This is basically a variant of the "negative working capital" FUD. A quick summary:
- "Working capital" is assets minus liabilities and various definitions exist to calculate it.
- The GAAP definition is pretty strict that requires Tesla to count many 'possible' probabilistic liabilities that normally don't turn into real liabilities, and also don't allow them to recognize Tesla's most valuable assets:
- For example AutoPilot, probably worth well over 10 billion dollars, is worth zero according to the GAAP working capital definition. Same for brand recognition, or the network value of the Supercharger network: it's only accounted as the sum of real estate, not the infrastructure and franchise value, etc.
- On the liabilities side, reserves/warranties Tesla has set aside with conservative over-allocation, repurchase obligations it has on older Model S's are all accounted as 100% liabilities, while in reality a lot of these liabilities just 'go away' once the time span they are valid for pass and they are de-recognized.
- Furthermore, during the Model 3 expansion Tesla has a rapidly increasing inventory: started the year with $2.2b, in Q1 it was $2.5 billion in Q2 $3.3 billion. This is representative of a higher number of cars 'in transit' across quarter boundaries: ~3.3k at year's begin, ~6.1k at the end of Q1, ~15k at the end of Q2. This artificially decreases working capital: inventory is recognized as an asset only on a cost basis, even if it's Model S/3/X's a day away from delivery. Liabilities to suppliers and customer deposits are 100% recognized on the other hand. So by increasing their inventory Tesla is artificially decreasing 'working capital' - but that's both temporary and largely an accounting fiction.
- As a fourth factor, Tesla has invested over 3 billion dollars into the Model 3 expansion, which required heavy frontal payments: tooling and equipment suppliers want to be paid regardless of where Tesla is in the Model 3 ramp-up. This debases working capital by another 3+ billion dollars: those payments are going to be a drain on Tesla's cash until the end of 2018, while the actual income from the greatly expanded manufacturing capacity only began last quarter.
- By the GAAP definition Tesla has negative working capital of somewhere around -$2b right now. For a regular business like a bog standard department store that would normally spell trouble: more debt than assets, trouble rolling forward short-term debt, etc.
- For high-tech companies and for manufacturing companies that are at the apex of their capex spending these rigid definitions of 'working capital' are accounting fictions to the level of ridiculousness:
- For example Apple has a current working capital of around 30 billion dollars only, while it's a trillion dollar company. (!)
- Amazon, another company that has crossed 1 trillion dollars in market capitalization, has a current working capital of only 1.8 billion dollars by some estimates. (!!)
- Does anyone with a functioning brain truly believe that Apple, if they raised 30 billion dollars of debt, would get into trouble due to slipping into negative working capital territory? Or that Amazon would get into trouble by raising just 3 billion dollars of debt?
- So the whole 'Negative Working Capital' thesis of the shorts is just another proof that they don't know high-tech, don't know valuations and don't know accounting - in short: shorts on Twitter know absolutely nothing.
- A Mechanic Lien is basically just a technical accounting expression, a guarantee used by lenders to secure short term loans - to make sure they get priority before more speculative long term loans. A department store can use it against their valuable building on Main Street to secure a loan to renovate their building. Tesla has used similar loan constructs to temporarily raise cash, secured by their factory buildings. This expression is used by shorts to sound as if they knew what they were talking about, and to unify the 'negative working capital' FUD with the 'bankwuptcy' FUD: they are passive-aggressively insinuating that Tesla is on the verge of bankwuptcy even in the tweets where they are not saying that explicitly.
- Tesla has no trouble raising cash, and recently extended their short term lines of credit to 2020, because banks actually know all of what I've written above. What matters isn't the absolute level of working capital which is highly sensitive to high-tech valuation, but the expected balance of cash payments for the next 1-2 years - and those are excellent for Tesla.
Nevertheless shorts are going to use that kind of FUD, and to counter them when they are using it on Twitter just point out the sheer ridiculousness of it:
- Ask them whether they think that Amazon, a trillion dollars company, with just 1.8 billion dollars of 'working capital', is in danger of bankwuptcy? Here's a link to an estimate of Amazon's working capital. Note, I actually think it's a bogus estimate - but it's out there.
- Confront them how ridiculous it is for their definition of 'working capital' to assign zero asset value to the SuperCharger network, to Tesla's brand value and customer base, to AutoPilot and Tesla's new AI Chip that is 10 times faster than the Nvidia solution and to the Gigafactory technologies overall. (Not to mention a ton of other Tesla intangible assets, worth billions.) I.e. Tesla's 'high-tech enterprise value' is largely off the balance sheet for Tesla and is not recognized as a basis for 'working capital' on a GAAP basis.
- Point out that Tesla is right now paying more than $600m of cash per quarter for the Model 3 equipment. Those payments will continue for Q3 and Q4 2018, but in 2019 they will decrease significantly, while cash flow will literally explode with that additional contribution. Working capital will be strongly positive in 2019 even by GAAP standards which values most of Tesla's real assets as zero.
- Point out the fact that Tesla working capital has already improved by about 300 million dollars in Q2 and is expected to improve by another billion dollars in Q3 alone.
Note that the managing working capital and cash flow actually matters a lot to the health of a business, be it high-tech or not, what
doesn't matter is this largely fictitious passing from "positive" into "negative" that shorts pretend happened with Tesla as they ramped up Model 3 production.
Summary: the 'Tesla negative working capital' short thesis is basically a confidence trick: the sophisticated, neutral sounding argument is in reality based on an accounting fiction that is
seriously detached from reality not just for Tesla but for absolutely every other high-tech company on the west coast.