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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. Reality

    Reality Member

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    very interesting, wish he would link sources
     
  2. HG Wells

    HG Wells Martian Embassy

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    Id go for that. I've been waiting for the base (plus paint).
    But I would go for PUP if it was a software limited SR.

    NOTE: I would think this software limited car would be only available on the current excess inventory.
     
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  3. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    And don’t forget the First Roadster that paved the way for Tesla by showing electric vehicles can be fun, FAST and go far.
     
  4. Joe F

    Joe F Disruption is hard.

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    And carry around excess weight in unusable battery? What would that do to range?
     
  5. bhtooefr

    bhtooefr Active Member

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    Although they have strongly overlapping buyer pools - I've known people to daily drive F-350s and use them as family cars just as they'd do the same with an F-150, and someone towing heavy trailers might be cross-shopping between F-250 all the way up to F-450.

    (Honestly, the biggest reason to buy an F-250 or an F-350 over an F-450 is registration fees - the lower your GVWR, the lower your registration fees.)

    So I was under the impression that regenerative braking wasn't as effective on AC induction motors, and therefore the Model S and X were motor-limited in RWD variants, but that the Model 3 (with its PMSRM rear motor) is limited by how quickly Tesla wants the battery charged?

    So, AWD would help with regen in traction-limited situations, although I'd expect that the EPA test cycle isn't traction-limited, and that's why any AWD advantage doesn't show up, only its disadvantages.
     
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  6. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Only on initial sale. Pay to unlock (upgrade) and unlocking for CPO would raise margin and resale value respectively (note lack of capacity badging).
    Also compensates for degredation. (Potentially could be used for less cold weather loss, but that is tapping into more kWh...)
     
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  7. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Not much. The change in mass between the extra active cells vs filler would be minimal (pack external size is the same). Would also allow more regen. Pack internal resistance would be lower and pack voltage would stay higher longer (better efficiency). Additionally, supercharging would go faster.

    All industrial power generation is basically AC motors in regen mode (some is now DC with inverter). PMSR is easier to control than AC induction due to the rotor slip issue on the latter.

    Best wishes to all today!
     
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  8. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Sure but that wouldn't happen until years in the future, profit margins matter now.
     
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  9. LoveTSLA

    LoveTSLA Member

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    If you can read Chinese:
    特斯拉在华公司注册资本增至46.7亿


    特斯拉在华公司注册资本增至46.7亿
     
  10. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Sure, however:
    It matters to lease residuals (lease as SR, turn in as LR). If the LR really was 28k to make, they are still good at 35k (20% GM) even without EAP (12.5%)/ option content.
     
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  11. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    #35331 neroden, Sep 10, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2018
    Sure. This does show that they're having serious delivery logistics problems, which we knew.
    (Not enough parking lots on the East Coast.)

    I still don't think it's a coincidence that:
    (1) The AWD cars which "missed the train" sold out within a couple of hours, while there were still a lot of RWDs to sell
    (2) People ordering RWD -- unrelated to this event -- have been getting their cars in as little as two weeks and no more than four weeks (with the exception of one poor guy whose order seems to be lost), while people ordering AWD have been told "um, we'll get to you when we can" and given estimates of several months
    (3) there was a leak sometime back that they had much more demand for AWD than expected
    (4) there was a leak that they had a bottleneck in front motor production

    I don't think Tesla can produce 100% AWD cars at the maxmium rate of the factory yet. If they could, they would vastly increase the AWD/RWD ratio.
     
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  12. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Really? Went fast for me. Seems to be a quick replacement in general.

    I've heard no leaks from the Model 3 front motor manufacturing department except the one indicating that they were limited by parts supply. I'm assuming that they were, in fact, limited by parts supply, because they'd underesimated AWD demand at first. Presumably once they knew what the demand was, they raised their parts order and have been waiting for the increased parts supply to show up. Should happen any day now.

     
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  13. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    I'm going to start calling him FrUD at this rate! Seriously, why tag "still a lot more to go" onto the headline, which is clearly trying to spin a negative into a positive scenario.

    A better headline would be "Tesla raises first $680 towards GF3 in China".

    upload_2018-9-10_14-40-8.png
     
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  14. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Chinese business setup is very bureaucratic. Unlike in the US where you can just say "I'm starting a corporation... to do whatever", in China you have to specify what you're doing and tick a lot of boxes. There are actual legal limits on how leveraged you can be (debt/equity ratios). This is Tesla going through all that paperwork, and it is giving us some information.

    By raising the registered capital, they are guaranteeing that they'll put that equity in *eventually* (apparently it can be over 20 years)... but making that guarantee of future equity insertion is a necessary legal prerequisite for getting the loans, due to the Chinese debt/equity regulations. According to Vincent, 1/3 of the funding is now lined up in loans already, which is good news.
     
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  15. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    This isn't even accurate. My god, does nobody do their research? Fred, this is a disgrace. All I had to do was google "registered capital China" to figure out what it meant. It does NOT mean that they have "raised" that much money.
     
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  16. Buddyroe

    Buddyroe Active Member

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    I think the problem is that they have tons of unsold RWD LR cars sitting all over the country. I was at the Charlotte Sales/Service Center yesterday and they must have 200 to 250 M3s sitting on the lot. Granted, some of those are probably sold, but I was told a significant portion (does that mean 10 cars or 150 cars, I don't know) were staged cars. Would it be best at this point to software limit them and sell them as SR? Or have them sit on the lot until a buyer can be found?
     
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  17. LoveTSLA

    LoveTSLA Member

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  18. Reality

    Reality Member

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    JUst to prevent FUD


    The electrek article reporting the 680m is misleading. They only increased the registered share capital. No funding has been identified as of yet. One can assume they would only increase registered share capital if funding was planned tho.
     
  19. beachbum77

    beachbum77 Banned

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    "SImply missed their shipment window" to a buyer who placed the order back east? So since they would not be able to get it delivered by 9/30 they canceled the shipment and are selling it locally in CA instead?

    For a Tesla employee to even admit that would be insane and should be immediately fired. Thankfully that is not the case. These are cars built as spec units that just have yet to be matched to an existing or new order.
     
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  20. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    No, there's enough evidence that this is actually happening; some people are getting their deliveries cancelled and a new one built for them simply because their car "missed the train". I know it's pretty weird, but apparently the delivery logistics right now are such that this gets them their car *faster* than trying to get the pre-built car to them. (Yes, this implies some serious delivery logistics problems, I know. I don't think this practice is going to continue for long.)
     
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