TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SpudLime]

New rule suggestion that perhaps get passed if enough likes....

If a poster posts more than 10 times in one day and also has more than > 100 total dislikes (in same one day time period) by at least 10 people - they get put on suspension for 10 days. This way - we avoid trolls pissing everywhere we read trying to insert FUD and misinformation to others.

I have been a moderator/admin of many forums over the years. From my experience, what you suggest as well as some of the others is imperfect. I am even on a self moderating forum where a number of dislikes/reports automatically hide the offending post and if the user gets enough hidden posts they are banned for a week and the 2nd time banned permanently. All have its pros in cons. Unfortunately, the best method is to find a moderator who can dedicate the time and use the human factor.

A forum is owned, therefore can set the rules as they see fit. Including banning folks for whatever reason they see fit.

Just my $0.02

 

[bhtooefr]

I'm personally of the opinion that such activity (dislikes and/or ignores) shouldn't automatically suspend a user except in extreme situations, but should automatically notify a moderator that there may be a problem here.

 

[SpudLime]

I can attest to the “unlock the wallet” as well. Model 3 is THE most expensive car we have ever purchased. Not because we couldn’t afford an expensive car before, but because we saw no value is anything other than a typical accord or Camry. We did have an SUV when kids were younger which was 45k with upgrades, that was in 2003. Our incomes have more than doubled since then, but we would still never have shelled out 55k for anything other than a Tesla.

Based on my simple reading of the forums and reddit, this seems to be the common factor. Unless you had cash you didnt mind throwing around, most families bought what was economical for their family situation. If they found a lower priced car fit their needs, then that was what was purchased. When you add the factors of what the family needs, the pure joy of having a vehicle that inspires you every time you drive it, its much better for the environment, and its exciting to be a part of something that is tangible in changing the planet. Its magic that the higher price and dealing with the QC reliability issues some folks have, seems worth the reward.

In short, my family would have never thought of paying over 100K for a car. But then we drove one and magically my normally frugal wife told me to get one. My jaw hit the floor. It is a weird phenomenon for my use case, but im thinking is the MAJOR factor that will continue to catapult Tesla into huge sales.

 

[tivoboy]

"$TSLA short interest is $9.03 billion, shares shorted 32.16 million, 25.22% of float. The last time #Tesla shares shorted and $ Short Interest was this low was in late March when it's stock price was also trading at sub $300 levels."

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

And yet, from a relative fundamental standpoint there has been SOOOOOoo much good news since then (I'm saying this emphatically, not sarcastically). The M3 is out and killing it. ppl. LOVE the car. Orders are up, sales are up, deliveries are up. The Semi is out and about and being tested. The next Gen Roadster has been revealed (for the most part) and is already being seen in videos and in public settings.

And foreign sovereign wealth funds (and some other FDI) have shown they have an investment interest at a certain price point.

Yes, there is a lot of debt coming due and a LOT of spending coming up and other than M3 orders and its current demand curve not a lot of acceleration of orders for other cars.. Not to mention the begin of the fall off in the US federal tax credit starting 1/1/19 next year. There are manufacturing issues, delivery issues and support issues. These would/should have been expected by anyone who knows the auto manufacturing industry (yours truly) and should not have been TOO unexpected to get to what is a significantly higher volume production rate than anything the company had proven they could do before.

And yet the stock and the short interest remain relatively stable. (although, we have seen higher rates of short interest and I would bet we see an uptick in short interest again)

So, all we can do is trade around it.

 

[Jayjs20]

Just liquidated my account again at a 40k lost. But it's cool. Looking around, I noticed that while my DITM leaps dropped, the OTM leaps dropped even further. I sold 22 OTM call options back when we thought we were going private and bought 10 DITM call options. At the current prices, I'll be able to do buy back 25 OTM call options.

Now I just need to ask the universe not to jump TSLA 5% before my funds settle and I can buy back in. If you can do me that favor, it'd be awesome. Thank you, universe.

 

[SpaceCash]

Just liquidated my account again at a 40k lost. But it's cool. Looking around, I noticed that while my DITM leaps dropped, the OTM leaps dropped even further. I sold 22 OTM call options back when we thought we were going private and bought 10 DITM call options. At the current prices, I'll be able to do buy back 25 OTM call options.

Now I just need to ask the universe not to jump TSLA 5% before my funds settle and I can buy back in. If you can do me that favor, it'd be awesome. Thank you, universe.

WHY would you do that at what is imo a clear bottom? Do you really think it will retest 250? And if so for more than a day?

I just don't understand your line of thought

 

[Jayjs20]

WHY would you do that at what is imo a clear bottom? Do you really think it will retest 250? And if so for more than a day?

I just don't understand your line of thought

Price does not matter since I'm just moving from one leap to another. I just need the price not to jump while I make the transition.

 

[1101011]

We need Model Y

Typical parking lot scene:

Will not be a lack of demand.

 

[Fact Checking]

Ah, it would affect third-party leased vehicles in that the bank is guaranteed the resale value from Tesla.

However, does this offer apply to third-party leases, or just first-party Tesla-issued leases? Because those, the lease itself is the resale value protection (that is, you are guaranteed to not have to pay anything to get rid of the car at the end of the lease).

Indeed, you are right:

Tesla lifts restriction on ending Model S/X leases early if you get a new car by the end of the quarter

It is about Tesla leases - Tesla has no control over third party leases.

So you are right, there's no resale value guarantee liability reduction effect.

Do you agree with the other effects I listed? Anything else I missed perhaps?

 

[SO16]

You still do not get it, do you? The reputational damage for Tesla and its investors is huge. The media all over Europe are believing and writing that Elon has completely lost his mind.

I agree.

Even though I can perhaps understand why Elon responded the way he did, his position requires more restraint....period. I would have much preferred he just contacted the authorities silently behind the scenes and go from there. Announcing this to the world and going this path was not wise....

 

[humbaba]

This article looks accurate, inclusive, balanced and broad to me. Good article to share to introduce the world of EV, Tesla, and Elon. Provides a fairly complete list of negatives of Elon and Musk without the FUD. Mercedes-Benz is finally taking on Tesla. It probably won’t work.

It was "accurate, inclusive, balanced", as far as mainstream press articles go. But they didn't omit the FUD. I forget if they used "unhinged" to describe Musk, but they definitely said "erratic". This is a widespread perception to be sure, but it is based on innuendo, cherry picking and misleading statements/representations.

I mean, I get it that those representing status quo were upset by Musk's brushing off the repetitious, FUD-aligned questioning in the call, but that does not make him erratic. There's BuzzFeed's unsubstantiated claims that are trumpeted everywhere as fact -- but even if it is true that *still* doesn't make him erratic, only consistent and persistent in his portrayal of Unswerth.

I also understand that they want to paint him in a negative light, but saying that he "reneged" on going private is a flat out lie, no getting around it.

And then you get all the cozying up to the established interests. Despite the parade of failures, they paint a picture of inevitability that the big boy car manufacturers will eventually "get it" and make a competitive EV while Tesla simply cannot scale.

So, no, it isn't as FUD ridden as the NYT and in comparison might seem balanced -- but it is just a more sophisticated FUD article that omits the grandiose claims of Tesla going immediately bankrupt while maintaining that their failure is inevitable. The message is clear: do not buy Tesla (no support from a failed company) and do not buy $TSLA (stock will have no value after the bankruptcy).

[edited to add: yes, I missed including they used the exaggerated/puffed-up stats for the EQC while omitting its numerous shortcomings. Its part of the whole exaggerate what the traditional car companies can do when it comes to EVs. This was just another negative piece propagating FUD more by assumption than explicit statement -- that last being about the only way in which it differs from the run-of-the-mill pieces.]

 

[beachbum77]

I actually wrote an article a while back on stories from people evacuating Irma and how the charging network dealt:

"I shudder to think of evacuating in an electric car"- EVs in Disasters: Expectations Versus Reality

Great article Karen. Very well done and informative.

 

[Truthsetter]

And back we are at 280$... That is what I meant - every rise is immediately being sold again. Damn it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yes, there is a lot of debt coming due and a LOT of spending coming up

BTW., Q3 might be a catalyst:

• I can see over billion dollars of cash generation projected for Q3, which would pay off all upcoming convertible notes debt for the full years of 2018 and 2019. I.e. the debt/bankwuptcy FUD could be significantly weakened in ~8 weeks already.
• Projected cash capex for 2019 should actually be much lower than for 2018, which would add another $500m of cash flow per quarter,
• Further increases in Model 3 output will improve margins: at 8/week M3 margins could exceed 20%, which could generate about 1.5-2 billion dollars of cash per quarter, with S/X included.
• Moody's would have no choice but to upgrade Tesla's bond ratings - not that it matters much: Tesla won't finance from equity, ever again.
• Tesla gets added to the S&P 500 late next year.

I.e. next year Tesla could be generating enough cash to build a new Chinese Gigafactory per quarter, 100% self-financed.

So Q3 could be a "Hello new Amazon!" moment to investors.

 

[tivoboy]

Just liquidated my account again at a 40k lost. But it's cool. Looking around, I noticed that while my DITM leaps dropped, the OTM leaps dropped even further. I sold 22 OTM call options back when we thought we were going private and bought 10 DITM call options. At the current prices, I'll be able to do buy back 25 OTM call options.

Now I just need to ask the universe not to jump TSLA 5% before my funds settle and I can buy back in. If you can do me that favor, it'd be awesome. Thank you, universe.

Silver lining. If you're taking positions that large, positioned right you should be able to make that up quickly and you'll have 40K in losses to deduct from gains. (most likely ST) ;-)....

1st rule of trading. Don't lose money.
2nd rule of trading, know when to TAKE A LOSS.
rules 3-X, repeat rules 1 and 2

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla will meet its Model 3 goal so buy the stock, Oppenheimer says

 

[BrianZ]

And yet, from a relative fundamental standpoint there has been SOOOOOoo much good news since then (I'm saying this emphatically, not sarcastically). The M3 is out and killing it. ppl. LOVE the car. Orders are up, sales are up, deliveries are up. The Semi is out and about and being tested. The next Gen Roadster has been revealed (for the most part) and is already being seen in videos and in public settings.

And foreign sovereign wealth funds (and some other FDI) have shown they have an investment interest at a certain price point.

Yes, there is a lot of debt coming due and a LOT of spending coming up and other than M3 orders and its current demand curve not a lot of acceleration of orders for other cars.. Not to mention the begin of the fall off in the US federal tax credit starting 1/1/19 next year. There are manufacturing issues, delivery issues and support issues. These would/should have been expected by anyone who knows the auto manufacturing industry (yours truly) and should not have been TOO unexpected to get to what is a significantly higher volume production rate than anything the company had proven they could do before.

And yet the stock and the short interest remain relatively stable. (although, we have seen higher rates of short interest and I would bet we see an uptick in short interest again)

So, all we can do is trade around it.

Agreed. I bought some calls in anticipation of some good news coming out of the Joe Rogan interview. At the current low $280 prices, I don't think it'll go down <$275 unless something out of the ordinary happened. The stock price should only go up (slowly) from here for the near future, especially when the bad macro goes away.

 

[Joe F]

the pop in volume at @ 12:22 seems correlated to a Gasparino tweet RE SEC (possible) settlement with Musk. Updates to follow he says. Short covering?

 

[mltv]

Typical parking lot scene:
View attachment 332441


Will not be a lack of demand.

The parking where I work now has many Teslas (Model 3s sprang up a lot the last few months). Yet still a *lot* more non-Teslas.

 

[winfield100]

Oh my! Any problems charging cars?

i still had my 2013 Volt (since deceased, stop lights are mere suggestions for vehicles following)