TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[P90D]

"I think we now know the X should not have had pedestal seats or wing doors"

I own 2 X's and are assertively say that they are items that I extremely value......don't disagree though that market volume is Y vs. X.

I think quality is the externally measurable fact that tells us what's going on inside the factory. If the system were designed and constructed for the huge numbers some would believe (600K/year) there's be no hell and no problem producing 5-7K/week (whether its 3's or all three models.)
I have an X 6-seater and would rather have conventional fold-flat seats and barn door minivan doors in favor of functionality, quality and time to market, profitability, etc.
It's one of those intangible unknowables, but I'm pretty sure I'd have paid $130K+ for an EV 'minivan' from Tesla in 2016, though just typing it now does sound a bit unlikely in retrospect.
As for production capacity, whatever the factory design, it's clearly struggling to hit 50K Model 3s in Q3
It's "okay" to have wing doors, but they're functionally useless other than maybe keeping the rain off ... at the expense of terrible shut lines and second-rate build quality, not to mention slow open/close and the "chopping vegetables in half" safety concerns. : )
Point being Musk conceded they'd made mistakes and learned lessons, but here we are, almost 3 years later, and Tesla is still unable to build a quality product. I've steered numerous friends towards buying an X and they love driving the thing, but they've invariably walked away saying it's just not up to snuff -- missing basic content, iffy build quality and remarkably inferior fit and finish compared to whatever they chose (usually Range Rover or Porsche, but sometimes Mercedes) ... and I can't think of anyone that's gone with a "competitor" EV (e.g. Volvo or waiting for 2019 models, etc.)
And as I type, I'm getting fills on short puts and $TSLA is revisiting $298 ... I have black tape over my P&L now. : |
That's enough out of my pocket for one day, more of the same tomorrow I guess. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum.

 

[sub]

I’m about 10 pages behind so excuse me if this has been said or the discussion has been banned by a Mod.

I’ll preface this by saying I’m not trying to compare myself to Elon (I’m much smarter and more accomplished, not to mention stunningly good looking )

I find it interesting that both bulls and shorts feel they can psycho analyze Elon using only a tweet or email? It was my understanding that there was a lot more to communication than that? Of course I expect the short trolls to spin it to “Elon has lost his mind, cracking under the pressure” because that’s what they do, but bulls?

I’ve had this happen to me so many times when texting. I’m blunt and don’t pull punches, but I’m also almost completely void of feelings and emotions (just ask my wife). However, my bluntness (via text or email) is always twisted into me being “angry” or whatever childish emotion they want to attribute to me that makes them feel better about themselves.

Hint: NOBODY HAS ANY IDEA OF ELONS EMOTIONAL STATE WHEN HE IS TWEETING.

I think Elon also doesn’t suffer fools gladly, I can relate. As I’ve gotten older I’ve managed to control myself, I use to think I could make everyone see the world logically but finally came to my senses. I still slip up way more often than I like and get sucked into a debate with a moron. Main reason why I haven’t joined the twitter fight, I’m burned out on arguing with stupid.

I’m guessing Elon knows he shouldn’t do it but sometimes you just can’t help yourself.

However, for all we know Elon could be rolling on the floor in laughter with his friends everytime he clowns someone on Twitter. Prove he isn’t?

Enough with the psychoanalyzing, I’m quite confident Elon is perfectly stable, that’s how he is wired.

 

[Unpilot]

I'm not saying better sensors are a bad thing, I'm saying they're a complement to reasoning and not a substitute for it.

I thunk there is a mistake in both underestimating the speed of technology change...and overestimating how soon it will affect people.

The "ability" to reason for a machine/software will probably happen before we can fully understand how it happened.

So AI as a driver of autonomous cars will happen faster than most people think.

After all AI driving software is narrow AI ..with more edge cases that could derail the while process...i.e. the fatality with the bike a year or so ago.

 

[tivoboy]

If you’re looking to “add” for a medium to longer term position we’ll get under $290

I know most of,you don’t want to hear that.

 

[bdy0627]

I think quality is the externally measurable fact that tells us what's going on inside the factory. If the system were designed and constructed for the huge numbers some would believe (600K/year) there's be no hell and no problem producing 5-7K/week (whether its 3's or all three models.)
I have an X 6-seater and would rather have conventional fold-flat seats and barn door minivan doors in favor of functionality, quality and time to market, profitability, etc.
It's one of those intangible unknowables, but I'm pretty sure I'd have paid $130K+ for an EV 'minivan' from Tesla in 2016, though just typing it now does sound a bit unlikely in retrospect.
As for production capacity, whatever the factory design, it's clearly struggling to hit 50K Model 3s in Q3
It's "okay" to have wing doors, but they're functionally useless other than maybe keeping the rain off ... at the expense of terrible shut lines and second-rate build quality, not to mention slow open/close and the "chopping vegetables in half" safety concerns. : )
Point being Musk conceded they'd made mistakes and learned lessons, but here we are, almost 3 years later, and Tesla is still unable to build a quality product. I've steered numerous friends towards buying an X and they love driving the thing, but they've invariably walked away saying it's just not up to snuff -- missing basic content, iffy build quality and remarkably inferior fit and finish compared to whatever they chose (usually Range Rover or Porsche, but sometimes Mercedes) ... and I can't think of anyone that's gone with a "competitor" EV (e.g. Volvo or waiting for 2019 models, etc.)
And as I type, I'm getting fills on short puts and $TSLA is revisiting $298 ... I have black tape over my P&L now. : |
That's enough out of my pocket for one day, more of the same tomorrow I guess. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum.

Very much disagree about the fit and finish being subpar on the X. We just bought an X this summer for my wife and she absolutely loves it. She drives about 40,000 miles annually for her job, so it is getting a serious workout. She came from an Acura MDX, so not a high luxury SUV but still a very good one. There is no contest between the 2 for her. She finds the fit and finish of the X to be excellent. She does NOT like the Falcon doors and would much prefer regular doors instead. We have the 6 seat version for the open feeling and wish the middle row would fold flat. We don't spend any time admiring the middle row from the side.

 

[neroden]

I thunk there is a mistake in both underestimating the speed of technology change...and overestimating how soon it will affect people.

The "ability" to reason for a machine/software will probably happen before we can fully understand how it happened.

So AI as a driver of autonomous cars will happen faster than most people think.

After all AI driving software is narrow AI ..with more edge cases that could derail the while process...i.e. the fatality with the bike a year or so ago.

This is magical thinking. I have now spent enough time reading neurobiology and psychology stuff to actually have a general sense of how "human reasoning" works now. It's a bunch of separate modules which each do different things and then are linked to each other. We now have analogues to *couple* of these modules working decently on computers, but we haven't got most of the modules yet. And then there's the problem of making the modules talk to each other, which really hasn't been done at all.

AI driving is actually broad AI, at least if you want it to make sensible decisions. :-( The road situation is much more generic than people think it is, as I am reminded every time I drive on a road which is half dug up on my way past a street festival on the way to park on a lawn.

*Expressway* driving might be called narrow AI.

 

[CaliBear1]

Your description of the X build quality flies in the face of the experience of one of my best friends. He's an accomplished engineer, Annapolis grad and former F-4 Phantom pilot. He absolutely loves his Model X, from the build quality and functionality to the visceral thrills of the drive experience. He and his family are taking delivery of an AWD Model 3 this Saturday. I'll see them on Monday, when I can drive it and compare it to my recent test drive experience in the P3D. And as for that P3D, as I posted earlier, it's a technological tour de force,a design marvel and an absolute visceral thrill. The build quality is fantastic and the ride better than my 2015 BMW 335is. Undoubtedly some early builds of the X and 3 have their issues, but I think you're venturing into care bear territory with your sweeping indictments of Tesla vehicle build quality.

I think quality is the externally measurable fact that tells us what's going on inside the factory. If the system were designed and constructed for the huge numbers some would believe (600K/year) there's be no hell and no problem producing 5-7K/week (whether its 3's or all three models.)
I have an X 6-seater and would rather have conventional fold-flat seats and barn door minivan doors in favor of functionality, quality and time to market, profitability, etc.
It's one of those intangible unknowables, but I'm pretty sure I'd have paid $130K+ for an EV 'minivan' from Tesla in 2016, though just typing it now does sound a bit unlikely in retrospect.
As for production capacity, whatever the factory design, it's clearly struggling to hit 50K Model 3s in Q3
It's "okay" to have wing doors, but they're functionally useless other than maybe keeping the rain off ... at the expense of terrible shut lines and second-rate build quality, not to mention slow open/close and the "chopping vegetables in half" safety concerns. : )
Point being Musk conceded they'd made mistakes and learned lessons, but here we are, almost 3 years later, and Tesla is still unable to build a quality product. I've steered numerous friends towards buying an X and they love driving the thing, but they've invariably walked away saying it's just not up to snuff -- missing basic content, iffy build quality and remarkably inferior fit and finish compared to whatever they chose (usually Range Rover or Porsche, but sometimes Mercedes) ... and I can't think of anyone that's gone with a "competitor" EV (e.g. Volvo or waiting for 2019 models, etc.)
And as I type, I'm getting fills on short puts and $TSLA is revisiting $298 ... I have black tape over my P&L now. : |
That's enough out of my pocket for one day, more of the same tomorrow I guess. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum.

 

[neroden]

If you’re looking to “add” for a medium to longer term position we’ll get under $290

I know most of,you don’t want to hear that.

That would be pretty neat. I think it's beyond ludicrous that the stock is trading in this range just before the best financial results the company has ever shown, but I guess the big short-sellers have to unload their positions on retail muppets before the financial come out. :shrug:

 

[Foghat]

Ford, GM Sales Fall in August

Hmmm... I wonder what Tesla’s sales will look like in August?

Fact is the auto industry is very frightened by what numbers Tesla is pulling.

But you wouldn’t see that because some get caught up in the propaganda that masks it.

The louder they get, the more Tesla is making a real impact now and will continue to do so in the future. And Big Legacy Cos know it and are deploying defensive resources accordingly.

Don’t listen to the noise. Focus on the signal.

 

[gene]

I think it's beyond ludicrous that the stock is trading in this range just before the best financial results the company has ever shown, :shrug:

ok, you convinced me, I added just now.

 

[Do It]

Think about it. The idea is he can't control himself not to tweet, how do you stop him unless you take all his devices away from him?

I don't think Elon is unreasonable - he is emotional and sometimes tweets stuff that he regrets later - he said it himself pretty much to that effect. if that is the case a personal assistant who can serve as gate-keeper for his tweets would be completely a reasonable and win-win solution. I suspect the lack of such mechanism is not due to Elon's refusal but people in position to implement such a solution not doing their job. Maybe all it needs is a direct and concrete suggestion from investors to trigger something.

 

[Foghat]

ok, you convinced me, I added just now.

Yeah, it’s hard for people on the street not to notice a Tesla plow through 4 feet high flood waters, zoom past all traffic struggling to get over a mountain pass, or accelerate on a dime to pass you on a country road.

I can’t imagine how the ICE truck driver in the slow lane will react to Tesla Semi cruising by like nothing go over a mountain pass.

That kind of stuff doesn’t care about Wall Street shorts opinion on CNBC, they will want the Tesla every time in the real world.

Reminder, August car sales numbers come out soon.

 

[msvoyager]

Good points....Re: #4--there are a number of very good investigative companies that Tesla could/should (ie Kroll) engage to not only see if they can connect the dots but also to try to determine if shorts are "legal" and/or their connection to press.

Totally agree with the suggested action and the company (Kroll) to approach for this.

 

[Unpilot]

This is magical thinking. I have now spent enough time reading neurobiology and psychology stuff to actually have a general sense of how "human reasoning" works now. It's a bunch of separate modules which each do different things and then are linked to each other. We now have analogues to *couple* of these modules working decently on computers, but we haven't got most of the modules yet. And then there's the problem of making the modules talk to each other, which really hasn't been done at all.

AI driving is actually broad AI, at least if you want it to make sensible decisions. :-( The road situation is much more generic than people think it is, as I am reminded every time I drive on a road which is half dug up on my way past a street festival on the way to park on a lawn.

*Expressway* driving might be called narrow AI.

Actually the well defined pathways for most AI driving would be pretty narrow. But yes the last ..say 15% would require more "Robust " AI.

Anyway I have helped derail the market thread enough.

Off to shake the seat cushions for some change.

This current sale is to good to pass up.

 

[neroden]

I actually have bought a little more stock and sold some more puts over the last few days. The sheer *irrelevance* of the disinformation is staggering at this point.

I suspect the paint shop problems will be resolved now that the sabotage (!!!) has been identified. We should be on a relentless path to higher production, higher deliveries, lower cost of production, and higher quality, and frankly if Musk has a nervous breakdown and has to take a month's rest, the company will still be profitable. It will still make 50K-55K Model 3s in the quarter, deliver slightly more, and have positive financial results.

 

[JRP3]

if that is the case a personal assistant who can serve as gate-keeper for his tweets would be completely a reasonable and win-win solution.

And how would that work at 3 in the morning on the factory floor when Elon feels like sending out a tweet? Every device he has access to would need to route all his communications to someone else to review before it goes out to the world. I just don't see a realistic practical solution.

 

[Mader Levap]

But Twitter bulls lose a lot of credibility when arguing things like... "Pshhhh, Moody's. Remember 2008? Lol"

Losing credibility by pointing out that rating agency - where entire point of their existence is to correctly assess and rate stocks - rated complete trash as something most desirable? There is no bigger mistake (ha! "mistake", right) that rating agency can do.

As far I am concerned, all rating agences are utter trash.

 

[Electroman]

The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Moody's are all generally respected organizations that have more trust and respect than Elon Musk

I stopped reading at your first bullet. NYT, WSJ are respected organizations? Don't make me puke.

These are pimps who will dance to the tune and sell their first born to anyone who pays them moolahs. Sorry for all the pimps out there, you guys do a slightly more respectable jobs.

 

[Chickenlittle]

You mean that can and will be Elon's defense..?

I don't know but calling someone dirty doesnt seem like libel. The connection to pedofile is in your own mind

 

[Chickenlittle]

How quick we are to assume the worse