TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

I'm already blacklisted at Electrec, my comments do not show up anymore.
Be careful with calling him for what he is, he will blacklist you.

My "one step to far" was a comment: "Who needs enemies, with friends like this".

 

[beachbum77]

Crazy idea: software limit the packs and sell them as SR models. Solves two problems.

No need to go that crazy yet. Give the inventory reduction sales process a chance to work first without cutting sales prices. Limiting the pack (which would not reduce the production costs) and cutting prices $9k should be a VERY last resort measure.

 

[beachbum77]

Only on initial sale. Pay to unlock (upgrade) and unlocking for CPO would raise margin and resale value respectively (note lack of capacity badging).
Also compensates for degredation. (Potentially could be used for less cold weather loss, but that is tapping into more kWh...)

Initial sale is what this is all about. Tesla is trying to hit a profit for the first time in 2 consecutive quarters. Slicing their profit margin unnecessarily will not help.

 

[Krugerrand]

Only on initial sale. Pay to unlock (upgrade) and unlocking for CPO would raise margin and resale value respectively (note lack of capacity badging).
Also compensates for degredation. (Potentially could be used for less cold weather loss, but that is tapping into more kWh...)

That may have worked for Model S but there were so few limited 60’s (to 40s). I just don’t see how it’s advisable for 3’s unless demand is also just a handful - which we’ve been led to believe by several people on both sides of the fight isn’t true.

I’m of the mind as others have stated - bad idea.

 

[scaesare]

"SImply missed their shipment window" to a buyer who placed the order back east? So since they would not be able to get it delivered by 9/30 they canceled the shipment and are selling it locally in CA instead?

For a Tesla employee to even admit that would be insane and should be immediately fired. Thankfully that is not the case. These are cars built as spec units that just have yet to be matched to an existing or new order.

Do you think this through?

- Batch of 100 cars misses train that can carry 100 cars
- Next batch of 100 cars is produced bound for distance destination
- 200 cars for remote-destination now staged. Next train can only carry 100
- 100 cars make train, 100 still waiting.
- Next batch of 100 cars produced for remote destination
- Etc...

Surely you can see the folly of your statement....

 

[mrdoubleb]

I'm already blacklisted at Electrec, my comments do not show up anymore.
Be careful with calling him for what he is, he will blacklist you.

My "one step to far" was a comment: "Who needs enemies, with friends like this".

I can totally see that. It is apparent Fred has very thin skin.

 

[LoveTSLA]

WOW! 300 close this week?

 

[mongo]

No, there's enough evidence that this is actually happening; some people are getting their deliveries cancelled and a new one built for them simply because their car "missed the train". I know it's pretty weird, but apparently the delivery logistics right now are such that this gets them their car *faster* than trying to get the pre-built car to them. (Yes, this implies some serious delivery logistics problems, I know. I don't think this practice is going to continue for long.)

Or, that Tesla can sell the original car and build a new one before the next rain leaves the station (so not faster, but not slower either).

That may have worked for Model S but there were so few limited 60’s (to 40s). I just don’t see how it’s advisable for 3’s unless demand is also just a handful - which we’ve been led to believe by several people on both sides of the fight isn’t true.

I’m of the mind as others have stated - bad idea.

I disagree it is a bad idea, though it might not be a great idea. If Tesla is Fremont limited, and not GF1 (pack/ cell limited), then the extra 25kWh * $100 = $2.5k ish (cell cost only) profit hit right now (assuming gross margin profitability) may be worth the possibility of a 9k+ upgrade later.
The long term profitability can be much better (depending on upgrade percentage).

 

[neroden]

I can totally see that. It is apparent Fred has very thin skin.

Yeah. He has way too thin a skin. Looks like he doesn't want to post my comments, *even though he actually corrected the article*. Similar to his inappropriate behavior shadowbanning Karen.

 

[heltok]

Open looked strange, first +3%, then +0%, then +6% in a minute. Some bots got rich on behalf of some whale?

 

[beachbum77]

I think the problem is that they have tons of unsold RWD LR cars sitting all over the country. I was at the Charlotte Sales/Service Center yesterday and they must have 200 to 250 M3s sitting on the lot. Granted, some of those are probably sold, but I was told a significant portion (does that mean 10 cars or 150 cars, I don't know) were staged cars. Would it be best at this point to software limit them and sell them as SR? Or have them sit on the lot until a buyer can be found?

It is my honest opinion that what we saw occur in Fremont this weekend will be duplicated around the country in the next few weeks and months. This weekend was a test and even though it appears they did not sell everything they would have liked, it was indeed a success and the stock is reacting accordingly to the new transparency

 

[Sancho]

As reported here by someone yesterday, many of us first day reservation holders received an email that we were invited to take immediate delivery of RWD M3s. So clearly there is excess RWD inventory (with several different reasons already posted here).

Now it will be interesting to watch how they deal with it. The traditional way to clear excess cars on the lot is to lower the price, but Musk is very adverse to that for good reason, but hey, it makes no sense not to sell as many as they can this quarter.

 

[WarpedOne]

I will gladly take one LR, I'm not even picky on color ... white, blue, MSM, whathaveyou.
... just STFU and bring it to Europe already.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Has anyone seen the Market Action thread?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Yeah. He has way too thin a skin. Looks like he doesn't want to post my comments, *even though he actually corrected the article*. Similar to his inappropriate behavior shadowbanning Karen.

Don`t feel too bad about that... he regularly uses material form other sites (incl. Reddit, InsideEVs, etc) without giving any credit.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sure. This does show that they're having serious delivery logistics problems, which we knew.
(Not enough parking lots on the East Coast.)

I still don't think it's a coincidence that:
(1) The AWD cars which "missed the train" sold out within a couple of hours, while there were still a lot of RWDs to sell
(2) People ordering RWD -- unrelated to this event -- have been getting their cars in as little as two weeks and no more than four weeks (with the exception of one poor guy whose order seems to be lost), while people ordering AWD have been told "um, we'll get to you when we can" and given estimates of several months
(3) there was a leak sometime back that they had much more demand for AWD than expected
(4) there was a leak that they had a bottleneck in front motor production

I don't think Tesla can produce 100% AWD cars at the maxmium rate of the factory yet. If they could, they would vastly increase the AWD/RWD ratio.

Of course it wouldn’t be a coincidence the AWDs sold first. Tesla’s already been selling the RWDs for months. This does not require some genius to figure out, nor does it imply RWDs won’t sell, or all the other theories floating around. It’s just common sense that in the moment the initial pent up demand for RWDs is met and that demand for them in the US will now follow a more balanced trajectory. But still, those RWDs missed their ride and thus their intended buyers. Tesla will find them new buyers on this side now of the US. No big deal. And some here seem to want to imply the RWD 3 demand is now dead; it’s not. We got a few countries left on this planet to sell RWD to.

Yes, on your second point. So? Exact same thing happened with the S.

Yes, on your third point. *shrug*. Not a surprise. We probably could have predicted that. People think they need the RWD for snow, not understanding the beauty of Tesla traction control, others getting it because more motors means faster acceleration, others because Tesla has this *you must option out* freaky mojo thing going on.

Yes, on point 4.

Yes, sounds logical on conclusion.

 

[MP3Mike]

Yeah. He has way too thin a skin. Looks like he doesn't want to post my comments, *even though he actually corrected the article*. Similar to his inappropriate behavior shadowbanning Karen.

Did you put any links in your comments? If so, those comments will never appear. You aren't allowed to link to anything...

 

[bhtooefr]

That may have worked for Model S but there were so few limited 60’s (to 40s). I just don’t see how it’s advisable for 3’s unless demand is also just a handful - which we’ve been led to believe by several people on both sides of the fight isn’t true.

I’m of the mind as others have stated - bad idea.

There were also the 75s limited to 60s, for the Model S and X.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm going to start calling him FrUD at this rate! Seriously, why tag "still a lot more to go" onto the headline, which is clearly trying to spin a negative into a positive scenario.

A better headline would be "Tesla raises first $680 towards GF3 in China".

View attachment 333668

I thought we agreed not to go to that site for a year? Somebody has no self control.

 

[Todd Burch]

WOW! 300 close this week?

I'd be disappointed if this week closes only at $300.