TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I think there have been many large buyers with effective limit buy prices around $320 and $300 for over a year. (In order to not show their hand, they would not simply put a "buy 5 million shares at $320 limit" order into the order book, obviously, but I believe that's the economic essence of their behavior.)

I am actually quite sure about this.

Many exchanges, including NASDAQ support 'iceberg orders', i.e. large orders that are showing only the tip of true liquidity in the order book.

But these days I think most big players are using algos for that, that way true liquidity can be distributed better and can be hidden better in regular market action, plus there's also always the question of whether you can trust the exchange to keep your trading data anonymous...

This is why the $320 effective barrier looked so odd, it was almost demonstrative.

We'll see more on Monday ...

 

[jhm]

You know that there are SEC investigations ongoing and law suits from people that suffer losses due to his lies (tweets). We do not have to discuss that they indeed were lies. "only dependent on shareholder vote..." it was all a huge lie on some drug that he had in his system unfortunately.

Have you considered a career in professional trolling?

 

[The Blue Owl]

We'll see more on Monday ...

Go on...

 

[mspohr]

I believe all of this. Tesla's code is quite obviously a complete mess.

What surprised me is that Superchargers can have their firmware remotely updated (!!!)

It would be stupid to drive around to all the Superchargers whenever they needed updates.

 

[Fact Checking]

Go on...

There's four main ways to interpret the $320 barrier:

• If the $320 barrier was a collective support line that was created without anyone big installing it, in the last two low volume days it simply acted as strong support. (I do think there's data points that falsify this, but it's still a remote possibility.) In this case the barrier would act as weak support on Monday.
• If the $320 barrier was simply part of a Friday weekly options play by a big player to protect $320 or lower strike prices, unrelated to the going-private transaction, then it will go away and at most act as weak support on Monday.
  
• If the $320 barrier was installed by a big player who knew/suspected the remaining-public decision: in this case it appears clear to me that they expect the Monday price to go up eventually and wanted to front run that rise in the price.
  
• If the $320 barrier was installed by a big player who didn't know about the remaining-public decision and were surprised about it just like the rest of us. If they expect a drop on Monday the $320 barrier will be gone. If they expect the price to rise on Monday the barrier will remain and act as (strong) support during the day - up to a limit.

I have no idea which one it is, but Monday price action will tell us a bit more about it.

 

[madodel]

Have you considered a career in professional trolling?

I thought that was what this is here? Is there a professional trolling competition somewhere?

 

[Sunlight]

Krugerrand - is the cat going the right way up soon?

Maybe if the share price goes up on Monday?

All the blood has run to my head since the cat turned over.

 

[jhm]

Seven letters:
C-O-N-T-R-O-L

I would expect any further equity issuances to be like Google Class C stock

G-E-N-I-U-S

GOOG vs. GOOGL: All You Need to Know About the Google Stock Split | InvestorPlace

 

[avoigt]

Every time I try to do a short term trade, it winds up becoming a long term purchase.

You are not alone here.

It turns out I am absolutely unable to sell a single share ....

 

[NicoV]

Ever read _The Soul of A New Machine_, by Tracy Kidder?

Weekend Off Topic: Yes I did, when I was about 15 years, not very long after it was published. It was one of the things that started my interest in computing.
Maybe I should read it again.

 

[Krugerrand]

Krugerrand - is the cat going the right way up soon?

Maybe if the share price goes up on Monday?

All the blood has run to my head since the cat turned over.

I don’t have a clue about the cat anymore than I do the SP. It’s all a great mystery.

Fortunately I love a good mystery, especially when there are multiple plot twists. There’s no better WTblueblazes?!?! feeling than thinking you know who dunnit just to turn the page to find that character just got killed off so can’t be the murderer.

Elon, Tesla and TSLA are constant WTBB?!? and so for now we embrace the upside down cat as a reflection of current activities.

Don’t swim/paddle upstream, just go with the flow. Eventually you’ll hit civilization.

 

[Reciprocity]

Ok people. Tesla is staying public. Now is the time to take a stand against the FUD. I know that TMC is a nice safe place to validate your beliefs in Tesla and the mission, but it's a bit of an echo chamber. While the best, most knowledgeable Tesla minds debate endlessly how many cars Tesla will make and how big Tesla will get, there is a war going on for the hearts and minds of the unwitting who are begging duped into shorting Tesla and spreading lies by parking lot truthers and a constant flow of lies and made up facts.

Just ask 10 random people about Tesla and Elon. You will be shocked at how many echo fud. Social media is a powerful tool, it elected a President many of you despise, yet you huddle in the corner muttering how great Tesla is with little or no actual resistance. It's too bad that more people don't read TMC before deciding what to invest in, but they don't. It's too bad traditional media doesn't come to TMC before posting a dumbass article. They take the short cut off searching for $tsla on Twitter and only see a slew of hot garbage.

It is time to get off your arses and counter some fud. I'm only asking that your search for $tsla and find 10 lies per day to correct with facts and a bit of humor. That is the only cure for fud poisoning.

If the best of the best minds from TMC did only that, fudsters would be overwhelmed and we could start to take control of the narrative which will have an impact on what Traditional media broadcasts. It's time.. the fud will ratchet up with the latest chaos around the sec/public/private debate. I emplore you to dive in and take no prisoners! Remember, facts and humor. Keep it light and it will spread.

 

[Hogfighter]

I generally stay away from short term predictions, but this time I’m exposed with some Sep 21 $345 calls and I’d like to hear from others on this board.

I was betting on the deal happening and on some news confirming it during the next week or two. The market obviously didn’t price in a deal, or else the price wouldn’t be where it is. If the Friday close at $322 reflects the equilibrium between the deal believers and the skeptics, now that the deal is dead, I struggle to see how the stock price can break to the upside. Elon’s decision will surely be painted as a retreat caused by an inability to find buyers. CNBC will run stories all day with guests reaffirming that he should find a COO and reiterating the last couple of months of Musk’s tweets together with the NYT “interview” to push the idea that he is exhausted or unstable and approaching a breaking point. The WSJ will surely be along with their take, as will the Times.

As a result of all this, my gut is telling me that it will gap down on open, around $300 or so, and it will swiftly drop lower from there to possibly break under $280, all this in the first 30 minutes. I have no idea what will happen after, but I am inclined to believe the stock will close down for the day.

My short term prediction skills are nothing to write home about, usually, which is why I’m asking. I’m only interested in the Monday action, and possibly the rest of the week. Purely short term only. For instance, projected Q3 production numbers will not be on traders’ mind, I would think, but feel free to disagree (just make sure you explain your thinking, please).

Thoughts?

Here’s my 2 cents:

1) I had a hunch this wouldn’t go through, as he’d piss off every ‘little guy’ shareholder by forcing them out, not to mention some big institutions. PR nightmare from his most ardent believers.

2) I believe Elon was humbled by large investors who basically said ‘we believe in you 100% and have your back’. That allowed him to hear from his backers, as opposed to normally only hearing from his critics.

3) I love that he really listens to others, puts his ego aside, and seems to attempt to make the best decision.

4) We took delivery of our 3 last week. The 3 will literally have unlimited demand. It’s seriously next level. The user interface puts my S to shame. If I was CEO of BMW, I’d quit right now. (Having said that, I still prefer the S due to its size)

5) I have no idea what the SP will do on Monday. But fundamentally the company has never been in better shape than it is today.....making more cars per day than Porsche, with likely higher ASPs than Porsche, growing at over 50% per year, with Tesla Energy just getting going. If it falls I’m buying more.

6) I’m not worried about the SEC.

7) I wish he sounded a little more confidant about profitability.

 

[Fact Checking]

4) We took delivery of our 3 last week. The 3 will literally have unlimited demand. It’s seriously next level. The user interface puts my S to shame. If I was CEO of BMW, I’d quit right now. (Having said that, I still prefer the S due to its size)

While we are used to hearing such statements from ICE owners who bought their first Tesla, that's quite a thing to hear from a Tesla owner!

(Regarding the S and its size: in 2019 I'd eventually expect a 2170 based Model S/X refresh with the interior and UI concepts of the Model 3 and with maybe a 120 kW battery pack.)

 

[D-egg-O]

Ok people. Tesla is staying public. Now is the time to take a stand against the FUD. I know that TMC is a nice safe place to validate your beliefs in Tesla and the mission, but it's a bit of an echo chamber. While the best, most knowledgeable Tesla minds debate endlessly how many cars Tesla will make and how big Tesla will get, there is a war going on for the hearts and minds of the unwitting who are begging duped into shorting Tesla and spreading lies by parking lot truthers and a constant flow of lies and made up facts.

Just ask 10 random people about Tesla and Elon. You will be shocked at how many echo fud. Social media is a powerful tool, it elected a President many of you despise, yet you huddle in the corner muttering how great Tesla is with little or no actual resistance. It's too bad that more people don't read TMC before deciding what to invest in, but they don't. It's too bad traditional media doesn't come to TMC before posting a dumbass article. They take the short cut off searching for $tsla on Twitter and only see a slew of hot garbage.

It is time to get off your arses and counter some fud. I'm only asking that your search for $tsla and find 10 lies per day to correct with facts and a bit of humor. That is the only cure for fud poisoning.

If the best of the best minds from TMC did only that, fudsters would be overwhelmed and we could start to take control of the narrative which will have an impact on what Traditional media broadcasts. It's time.. the fud will ratchet up with the latest chaos around the sec/public/private debate. I emplore you to dive in and take no prisoners! Remember, facts and humor. Keep it light and it will spread.

100% agree. My tactic has been to share my Model 3 ownership experience on twitter and highlighting how there’s really absolutely no comparison. This car has amazing performance and better efficiency than our Leaf.

 

[Open Interest]

How many times has Elon lied about getting profitable? How many times has he failed? And what about the lawsuits currently forming and Tesla is required to build allowances for these lawsuits? They are built over the P&L hence influencing Q3 results significantly (US GAAP). And what about the latest SeekingAlpha Article stating that Q3 results might even be worse then the net loss of 2XX millions? They are saying it might be 350 millions (net loss) for Q3. They do also have these numbers from somewhere?...

And what about the Bloomberg tracker now showing only 4000 vehicles produced in the following 3 weeks? What is going on? I do not believe anything anymore that Elon Musk is telling to the public.

One thing is for sure: If he does not proof to be both profitable (significantly) in both Q3 and Q4 (after cutting jobs and ramping up production) - the shorts will short that thing down to 150 - 200$.

Why are you even in TSLA if you feel this way?

 

[gene]

100% agree. My tactic has been to share my Model 3 ownership experience on twitter and highlighting how there’s really absolutely no comparison. This car has amazing performance and better efficiency than our Leaf.

Yes, the Model 3 at 75 mph is more efficient than our Leaf was at 50 mph! I had learned with my Model S and now especially with my Model 3, that anyone showing any interest in the car, even complete strangers on the street, I take them for a ride. Just last week I met a couple in a Starbucks parking lot. They asked about the car but said they could never own a car with just a screen and no knobs. I gave them a ride for a few minutes. Totally changed their minds! I had given them my code and guess what? I see know they have ordered an X!

In September is Nation Drive Electric Week. I am giving rides all day on the 8th and 9th at two different events in our area. I do this every year and make a lot of converts. Check and see if any events are near you. National Drive Electric Week

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Ok people. Tesla is staying public. Now is the time to take a stand against the FUD. I know that TMC is a nice safe place to validate your beliefs in Tesla and the mission, but it's a bit of an echo chamber. While the best, most knowledgeable Tesla minds debate endlessly how many cars Tesla will make and how big Tesla will get, there is a war going on for the hearts and minds of the unwitting who are begging duped into shorting Tesla and spreading lies by parking lot truthers and a constant flow of lies and made up facts.

Just ask 10 random people about Tesla and Elon. You will be shocked at how many echo fud. Social media is a powerful tool, it elected a President many of you despise, yet you huddle in the corner muttering how great Tesla is with little or no actual resistance. It's too bad that more people don't read TMC before deciding what to invest in, but they don't. It's too bad traditional media doesn't come to TMC before posting a dumbass article. They take the short cut off searching for $tsla on Twitter and only see a slew of hot garbage.

It is time to get off your arses and counter some fud. I'm only asking that your search for $tsla and find 10 lies per day to correct with facts and a bit of humor. That is the only cure for fud poisoning.

If the best of the best minds from TMC did only that, fudsters would be overwhelmed and we could start to take control of the narrative which will have an impact on what Traditional media broadcasts. It's time.. the fud will ratchet up with the latest chaos around the sec/public/private debate. I emplore you to dive in and take no prisoners! Remember, facts and humor. Keep it light and it will spread.

It took me a long time to come around but @Reciprocity is correct, Twitter is still overrun by bears and TMC members actually do have the power to change that.

 

[MXWing]

- Musk doesn't even believe in work-life balance

You wan't vacation time? Go teach 3rd grade public school.

I'm with #teamnosleep

It's not about _work_ its about results. Achieve it by any means necessary.

 

[verygreen]

They have always kept records of who is charging. Salvage cars not allowed.

I would not be so sure.

Superchargers don't have any vin blacklists, all "supercharging allowed" and billing is handled inside the car. Hack the car = free supercharging, allowed supercharging no matter if salvage or not.