TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Johan]

A call for longs:

This is it guys. It’s countdown to take private. Shorts are going all out and assaulting us on every street corner. It’s time to fight back, hit them hard on social media and grind them down, another 5-6 weeks and numbers will be out. Those numbers will speak for themselves, but right now your account could use a little boast, fight back..

Does that mean I would have to create social media accounts? Can't we just wait 5-6 weeks and have the short burn of the century play out? The lower the stock price the more energy is stored in the spring, right? (so longs as short interest stays high).

With regard to "hitting them hard" on social media, makes me think of a Jay-Z lyric: "A wise man once told me; don't argue with a fool, 'cause from a distance people can't tell who's who".

 

[MartinAustin]

I would have dived into it taking one for the team here.

The movie of you saving him would be called "In The Line Of Tire"

I think it's pretty safe to say that NYT mischaracterised Elon Musk, who was interviewed on camera at length the same day by someone else, who then published the video pretty much unedited. Compare with the NYT, who haven't released the interview, but have transcribed several quotes, and combined those quotes with a bunch of anonymous, unverified rumor/claims and created a Frankenstein article that is perfect bear fodder.

Nice to see TSLA coming back to $308 today. There are just too many people willing to get in at these levels. I myself am transferring some former bitcoin money over to my Fidelity account so I can grab some more TSLA before it starts climbing further.

 

[ggies07]

All the FUD being precisely increased in frequency when Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker, Model 3 NTHSA VIN registration and Troy’s spreadsheet seem to indicate a robust ramp tells me shorts are desperately trying their best to suppress SP before Q3 data comes out. In just 2 weeks Inside EV numbers will show Model 3 obliterating all mid size luxury sales out of the water and there won’t be anything shorts can do about it, except scream a bit louder.

If Kevin O’leary’s numbers are to be believed, shorts are leveraged 300% at these levels (plus interest) and will soon face massive losses in which they’ll need to answer to their own investors (I lost your money because Tesla...). The end game is near, the bitterness of being harassed since 2013 is coming to an end, soon. This time, we’ll have the last laugh, I’m holding out of bitterness just as much as I am out of pride, love and respect for this company and members on his forum. It’s been 5 years, another 5 weeks is a cake walk. Remeber longs, at this point in time shorts are much more nervous than we are. Their investments and careers are on the line, they are fighting with the thought of their livelihoods flushed down the toilet I’d we are right. They’re fighting with desperation.

Elon is Pan, shorts are Rufio, and we are the lost boys.

 

[KarenRei]

Elon is Pan, shorts are Rufio, and we are the lost boys.

I'm probably Nana :Þ

 

[shlokavica22]

The $420s of 2020 have lots of time premium (about $25/share as of close today). No need for immediate concern...

Until another "twitter black swan" event occurs. I watched live what happened to the "time premium" on my leaps (in particular the ones above $400).

I personally readjusted my positions/expectations with the $420 price in mind and with projection for ~6 month time frame for the private deal to move in more decisive direction.

 

[dondy]

The point isn't that this is paper loss right now, so hold tight. That's obvious I would hope. The point is that those who bought at $360+ because of the announcement probably would not have bought up so high otherwise. That money would have been much better deployed now than then, as is the usual pattern with Tesla. The tweet shifted even TSLA veterans into buying high (but not selling low.)

I am curious what should Musk do short of stock trading course? If you look into history of most MBO and LBOs you will see that almost all of them have spike, fall, and final spike in between privatization phases.

Bulls jump the wagon, inflate price and leave retails hanging up. Shorts press from below and start rocking stock price, in the same moment since bulls leave (some completely because stock "departs") you get money outflow and stock price drop. More often than not stock price's spike/drop is 20% or even more. These are the last drops traders squeezes from the fading, or dying stock.

Start of privatization is 8K with the offer. There is none yet. Price rush was completely premature and unwarranted.
Musk announced the beginning of privatization procedure.. Such announcement is usually a "leak" 2-3 weeks before offer. This time is necessary for mutual funds to clean up stables in controllable manner. It's the same story every time, if I recall in Tesla Solar City merger it took even longer time, because Musk had started openly "too early".

 

[Boomer19]

I am glad I didn't listen to your advice.

he was right, there was a much lower price in pre and early trading

 

[tivoboy]

I am glad I didn't listen to your advice.

Time will tell. I’m not a day or hour trader. I’m a swing trader

 

[Opus BC fan]

So far the low is 288.2 and the morning dip is yet to come. Wait for it

I was so sure
I was so wrong
Hope you got your shares

 

[The Blue Owl]

I keep thinking Elon's decision to give an hour-long interview to the Times, which he knew very well couldn't be trusted, in which he perplexingly proceeds to share his deepest emotions, is really difficult to explain. Around the same time, he "goes to YouTube" to give a different kind of interview to someone he trusts, whom he also treats with a personal tour of the factory. He knows that those who read the Times and those who watch MKBHD for the most part do not overlap. It's like he's deliberately talking to two different audiences, delivering two different messages at the same time: to the press, it's "I haven't slept in a month, I eat Ambien for breakfast, and I tweet while I drive", while to the cognoscenti it's "we're doing all these complicated things, and it's hard, but it's also really cool and we're kinda succeeding". He surely knows which of the two will drive the stock price the next day. I mean, if he wanted the price to be lower, for whatever reasons, who's going to go to court to say "Elon Musk manipulated the market by tricking us into manipulating our readers?" Who's going to say he lied, when he didn't? The man is, after all, really sleeping at the factory, when he sleeps at all.

I dunno, most likely it's just wishful thinking on my part to imagine there is method to this madness and I am just seeing patterns in the clouds. On the other hand... all this is just a tiny bit odd.

 

[jw934]

TD took 7 minutes to review and approve transaction.

Me too. But once the option order is approved, you can change the price or reduce the quantity on line yourself.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Pre-market look pretty ...um...downsidey!

When ever pre-mrket is up...I think yes finally...then it seems to drop thru the day.
Maybe today will follow that rule...in inverse.

I have to admit I actually laughed when I read your post this morning thinking it was impossible. Props for calling it!

 

[Johan]

I keep thinking Elon's decision to give an hour-long interview to the Times, which he knew very well couldn't be trusted, in which he perplexingly proceeds to share his deepest emotions, is really difficult to explain. Around the same time, he "goes to YouTube" to give a different kind of interview to someone he trusts, whom he also treats with a personal tour of the factory. He knows that those who read the Times and those who watch MKBHD for the most part do not overlap. It's like he's deliberately talking to two different audiences, delivering two different messages at the same time: to the press, it's "I haven't slept in a month, I eat Ambien for breakfast, and I tweet while I drive", while to the cognoscenti it's "we're doing all these complicated things, and it's hard, but it's also really cool and we're kinda succeeding". He surely knows which of the two will drive the stock price the next day. I mean, if he wanted the price to be lower, for whatever reasons, who's going to go to court to say "Elon Musk manipulated the market by tricking us into manipulating our readers?" Who's going to say he lied, when he didn't? The man is, after all, really sleeping at the factory, when he sleeps at all.

I dunno, most likely it's just wishful thinking on my part and I am just seeing patterns in the clouds. On the other hand... all this is just a bit odd.

You're a thoughtful guy and your analysis is generally spot on.

In this instant; don't overthink it. There's likely no mastermind 3D chess going on here. A deeply dishonest and malevolent New York Times is more than enough to explain the whole thing.

Elon had faith in the NYT as a major, "objective", news outlet, dedicated to bringing forth objective truth. He might have been misled in to thinking this from recent events regarding Trump etc. However he was likely duped and I'd suspect he won't ever do an interview with the Times ever again. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, can't... can't fool me again.

 

[dondy]

I keep thinking Elon's decision to give an hour-long interview to the Times, which he knew very well couldn't be trusted, in which he perplexingly proceeds to share his deepest emotions, is really difficult to explain. Around the same time, he "goes to YouTube" to give a different kind of interview to someone he trusts, whom he also treats with a personal tour of the factory. He knows that those who read the Times and those who watch MKBHD for the most part do not overlap. It's like he's deliberately talking to two different audiences, delivering two different messages at the same time: to the press, it's "I haven't slept in a month, I eat Ambien for breakfast, and I tweet while I drive", while to the cognoscenti it's "we're doing all these complicated things, and it's hard, but it's also really cool and we're kinda succeeding". He surely knows which of the two will drive the stock price the next day. I mean, if he wanted the price to be lower, for whatever reasons, who's going to go to court to say "Elon Musk manipulated the market by tricking us into manipulating our readers?" Who's going to say he lied, when he didn't? The man is, after all, really sleeping at the factory, when he sleeps at all.

I dunno, most likely it's just wishful thinking on my part to imagine there is method to this madness and I am just seeing patterns in the clouds. On the other hand... all this is just a tiny bit odd.

NYT didn't release nor transcripts, neither videos (they often do in other interviews). Instead they make series of hit pieces based on "hour long interview". It's like 4 articles already and counting. Bloomberg didn't provide transcripts neither proper interview videos, instead they did like 3 articles "referring" to interview with rehashing of old stories and FUD.
Same story, different faces.
Of course you can ask question "Did Musk expect such reaction?" The answer we will never know and the answer is irrelevant.
The journalists choose to do FUD, and it is their choice. If somebody is smarter or luckier than them doesn't excuse techniques of character assassination these journalists are so easy to apply.

 

[AWDtsla]

He knows that those who read the Times and those who watch MKBHD for the most part do not overlap. It's like he's deliberately talking to two different audiences, delivering two different messages at the same time: to the press, it's "I haven't slept in a month, I eat Ambien for breakfast, and I tweet while I drive", while to the cognoscenti it's "we're doing all these complicated things, and it's hard, but it's also really cool and we're kinda succeeding".

I don't think so. Speaking as someone very familiar with engineers, Elon always seemed transparent to me. Oversharing if anything. Everybody acting in good faith has confirmed this for years.

"There was no camera off, camera on mode."

 

[AlMc]

You're a thoughtful guy and your analysis is generally spot on.

In this instant; don't overthink it. There's likely no mastermind 3D chess going on here. A deeply dishonest and malevolent New York Times is more than enough to explain the whole thing.

Elon had faith in the NYT as a major, "objective", news outlet, dedicated to bringing forth objective truth. He might have been misled in to thinking this from recent events regarding Trump etc. However he was likely duped and I'd suspect he won't ever do an interview with the Times ever again. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, can't... can't fool me again.

Yep....Occam's razor

 

[dgodfrey]

I can't tell if this final assault by the shorts is a blitzkrieg or kamikaze attack. Doesn't really matter, either way, I know how it ends.

 

[AWDtsla]

NYT didn't release nor transcripts, neither videos (they often do in other interviews). Instead they make series of hit pieces based on "hour long interview". It's like 4 articles already and counting. Bloomberg didn't provide transcripts neither proper interview videos, instead they did like 3 articles "referring" to interview with rehashing of old stories and FUD.
Same story, different faces.
Of course you can ask question "Did Musk expect such reaction?" The answer we will never know and the answer is irrelevant.
The journalists choose to do FUD, and it is their choice. If somebody is smarter or luckier than them doesn't excuse techniques of character assassination these journalists are so easy to apply.

I'd bet there's be people waiting with pitchforks outside the nytimes if they ever released the unedited audio. Followed by an SEC investigation. "Do your friends have any positions in the stock?? Give us your contacts list"

 

[winfield100]

My goodness... Have you ever walked into a Tesla store lately? There are always people in there.

A call for longs:

This is it guys. It’s countdown to take private. Shorts are going all out and assaulting us on every street corner. It’s time to fight back, hit them hard on social media and grind them down, another 5-6 weeks and numbers will be out. Those numbers will speak for themselves, but right now your account could use a little boast, fight back..

Spread simple truths to nervous vshorts
(i've been telling simple truths on SA and get quite impolite pushback)
1) Short interest was 39.1 Million on 5/31, now down to 33.3 Million down almost 15% (1/7 th of the elephants are quietly stampeding for the exits unwinding positions, leaving the mice with a bag of IOU's
2) shorts will owe $13.9 Billion for which they got maybe 7-9 Billion for (big losses)
3) Going private will happen at plaid speed, maybe even before Christmas or New Years 2019
4) Not a lot of free shares for shorts to cover with (Institutions have 98 million shares, leaving 73 million shares max and shorts need 45% of those to cover with -->> ___45%___ <<---
5) spread a little fear among them, be the boulder rolling down the hill

"when the avalanche starts, the pebble has no vote"
roll boulders, spread the love

 

[JRP3]

I was getting nervous when a robot was about to run Musk over. NOOOOOOOOOO

Shorts: "Depressed Elon throws himself in front of a moving robot in attempt to end it all!!!"