Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Most mattresses over 10 years old should be thrown out ......

I have a custom made mattress made entirely out of latex to provide the best possible support. I consider it my best investment.

Weekend O.T.

Aren't latex mattresses supposed to last 25+ years?

BTW I have a DIY mattress. 6" Dunlop 5.5 lbs latex for the base support layer, 4" Aerus 4lbs Memory Foam and 2" Venus 8lbs Memory Foam from Foamex.

I am very happy I did not buy a TempurPedic Grand Bed
 
I pretty much always agree with you but right now, after reading that piece of crap NYT article meant to show Elon is the worse possible light, I want Tesla private yesterday.

This bs has gone on more than long enough. And I want every ‘source in the know’, leaker, mean-spirited short, blogger, journalist etc... to choke on their next chicken bone - which is surprising to me because I avoid putting bad Karma out there like a plague. What they have done to this man and continue to do is inexcusable. It is them you need to blame for shareholder angst, not Elon.

Allow me to explain why I’m so frustrated with the going private move at this moment in time. As a long term shareholder who has gone through mountains of challenges, missteps and gaffes with this company I expect to be rewarded when Tesla excels. We are on the cusp of being cash flow positive, our “Amazon” moment is nearly here, I expected to be paid handsomely but instead, it appears Elon got in front of the “Saudi” news when the stock picked up momentum at $360s, five minutes later he tweets about 420.... Why? Perhaps it was accidental or maybe coincidental.. but I’m willing to bet that Elon was afraid the upside potential was going to cause a spike in stock price that would be out of reach for “insiders” who were going to take this company private. He could have raised capital through the Saudis and built the China factory and alleviate a lot of uncertainties for shareholders when the question of “capital needs and cash burn” were raised, which also caused a lot of headaches for investors during the $245 drop... and just when things started to pick up for shareholders, the reward was within sight, he snatches the prize and announces $420, a cheap, cheap price (especially when put next to his CEO pay package and $600 B valuation of Tesla’s future).

To be completely honest, when I heard the news, the immediate thought was that the $420 offer was too low, pathetically low. I felt like it was a slap in the face, a betrayal... it might be selfish of me to think this way as it hindered my reward, but I think this move also makes Elon appear selfish and the NYT interview only heightens my suspicion.

As a shareholder who loves this company and it’s product, I feel like I have to play along, but deep down inside I also know the feeling of being thrown under the bus, $420 is too. friggin. low for Tesla at this moment.

The Saudis need to raise that price.
 
Well Tesla can take funding from Saudis for expansion and dilute shares which will give Saudis stake in Tesla and funding Tesla Win-win.

That's wrong, the exact opposite is true: taking Tesla private is anti-dilutive, it's a stock repurchase program.

Here is how shares will transfer in the going-private conversion, most likely:
  • There's 170m common shares right now
  • Shorts have diluted 33m shares into existence by shorting the stock, inflating the total to 203m shares
  • Private companies cannot be shorted, so shorts are going to buy out 35m shares, reducing the number of shareholders from 203m to 170m
  • There's an estimated ~60m shares unable to follow Tesla to a private path, which, assuming the buy-out happened today, the going-private consortium of the Saudis, Silver Lake, Elon and other backers will buy out for $420 or higher
  • Those ~60m shares are distributed among members of the going-private consortium, in proportion of their negotiated weight (in proportion of pledged cash looks like a possibility)
  • End effect: the total number of Tesla shares is reduced from 203m to 170m
Not only is there no dilution, there's an anti-dilutive stock repurchase program. Note that technically private-Tesla could even issue up to 33m shares (or whatever the short interest is when they agree to a deal), and still not dilute shareholders.

This is one of the reasons why valuation of private Tesla is at least ~20% higher than public Tesla.
 
Last edited:
That’s a difference of philosophy and belief. In my world, what goes around comes around. I believe that, I’ve seen it and so I respect it. That’s just how I live my life and it has served me well.

Now technically, Karma can come in a bajillion different ways including a vengeful COO. I’m just not that vengeful COO. But I’ll support one who fights the good fight on behalf of Elon/Tesla/The longs etc...

Karma involves consequences but the true test of morality is acting well regardless and without fear or expectation of certain results. I think it was Marcuse who said something about buying life insurance. Those who buy it somehow think they'll be rich after death or somehow will get even despite having to die. It's all about attitude. If I remember Augustine correctly—no, I'm not quite that old—the elect will not know their status until judgment day. Doing good is not moral if it is done for expedient reasons. Often it hurts. That is karma.

The act of doing is its reward. Some choose good, others evil. Most of us here choose lovers not haters, à chacun son goût.
 
Last edited:
  • Those ~60m shares are distributed among members of the going-private consortium, in proportion of their negotiated weight (in proportion of pledged cash looks like a possibility)
@ fact checking can you please explain that one. Thank you

He means that the group of investors who pledge to buy out shareholders, who for whatever reason can't or won't transition their shares to de-listed shares, at $420 or some other fixed price on a pre-agreed date have to decide in advance how they will divide up the buy-out between themselves. For example investor A buys 40%, B 30%, C 20% and D 10%. They can't define a specific amount of money since it's open ended how many shareholders will want out.
 
Elon is letting everyone down by listening to the activists, establishmentarians, Democrats, Communists, and short sellers, who are all the same people, all globalist destructionists. If he knew what was better for Tesla he would have been working with the good people all along, or at least investigated them and seen which way they went and reacted accordingly. Him agreeing with the liars at NYT and with his not-independent "Independent" board member from mob-run Chicago to not say anything is the STUPIDEST thing he's done; he needs to KEEP talking, not shut up and cry like a slave.
Is your real name steve bannon?
 
Yeah. I have no doubt that he's a bit on the autism spectrum and has trouble reading other people's intents and feelings.
I have asperger's. Can relate to this. Elon is on a spectrum that has never been studied o_O seriously it's been a struggle for me but on the bright side i seem to gravitate to companies that are disruptive. Have to know everything about them. Wait that might not be a good thing :eek: as far as sleep is concerned.
 
I'm very surprised it caused such a huge drop. I thought it would be more like where we opened - around 3-4%. I believe the primary negatives for the market from the NYT article are the portrayal of Elon as very unstable, emotionally distraught, out of touch (especially with the Tesla Board), hanging on by a thread, AND the suggestion from Elon that things are going to get worse. The second big negative I think the market took from the article is the strong suggestion that the Tesla Board no longer trusts Elon, has become angry at him, and feels the need to police him. Most of these things did not seem to me to be presented in a fair and balanced fashion, but were rather distorted or exaggerated to some degree. I honestly don't know how the Board feels right now about Elon and his privatization idea. No question to me that the market response was irrational.

My wife, who does not follow stocks or Tesla mentioned me yesterday about this interview (It has made headlines also here in Finland) and asked, if I'm still going to buy Model 3. So that kind of publicity can also affect sales.

I'm still going to buy Model 3 :)
 
Maybe this has been mentioned by now I'm thinking Elon was acting hysterical on purpose. That would sink the stock and keep the offer of 420 look attractive. Genius if that's true.
This is also my theory. Elon is in special forces mode right now, best outcome for company would be going private. Had to know the times would do a hit job. He's taking one for the team/tesla. Credibility will take a hit but if tsla is privatized it's worth it.
 
Paging NYT...

Germany to cancel registration of unfixed dieselgate cars | Team-BHP

“The motor transport authority of Germany has ordered people who have not yet fixed their cars affected by the dieselgate emissions scandal to either fix them or gear up for having their registrations cancelled.”

How’s the health of the German CEOs and it’s board members?
 
I think this move also makes Elon appear selfish and the NYT interview only heightens my suspicion.

I don't think the view that Elon intentionally went to the NYT in full knowledge of getting a hit piece is accurate: he had a similar interview before where he got emotional, which interview turned out fine. A professional journalist will not abuse such moments and take them out of context to create bias.

By giving the NYT an interview he indeed entered hostile territory, but I think he misjudged David Gelles who is the main author of the article, a journalist who hasn't written a biased Tesla piece before. Look at the track record of David Gelles:

David Gelles

His last article that even mentioned Tesla was a year ago, and had a passing reference to Tesla that was positive:

Complex Car Software Becomes the Weak Spot Under the Hood

'Tesla has hired a new security chief from Google, who previously oversaw security for the Chrome web browser. And in early August, the company began offering $10,000 to outsiders who find security problems. (It had been giving $1,000.) “We are hiring!” the automaker wrote on a whiteboard at Def Con, a premier computer hackers’ conference in Las Vegas, in announcing the prize.'

'At the same conference, Tesla’s chief technology officer awarded the company’s commemorative “challenge coins” to two computer researchers. The researchers had revealed how to plug into the Tesla S computer system, unlock the sedan and stop the car under certain conditions — vulnerabilities that the company says are now patched.'​

So I think Elon went to the NYT in the hope of getting an interview like the Wired one - and hoped that by giving an exclusive interview he'd get a better piece than the Wired one. He also picked a journalist who seemed neutral and professional, who worked for the FT before, and who has written factually positive comments about Tesla in his last article that criticised other carmakers.

He was wrong: the negative emotions and honesty was used against him - and from the wording I suspect some of the quotes were actually Elon jokes taken out of context.

it appears Elon got in front of the “Saudi” news when the stock picked up momentum at $360s, five minutes later he tweets about 420.... Why? Perhaps it was accidental or maybe coincidental..

I too think the tweet was an intentional reaction to the Saudi news.

But note what the Saudi news was about: it was about the Saudis acquiring 3-5% of Tesla despite Elon refusing them twice. The Saudis have the cash to make an instant hostile buyout bid for Tesla - I suspect the only reason they haven't done that when the price was $250 is because they know that Elon is key to Tesla.

In that context the $420 tweet caused a further spike in the price, effectively locking the Saudis out of acquiring more of Tesla via the open market without a heavy mark-up. I believe that was Elon's intention with the $420 tweet: to inform and to rally other investors to counter-balance the Saudis.

In that sense the NYT article had the opposite effect - which IMO further weakens the notion that this is part of some sort of effort to "manage" the stock price.

BTW., I'm not sure we should attribute yesterday's drop to the NYT article alone, there was also this news item:

Tesla stock slides 9% amid reports that Elon Musk and board will meet with SEC next week

"The upcoming meeting with the SEC will reportedly be focused on how Musk announced and handled the aftermath of his tweet last week, when he stated that funding was “secured” for Tesla’s possible privatization at $420 per share"
Has anyone seen this confirmed independently, or is this just something that crawled up the TSLA-short sewers?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.