TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krispykreme]

I dough not think you know what you are talking about.
FSD post purchase upgrade cost is now 5k, 4k for those grandfathered, and 3k with initial order. That's on top of the cost for EAP (5k or 6k).
New HW is a module made by Tesla with Tesla processor that plugs right into the same spot as the original (~1 hour labor for mobile service). Did you concider the new module may even represent a cost savings on current production?

The only ticking time bomb is the line item of deferred revenue for already purchased FSD/EAP features and the rapidly growing fleet of owners who will pay to upgrade when the SW is released.

That shall be a green market day indeed.

In the words of the London Underground:
Mind the gap

Son- you really didn’t understand the issue.

1. New box cost money to make. Given the amount of compute power needed. Cooling the box, providing the power to the box will be a problem.

2. The amount of memory, higher power components all cost money. This ain’t cheap either.

3. ARM core license fee, GPU license fee- those costs money.

4. The new box will cost a lot more to make and certainly won’t be a cost saving.

5. To make basic level 4 with highway autonomous. Tesla will need at least 2 expensive front and back high power/resolution imaging radar. We haven’t even talked about side and corner to provide u with true 360 point cloud coverage.

6. The camera suite will need to be upgraded as well.

7. Sensor cleaning will also be something Tesla will need to address as well.

8. We haven’t talked about redundancy. Elon thinks Lidar is expensive and not needed. But every other companies that works on AD will tell you Lidar is needed because of redundancy. To reduce cost solid state Lidar will be used but you will still need a minimum of 6.

If you think $4k or $3k is enough. It’s not going to happen. May be in 5 years cost will drop to that point. But who is going to pay for labor to recall the car back and install everything.

BTW, we haven’t discussed anything on HD mapping etc. We also haven’t discussed level 5 Urban autonomous. Nor have we addressed DMC system to detect driver attention.

If you can do all of that by 2020 for $3k/$4k hats off of Tesla.

 

[Krispykreme]

Then why in the world are you wasting your time (and ours) on this forum?

Because it freedom of speech and people has right to hear things from different perspective.

 

[sundaymorning]

Because it freedom of speech and people has right to hear things from different perspective.

I would never buy gas ever again, all my future cars will likely be a Tesla. My perspective is irrelevant, and my freedom of speech is overrated because no one cares.

Do you have any ICE forums to recommend so I can make comments there? It’ll make me feel really important inside.

 

[davecolene0606]

Because it freedom of speech and people has right to hear things from different perspective.

Yup it’s a bot....

Algo not even capable of real syntax or usage...

Fire Away!

 

[SO16]

Because it freedom of speech and people has right to hear things from different perspective.

You honestly want us to believe that’s why you are here? No other financial reason?

 

[wipster]

Is things like this, I wouldn’t invest or buy a Tesla.

Then get the hell off this forum, your comments are not welcome.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Fundamentally having worked in the top three companies mentioned. The approach to design, solve a problem, and sell to customer is very different.

None of the top three would over promise and under deliver. Waymo was 9 years in the making without a market when it started. iPhone was 2 years in the making without a smart phone market. None of them was rushed to market.

I will say this. Tesla wouldn’t have reached it height right now without Elon. He single handily created this market. That deserves to be recognized. But along the way- ego came into play.

Everyday there is story claiming sabotage. Seriously- if Tesla production system is really easily hacked- may be Elon should have invested in a actual reliable manufacturing system instead designing its own.

Mobileeye divorce is another farce. The Eyeq3 chips was never designed to be used in the way that Tesla is using it. Mobileye is way too expensive, and moving toward own chip makes sense. But decision was made in haste and instead of a smooth transition, money were spent to recreate similar chip which is 2 generation behind.

Is things like this, I wouldn’t invest or buy a Tesla.

All companies make mistakes. Tesla’s tend to be short term tactical mistakes. Other company’s mistakes tend be to be long term strategic.

Krispy, if you’re looking for validation of your genius, you’ve come to the wrong place. Maybe a Tesla bear forum might be better for you.

 

[Krispykreme]

All companies make mistakes. Tesla’s tend to be short term tactical mistakes. Other company’s mistakes tend be to be long term strategic.

Krispy, if you’re looking for validation of your genius, you’ve come to the wrong place. Maybe a Tesla bear forum might be better for you.

Sorry I don’t believe in genius nor pretend to be one.

I just won’t be a fan boy and bury my head in sand and see people get killed on an over promised system.

All companies make mistakes. I think Tesla is making a strategic one. It may appear to be tactical mistakes viewing in isolation. But it is not.

Again- I wish Tesla well. Because it did what others hasn’t done before. Accelerated adaption of EV. This is a good thing. It’s a pity to see a good foundation goes to waste that is all.

 

[Krispykreme]

Then get the hell off this forum, your comments are not welcome.

Then you can keep your mouth shut too

 

[mongo]

1. New box cost money to make. Given the amount of compute power needed. Cooling the box, providing the power to the box will be a problem.

Current box takes money to make. Current box has liquid cooling.

2. The amount of memory, higher power components all cost money. This ain’t cheap either.

NN only needs external memory if it is swapping outside the processor, that is the slow way to do things.

3. ARM core license fee, GPU license fee- those costs money.

What GPU? This is Tesla custom silicon, not Nvidia.

4. The new box will cost a lot more to make and certainly won’t be a cost saving.

Why? there are zero GPU royalties or profits to 3rd party. System is optimized for its function. Have you ever had an ASIC made?

5. To make basic level 4 with highway autonomous. Tesla will need at least 2 expensive front and back high power/resolution imaging radar. We haven’t even talked about side and corner to provide u with true 360 point cloud coverage.

Why? rear facing radar does nothing to help you drive forward, current radar is redundant to the 3 front cameras.

6. The camera suite will need to be upgraded as well.

Why?

7. Sensor cleaning will also be something Tesla will need to address as well.

Windshield wipers come standard.

8. We haven’t talked about redundancy. Elon thinks Lidar is expensive and not needed. But every other companies that works on AD will tell you Lidar is needed because of redundancy. To reduce cost solid state Lidar will be used but you will still need a minimum of 6.

Lidar gives zero redundancy vs stop lights. If you need to read lights and signs, lidar is a cost burden, not a help.

If you think $4k or $3k is enough. It’s not going to happen. May be in 5 years cost will drop to that point. But who is going to pay for labor to recall the car back and install everything.

Sub 2 hour swap out, not a factor.

BTW, we haven’t discussed anything on HD mapping etc. We also haven’t discussed level 5 Urban autonomous. Nor have we addressed DMC system to detect driver attention.

HD mapping is a crutch. If you need it, your system is not reliable in new areas and thus not reliable. FSD does not require driver attention, nor does EAP when it is just FSD with nags.

If you can do all of that by 2020 for $3k/$4k hats off of Tesla.

Why are you dropping the 5-6k for EAP? Do you expect 500 million+ per year software development cost?

Son- you really didn’t understand the issue.

What you don't understand is this is the Market Action thread, and if you can't comprehend the concept of categories, AP is outside your understanding.

 

[Intl Professor]

Because it freedom of speech and people has right to hear things from different perspective.

We don't have freedom of speech. There are libel and slander laws. Our Federal Government cannot restrict speech, and most state governments. The error of many people who assert we have freedom of speech in the next breath want an audience. Where do we have a right to an audience? Where do these rights come from, a place where the sun don't shine?

Free and open inquiry, moderated by good taste and transparency with clear adjudication of controversy through reproduction of evidence is, of course, the hallmark of scientific progress. Even then there are controversies, the Velikovsky affair for example.

 

[wipster]

Then you can keep your mouth shut too

Son, my fingers do the talking and I believe my comments are usually welcome, unlike people like you who apparently don't own Tesla stock and would never consider buying a Tesla vehicle. If that's the case, as you said earlier, your comments and criticism of the other posters who either own stock and/or Tesla vehicles are most certainly not welcome since it appears your sole presence on this forum is to create hate and discontent. Go back to the hole you climbed out of.

 

[SO16]

Nope. Don’t own any Tesla stock.

I don’t work for Tesla competitor . But I do work in AD field. So I know exactly what each companies are doing (you can tell easily on the components on the car- it doesn’t take a genius to figure that out).

Because almost everyone other than Waymo, uses the same components.

My interest is more solving and prevention of crash death. I don’t like Tesla approach on this subject.

Good thing there are multiple approaches being done so we can see which is best. Right now no one knows that answer. Time will tell.

So far, many of your concerns have been debunked. Seems like an attempt to spread FUD more than anything. Just sayin.

 

[TheMrX]

The problem with this analysis is many fold.

1. Amazon had specific business plan and knows and tightly control how much to lose on each new product it launches. From day one there was a loss target which Amazon stuck to. That is why it never broke the company. This financial discipline doesn’t exist in Tesla.

2. Tesla sales is above BMW combined in US as example- so what. BMW has over 10% profit margin on the car it sells. You don’t have that with TSLA. You can’t continue to sell promises and not turn a profit. Look what happened to Global Foundries.

3. The biggest problem is a lot of underlying time bomb that hasn’t exploded. All of the autopilot 2.0 HW cars on the road- Elon has only budgeted a mere $3k to upgrade to full autonomous. I wish Tesla the very best. But this is a time bomb that is just one class action lawsuit away to break Tesla back.

Sorry guys, this should have been posted a lot earlier and I think it should be pointed to people that seems to appear here very often in the last couple of months, trying all to save us long from our bad investment decision in Tesla.

So, Specially for you Krispykreme, and on your point 1 regarding ''financial discipline doesn't exist in Tesla'' (long Sigh)

The Extreme Financial Discipline Of Tesla

 

[elasalle]

Nope. Don’t own any Tesla stock.

I don’t work for Tesla competitor . But I do work in AD field. So I know exactly what each companies are doing (you can tell easily on the components on the car- it doesn’t take a genius to figure that out).

Because almost everyone other than Waymo, uses the same components.

My interest is more solving and prevention of crash death. I don’t like Tesla approach on this subject.

Send your resume to tesla ...

 

[omarsultan]

None of the top three would over promise and under deliver. Waymo was 9 years in the making without a market when it started. iPhone was 2 years in the making without a smart phone market. None of them was rushed to market.

I'd hardly say Tesla rushed to market--the Model S was 9 years in the making and the Model 3 was 14 years in the making. In the six years that the Model S has been shipping, Elon & Co. have made good choices, made bad choices and learned from both, building their technical, business and operational chops. There is unique, irreplacable value in that. Waymo might arguably have better autonomous driving tech today but they are still in the starting blocks when it comes to building a viable, scalable business.

BTW, I am a big fan of all three companies but they have all had their moments. Google X has had its share of failures like Google Glass and Project Loon, Apple has their numerous social network misfires, lackadaisical Siri functionality and tepid Homekit uptake...perhaps Amazon is the only company that I don't think has ever let me down.

 

[RABaby]

Why hasn't that POS been banned yet?
Oh, that's right, the mod quit.
A short who repeats lies is equivalent to an idiot and neither should be tolerated here.

 

[SO16]

Nope. Don’t own any Tesla stock.

I don’t work for Tesla competitor . But I do work in AD field.

My interest is more solving and prevention of crash death. I don’t like Tesla approach on this subject.

Perhaps your time would be better spent by working on a better AD platform to show Tesla how it’s done so that fewer deaths occur. You are wasting your time trying to convince us “Elon Worshippers” that he is doing it wrong. Talk is cheap. Show us how it’s done!

 

[Zaxxon]

What you don't understand is this is the Market Action thread

In his defense, the vast majority of this thread's participants also do not understand the purpose of this thread.

 

[elasalle]

'I hate them': Locals reportedly frustrated with Alphabet's self-driving cars