TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Boomer19]

@Fact Checking there was a comment (maybe you raised it for us - can’t remember or find it in q2-q4 thread, here, or daily charts thread) about how the production # of cars related to to the # of lines at GF and how the trouble going from 10-13 lines has impacted us over the last month or so. whoever posted that comment referenced a user that commented on the electrek article that explained the hurdle (specifically that the extra 3 lines have been a bottleneck) and that gf has capacity for 70something lines??? i found this fascinating but can’t seem to find it now. i was almost sure it was your comment, but was hoping anyone could point me to it
thanks.

 

[Mich]

NASDQ down 45 we are up 8.
N I C E

This happens quiet often.
I have the theory that if the market is down TSLA is up because shorts cover to deleverage. A general down day causes big players to de-risk which cause TSLA to be shorted less. Could this be true?

 

[AndyH]

This article looks accurate, inclusive, balanced and broad to me. Good article to share to introduce the world of EV, Tesla, and Elon. Provides a fairly complete list of negatives of Elon and Musk without the FUD. Mercedes-Benz is finally taking on Tesla. It probably won’t work.

Well written but there were still a lot of FUD in it. There hasn't been an "exodus of executives". Some have left and some have arrived in a normal pace for the industry. Model 3 production hasn't been a "costly fiasco". It's clearly being produced and sold in big numbers way ahead of Teslas original timeline. A non biased person would call that a "major success".

And I'm sorry but at this stage of the onslaught of copycat FUD any mention of the phrase "cash-burn" will automatically lead me to think that the author of any such piece is a senselessly dribbling moron.

A better analysis would instead question what Tesla have been spending their money on and if that spending has lead to a competitive advantage? Lacking this the article still felt somewhat fair. The competition is definitely coming.

 

[mongo]

And perhaps more important is the revenues for Tesla. If we have an ASP of $60K (very possible in Aug due to the high proportion of AWD and P versions, plus all-white Int. and ea.w. LR/PUP) then that's about $1.227B in revenue for August alone.

And if we can say 15% Gross Margin, then that's $184M Gross Profit. Not a bad month's work, wot?

BTW, the top-selling Camry at $30K ASP and 30K sold is only $900M gross for August, and remember that a good chunk of that goes to the Dealers, not to Toyota.

So who's yer Elon now, boys? That's right. Elon is. Uh-huh.

Oh be reasonable,,, EAP alone is 8% GM on 60k ASP
P is free money too (without the P+, it's 10k for premium black interior and sorted motors call it 8k or 13%).
21% assuming AWD is only break even...

green... so very green....

 

[Fact Checking]

NASDQ down 45 we are up 8.
N I C E

In fact NASDAQ futures are now down about 100 for the day and about 200 down from recent highs, which provides a very negative macro sentiment.

Yet $TSLA shrugged off all 3 waves of selling on NASDAQ which created lower lows today, by making higher highs - which was pretty impressive.

Could be big short covering, or serious buy interest:

• yesterday's delivery estimates for August were pretty bullish for Q3 financials
• today's stories about record August sales were also eye-openers and effective counters to the 'no demand' and 'competition is about to crush Tesla' thesis
• that's one of the problems with the peak Tesla FUD of the last few weeks: there's eventually fatigue and the whiplash effect on positive news can be brutal
• I don't think the market has priced in the fact that while Q3 profitability could go either way still, but there's now a higher than 98% chance for Tesla to be significantly cash flow positive in Q3, having their "Amazon moment" and not requiring market-financing ever again. That ship has sailed.

But still pretty low volume overall, so be careful out there.

Update: the 5th wave of selling NASDAQ that took it to almost -2% finally had an effect on TSLA as well and broke its opening price. Still pretty impressive overall.

Hopefully Elon is going to do today's Joe Rogan interview smarter than the NYT interview. At least there's going to be a recording of the interview.

 

[Fact Checking]

And perhaps more important is the revenues for Tesla. If we have an ASP of $60K (very possible in Aug due to the high proportion of AWD and P versions, plus all-white Int. and ea.w. LR/PUP) then that's about $1.227B in revenue for August alone.

And if we can say 15% Gross Margin, then that's $184M Gross Profit. Not a bad month's work, wot?

While the M3 August figures were nice, equally important are the record strong August U.S. sales of Model S+X that InsideEV reported:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Very impressive 'second month of the quarter' Model S+X sales.

 

[theschnell]

Just a reminder to all that Tesla produced right around 100,000 vehicles in 2017, and will produce between 70,000 to 80,000 vehicles in Q3, and approaching 90,000 vehicles in Q4. If that's not a massive growth story, I don't know what is.

 

[Unpilot]

In fact NASDAQ futures are now down about 100 for the day and about 200 down from recent highs, which provides a very negative macro sentiment.

Yet $TSLA shrugged off all 3 waves of selling on NASDAQ which created lower lows today, by making higher highs - which was pretty impressive.

Could be big short covering, or serious buy interest:

• yesterday's delivery estimates for August were pretty bullish for Q3 financials
• today's stories about record August sales were also eye-openers and effective counters to the 'no demand' and 'competition is about to crush Tesla' thesis
• that's one of the problems with the peak Tesla FUD of the last few weeks: there's eventually fatigue and the whiplash effect on positive news can be brutal
• I don't think the market has priced in the fact that while Q3 profitability could go either way still, but there's now a higher than 98% chance for Tesla to be significantly cash flow positive in Q3, having their "Amazon moment" and not requiring market-financing ever again. That ship has sailed.

Hopefully Elon is going to do today's Joe Rogan interview smarter than the NYT interview. At least there's going to be a recording of the interview.

Yep a recording that people can listen to in it's entirety. Plus this is the new way to reach people. Joe Rogan's you tube podcast channel has well over 3 million subscribers....and a ton more viewer's.

His podcast in number three in the USA Industry Rankings

There will be little that the main stream media thugs can do to stop the truth of this interview from getting out.

 

[jhm]

Off Topic
We got outta Cape Coral (120 miles SW of Tampa on west coast of Florida) monday, 4am
just ahead of pulse of 3 Million evacuating the state up I-75 and I-95
Cape Coral ran out of gas later that day (100,000+ residents)
Interstate 95 kinda trashed/unpassable in North and South Carolina soon afterwrds, detours of 100+ miles west

Oh my! Any problems charging cars?

 

[KarenRei]

I can attest to the “unlock the wallet” as well. Model 3 is THE most expensive car we have ever purchased. Not because we couldn’t afford an expensive car before, but because we saw no value is anything other than a typical accord or Camry. We did have an SUV when kids were younger which was 45k with upgrades, that was in 2003. Our incomes have more than doubled since then, but we would still never have shelled out 55k for anything other than a Tesla.

I'm in my late 30s. The most expensive car I've ever purchased in my life has been under $5k. I'm going from a 21+-second 0-100kph, nearly-750k-km-on-the-odometer, 2000 Honda Insight with a broken HV pack, to a Model 3 LR PUP AWD (at European prices).

Yes, Tesla does know how to unlock the wallet

 

[KarenRei]

Oh my! Any problems charging cars?

I actually wrote an article a while back on stories from people evacuating Irma and how the charging network dealt:

"I shudder to think of evacuating in an electric car"- EVs in Disasters: Expectations Versus Reality

 

[Tslynk67]

This happens quiet often.
I have the theory that if the market is down TSLA is up because shorts cover to deleverage. A general down day causes big players to de-risk which cause TSLA to be shorted less. Could this be true?

I Think today it’s more because of the good sales estimates - in this case, Tesla is doing well, despite the poor macro.

If NASDAQ goes green, well...

 

[Cohiba]

I Think today it’s more because of the good sales estimates - in this case, Tesla is doing well, despite the poor macro.

If NASDAQ goes green, well...

Time for a TurboXL Long 273,91?

 

[jeewee3000]

Time for a TurboXL Long 273,91?

You might want to wait until October for that. (I've been busted on TurboXL's way too many times, and it's always when I anticipate a huge move up and buy a Turbo so close to the current stock price. Long term you're better off only trading Turbo's that are at least 50% below current stockprice.)

Not an advice per se, but still. Be careful.

 

[imherkimer]

This article looks accurate, inclusive, balanced and broad to me. Good article to share to introduce the world of EV, Tesla, and Elon. Provides a fairly complete list of negatives of Elon and Musk without the FUD. Mercedes-Benz is finally taking on Tesla. It probably won’t work.

Elon and Musk?

 

[bhtooefr]

So I think it affects leased vehicles as well, although I'm not certain to what extent.

Ah, it would affect third-party leased vehicles in that the bank is guaranteed the resale value from Tesla.

However, does this offer apply to third-party leases, or just first-party Tesla-issued leases? Because those, the lease itself is the resale value protection (that is, you are guaranteed to not have to pay anything to get rid of the car at the end of the lease).

 

[tivoboy]

Sold sept 292.5 calls at 10.55$ in the run up. Stock bad price action now. I'll re-buy these Sept calls if we get back to 275$ in the next couple trading days.

 

[Tslynk67]

Just a reminder to all that Tesla produced right around 100,000 vehicles in 2017, and will produce between 70,000 to 80,000 vehicles in Q3, and approaching 90,000 vehicles in Q4. If that's not a massive growth story, I don't know what is.

Indeed, it’s utterly phenomenal, they just need to sort-out their delivery logistics now.

Will come, then there’ll be another storm brew up, maybe in service, or something, but they’ll solve that too as-and-when it crops-up.

And it’s so exhilarating to be part of this story - will certainly be something to tell the grandchildren!

 

[tivoboy]

I actually wrote an article a while back on stories from people evacuating Irma and how the charging network dealt:

"I shudder to think of evacuating in an electric car"- EVs in Disasters: Expectations Versus Reality

Nice article. If one lived in those areas, I would definitely always recommend getting a LR vehicle over anything else. Of course charging prior to a natural disaster is key, and upon any evacuation, I would imagine speeds would be so low that experienced RANGE would actually INCREASE.. if I could only drive 35-40 all the time, I'd get at LEAST 420 miles range on the 75kwh pack in our LRM3.

If I were to be in one of those areas, I would probably also have battery backup in the home and what I would REALLY love to see is the ability for the CAR to PROVIDE some of the 75kwh power back out to the home in some way. Ultimately, at some point in the future, I'd like to see the CAR be an onsite battery backup for the home.

 

[LordAstinus]

"$TSLA short interest is $9.03 billion, shares shorted 32.16 million, 25.22% of float. The last time #Tesla shares shorted and $ Short Interest was this low was in late March when it's stock price was also trading at sub $300 levels."

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter