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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Friday and Monday have been unusual trading days for the stock because of the rule installed restricting shorts to manipulate too heavily after the 10% drop last Friday. That rule has been valid Friday after the drop and Monday.

It was like an experiment helping us all to understand to what extend the artificial selling shorts do, to motivate weak longs to sell as well, has a real effect.

Lets disregard if the media have had an effect for the moment. Its another influential factor for sure and as the latest report from Zach at CleanTechnica has shown the overwhelming negative reporting of course does have influence (208 Tesla Headlines, 155 Negative & 26 Positive — #Pravduh About #Tesla | CleanTechnica) . That influence remains the same over time though and we can therefore eliminate that factor in the assessment as its statistically not relevant.

Don't get this wrong as its of course a negative factor for the sentiment and SP but not if you compare a "before and after".

Its worth to mention that 60% trading from shorts is very high. IOW we seen the shorts limited in their ability to manipulate that much but still a very high rate of involvement.

After adding Friday (I like the flavor of panic in the air) I made Monday morning European time the decision that the short term risk is at about 10% but the upside opportunity around 90% . Usually I do not buy in Frankfurt as the volume is too low and the price determination only a shadow of Nasdaq. Monday that fact turned to my favor and I bought in many hours before Wall Street opened at $270 and $272.

Now we all watched the chard yesterday and it looks impressive to me given the circumstances e.g. news, sentiment, production numbers. A constant up move slow and steady with resistance levels you could point at and a rally once overthrown. No whack the mole and other strange movements not related to news or fundamentals.

Its a testimony of how strong the bulls indeed are. Its often overlooked that the shorts can only win if they manage to create the impression within the bulls that they need to sell. They are powerless if the market decides that Tesla at this prices is a good deal.

To summarize, we do know now for a fact that the instruments Wall Street has given shorts to influence the stocks price has an undeniable artificial negative effect. For me it should be eliminated as it does not help to determine the true value the market considers a company has at all but creates an artificial wrong impression that is misleading.

If the SEC ever wanted to protect often not very well informed small Retail investors they should make sure they take that tool out of the hands of shorts forever.
 
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How reliable are these numbers when compared to north America markets opening the next day?

It's not an issue of reliability, the exchanges are linked. However, shorts sell in the pre-market in New York, not in Frankfurt.

NASDAQ pre-market trading opens at 4:00 am ET (New York), while Frankfut opens earlier. Once markets are open in both places, the prices will tend to sychronize.
 
If the SEC ever wanted to protect often not very well informed small Retail investors they should make sure they take that tool out of the hands of shorts.

Yeah, haha, the SEC makes their fee on selling shares, not on buying them. So they will be somewhat disinclined to take a 60% pay cut just to protect some TSLA longs. ;)
 
f the circuit breaker rule was indeed in effect yesterday I am afraid that the short army will unleash another attack this morning to try to gain back some of their losses.

Yes, Friday's post-drop (post circuit-breaker) price action and yesterday's trading is an excellent demonstration of the kind of market manipulation that shorts bring to public markets.

Yesterday they were still able to short the stock, just not actively, they weren't able to fake selling pressure, actual selling pressure had to come from genuine bears who own the stock and are investors and want to sell.

The 'uptick rule' should be the standard rule for short positions in all advanced markets, combined with the requirement to report and publish all short positions above 0.1% of outstanding shares or so, this would take away two key tools of market manipulation that "activist shorts" are using to magnify volatility to the detriment of investors: secrecy and pressure-selling price manipulation tactics.
 
Well thats kind of a self fulfilling prophecy... so nice work :(
I noticed the insane mega-short troll mark Spiegel is quoted by the financial times, as though he has any clue whatsoever about the stock, and is in any way impartial. Really surprised the FT did not counterbalance it with 'but he would say that, because his entire net worth is wrapped up in a huge bid to try and force them out of business'.

I stupidly expect financial news to be unbiased :(
 
You didn't see this manipulation yesterday. I see correlation with Fud and short attack.
Manipulation Frankfurt.png
 
This morning's drop is because Nomura downgraded Tesla from $400 to $300 - they believe that Musk's recent behaviour has damaged the brand and reduced demand because consumers will worry that Tesla will not survive in the long term.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/NomuraInstinet+Downgrades+Tesla+Motors+(TSLA)+to+Neutral,+Says+Equity+is+No+Longer+Investable/14594780.html

Nomura is essentially saying that the demand may go down because the brand may suffer caused by Management behavior.

That indicates people do buy a Tesla mainly because of the brand and other factors do not play a main role in the decision.

If we remember the backlog and worldwide excitement than my question is not any more what Elon smokes but Nomura...
 
Nomura is essentially saying that the demand may go down because the brand may suffer caused by Management behavior.

That indicates people do buy a Tesla mainly because of the brand and other factors do not play a main role in the decision.

If we remember the backlog and worldwide excitement than my question is not any more what Elon smokes but Nomura...

Well, my sample size of n=1 (my wife) tells, Musk's behaviour can have some effect. Buying a car is affected by many things. Brand is one and rather important.
 
:D:D:D:D
Well thats kind of a self fulfilling prophecy... so nice work :(
I noticed the insane mega-short troll mark Spiegel is quoted by the financial times, as though he has any clue whatsoever about the stock, and is in any way impartial. Really surprised the FT did not counterbalance it with 'but he would say that, because his entire net worth is wrapped up in a huge bid to try and force them out of business'.

I stupidly expect financial news to be unbiased :(
And WHO owns said FT (see last post). Haaa So! P.s. Park it next to the Graun'. (" the most insufferable news paper on the planet" ) :D
 
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Well, my sample size of n=1 (my wife) tells, Musk's behaviour can have some effect. Buying a car is affected by many things. Brand is one and rather important.

We did a survey a while back, and only 6% of respondents chose branding as one of the three reasons they want to buy a Tesla. According to the data, it's a factor, but down the list.
 
I'm kinda tired of all this bs...
Do we have data of Audi sales after their CEO has been arrested?
How come this doesn't worry WS (but Elon not inhaling is)?

I'm all for Elon taking a vacancy (at least a week, maybe he can stay at home with his 5 children, or somewhere else in the world, sleep a little, eat healthy, reconnect with his loved ones, care and be cared), but BS is BS.
 
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