TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

The Red Army was an organization where it took more courage to retreat than advance.
Robin

There's an old story about Trotsky when he led the Red Army during the Civil War. Apparently a brigade had fled the battlefield. Afterward he had them count off to ten, selected ten of one number, asked them to step forward. Then he had them killed. Later he explained, "having them killed was a lesson for the men. Having to watch this was my punishment."

It is estimated seven million died in the Russian Civil War. We invaded in two places and supported the Whites, of course.

 

[mutle]

Looks like the shorts are more sure of themselves than ever that Tesla is going bankwupt soon. Even if TSLA posts a cash flow positive Q3 they won’t be going anywhere.

Indeed. Even saw some predict bankruptcy for today or tomorrow. We already know how they will spin Q3 profitability from the “pie in the face of WS” quarter, one time thing, ZEV credit “cheating”, liquidated inventory, blah, blah, FUD, FUD.

 

[Zaxxon]

From where I’m sitting, Tesla is doing exactly what he described. They didn’t just run this event for fun, and it wasn’t just happenstance that it’s specifically RWD models.

It's not specifically RWD vehicles. It's a mix. Read the event thread.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

It's not specifically RWD vehicles. It's a mix. Read the event thread.

Mostly RWDs though. They run out of AWD and Ps on Saturday and sent email apologizing (_I think_) Saturday evening. It was posted around here (or delivery thread).
I think it's clear that AWD and Ps are cars that missed shipment or logistics simply can't keep up with production; however, as discussed numerous times now, there is supply of LR non-AWD, likely because they are limited in how many AWDs they can build at the moment. So they produce extra LR PUP to not slow down the line. I have no worry about them being sold quickly, my small worry is how that gets spun in the media. But we're in ideal place to weather any bad news (this is non-event from my point of view), negativity is off the chart, I don't think anything short of WWIII can push price down. Or, you know, Elon doing something...

 

[Zaxxon]

They did send that email, but it was not accurate. Several folks on the boards reported buying or seeing AWD and P vehicles available today. And a bunch yesterday. I don't dispute that it was likely mostly RWD. But it's clear there was/is a non-trivial number of AWD/P, as well.

 

[geneclean55]

Interesting. So there was a mix of RWD/AWD available and many RWD didn't make cut off to East coast. Good to know.

 

[Foghat]

Update:

So the CEO of Twitter tweeted a really positive tweet about Elon’s interview on theJoe Rogan experience (which is over 8m now).

Also, a famous Australian artist just painted a mural of Elon spliff meme tweeting “y’all think this was a bad move for Elon Musk?” (meaning Elon is now immortalized in a famous mural)

So, good question... upon reflection, will anyone actually think Elon’s interview was not genius?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Update:

So the CEO of Twitter tweeted a really positive tweet about Elon’s interview on theJoe Rogan experience (which is over 8m now).

Also, a famous Australian artist just painted a mural of Elon spliff meme tweeting “y’all think this was a bad move for Elon Musk?” (meaning Elon is now immortalized in a famous mural)

So, good question... upon reflection, will anyone actually think Elon’s interview was not genius?

I've got to admit, I was annoyed, and yet... it may turn out to be great move, because of all additional attention it gathered, mostly by people that are very open minded. So we continue building the brand, while scaring investors

While on the subject of building the brand. What's little appreciated is lore that is being created right now. I can see story unfolding in front of our eyes* that in 20, 30 or 50, 60 years will be told. I equate this to the Porsche story, their beginnings and breakthroughs. And while those years didn't make them rich company, they've put in place foundation and the lore, that is now firmly allowing them to sale at huge premiums to other brands.

* what will end up in history books as Tesla's firsts: skateboard design, first autopilot, first holistic software/hw design, first 17" tablet, drivetrain smoothness, separating regen from braking function, using two motors for AWD, 1Mmiles goal for powertrain, first commercial attention to proper temperature control of batteries, Gigafactory, radical simplicity (no cluster), new type of AC motor (switched reluctance something-something), superchargers etc, etc... Books will be written about this, I know, I have few about Porsche and their industry firsts, and they are, (in my mind) much less impressive.
And then, impression on kids that are growing right now: that huge screen, being able to draw on the screen, Santa Claus mode, auto-pilot, acceleration (My 7 year old has concluded yesterday that Porsche GT4 is very quick, but not Tesla quick)

 

[Tslynk67]

Update:

So the CEO of Twitter tweeted a really positive tweet about Elon’s interview on theJoe Rogan experience (which is over 8m now).

Also, a famous Australian artist just painted a mural of Elon spliff meme tweeting “y’all think this was a bad move for Elon Musk?” (meaning Elon is now immortalized in a famous mural)

So, good question... upon reflection, will anyone actually think Elon’s interview was not genius?

I've got to admit, I was annoyed, and yet... it may turn out to be great move, because of all additional attention it gathered, mostly by people that are very open minded. So we continue building the brand, while scaring investors

It's the "open minded" ones who are more likely to buy an EV...

And there it is...

 

[FS_FRA]

+1.58% @ EUR 231.375 (~$267) in Frankfurt in pre-market

 

[BioSehnsucht]

We ordered AWD mostly for greater regenerative braking.

That helps on the S/X but it seems on the 3, the extra regen capture ability is outweighed by the mass penalty of an extra motor/inverter/gearbox/axles. The induction motors (S,X, 3's front motor) are less efficient than the PMSRM (3's rear motor). The main feature is that they can spin freely with essentially no power cost (though there are still friction losses) and the PMSRM can't do that. The increased regen with the S & X outweighs the mass penalty (perhaps in part due to being a smaller % of total mass as those cars are heavier) but on the 3 the mass penalty wins.

 

[Yggdrasill]

That helps on the S/X but it seems on the 3, the extra regen capture ability is outweighed by the mass penalty of an extra motor/inverter/gearbox/axles. The induction motors (S,X, 3's front motor) are less efficient than the PMSRM (3's rear motor). The main feature is that they can spin freely with essentially no power cost (though there are still friction losses) and the PMSRM can't do that. The increased regen with the S & X outweighs the mass penalty (perhaps in part due to being a smaller % of total mass as those cars are heavier) but on the 3 the mass penalty wins.

The primary benefit for regen is that you get regen on all four wheels, instead of just the rear wheels. In low-traction conditions, it makes a big difference. You get both increased regen and more predictable regen.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The primary benefit for regen is that you get regen on all four wheels, instead of just the rear wheels. In low-traction conditions, it makes a big difference. You get both increased regen and more predictable regen.

Except for Performance which can regen at up to 0.3G, it's limited to 0.2G of regen anyways (RWD and regular AWD), apparently. And if your concern is low traction, your concern is low traction (so get AWD) not whether regen is consistent or balanced well. If your concern is range, for the 3 the second motor doesn't help, it actually hurts.

I suspect it's not even really more wheels for regen that improves S/X range, it's the different efficiency curves for the different motors, since with a peak of 0.2G regen decel it's not like having another motor is helping any except in extremely low traction conditions.

Anyways, while there are many that want AWD for AWD's sake, there's many who were conditioned by S/X to want AWD because the dual motor S/X have greater range than the RWD models. My point is that these people who are only buying it for range are throwing away money on a lower range model.

 

[gora321]

#Tesla registered 1,632 new #Model3 VINs. ~85% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 112315.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

 

[Tslynk67]

 

[dondy]

If Mr Morton wasn’t aware of occasionally sleeping at the factory to get the job done then he was too stupid to work there. It’s not a secret that that happens sometimes at Fremont or on the roof of Gigafactory.... and when that didn’t happen he went and got another job at Anaplan.

Check out news for Anaplan somewhere in February....

 

[avoigt]

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The really interesting part today will be to watch a market where shorts will not be able to manipulate. We all are speculating since years what would be without them playing their manipulative games. Today we get that opportunity.

If I understand the SEC rule correctly they are fully excluded from trading today.

 

[dondy]

From where I’m sitting, Tesla is doing exactly what he described. They didn’t just run this event for fun, and it wasn’t just happenstance that it’s specifically RWD models. Note that this is *bullish*. They underestimated (higher margin) AWD demand and overestimated (lower margin) RWD demand.

That’s great going forward. Once they clear out this glut of RWD models, they can increase the percentage of AWD production and rake in even higher profits than they thought.

AWD has an extra motor of different type, while it's trivial to install front piece you need to have one available.
There is no "underestimation" or "overestimation". They have numerous supply dilemmas. AC motors were from the start Tesla's headache which they solved only by bringing production in-house.
And they solved it only partially because motor replacement remains one of the longest repairs for Tesla S or X.

The events are not about RWD specifically, there are plenty of posts from people who actually went there and left with AWD models. They try different approaches to simplify delivery process. To remove an obvious bottleneck.

 

[Mich]

The really interesting part today will be to watch a market where shorts will not be able to manipulate. We all are speculating since years what would be without them playing their manipulative games. Today we get that opportunity.

If I understand the SEC rule correctly they are fully excluded from trading today.

Wrong! They can sell to open on upticks. Read Papafox's daily chart thread for details on this.