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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Son- you really didn’t understand the issue.

1. New box cost money to make. Given the amount of compute power needed. Cooling the box, providing the power to the box will be a problem.

2. The amount of memory, higher power components all cost money. This ain’t cheap either.

3. ARM core license fee, GPU license fee- those costs money.

4. The new box will cost a lot more to make and certainly won’t be a cost saving.

5. To make basic level 4 with highway autonomous. Tesla will need at least 2 expensive front and back high power/resolution imaging radar. We haven’t even talked about side and corner to provide u with true 360 point cloud coverage.

6. The camera suite will need to be upgraded as well.

7. Sensor cleaning will also be something Tesla will need to address as well.

8. We haven’t talked about redundancy. Elon thinks Lidar is expensive and not needed. But every other companies that works on AD will tell you Lidar is needed because of redundancy. To reduce cost solid state Lidar will be used but you will still need a minimum of 6.

If you think $4k or $3k is enough. It’s not going to happen. May be in 5 years cost will drop to that point. But who is going to pay for labor to recall the car back and install everything.

BTW, we haven’t discussed anything on HD mapping etc. We also haven’t discussed level 5 Urban autonomous. Nor have we addressed DMC system to detect driver attention.

If you can do all of that by 2020 for $3k/$4k hats off of Tesla.

For #3. I am curious on what you know about their architecture. I am not familiar with tsla's boards or architecture, but I am assuming that there's already a general purpose cpu on the board that's interfaced to the gpu/would be asic slot.

So the asic should only be a special purpose parrallel process chip that executes op codes specific to image recognition functions.

I am just assuming here since that was how most of the machine vision boards were designed. General purpose cpu, ram cluster and asic on separate chips on the pcb. Elon mentioned the asic is a drop in replacement for the gpu, furthere stregthening this concept. If you have acces to the pcb layout and post it here, we can go deeper into overheating power consumption and whether or not it is possible. I am assuming tsla will be using state of the art 7nm process from tsmc.
 
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Debunked? Haha. May be my investors and competitors are all wrong then.

Again- the only company that is working on AD with a weak main box and no Lidar is Tesla.

Yes... maybe.

I don’t recall ever requiring Lidar to drive my car. AI is the key. Vision should be the only sense needed. Anything beyond that and AI is fluff.
 
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Why hasn't that POS been banned yet?
Oh, that's right, the mod quit.
A short who repeats lies is equivalent to an idiot and neither should be tolerated here.
Lack of tolerance on this forum is driving me bonkers.
I don't necessarily agree with @Krispykreme but he brings perspective we haven't had here, and knowing software and knowing Tesla, some statements resonate with me.

It would appear that some people like to come here for emotional support, not to learn about market action and Tesla.
I sometimes wonder if least tolerant members of this forum actually have anything serious invested in Tesla, or is it a hobby type of amount?
I like arguments and discussion, but calling for anyone remotely negative to leave, really, is that the best we can do?!
 
Lack of tolerance on this forum is driving me bonkers.
I don't necessarily agree with @Krispykreme but he brings perspective we haven't had here, and knowing software and knowing Tesla, some statements resonate with me.

It would appear that some people like to come here for emotional support, not to learn about market action and Tesla.
I sometimes wonder if least tolerant members of this forum actually have anything serious invested in Tesla, or is it a hobby type of amount?
I like arguments and discussion, but calling for anyone remotely negative to leave, really, is that the best we can do?!

I totally agree. It isn’t as though the “careful bull” has been demeaning to others he doesn’t agree with.
 
Debunked? Haha. May be my investors and competitors are all wrong then.

Again- the only company that is working on AD with a weak main box and no Lidar is Tesla.
I love to hear your thoughts further, but Tesla doing something different than anyone else doesn't concern me.
It is Musk's signature. Underestimating him would be dangerous for all competitors.
I mean, no one thought rockets could be landed and reused, right?
 
I'd hardly say Tesla rushed to market--the Model S was 9 years in the making and the Model 3 was 14 years in the making. In the six years that the Model S has been shipping, Elon & Co. have made good choices, made bad choices and learned from both, building their technical, business and operational chops. There is unique, irreplacable value in that. Waymo might arguably have better autonomous driving tech today but they are still in the starting blocks when it comes to building a viable, scalable business.

BTW, I am a big fan of all three companies but they have all had their moments. Google X has had its share of failures like Google Glass and Project Loon, Apple has their numerous social network misfires, lackadaisical Siri functionality and tepid Homekit uptake...perhaps Amazon is the only company that I don't think has ever let me down.

There's that Amazon Fire phone thingy.
 
Lack of tolerance on this forum is driving me bonkers.
I don't necessarily agree with @Krispykreme but he brings perspective we haven't had here, and knowing software and knowing Tesla, some statements resonate with me.

It would appear that some people like to come here for emotional support, not to learn about market action and Tesla.
I sometimes wonder if least tolerant members of this forum actually have anything serious invested in Tesla, or is it a hobby type of amount?
I like arguments and discussion, but calling for anyone remotely negative to leave, really, is that the best we can do?!
'
This guy has ulterior motives and is a liar. To say Tesla doesn't make money selling its cars is lunacy. We all know the story and it has been discussed ad infinitum.

He also attacks in a passive aggressive mode demonstrated by his responding to others as "son" and dismissing anybody else's knowledge of a subject as though he knows what others don't.

No, this POS is here to stir the pot and not to discuss anything reasonably. We have bearish bulls who offer differing opinions and aren't here to create dissension. I doubt you have as much invested in TSLA as I do so to introduce that as a measure for one's sincerity is insulting in itself. And if you had read my earlier post, which I know you did because so far you are the only one to register a "disagree" you will know that I don't seek emotional support and don't like hearing the whiners complain about how Musk is running the business - or ruining it. I paid my money and I am taking my chances.

Now if you don't like the jockey on the horse, this is the sort of horse race where you can still cash in your ticket at the current price.

I do notice that there are a number of obvious shorts you seem to defend along the way. While a differing opinion is fine, the people you seem to support are those least useful in debating the merits of Tesla's technology. Demonstrating some knowledge of a system is important in pulling the ruse, but few, if any of those who are not interested in a strong Tesla are able to hide their contempt for long. The reason some people get your ire is probably that they see what you can't - or you have ulterior motives.
 
For #3. I am curious on what you know about their architecture. I am not gamiliar with tsla's boards or architecture, but I am assuming that there's already a genwral purpose cpu on the board that's interfaced to the gpu/would be asic slot.

So the asic should inly be a special purpose parrallel process chip that executes op codes specific to image recognition functions.

I am just assuming here since that most of hie the machine vision boards were designed. General purpose cpu, ram and asic on separate chips on the pcb. Elon mentioned the asic is a drop in replacement for the gpu, furthere stregthening this concept. If you have acces to the pcb layout and post it here, we can go deeper into overheating power consumption and whether or not it is possible. I am assuming tsla will be using state of the art 7nm process from tsmc.

I can’t say too much on their architecture.

At least what I am working on. The general CPU is an ARM (I won’t disclose). GPU is still needed to process the raw image from camera and imaging radar. So i don’t buy Elon comment on a drop in ARM to replace the GPU. Because they serve different purpose.

The GPU is in 12/14 nm process. Hasn’t moved down to 7nm yet. With global foundry bailing out just couple days ago. GPU volume won’t be attractive to likes of TSMC and Samsung. So that move isn’t happening anytime soon.

The AP 2.0 box uses a mix version of drive PX2 platform (2 Parker and 1 pascal GPU). Which runs between 8 TOPS to 20 TOPS. Parker run around 1.5 Watts each. The GPU is what consumes most power. Tesla box only uses one GPU instead of 2. So it’s probably in range of 100W.

The nVidia Pegasus platform- which is the first gen true level 5 platform (which at least what Nvidia believes). Runs at 320 tops with total thermal power at 500 watts. This is close to 5 times more. 10 times may be an exaggeration on my part. But the problem is significantly different. :). In order to not run Pegasus at full bandwidth as no one really know what urban will require.. A version of PX2 May be retained to perform level 2 and below function.

From the proposal I have seen- the power needed is close to 750 watt.

But then again Elon probably knows better than everyone :). May be he can do it with less than 200 watt on AP 3.0. You never know.
 
We are talking a minimum factor of 10 in power consumption and cooling required.



...
If I remember well from the last CC, from the intro to Tesla's AD team. team has talked about 10x performance at the same power consumption.
It's too late for me to dig out transcript now, but I'm 90% that this was the statement, i.e. power should not increase.

Here is the piece:

Peter Bannon - Tesla, Inc.

Sure. So, like two years ago when I joined Tesla, we did a survey of all of the solutions that were out there for running neural networks, including GPUs. We went and talked to other people like at ARM that were building embedded solutions for running neural networks. And pretty much everywhere we looked, if somebody had a hammer, whether it was a CPU or a GPU or whatever, they were adding something to accelerate neural networks. But nobody was doing a bottoms-up design from scratch, which is what we elected to do.

We had the benefit of having the insight into seeing what Tesla's neural networks looked like back then and having projections of what they would look like into the future, and we were able to leverage all of that knowledge and our willingness to totally commit to that style of computing to produce a design that's dramatically more efficient and has dramatically more performance than what you can buy today.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Cool. Thanks. Yeah, I mean, essentially the key is to be able to run the neural net at a fundamental, at a bare metal level so that it's especially doing the calculations in the circuits itself and not in some sort of emulation mode which is how a GPU or a CPU would operate. So, you want to do basically a massive amount of localized matrix multiplication with the memory right there.
 
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If I remember well from the last CC, from the intro to Tesla's AD team. team has talked about 10x performance at the same power consumption.
It's too late for me to dig out transcript now, but I'm 90%+ that this was the statement, i.e. power should not increase.

It really depends on what you are trying to solve. If Elon think he can solve L4/L5 without GPU, all powers to him. It easy to get 10x performance out of arm thru lithography change without impacting power consumption that much.

I think this is fundamentally the difference between what Tesla thinks vs rest of industry. So likes of Waymo, zoox, cruise,aptiv,......... are all wrong and Tesla is the sole righteousness. You never know.
 
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