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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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And, I mean, that rule of thumb doesn't work in the ICE space, either.

If it did, the Mitsubishi Mirage, Chevy Spark, and Nissan Versa would be the three best selling vehicles in the US market by far. (All three can be had new for under $10k. Seriously.)
You have to stay within a given bracket. Cars are very out of favor right now regardless of price. Both of my relatives who bought or leased new vehicles in the last two weeks opted for SUV's and came out of cars. While we were at the Mazda dealer Saturday afternoon I watched one used Ford pickup get delivered to a college kid and three couples take home either CX-5 (2) or CX-9 (1) SUVs. My relative also chose a CX-5. So out of 5 deliveries in about 3 hours none were cars. Market stats seem to indicate that is the direction we are headed. That new Mercedes is a perfect indicator. Same with Jaguar, NIO, and BYD in China. SUVs are in the lead now.
 
Today, looks like the island reversal pattern was proven true.

My guess is the slide will stop and price hold still when q3 numbers are released. However, it won't help show the real picture as it will at best meet expectation.

The real picture will show up in the IR where the world learns that the M3 has been selling at higher margin price, hence higher margin. Just like the Model S.
 
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And going back to TSLA. My guess is tomorrow we see an increase. Between the disappointing Mercedes ECQ (up to 200 miles :confused: - what were they thinking?), and with InsideEVs projecting August sales, my guess is that stock will be up. Glad I picked some today - I am a really tiny fish, but taking a bite whenever I can.
That's what you get with technology 8 years behind Tesla.
 
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I have not sold yet but I am afraid of further book losses..
MIke. As long as you did not buy on margin and believe in Tesla, hang in there. You did not indicate a % of loss so I hope we are talking less than 10%. If you are concerned it may fall further buy some put contracts for protection. Think of it as an insurance policy. Next time use a stop loss order. Watch the movement and then buy back in at a later (lower) price. No one says you have to ride each TSLA wave from top to bottom.
 
I wish I just held on to my original plan to buy starting now as you're doing. Buying into this dip is the correct move. I still have powder, but concerned about having too much in one basket. But what a good price though! The fact that I (not alone) was willing to buy Fri at $300 means I (we) should buy even harder now. Nothing relevant has changed, Analyst gradings do not tell me anything.

However, we saw a glimpse of FSD screenshots today. I'm sure it's to defend the stock price as if a notice for us to hang on a bit longer. Then again, I just argued that FSD won't do much that would take any risk - so that will have it's own FUD attack. I'm sure they want FSD out in full only to cause accidents. Ain't going to happen. So instead FUD will make it laughable, and the up/down continues.

Again, I'm trading and defending based on my belief that FSD is more important than profits at this point in time. I think Tesla has just showed this specifically because of the FSD hint today.
I finally got used to the FUD acronym and now I have to deal with the FSD acronym. I am assuming it means Full Self Drive. ENOUGH WITH THE ACRONYMS. EWTA EWTA EWTA EWTA EWTA. Have fun with that one. I believe the thinking goes that the more acronyms you use the smarter people will think you are. EWTA EWTA.
 
Today, looks like the island reversal pattern was proven true.

My guess is the slide will hold when q3 numbers are released. However, it won't help show the real picture as it will at best meet expectation.

The real picture will show up in the IR where the world learns that the M3 has been selling at higher margin price, hence higher margin. Just like the Model S.

You may well be right. I realize that I've fallen victim into thinking the Q3 results will have a big impact. I think what will definitively move the stock will be when more investment firms realize that Tesla is performing -- and that isn't likely to be Q3 or even Q4. Normal people like myself can't hold enough stock to make any impact on the overall stock price, that will come when there is large, long interest.

Which is fine by me: as a long I'm not that worried about results now or even next year. Actually, I'm thinking more about ten to twenty years from now. In the meantime we will have considerable volatility. It is what it is.
 
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Did you really just say that? And you are living in the States where there are the most killer attacks on high schools so you are probably also a killer?

People please, act smarter. Who can Elon in any sense have any clue that this guy is a pedo? It just came out of his mouth and if it's true or not doesn't even matter - Elon is destroying Tesla brand value. However I do believe that Elon is in huge stress and does therefore write these unintelligent statements. This does not mean that Tesla is doing bad - it just means that Elon needs some.vacation and the last weeks were too much for him. He can't handle it anymore and therefore acts with agression.

Since you’re too lazy to look up the facts:


Lots of British and foreign men go here for vacation and to live. You already know what they’re up to with a quick search. I’m sure Elon already has a ton of info on the diver. With that said, I really don’t give a rats arse. Thailand needs to clean up their cities and Elon needs to focus.
 
Living in a certain location doesn't count as evidence.



I don't really care what Mike117's stock position is, I find his points on Elon here to be mirroring my own and those of the people I know (I got emails related to the buzzfeed article going "what the heck is up with Elon"). Mike117 probably lost money in the last drop, and this drop is - in part- due to Elon's actions that cause a percentage of people to lose faith in him. Obviously there are other things that are influencing the stock price, but his actions have been the opposite of inspiring. I would have expected a CEO to have ignored buzzfeed and never sent out this email.


I’m sure Elon already has a ton of info on the diver, likely has investigators on it back then when he sent the tweet. Visit Pattaya and see what it’s really like. Get out of your hole and face the reality of British men who lives in Pattaya.

One lives in the sex capital of the world for its run down beach? Yea...

A quick search on google and YouTube and you can see what this place is all about. I can link a ton of pictures and sights but wouldn’t want to turn this tread into a sex tourism sight.
 
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As far as pertains to the market, what matters IMO is public response to Tesla's FSD. For anyone interested in the details, there is at least one thread devoted to this, but in short Tesla is ahead of its competitors despite Waymo being the darling of the press. This disconnect indicates a future valuation improvement for $TSLA if/when the public sees this and becomes convinced of it, though if Waymo does close this gap the relative improvement will diminish over time.

Are you considering the value add from Rideshare Tesla as people may use this as a way to partially finance a Tesla which could open up new markets even below the Honda Civic or Accord current market? Yes, I do see this eventually happening, but agree it will be many years out, maybe 2025.
 
Incumbents may have an answer to S or X (sometimes only comparable due to similar price) but do not have any competitor to 3.

Again, I'd argue that you need to think beyond the EV market. Tesla has been a successful because it builds great cars the happen to be EVs, not cars who's best feature is that they are EVs. They understand that to have an impact in the industry, fulfill their mission, and live up to their SP, they need to have cars that have mainstream appeal and can hold their own when cross-shopped against comparable models. So, it seems odd to say incumbents don't have a Model 3 competitor when BMW sells some 400K 3-Series annually.
 
Is there any specific reason for today’s drop? It can’t be MB EQC launch, because there wasn’t anything special.
I think a lot of the price action is happening based on the recent Electrek articles of missed deadlines for 6k at the end of August and the absence of a Version 9 software release. Investors are just seeing more of the same old, same old. I also believe the sellers are mostly the funds quietly heading to the exits while selling to the fans. Would not be the first time... Just my guess. They are at least trimming in case of a too small profit or a miss. The Musk reversal may have shaken investor confidence more than first thought.
 

I’m sure Elon already has a ton of info on the diver, likely has investigators on it back then when he sent the tweet. Visit Pattaya and see what it’s really like. Get out of your hole and face the reality of British men who lives in Pattaya.

One lives in the sex capital of the world for its run down beach? Yea...

A quick search on google and YouTube and you can see what this place is all about. I can link a ton of pictures and sights but wouldn’t want to turn this tread into a sex tourism sight.
The bucket of pingpong balls in that piece, nevermind not going to explain.
 
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I’m sure Elon already has a ton of info on the diver, likely has investigators on it back then when he sent the tweet. Visit Pattaya and see what it’s really like. Get out of your hole and face the reality of British men who lives in Pattaya.

One lives in the sex capital of the world for its run down beach? Yea...

Everyone who've been to pattaya knows what's going on there. Sex in Thailand is just everywhere and the tourists created the ping pong show.

Other noteworthy place I've seen is casa blanca, Morroco.

Still, the best answer isn't to swear or cuss. "Let the lawsuit speak for itself." Should be default CEO Obfuscation.
 
The cave diver situation is a lose-lose for Musk and Tesla. At this point I don't think it is about whether Elon is right or wrong, it is the perception of bad judgement and a CEO who erratic. Elon needs to see he cant win here and being proven right is no benefit to himself or his company. The best move for him is to simply drop it, right or wrong there is nothing good that can come from proving this guys is/isn't a pedo.
 
You have to stay within a given bracket. Cars are very out of favor right now regardless of price. Both of my relatives who bought or leased new vehicles in the last two weeks opted for SUV's and came out of cars. While we were at the Mazda dealer Saturday afternoon I watched one used Ford pickup get delivered to a college kid and three couples take home either CX-5 (2) or CX-9 (1) SUVs. My relative also chose a CX-5. So out of 5 deliveries in about 3 hours none were cars. Market stats seem to indicate that is the direction we are headed. That new Mercedes is a perfect indicator. Same with Jaguar, NIO, and BYD in China. SUVs are in the lead now.

Thats what most superbowl commercials over the last years have been about, hammering into peoples heads that they need SUVs. Word of mouth on how awesome the Model 3 is may fix that for some, i.e. the 100,000 families that get test drives from their kin over thanksgiving and their friends. The rest has to wait for Model Y and Pickup Trucks or have the cost of gasolene become a factor, which is on the horizon as well.
 
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I thought a scatterplot of analysts' TSLA targets vs their historical performance (Tiprank's rating) might be interesting. Take a look.

77% of the analysts in the top half of analyst performance are neutral to bullish on Tesla at $300.
100% of the analysts in the bottom half of analyst performance are bearish.

View attachment 331854

View attachment 331853

Those were all the recommendations I could find (Tiprank doesn't show the latest 5 but I found 2 or 3 of them). If anyone has any more I can add them to the plot.
You should rank them again with most recent date first. Perma Bull Ben Kallo being one of only two "buy"s is interesting.
 
Tesla could start a their own version of turo right now. It would accelerate reservations and revenues. Precursor to tesla network.

Same goes for Lyft/Uber - why wait for self driving, once the 35k model 3 with longer durability and less maintenance (and less frequent total replacement) cost than their gas counterparts are out, there will be plenty of takers.

Neither Uber nor Lyft have an electric category, probably because they are financed in part by anti-electric money like KSA money through softbank and/or GM. Instead Lyft does 'gas discount' promotions etc.
 
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