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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Possibly - or not.

I've worked in companies where you wouldn't believe (if you are on the outside) how much red tape existed around compliance.

Probably - by not vigorously prosecuting 2008 crimes, Obama let the same problems continue.

ps : While criminal behavior is possible, we don't know whether this is the norm in GS.

I’m just going to go with logic. You can always count on people to behave like people. Unless you can point to some sort of evidence that suggests a leaf was turned over after 2008 and everyone ‘there’ became model human beings...
 
Tesla Semi comes first anyways, that is a key strategic item that will bring a lot of powerpack and solar business along with it. Tesla Semi = Trojan Horse uitility vehicle. "Here are the demonstrated svaings of your megachargers with peak shaving advantage via solar and powerpacks. Imagine having that same cost advantage for all of your your industrial power needs"

I think a tesla version of the F150 would sell in the millions too, as would the Model Y. May overall be a less crowded segment.
Tough to say there, Tesla semi would be more disruptive probably ...my only hesitation with your conclusion is that the M3 and Model Y are based on the exact same vehicle platform which would make the Model Y a much more logical next step since it would be much easier to build the lines for.
 
Precisely right. I'm not sure how to communicate that with Musk -- basically how to tell him "it doesn't matter, there are a million pedophiles in Thailand and you shouldn't waste your time thinking about it, stay focused and prevent global warming from killing everyone".

I am sure there are people close to him already told him that. I guess this is him lash out because he just can't take it that people treat his good will like that. Even the diver who asked him for help does not back him up. I would be really pissed if I were him.

Well, I guess Elon is not as mature as we would like.
 
No we don’t. It was suggested/implied by the media that investors wanted a certain amount of control/there’d be strings attached. People familiar with the thinking of certain investors said...

Nowhere did you ever suggest prior to the events in question say anything about this, so posting now as though ‘duh, that was a given’ is complete bs.

What we know as FACT is that a lot of retail investors weren’t going to be able to go private because of a set of laws currently in affect and Elon didn’t want to force out those people who have supported and stuck with Tesla through all the bs you and others have constantly bombarded Elon and Tesla with.
MBA 101... Rule #1. No one EVER puts up $millions, much less $billions without conditions. That is a given in the LBO/EBO "go private" game.

If Elon was really concerned about his investors he would stop tweeting nonsense that hurts the SP, and start acting like the CEO of a $50+ billion dollar enterprise. That would give FUDsters a lot less ammunition to write negative stories.
 
What I don’t like right now The is the chaos in the delivery centers. It seems fairly clear that the volume step ups were not well anticipated outside of a few key centers. Or at least there is no rapid “fix it” team being deployed to rescue problematic locations.

Lots of stories regarding 2, 3 or 4 failed delivery attempts because a particular center is a disaster zone.

Lots of customer bad will being created instead of what should be an incredible achievement

In my personal opinion, the heightened U.S. delivery will be temporary, as Tesla fulfill their PROMISE to rush as many cars as possible to game the tax incentive deadline.

Starting from Jan 2019 a significant portion of the production will be shipped overseas. Delivery in U.S. will drop. I don't think it is wise to fully provision the delivery system for a temporary peak.
 
What I don’t like right now The is the chaos in the delivery centers. It seems fairly clear that the volume step ups were not well anticipated outside of a few key centers. Or at least there is no rapid “fix it” team being deployed to rescue problematic locations.

Lots of stories regarding 2, 3 or 4 failed delivery attempts because a particular center is a disaster zone.

Lots of customer bad will being created instead of what should be an incredible achievement
One thing that is helping is that once the people finally get their cars the "bad" seems to fade away. Whether that will continue remains to be seen. But the entire delivery structure needs an overhaul. Ex. Why is someone in CA or NV setting the delivery dates before the vehicles have even arrived? Let the DC people do that once the car arrives and can be inspected for flaws or damage. That right there would eliminate 90% of the canceled deliveries. The ISA's should drop off the radar once they confirm the vehicle is shipped. From there all reporting to the customer should pass to the DC personnel.
 
In my personal opinion, the heightened U.S. delivery will be temporary, as Tesla fulfill their PROMISE to rush as many cars as possible to game the tax incentive deadline.

Starting from Jan 2019 a significant portion of the production will be shipped overseas. Delivery in U.S. will drop. I don't think it is wise to fully provision the delivery system for a temporary peak.
No one seems to be saying they should provision it that way. Tesla set up a temporary arrangement in Toronto to deliver hundreds of cars a day in June. Exact numbers were never revealed but it got the job done. People came from hours away to take delivery in time for the $14,000 rebate. Tesla seems to have done something similar in Vancouver, BC. That could easily be duplicated with roving teams traveling to cities in the U.S. on a set schedule to handle the DC overflow. Many of the staff in Toronto were temp hires. It just takes leadership, a plan, and lots of coordination.
 
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MBA 101... Rule #1. No one EVER puts up $millions, much less $billions without conditions. That is a given in the LBO/EBO "go private" game.

If Elon was really concerned about his investors he would stop tweeting nonsense that hurts the SP, and start acting like the CEO of a $50+ billion dollar enterprise.

No one said there wouldn’t be conditions. Conditions doesn’t equal control.

Don’t even try that bs argument. Elon has been clear from day one to all investors. If you are concerned about short term SP, don’t invest in Tesla. If you don’t have the stomach for volatility, don’t invest in Tesla. If you don’t like how he/Tesla does things, take your money and invest it somewhere else.

The fact Tesla is already a $50B enterprise has been a boon for any investor who bought and held. A lot of millionaires have already been made - long before you showed up here.

The fact he gave up his desire to take Tesla private because of retail investors not being able to follow shows he cares about them. Dozens of people wrote in this thread and other threads all torn up they wouldn’t be able to hold their shares in a private Tesla. How quickly we forget the angst and anger. And despite changing his mind leaving him wide open for more ridicule and abuse he still did it.

I have no problem with Elon being Tesla CEO sometimes and Elon being regular people sometimes. I don’t expect him to be in CEO mode 24/7. That’s a ridiculous expectation. That others do is their problem, not his.

No one is being forced to invest in Tesla. If you don’t like non-CEO Elon and believe he’s affecting you negatively, then sell and be a happy camper instead of wallowing in a bunch of toxic anger because it’s not going your way and you can’t control the situation.

As a long term retail investor, I’m happy with CEO Elon and with but a few exceptions (none of which have happened), I don’t care what regular people Elon does. No, I don’t care he’s having a spat with some guy who does jerk just as good as anyone else. That you and others want to run with that and make it about Tesla is a reflection of your inner conflating jerk. And before you try and twist what I’ve posted, I’m not condoning or supporting certain behaviors, nor am I expressing an opinion on the matter in general. The latter I keep to myself.
 
One thing that is helping is that once the people finally get their cars the "bad" seems to fade away. Whether that will continue remains to be seen.

It’s like you’re new here or something. There have been occasional less than ideal delivery experiences since Model S over 6 years ago. And look, people still buying Teslas, optioning them out, upgrading, selling to friends and family etc... I’d say that’s more than enough evidence and no need to wonder what will continue to happen.

Here’s an interesting fact for you, people have been having bad car buying experiences via the current dealership model for DECADES, yet people still buy cars from dealerships. Imagine that.
 
Please sell your shares and don’t come back you immature pimple!

Have you read Elons Mail? This is in my perspective not normal any more from a CEO and Chairman of a huge public company. Who does he believe he is? He destroyed shareholder value and is not e even caring about it or apologizing and now a new great mail story? Are you kidding me... I really hope this is not true, otherwise I guess he will not be our CEO for very much longer as he seems out of mind.
 
This is basically a variant of the "negative working capital" FUD. A quick summary:
  • "Working capital" is assets minus liabilities and various definitions exist to calculate it.
  • The GAAP definition is pretty strict that requires Tesla to count many 'possible' probabilistic liabilities that normally don't turn into real liabilities, and also don't allow them to recognize Tesla's most valuable assets:
    • For example AutoPilot, probably worth well over 10 billion dollars, is worth zero according to the GAAP working capital definition. Same for brand recognition, or the network value of the Supercharger network: it's only accounted as the sum of real estate, not the infrastructure and franchise value, etc.
    • On the liabilities side, reserves/warranties Tesla has set aside with conservative over-allocation, repurchase obligations it has on older Model S's are all accounted as 100% liabilities, while in reality a lot of these liabilities just 'go away' once the time span they are valid for pass and they are de-recognized.
    • Furthermore, during the Model 3 expansion Tesla has a rapidly increasing inventory: started the year with $2.2b, in Q1 it was $2.5 billion in Q2 $3.3 billion. This is representative of a higher number of cars 'in transit' across quarter boundaries: ~3.3k at year's begin, ~6.1k at the end of Q1, ~15k at the end of Q2. This artificially decreases working capital: inventory is recognized as an asset only on a cost basis, even if it's Model S/3/X's a day away from delivery. Liabilities to suppliers and customer deposits are 100% recognized on the other hand. So by increasing their inventory Tesla is artificially decreasing 'working capital' - but that's both temporary and largely an accounting fiction.
    • As a fourth factor, Tesla has invested over 3 billion dollars into the Model 3 expansion, which required heavy frontal payments: tooling and equipment suppliers want to be paid regardless of where Tesla is in the Model 3 ramp-up. This debases working capital by another 3+ billion dollars: those payments are going to be a drain on Tesla's cash until the end of 2018, while the actual income from the greatly expanded manufacturing capacity only began last quarter.
  • By the GAAP definition Tesla has negative working capital of somewhere around -$2b right now. For a regular business like a bog standard department store that would normally spell trouble: more debt than assets, trouble rolling forward short-term debt, etc.
  • For high-tech companies and for manufacturing companies that are at the apex of their capex spending these rigid definitions of 'working capital' are accounting fictions to the level of ridiculousness:
    • For example Apple has a current working capital of around 30 billion dollars only, while it's a trillion dollar company. (!)
    • Amazon, another company that has crossed 1 trillion dollars in market capitalization, has a current working capital of only 1.8 billion dollars by some estimates. (!!)
  • Does anyone with a functioning brain truly believe that Apple, if they raised 30 billion dollars of debt, would get into trouble due to slipping into negative working capital territory? Or that Amazon would get into trouble by raising just 3 billion dollars of debt?
  • So the whole 'Negative Working Capital' thesis of the shorts is just another proof that they don't know high-tech, don't know valuations and don't know accounting - in short: shorts on Twitter know absolutely nothing.
  • A Mechanic Lien is basically just a technical accounting expression, a guarantee used by lenders to secure short term loans - to make sure they get priority before more speculative long term loans. A department store can use it against their valuable building on Main Street to secure a loan to renovate their building. Tesla has used similar loan constructs to temporarily raise cash, secured by their factory buildings. This expression is used by shorts to sound as if they knew what they were talking about, and to unify the 'negative working capital' FUD with the 'bankwuptcy' FUD: they are passive-aggressively insinuating that Tesla is on the verge of bankwuptcy even in the tweets where they are not saying that explicitly.
  • Tesla has no trouble raising cash, and recently extended their short term lines of credit to 2020, because banks actually know all of what I've written above. What matters isn't the absolute level of working capital which is highly sensitive to high-tech valuation, but the expected balance of cash payments for the next 1-2 years - and those are excellent for Tesla.
Nevertheless shorts are going to use that kind of FUD, and to counter them when they are using it on Twitter just point out the sheer ridiculousness of it:
  • Ask them whether they think that Amazon, a trillion dollars company, with just 1.8 billion dollars of 'working capital', is in danger of bankwuptcy? Here's a link to an estimate of Amazon's working capital. Note, I actually think it's a bogus estimate - but it's out there.
  • Confront them how ridiculous it is for their definition of 'working capital' to assign zero asset value to the SuperCharger network, to Tesla's brand value and customer base, to AutoPilot and Tesla's new AI Chip that is 10 times faster than the Nvidia solution and to the Gigafactory technologies overall. (Not to mention a ton of other Tesla intangible assets, worth billions.) I.e. Tesla's 'high-tech enterprise value' is largely off the balance sheet for Tesla and is not recognized as a basis for 'working capital' on a GAAP basis.
  • Point out that Tesla is right now paying more than $600m of cash per quarter for the Model 3 equipment. Those payments will continue for Q3 and Q4 2018, but in 2019 they will decrease significantly, while cash flow will literally explode with that additional contribution. Working capital will be strongly positive in 2019 even by GAAP standards which values most of Tesla's real assets as zero.
  • Point out the fact that Tesla working capital has already improved by about 300 million dollars in Q2 and is expected to improve by another billion dollars in Q3 alone.
Note that the managing working capital and cash flow actually matters a lot to the health of a business, be it high-tech or not, what doesn't matter is this largely fictitious passing from "positive" into "negative" that shorts pretend happened with Tesla as they ramped up Model 3 production.

Summary: the 'Tesla negative working capital' short thesis is basically a confidence trick: the sophisticated, neutral sounding argument is in reality based on an accounting fiction that is seriously detached from reality not just for Tesla but for absolutely every other high-tech company on the west coast.
This post confuses me. While it is late and I don’t have time to go over every detail, some things jumped out at me:

Working capital is current assets minus current liabilities, not assets minus liabilities, as stated above, which is the definition of net worth; two very different measurements.

How would the value of Auto Pilot affect working capital? Is AP considered a liquid asset? Will it convert to cash in one year or less? Is it part of inventory?

Working capital has to do with how much cash and short term assets a company has on hand to meet short term liabilities coming due. It has nothing to do with the market value of a company, hence, AAPL’s trillion dollar market valuation is not related to its current WC position. Sure, it could raise cash, but future possibilities are not present in balance sheet analysis since the balance sheet is a snapshot of the financial condition of a company as of a specific date.

Mechanics Liens are not just accounting expressions and they are not used by lenders! They are used by contractors and subs to secure payment. Lenders are alarmed by Mechanics Liens because they take priority of lien and threaten lenders’ secured rights. Most arise and are satisfied in the normal course of business, but a lender will not lend, refinance, modify or amend with ML’s present because they can’t perfect their lien. Obviously when a company is seeking financing for expansion, ML’s can have a negative impact on the process.

Kate
 
In my personal opinion, the heightened U.S. delivery will be temporary, as Tesla fulfill their PROMISE to rush as many cars as possible to game the tax incentive deadline.

Starting from Jan 2019 a significant portion of the production will be shipped overseas. Delivery in U.S. will drop. I don't think it is wise to fully provision the delivery system for a temporary peak.


It may be a temporary peak but it will have lasting negative impact. A bad experience is a bad experience, no excuses.

When people ask these customers about their Teslas it will now come with a nightmare story about their delivery.

They could have temporarily staffed up, they could have used a best practice learning center, a dedicated fix-it team, etc. What they haven’t done is solve the delivery issue after months of bad reports.
 
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This post confuses me. While it is late and I don’t have time to go over every detail, some things jumped out at me:

Working capital is current assets minus current liabilities, not assets minus liabilities, as stated above, which is the definition of net worth; two very different measurements.

How would the value of Auto Pilot affect working capital? Is AP considered a liquid asset? Will it convert to cash in one year or less? Is it part of inventory?

Intangibles like AutoPilot can almost certainly not be categorized as 'liquid assets'. Could they be borrowed against in practice, if needed, on short notice? Certainly. Does Tesla need to borrow against intangibles: they don't need to, because they have open credit lines they can utilize and they have other fixed assets they could still use as collateral - but most importantly, there's a significant amount of cash flow coming from operations, starting this quarter.

Working capital has to do with how much cash and short term assets a company has on hand to meet short term liabilities coming due. It has nothing to do with the market value of a company, hence, AAPL’s trillion dollar market valuation is not related to its current WC position. Sure, it could raise cash, but future possibilities are not present in balance sheet analysis since the balance sheet is a snapshot of the financial condition of a company as of a specific date.

The point I tried to make there is that both Apple and Amazon are trillion dollar companies with a fraction of a working capital. Does this in any way reflect negatively on their creditworthiness or on their ability to pay? It doesn't (not the least because they are cash flow positive) - yet Tesla shorts are making that argument in Tesla's context and are unwilling to recognize that Tesla is going to become cash flow positive in Q3.

The other point I tried to make is that for Tesla significant categories in current assets are under-valued and significant liabilities that are over-valued, which in itself creates an artificial working capital imbalance in itself.

Mechanics Liens are not just accounting expressions and they are not used by lenders! They are used by contractors and subs to secure payment. Lenders are alarmed by Mechanics Liens because they take priority of lien and threaten lenders’ secured rights. Most arise and are satisfied in the normal course of business, but a lender will not lend, refinance, modify or amend with ML’s present because they can’t perfect their lien. Obviously when a company is seeking financing for expansion, ML’s can have a negative impact on the process.

Kate

You are right, my description mis-characterizes them - but my essential point remains: ML's are used as part of the continued smear campaign against Tesla: there is probably nothing Tesla can do to prevent a subcontractor they have a dispute with from filing a mechanic's lien based on work performed or equipment installed - Tesla did 'scrub the barnacles' in Q2 after all.

The total outstanding amount in dispute with ML's is less than 10 million dollars...
 
I have this feeling that TSLA bulls have misplaced expectations on the share price and that is the cause for much of the angst. Every time the share price falls a bit, people here say, this is the lowest it can go, I am getting my dry powder, etc. I dont think markets work that way. The share price can swing wildly and no number is too low or too high for a stock like TSLA.
 
If Elon was really concerned about his investors he would stop tweeting nonsense that hurts the SP, and start acting like the CEO of a $50+ billion dollar enterprise. That would give FUDsters a lot less ammunition to write negative stories.
Very good statement which brings it to the point. I wonder why Noone ever thought about the reasons why he is doing all of this:

-NYT interview crying about having no time for family
- Aggression against nonsense (pedo story)
- his use of words

This all does in my opinion just clarify that this guy is on huge stress, whatever may be the cause of this stress is up in the air (failed going private, production hell missed targets, Sec investigating, loss of his crazy girlfriend, loss of battle against shorts, no free time, competition, missing targets and promises, personal financial situation, loosing of trust by investors ).

To me it is clear some of the above are true I just hope Tesla is doing good.
 
Thursday Elon Will be on the Joe Rogan podcast :)

Elon Musk on Twitter

This is potentially very significant news beyond the podcast itself, because back in June Elon indicated that he'd only have time for the Joe Rogan interview after Model 3 production reaches a 5k/week sustained rate:


"A lot of people whose judgment I respect have suggested this. Sounds like a good idea. Will do so after Model 3 production reaches 5k/week steady."
Apparently this must have happened in the recent past. Maybe he'll talk about this in the podcast.
 
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