proof that funding is secured? I can’t believe I threw 100k in this last week

Lol if this isn't a joke...you realize going private will take a few months right? This does not happen overnight. Lots of legal hurdles, etc. Gonna take weeks if not months.

 

[KarenRei]

SEC subpoenas Tesla over Musk's tweets: Fox News

If I were any party to a buyout deal, one of the conditions would be that Musk's tweets all have to be filtered through PR rep(s)/lawyer(s) appointed by the board. It can be "quick-turnaround filtering", 24/7, so Musk doesn't feel too hindered, with 99% of the content just pass-through. Even lighthearted trolling ("short shorts", etc). But... seriously, we all know he needs it. He brings these problems on himself.

I think it'd be kind of liberating to him, really, knowing that he can tweet whatever he wants without having to think about the consequences, on the knowledge that if it was a dumb idea, someone will bounce it back to him.

 

[Tslynk67]

If I were any party to a buyout deal, one of the conditions would be that Musk's tweets all have to be filtered through PR rep(s)/lawyer(s) appointed by the board. It can be "quick-turnaround filtering", 24/7, so Musk doesn't feel too hindered, with 99% of the content just pass-through. Even lighthearted trolling ("short shorts", etc). But... seriously, we all know he needs it. He brings these problems on himself.

I think Elon needs a butler, like Batman's Alfred, who takes his devices away once he's had a couple of glasses of chablis...

Edit: Indeed we are tracking NASDAQ @ a -2.5 multiplier...

 

[bdy0627]

I think the thing that some of us are getting familiar with here is that even with a privatization deal in the works, TSLA is still going to go lower than you thought possible in the short term. I admit a few days ago that I thought the old trading patterns might be a thing of the past. Nope. I'm going back to my dip buying strategy.

The current low represents a drop of 14.2% from the local high of $387 on 8/7. I will continue adding in tranches. Best not to over commit at this level of drop.

 

[Moderatefan]

@Cosmacelf which article was that? i must have missed your post.

think i’ve got it
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
nyt one

There's another one
A Tesla Take-Private Bid Would Be More of the Same for Silver Lake. Sort of.

The firm is not being paid for its role; instead, it hopes to participate in whatever deal comes together, something that seems far from certain at this point.

 

[EVNow]

*cough* Glad I listened to my instinct earlier today.

I'm on a wait & watch where it goes mode before buying. I don't think we have seen the bottom yet - with SEC subpoenas etc. and likelihood of leaks from SEC in the future.

It might be a wild ride until funding/price/date are announced.

 

[JRP3]

I just bought back the shares I sold at $365 when the tweet first showed up for $341. Impulse buy

Oops Impulse remorse