TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[N5329K]

A damming headline: https://jalopnik.com/the-2020-mercedes-benz-eqcs-200-mile-range-is-a-disappo-1828812912

80kw pack and 200 miles is what you get when you electrify a box.
Robin

 

[Singuy]

80kw pack and 200 miles is what you get when you electrify a box.
Robin

And this is not coming out until 2019? What happens if the Model X 2.0 carries a 150kw packs with 500+ miles of range and 0-60 in 2.5sec? Ever since they debuted the roadster with a 200kw pack, I feel like the powertrain competition was already over.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think a lot of the price action is happening based on the recent Electrek articles of missed deadlines for 6k at the end of August and the absence of a Version 9 software release. Investors are just seeing more of the same old, same old. I also believe the sellers are mostly the funds quietly heading to the exits while selling to the fans. Would not be the first time... Just my guess. They are at least trimming in case of a too small profit or a miss. The Musk reversal may have shaken investor confidence more than first thought.

Yes, no investors wanted to take Tesla private at at least $420/share. Zero investor confidence.

 

[JRP3]

Many of us think it will be a higher performance version of the new roadster.

Not even that apparently Tesla Roadster makes car show debut at Grand Basel

 

[Krugerrand]

I miss steak

Steak is on its way. Then we’ll find out that nobody cares about it either. They’ll be into tuna fish at that point, or the other white meat.

 

[EVNow]

And this is not coming out until 2019? What happens if the Model X 2.0 carries a 150kw packs with 500+ miles of range and 0-60 in 2.5sec? Ever since they debuted the roadster with a 200kw pack, I feel like the powertrain competition was already over.

Do you mean 150kWh ?

 

[Causalien]

i think @Causalien meant q3 del/prod numbers not making a big ark price impact.

i don’t think he meant q3 earnings release in that context.

correct me if i’m wrong..that’s how i took his point, which i thought was a good one.

Ya this ^

I find myself thinking "but that's exactly what I said" often. Especially so recently on the ai hardware debate.

Apparently I am very hard to understand it seems.

 

[beachbum77]

Yes, no investors wanted to take Tesla private at least $420/share. Zero investor confidence.

We both know those who wanted to take it private just wanted control of the company. Musk should have known that all along. No one would pay $25-30 billion to buy shares, assume the debt, invest $billions more for growth, and leave Musk in charge. IMHO that was the condition that killed the deal. I think Musk realized the institutions might not back him to remain CEO. For Musk, it is now "survive or go down fighting". The Saudis might have wanted him out as CEO, maybe even Chairman too. They just never got the chance to give him their conditions for a deal. The Saudis reportedly want controlling interest at Lucid. Why would Tesla have been any different?

 

[Krugerrand]

One outcome of 2008 settlements between FIs and Justice was that FIs will install a firewall between their analysis and consulting departments. Don't know how strictly these things are followed, but there shouldn't be any info flowing between the consultants Tesla hired and the analysts.

Pfft! And pigs fly.

 

[humbaba]

Ya this ^

I find myself thinking "but that's exactly what I said" often. Especially so recently on the ai hardware debate.

Apparently I am very hard to understand it seems.

I wouldn't say that you're hard to understand, but I immediately went "whoops" and realized I was erroneously assuming too much impact from good news. Of course you're right that the earnings call is more impactful than preliminary reports. But either way its important to not get too carried away. For one thing, if the response *is* muted then it is more of a blow.

Not saying there are anything wrong with your expectations, I'm just trying to keep my own in line.

 

[EVNow]

Pfft! And pigs fly.

Possibly - or not.

I've worked in companies where you wouldn't believe (if you are on the outside) how much red tape existed around compliance.

Probably - by not vigorously prosecuting 2008 crimes, Obama let the same problems continue.

ps : While criminal behavior is possible, we don't know whether this is the norm in GS.

 

[RobStark]

It's only USA and to some degree Canada that care about trucks. No one else in the world. They don't even get it.
That's less than 20% of world market and about 50% of current Tesla sales.
SUVs are popular everywhere.

Full size trucks and full sized truck based SUVs are popular in Mexico.

Midsize trucks are popular in Australia,Thailand,Mexico... well pretty much most of Latin America.

A fair number of American full size trucks are imported to Australia and converted to RHD.

The biggest reasons Australians buy midsize and not full sized trucks is the cost to fuel them. Not a significant issue with electric full size trucks.

Ford just started selling F150 Raptors in China. We shall see....

 

[Krugerrand]

We both know those who wanted to take it private just wanted control of the company. Musk should have known that all along. No one would pay $25-30 billion to buy shares, assume the debt, invest $billions more for growth, and leave Musk in charge. IMHO that was the condition that killed the deal. I think Musk realized the institutions might not back him to remain CEO. For Musk, it is now "survive or go down fighting". The Saudis might have wanted him out as CEO, maybe even Chairman too. They just never got the chance to give him their conditions for a deal. The Saudis reportedly want controlling interest at Lucid. Why would Tesla have been any different?

No we don’t. It was suggested/implied by the media that investors wanted a certain amount of control/there’d be strings attached. People familiar with the thinking of certain investors said...

Nowhere did you ever suggest prior to the events in question anything about this, so posting now as though ‘duh, that was a given’ is complete bs.

What we know as FACT is that a lot of retail investors weren’t going to be able to go private because of a set of laws currently in affect and Elon didn’t want to force out those people who have supported and stuck with Tesla through all the bs you and others have constantly bombarded Elon and Tesla with.

 

[neroden]

The cave diver situation is a lose-lose for Musk and Tesla. At this point I don't think it is about whether Elon is right or wrong, it is the perception of bad judgement and a CEO who erratic. Elon needs to see he cant win here and being proven right is no benefit to himself or his company. The best move for him is to simply drop it, right or wrong there is nothing good that can come from proving this guys is/isn't a pedo.

Precisely right. I'm not sure how to communicate that with Musk -- basically how to tell him "it doesn't matter, there are a million pedophiles in Thailand and you shouldn't waste your time thinking about it, stay focused and prevent global warming from killing everyone".

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR NOTICE:

Anticitizen
Firebird Alpha
Sundaymorning
Causalien
AZRI11
djgarrett
Kallagtunet

All are on a 10-day ban. YOU FOLKS JUST CAN’T HELP YOURSELVES, can you?

A banned topic is a banned topic. “But I just gotta gotta gotta get my two cents in” doesn’t work here.

If I missed some - which is likely - consider yourselves lucky. And, as in the world of Investing, that does not mean “smart”.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tomorrow's InsideEVs Model 3 guesstimates will be interesting.

Tomorrow's report won't include Tesla numbers. Those will "continue through the end of the week".

"August 2018 EV SALES will be reported on Wednesday, September 5, 2018, beginning with Toyota Prius Prime and Nissan LEAF sales at 6:30-7:30 AM PT (9:30-10:30 AM ET) and continuing with Ford and other automakers into the remainder of the week."​

Note: August numbers are already out for the following non-US manufacturers:

• Toyota Prius Prime 2071
• Nissan LEAF 1315
• BMW i3 (BEV + REx) 418
• Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 366
• Volkswagen e-Golf 32
• smart ED 108
• BMW i8 67
• Mercedes B250e 1
• 2018 U.S. Sales Totals 4,378

 

[neroden]

There is something that people here should know, as to WHY Elon Musk could be reacting in a very emotional manner to the diver:

Inside the Complicated Relationship Between Elon Musk and His Estranged Father, Errol Musk

“Elon Musk—the billionaire co-founder of highly-influential companies such as Tesla and SpaceX—has rarely opened up about his relationship with his estranged father, Errol Musk, who recently made headlines when he announced he had a baby with his stepdaughter—who is 40 years his junior.”

Elon Musk told biographer Ashlee Vance that Errol was evil, but didn’t go into specifics.

It’s not a stretch to see why Elon would be triggered, if the allegations against the cave diver have a reasonable basis in reality.

Yucko. That would sensitize me too.

Unfortunately, this does mean Musk is more likely to make incorrect accusations because he's sensitized.

He should have stuck to calling Unsworth "sus"(picious), which is on firm ground.

 

[gringotuanis]

I think a lot of the price action is happening based on the recent Electrek articles of missed deadlines for 6k at the end of August and the absence of a Version 9 software release. Investors are just seeing more of the same old, same old. I also believe the sellers are mostly the funds quietly heading to the exits while selling to the fans. Would not be the first time... Just my guess. They are at least trimming in case of a too small profit or a miss. The Musk reversal may have shaken investor confidence more than first thought.

Musk mental instability is mostly what's hurting the stock I think. All was going well after Q2 earnings until all of Musk's comments. That narrative of mental issues has gained ALOT of traction and he himself isn't helping it much yet. Musk really shouldn't be sending out emails or anything on these bizarre issues. Ppl will find or share it as Tesla is under heavy attack.

 

[30seconds]

What I don’t like right now The is the chaos in the delivery centers. It seems fairly clear that the volume step ups were not well anticipated outside of a few key centers. Or at least there is no rapid “fix it” team being deployed to rescue problematic locations.

Lots of stories regarding 2, 3 or 4 failed delivery attempts because a particular center is a disaster zone.

Lots of customer bad will being created instead of what should be an incredible achievement

 

[Zaxxon]

Tomorrow's report won't include Tesla numbers. Those will "continue through the end of the week"

That largely refers to manufacturers who report later. Tesla doesn't report, so InsideEVs usually puts their guestimates up when they start listing the other companies.