TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

And now back to the Market Action thread.

Currently:

-2.7% F
-2.3% GM
-1.4% TSLA

 

[ZachShahan]

If you’re looking to “add” for a medium to longer term position we’ll get under $290

I know most of,you don’t want to hear that.

Now that we've solidly crossed below $300, do you think $300 is going to become a barrier on rises from any good news?

Also, any expectations regarding analyst updates in the coming week?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Agreed that Elon would do better to show Bezos-like restraint. (It's easier said than done) What has AMZN done since Trump started bashing the company? (which started on the campaign trail IIRC) pretty damn nice, and we can be sure it would be less nice if Jeff Bezos had been out there trying to take on Trump... giving the media all the fodder it needs for the saga-of-the-year. Still... that would be a bigger deal than Elon going back and forth with some retired diver who's shouting his mouth off. But Elon should have said nothing, even if he was getting maligned... because his behaviour can (and does) directly affect TSLA.

Happy to join in with the effort to discredit FUD on Twitter. I thought this recent CleanTechnica article is a great way to focus innocent readers to what is going on.
40 Tesla Headlines On CNBC In 2 Days — 31 Negative, 2 Positive | CleanTechnica

And... I think Elon knows that Model 3 production is headed skyward, and everyone will know it around October 3rd. The cash burn story will be history.

I've gotten so used to expecting stories of hardship out of Tesla regarding Model 3. I find myself reacting like a deer in headlights when I read unexpected developments like Model 3 getting previewed in Australia and Hong Kong... Model 3 manufacturing added to the factory tour... and stare once again at those amazing sales charts that see the Model 3 so high up.

I don't feel so bad about the depressed SP. It will return to 370+ before the end of the year.

Bezos doesn't need to *sugar* on Trump. He owns the Washington Post which will do it for him.

 

[Causalien]

I didn't understand why people waste money on alcohol, weed, cigarettes either. Aflec just went to rehab, again. Only recently I started to understand why losing weight is so difficult. Apparently food reduces stress and it is a very safe way for that purpose

Elon has access to way more high end stress relief measures. If he wants, heroine, escort, and guns, but that'd be bad for optics. For healthier alternatives, Massage, spas, personal chef, psyhchologists. Twitter is cheap thrills from my point of view and a tool for people who need fame to earn money. And ya, alcohool, weed cigarettes are all better addictions than Twitter. At least they actually give you a high.

Personally I find kickboxing the best stress relief. Tape the face of the person du jour you hate on the bag and punch away. Anger multiplies your physical prowess by 2x.

 

[Fact Checking]

And now back to the Market Action thread.

Currently:

-2.7% F
-2.3% GM
-1.4% TSLA

Interesting, that is either coincidence, or potentially it is suggesting some not yet public "bad news" being traded on, one that would hit all carmakers badly: for example upcoming (bad) tariff news in the NAFTA zone would be such an event.

 

[tivoboy]

Now that we've solidly crossed below $300, do you think $300 is going to become a barrier on rises from any good news?

Also, any expectations regarding analyst updates in the coming week?

no, but I think 310$ will be. Options pricing on anything above that in the front month and oct/nov has been cut in half.

 

[ZachShahan]

Ok, I’ve been an investor for several years and have never seen Elon act so erratic (on Twitter at least... his video with MBKHD and the quarterly earnings call were awesome).

I’ll put this out there because it’s a non-zero probability; forewarning the rest is speculation on my part... he could be stressed out because now all of the chips are riding on Model 3 production. They need to get this right as the my have convertible bonds outstanding and they’ve guided toward profitability in second half of this year. If they’ve determined that it’s not possible (for whatever reason) then credibility is lost and the mission is at risk.

Not to mention he didn’t equivocate on the notion of raising equity. So it puts them in a corner. This could be a very stressful corner.

It would also explain why going private would have been helpful to remove scrutiny from Wall St analysts and others.

I’m not saying this because I want this to be the case, just that I can’t reason through why this noise is there. As someone else mentioned, Bezos came under fire and just focused on execution.

I think it's hugely a Twitter issue, imho. I remember a few years ago when he tweeted one of my stories and it stayed on the top of his feed for something like 3 weeks. In a couple of months, only a handful of tweets around that one — all related to his companies. (Mine was about solar power in general.)

He gradually started using Twitter more and more ... and more. Great for press in many regards, but Twitter seems to invite people to be too open and loose with their words — and Elon is already super open and playful. I think these aspects of Twitter attract him, as does his insatiable desire for information. But I think it is absolutely not a safe place for him to play without support at this point. As someone noted, just a handful of people he trusts checking tweets before they go out would make this quarter dramatically different than it's been.

I would NEVER want to kill his candid, open, interactive, crowdsourcing approach to Twitter, but I think it's clear at this point that even if many of us think "let Elon be Elon," large-scale investors are fed up with it and are most likely willing to drop the stock rather than lose their money on some risky tweeting.

As much as I'd like this to not be about market action, my guess is that a large portion of the share price drop we've seen in the past week is from people getting spooked or just exhausted from the controversial tweeting.

 

[ZachShahan]

Honestly everyone who is losing their sugar and literally selling shares over some twitter drama are making me shake my head.

Don't be stupid!

Everyone lamenting that Elon isn't more like Bezos or Zuck... Get real. Those guys are successful, and basically despicable people in their own ways. Certainly not morally upstanding people. Certainly not Elon. I reiterate; let Elon be Elon.

This stock is going to short squeeze HARD some time in the next 6 months. Remember that SP is lower than it was a YEAR AGO before the 3 was even out. The 3 is a raging success and Q3 is going to meet or exceed all our bullish expectations.

Keep calm and stay focussed. This is seriously about to pay off. I feel that this is obvious.

This guy is not a small fry: Ross Gerber on Twitter

He's also not a bear. He's a strong bull.

When the tweeting is getting to people like this guy, it's a big problem for the stock. Maybe not for the company, but for the stock, and I'm in the camp that the stock price does matter quite a bit for the company as a whole (for various "hard" and "soft" reasons).

 

[HG Wells]

Now that we've solidly crossed below $300, do you think $300 is going to become a barrier on rises from any good news?

Also, any expectations regarding analyst updates in the coming week?

NO at the time of your post we are back above 300 and now have been above 300 for 45 miniutes. Are you on a 15 min delay ?

EDIT this is meant to be humorous.

 

[ggr]

Most of the broader markets are tanking but TSLA is at least recovering a bit. This is positive.

 

[RobStark]

At the current consumption rate, I've read industry reports that there's less than 50 years worth of crude in the ground.

At current prices with current technology.

Increase the prices or increase the tech and the reserves grow.

 

[ZachShahan]

NO at the time of your post we are back above 300 and now have been above 300 for 45 miniutes. Are you on a 15 min delay ?

EDIT this is meant to be humorous.

Seems I was distracted by a certain "market action" thread before getting the question out. Nice to see a strong rise, but seems to be stalling right around $300.

 

[Irishjugg]

At some point, you might wonder when Elon crosses the line and put his personal reputation above the company's interests. In my opinion, he's recently been on the knife-edge. That's to the detriment of most shareholders.

His behavior the past few months on Twitter has been dissappointing but doesn't have material effect on Tesla. I don't require him to be some perfect Jesus figure.

I worry about burnout and that's about the extent of it from a tesla perspective

 

[KarenRei]

I think it's hugely a Twitter issue, imho. I remember a few years ago when he tweeted one of my stories and it stayed on the top of his feed for something like 3 weeks. In a couple of months, only a handful of tweets around that one — all related to his companies. (Mine was about solar power in general.)

He gradually started using Twitter more and more ... and more. Great for press in many regards, but Twitter seems to invite people to be too open and loose with their words — and Elon is already super open and playful. I think these aspects of Twitter attract him, as does his insatiable desire for information. But I think it is absolutely not a safe place for him to play without support at this point. As someone noted, just a handful of people he trusts checking tweets before they go out would make this quarter dramatically different than it's been.

I would NEVER want to kill his candid, open, interactive, crowdsourcing approach to Twitter, but I think it's clear at this point that even if many of us think "let Elon be Elon," large-scale investors are fed up with it and are most likely willing to drop the stock rather than lose their money on some risky tweeting.

As much as I'd like this to not be about market action, my guess is that a large portion of the share price drop we've seen in the past week is from people getting spooked or just exhausted from the controversial tweeting.

Instead of a filter, you know, I think there's a simple solution to this issue that he may even like. And it's very, very simple.

Give a trusted intern (or several trusted interns) his password and have them, 24-7, block trolls and remove troll posts. Removing anyone trying to bait him. Do that and at least 90% of Musk's twitter problems will go away. And he won't have as much in his life making him angry.

 

[ZachShahan]

You can still spend 19.25 minutes on Twitter today. If it makes it easier, you can start liking/retweeting what these familiar faces are tweeting:

Lycanthrope (@AskDrStupid) | Twitter
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) | Twitter
vincent (@vincent13031925) | Twitter
Reciprocity (@Rec1pr0city) | Twitter
David McLeod (@macrockets) | Twitter
MadPolak (@konrad_bilinski) | Twitter
...


And then, one day, before you notice, you'll be writing tweets by yourself... It happened to me...

So many dog pics.

To make closely following and RTing good content from these people, one thing you can do is create a List on Twitter. I just created one with all of these accounts + Bonnie Norman (@bonnienorman) | Twitter

I haven't really used lists before, but will try to watch this list and do my small part.

 

[RobStark]

Interesting, that is either coincidence, or potentially it is suggesting some not yet public "bad news" being traded on, one that would hit all carmakers badly: for example upcoming (bad) tariff news in the NAFTA zone would be such an event.

The potential material bad news for automakers was tariffs or import quotas on cars made in Mexico imported into the US. Most of the global automakers have spent significant amounts in Mexican factories where 90% of the output is for the US market.

The US has already reached a deal with Mexico and Tesla does not manufacture in Mexico.

Tariffs on Mexican made parts remain the same, that is the relevant part to Tesla.


I suppose a trade war could spin out of control with Canada but Tesla exports to Canada have never been that high. For some reason Canadians really seem to like GM PEVs.

 

[juanmedina]

This guy is not a small fry: Ross Gerber on Twitter

He's also not a bear. He's a strong bull.

When the tweeting is getting to people like this guy, it's a big problem for the stock. Maybe not for the company, but for the stock, and I'm in the camp that the stock price does matter quite a bit for the company as a whole (for various "hard" and "soft" reasons).

Why are we still talking about this? Old news.....

 

[SpaceCash]

This guy is not a small fry: Ross Gerber on Twitter

He's also not a bear. He's a strong bull.

When the tweeting is getting to people like this guy, it's a big problem for the stock. Maybe not for the company, but for the stock, and I'm in the camp that the stock price does matter quite a bit for the company as a whole (for various "hard" and "soft" reasons).

I hear you, and I'd give him the exact same advice. I think he's tripping.

 

[elasalle]

I bought some Jun 19 ~ 400 Calls today when SP was around 301.

Can't wait for Sept to kickoff.

remember folks:
Expecting to produce 50-55k Model 3s in Q3; deliveries should exceed that.
We produced 53,339 vehicles in Q2 and delivered 22,319 Model S and Model X vehicles and 18,449 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 40,768 deliveries - 12K vehicles were parked/in transit in Q2 to meet the 200K requirement.

 

[gene]

I am not a tweeter. Made my first tweet that might be good ammunition for you guys defending Tesla on Twitter. Retweet if you like please!

Gene on Twitter